Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence

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Summary: Four main research chal-

lenges are posed by the intersection of

climate change, broader environmental

hazards and migration: How has the rela-

tionship between migration and the envi-

ronment been conceptualized? To what

extent has it been possible to measure

the scale of environmental migration?

What evidence is available regarding

the impact of environmental migration?

What research has been conducted on

policy responses? Several factors make

it difcult to predict the likely scale of

environmental migration or its impacts.

First, it is difcult to disaggregate the role

of climate change from other economic,

political and social factors driving migra-

tion. Second, migration data are lacking

in developing countries that are likely to

be most vulnerable to climate change.

Third, the lack of data is largely due to

the absence of an adequate denition to

cover migrants affected by environmentalfactors under international law. Fourth,

climate modeling techniques have not

yet begun to account adequately for the

impact of individual choice, the potential

for international action and the variability

of future emissions and meteorologi-

cal scenarios. In advancing the future

research agenda, it is essential from the

outset not to focus solely on the poten-

tially negative consequences of migra-

tion. Migration can contribute to adapta-

tion to climate change, serving as an

important strategy to reduce vulnerabilityto climate change, increase resilience

and enable households to accumulate

assets. We need much more evidence

to demonstrate these impacts and to

inform policy.

1744 R Street NWWashington, DC 20009 1 202 745 3950F 1 202 265 1662E [email protected]

Study Team on Climate-Induced Migration

Recent estimates suggesting that be-tween 200 million to 1 billion peoplecould be displaced by climate change

during the next 40 years have uelledthe perception that climate change islikely to be associated with a new erao mass migration. Although severalexperts have dismissed such guresas, at best, guesswork (IPCC, 2007)these estimates have helped ocuspolicymakers attention on the subjecto migration and climate change, andhave led to calls or better data andresearch on the issue.

Te main purpose o this paper is toreview briey existing research onthe likely impact o environmentalchange on the movement o people.Te topic o environmental migrationis not a new topic o research. As earlyas 1990, the Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change (IPCC, 1990: 20)warned that the greatest single impacto climate change could be on humanmigration with millions o peopledisplaced by shoreline erosion, coastalooding and severe drought. In 1992the International Organization orMigration (IOM) published a reporton Migration and Environment inwhich it is stated:

Large numbers o people aremoving as a result o environmen-tal degradation that has increased

dramatically in recent years. Tenumber o such migrants couldrise substantially as larger areas o

the earth become uninhabitable asa result o climate change (IOM,1992).

However, until two or three yearsago, the topic o migration and theenvironment was largely ignored bymigration experts and policymak-ers. Indeed, in the 2005 report o theGlobal Commission on InternationalMigration, there is barely a mention othe topic.

Part o this neglect may be due to themarginal consensus over the yearsamong researchers about whetheror not environmental migration is adistinct orm o migration worthy ospecial study. Tere has been con-siderable disagreement about how toconceptualize the relationship betweenmigration and climate change andabout research methodologies to beused to investigate the topic urther.

While it is recognized that there is atwo-way relationship between migra-tion and the environment, the mainemphasis in this review is on researchon the implications o environmen-tal change or migration, rather thanvice versa. Tis paper is based on thendings o a recent book published by

Migration, the Environment and ClimateChange: Assessing the Evidence

by Frank Laczko

June 2010


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IOM titledMigration, Environment and Climate Change: As-

sessing the Evidence (IOM 2009). Given limitations o space,the paper ocuses on our main research challenges whichare discussed in the IOM book:

1. How has the relationship between migration and theenvironment been conceptualized?

2. o what extent has it been possible to measure thescale o environmental migration?

3. What evidence is available regarding the impact oenvironmental migration?

4. What research has been conducted on policy re-sponses?

Te paper is not limited to a ocus on climate change butlooks more broadly at the range o environmental actorswhich impact on migration. Tis is because many changesin the environment, such as earthquakes, which are not nec-essarily linked to climate change, have an enormous impacton the movement o people.

Conceptualizing the relationship between migration and

the environment

Te migration and environment research literature tends toall into two broad and extreme categories:

1. work done by minimalists who suggest that theenvironment is only a contextual actor in migrationdecisions and

2. work done by maximalists who claim that theenvironment causes people to be orced to leave theirhomes (Fraser et. al., 2008).

Although many experts accept that climate change is aactor which can impact the decision to migrate, the con-ceptualization o this actor as a primary cause o orceddisplacement has been questioned (Black, 2001). While theenvironment can be a driver o migration, more oen thannot a complex combination o causes determines whetheror not people move. Given the multiple causes o migration,

drawing a clear line between voluntary and orced move-

ments is not always straightorward.

Tis disagreement on the role o the environment in induc-ing migration is reected in urther disagreement overterminology. It is common to describe those who moveor environmental reasons as climate change reugees or asenvironmentally displaced persons and to characterize suchmovements as orced migration. Popular with the media,the term environmental reugees has been used to de-scribe the whole category o people who migrate because oenvironmental actors. Tis broad denition, while evokingan image that has brought public attention to the issue, is

not suciently precise to describe all the various types omovements which may be linked to environmental actors.In some situations, such as natural disasters, people mayhave little choice but to move, and may be orcibly dis-placed. In other situations where environmental change isgradual, movement is more likely to be voluntary as peoplehave time to weigh their options, and environmental changemay be one o many actors inducing them to move.

It is perhaps more useul, instead, to think in terms o acontinuum:

Population mobility is probably best viewed as be-ing arranged along a continuum ranging rom totallyvoluntary migration to totally orced migration, veryew decisions are entirely orced or voluntary (Hugo,1996).

In the absence o an internationally agreed denition, IOMdeveloped a working denition in 2007 which denes envi-ronmental migration as ollows:

Environmental migrants are persons or groups o per-sons who, or reasons o sudden or progressive changein the environment that adversely afects their lives orliving conditions, are obliged to leave their habitualhomes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or per-manently, and who move either within their country orabroad.

Te purpose o this denition is to try to encompass popu-lation movement or displacement, whether it be temporary

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or permanent, internal or cross border, and regardless

o whether it is voluntary or orced, or due to sudden orgradual environmental change.

Measuring the scale of environmental migration

How many people have been migrating in recent years dueto environmental change and how many more people arelikely to migrate in the uture? Tere are no rm answers tothese questions, but it is assumed that most o the migrationthat will occur will be mainly within those developing coun-tries which are likely to be most afected by climate change.oday, approximately three-quarters o all migrants move

within borders, and only 37 per cent o migration in theworld is rom developing to developed countries (UNDP,2009).

Probably, the best available data on environmental migra-tion are data on the numbers o persons displaced as a resulto natural disasters. In 2008, or example, it has been calcu-lated that 20 million people were displaced by sudden-onsetclimate-related extreme weather events (OCHA-IDMC,2009). However, even in the case o natural disasters wherebetter data exists, we have no global data on migratorymovements related to natural disasters (Hugo, 2008). At

best, there are estimates that can be derived rom displace-ment data relating to particular crises (Naik, 2009). Despitethe act that the reported number o disasters has doubledover the last two decades (Basher, 2008) we have not seena major impact on international migration ows, as muchdisplacement is short distance and temporary. Te sunamiwhich hit Asia in 2004 claimed the lives o an estimated200,000 persons and displaced around 400,000 others, yetthe vast majority o those who were orced to move relo-cated to nearby areas (Naik et al., 2008).

Extreme environmental events such as cyclones, hurricanes,earthquakes, tsunamis and tornadoes tend to capture themedia headlines, but gradual changes in the environmentmay have a much greater impact on the movement opeople in the uture. For example, during the period 1979 to2008, 718 million people were afected by storms comparedto 1.6 billion people afected by droughts (EM DA, 2009).Unortunately, however, there is relatively little inormationon the links between numbers afected by gradual changesin the environment and migration.

Reasons for lack of statistics

Tere are several actors which make it dicult to predictthe likely scale o environmental migration (Brown, 2008).First, it is dicult, as mentioned earlier, to disaggregatethe role o climate change rom other economic, politicaland social actors which drive migration. Second, thereis a basic lack o migration data available in developingcountries which are likely to be most vulnerable to climatechange. For example, in a recent report, the Commissionon International Migration Data or Development Researchand Policy noted that many countries still do not includebasic questions about migration in their censuses. Even in

the ongoing 2010 census, several countries including Japan,Mexico, Korea, the Philippines, and Egypt, do not includequestions on the place o birth. One-third o countries alsodo not ask about previous residence in another country(CGD, 2009).

Tird, the lack o data is largely due to the absence o anadequate denition to cover migrants afected by naturaldisasters under international law.

Fourth, it is extremely dicult to predict the impact oclimate change. Climate modeling techniques have not yet

even begun to account adequately or the impact o indi-vidual choice, the potential or international action and thevariability o uture emissions and meteorological scenarios(Brown, 2008).

Evidence of the impact of environmental migration

Tere is relatively little reliable data on the impact o en-vironmental migration because there has been relativelylittle empirical research on this topic. Tere are many goodstudies on the impact o migrants on environments, onland use, deorestation, and so orth, but there is almost noreliable evidence on the efects o environmental actors,controlling or other inuences, on out-migration, particu-larly rom rural areas (Bilsborrow, 2009). In a review oliterature over the past 50 years, o 321 publications, includ-ing 153 articles in peer-reviewed journals and 29 books,only two articles were ound which investigate the efects oenvironmental actors on out-migration based on quantita-tive multivariate methods (Moriniere, 2009).

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Relatively ew social scientists who ocus on migration

and rely on data rom censuses and household surveys have been engaged in data collection or research on theenvironment (IOM, 2009). Moreover, the little researchthat has been conducted on the efects o environmentalchange on migration has tended to ocus on the negativeconsequences o environmental migration. Few studies haveexplored how migration can be a coping or adaptation strat-egy or how migration can relieve pressure on environmen-tally degraded areas (IOM, 2009), as suggested in studies incountries such as El Salvador, Jamaica and the Philippinesthat have ound that migrants respond to extreme envi-ronmental events by increasing their remittances (UNDP,

2009).

Research on Policy Responses

Research on policy responses to environmental migra-tion is in its inancy. Tere has been little analysis o whatstandards, policies or programmes are most appropriateor managing this category o internal or internationalmigration ows (Leighton, 2009). As most environmentalmigration is expected to occur within and between develop-ing countries in the South, there has been little incentive orpolicymakers in destination countries in the North to adjust

their immigration policies. Few destination countries haveelaborated specic policy measures to respond to environ-mental migration, and none currently have a pro-activepolicy to resettle those afected by environmental disasters(Martin, 2009). At best, policies are ad hoc, with somecountries taking measures to allow migrants to remaintemporarily in the destination country when disasters occurat home.

A recent review o current policy responses in destinationand origin countries nds that there is also little coher-ence between environmental change and migration policies(Martin, 2009). For example, ew o the major middle-in-come developing countries which are major source coun-tries or migrants, such as Mexico, India and China, haveincluded any reerence to migration in their climate changeadaptation plans. Although many countries clearly lackadequate resources to respond to the growing number onatural disasters, the international community has at leastestablished a policy ramework or responding to emergen-cies. On the other hand, a strategy and policy ramework

to address the impact o gradual environmental change is

largely lacking, and would require linking development, en-vironment and migration policies in a much more coherentmanner (World Bank, 2009: 25).

Analysis o policy responses to environmental migra-tion has also tended to ocus much more on responses toextreme environmental events rather than on how best tomanage the impact o gradual changes in the environmenton population mobility. Research tends to ocus on ques-tions such as how best to provide emergency assistance tothose who are displaced, how to reduce disaster risk andhow to improve the legal and normative ramework or

the protection o the displaced. A number o studies havealso discussed whether there is a case or introducing anew set o legal instruments to protect the environmentallydisplaced. Zetter (2009), in a review o this discussion,concludes that there is little opportunity or need to createan entirely new set o legal instruments to address environ-mental migration. Tere is much scope within existing legalrameworks to provide protection to those who are orcedto move or environmental reasons, but there is a criticallack o capacity in many states to implement existing rame-works and it is here where there is a need or much moreresearch.

Frank Laczko is the Head of Research at the International Organization for Migration

(IOM), Geneva.

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) is an intergovernmental organization

committed to the principle that humane and orderly migration benefts migrants and

society.

PHOTO CREDIT: Floods in Ifo refugee camp, Dadaab,Kenya, UNHCR: B. Bannon, Decem-

ber 2006.

References

All citations may be ound inMigration, Environment andClimate Change: Assessing the Evidence, edited by FrankLaczko and Christine Aghazarm, IOM, Geneva, 2009.

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Study team members

Susan Martin, Institute or the Study o International Migration, Schoolo Foreign Service, Georgetown University, Washington, DC (Co-Chair)

Koko Warner, Institute or Environment and Human Security, United

Nations University, Bonn, Germany (Co-Chair)

Jared Banks and Suzanne Sheldon, Bureau or Population, Reugees andMigration, U.S. Department o State, Washington, DC

Regina Bauerochse Barbosa, Economy and Employment Department,Sector Project Migration and Development, German echnicalCooperation (GZ), Eschborn, Germany

Alexander Carius, Moira Feil, and Dennis nzler, Adelphi Research,Berlin, Germany

Joel Charny, Reugees International, Washington, DC

Dimitria Clayton, Ministry or Intergenerational Afairs, Family, Womenand Integration, State o North Rhine-Westphalia, Dsseldor, Germany

Sarah Collinson, Overseas Development Institute, London, UnitedKingdom

Peter Croll, Ruth Vollmer, Andrea Warnecke, Bonn International Centeror Conversion, Bonn, Germany

Frank Laczko, International Organization or Migration, Geneva,Switzerland

Agustin Escobar Latapi, Centro de Investigaciones y Estudios Superioresen Antropologa Social (CIESAS), Guadalajara, Mexico

Michelle Leighton, Center or Law and Global Justice, University o SanFrancisco, San Francisco, Caliornia and Munich Re Foundation-UNUChair in Social Vulnerability

Philip Martin, University o Caliornia, Migration Dialogue, Davis,

Caliornia

Heather McGray, World Resources Institute, Washington, DC

Lorenz Petersen, Climate Change askorce, German echnicalCooperation (GZ), Eschborn, Germany

Aly andian, Groupe dEtudes et de Recherches sur les Migrations(GERMS), Gaston Berger University, Senegal

Agnieszka Weinar, Directorate-General Justice, Freedom and Security,European Commission, Brussels, Belgium

Astrid Ziebarth, German Marshall Fund o the United States, Berlin,Germany.

List of papers

Developing Adequate Humanitarian Responsesby Sarah Collinson

Migration, the Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence

by Frank Laczko

Climate Change and Migration: Key Issues or Legal Protection oMigrants and Displaced Personsby Michelle Leighton

Climate Change, Agricultural Development, and Migrationby Philip Martin

Climate Change and International Migrationby Susan F. Martin

Climate Change, Migration and Adaptationby Susan F. Martin

Climate Change, Migration and Conict: Receiving Communities underPressure?by Andrea Warnecke, Dennis nzler and Ruth Vollmer

Assessing Institutional and Governance Needs Related to Environmental

Change and Human Migrationby Koko Warner

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Transatlantic Study TeamsTe GMF Immigration and Integration Programs ransatlantic Study eams link the transatlantic debate on inter-national migration ows with its consequences or sending and receiving regions. Trough compiling existing data,policy analysis, and dialogue with policymakers, selected study teams gather acts, convene leading opinion leaderson both sides o the Atlantic, promote open dialogue, and help to advance the policy debate. Study teams are chosenby a competitive selection process, based on the overall quality o their proposal, its policy relevance, institutionalstrength, sustainability, and potential or synergies. Te ransatlantic Study eam 2009/2010 is investigating the impacto climate change on migration patterns. Environmental deterioration, including natural disasters, rising sea level,and drought problems in agricultural production, could cause millions o people to leave their homes in the comingdecades. Led by Dr. Susan F. Martin, Georgetown University, and Dr. Koko Warner, UN University, the team consists oscholars, policymakers and practitioners rom the migration and environmental communities.

Te German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF) is a non-partisan American public policy and grantmakinginstitution dedicated to promoting better understanding and cooperation between North America and Europe ontransatlantic and global issues. GMF does this by supporting individuals and institutions working in the transatlan-tic sphere, by convening leaders and members o the policy and business communities, by contributing research andanalysis on transatlantic topics, and by providing exchange opportunities to oster renewed commitment to the trans-atlantic relationship. In addition, GMF supports a number o initiatives to strengthen democracies. Founded in 1972through a gi rom Germany as a permanent memorial to Marshall Plan assistance, GMF maintains a strong presenceon both sides o the Atlantic. In addition to its headquarters in Washington, DC, GMF has seven oces in Europe: Ber-lin, Bratislava, Paris, Brussels, Belgrade, Ankara, and Bucharest.

Te Institute or the Study o International Migration is based in the School o Foreign Service at Georgetown Universi-ty. Stafed by leading experts on immigration and reugee policy, the Institute draws upon the resources o Georgetown

University aculty working on international migration and related issues on the main campus and in the law center. Itconducts research and convenes workshops and conerences on immigration and reugee law and policies. In addition,the Institute seeks to stimulate more objective and well-documented migration research by convening research sympo-sia and publishing an academic journal that provides an opportunity or the sharing o research in progress as well asnished projects.

Te UN University established by the UN General Assembly in 1973, is an international community o scholars en-gaged in research, advanced training and the dissemination o knowledge related to pressing global problems. Activi-ties ocus mainly on peace and conict resolution, sustainable development and the use o science and technology toadvance human welare. Te Universitys Institute or Environment and Human Security addresses risks and vulner-abilities that are the consequence o complex environmental hazards, including climate change, which may afect sus-tainable development. It aims to improve the in-depth understanding o the cause efect relationships to nd possibleways to reduce risks and vulnerabilities. Te Institute is conceived to support policy and decision makers with authori-tative research and inormation.

Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence

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