Migration and Educational Attainment by Degree Type among...
Transcript of Migration and Educational Attainment by Degree Type among...
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Oregon and STEM+
Migration and Educational Attainment by Degree Type among Young Oregonians
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
2Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
What is STEM and STEM+?
• STEM refers to college degrees where graduates majored in Science, Technology, Engineering or Math
• STEM+ refers to STEM majors plusBusiness and Health• Better job opportunities
• Rough approximation of so-called “good” degrees
3Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Focus of Report
•Young Oregonians and Migrants•About half of migrants are 20- and
30-somethings• 1 in 4 are young college graduates
•Root-setting years matter for longer-run economic development
4Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Most Migrants are Young
• Approx. half of all migrants are 20-and 30-somethings
• Factors that increase migration:• Single, college
educated, not employed, youth, higher income
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2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Children(0-17)
CollegeAge
(18-24)
Root-Setting(25-34)
PeakWorking(35-44)
PeakEarning(45-54)
LateCareer(55-64)
Retirees(65+)
Who Moves to Oregon?Domestic Net Migration by Age, 2014
Data: American Community Survey | Source: Census, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
5Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Root-Setting Years Matter
• Most people settle down, begin their careers in earnest, get married, have kids, and buy a house
• Vital for longer run economic development, as once settled, people much less likely to move
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30,000
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Age
Oregon Population by Age, 2015
Source: Oregon Office of Economic AnalysisSource: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Root-SettingYears
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What Influences Migration Rates?• Factors leading to
higher probability of migrating:• Youth
• Single
• Not employed
• Lower income
• Higher educational attainment
• 1 in 4 migrants to Oregon are in their 20s or 30s and hold at least a Bachelor’s
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
All Other STEM+
HS or Less SomeCollege
College Graduate
Educated Influx into OregonMigration Rates to Oregon by Educational Attainment among 20-39 Year Olds, 2014
Data: Net domestic + international migrants divided by resident populationSource: Census, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
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STEM+ Trends in Oregon
8Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Majority of Migrants are STEM+
• Young U.S. college graduate population is 52% STEM+, 48% All Other
• Since 2009, 55% of Oregon’s net migrants hold STEM+ degrees
• Oregon’s mix is well balanced, what makes the state unique is the strong overall gains
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Young Migrants in OregonNet Migration, 20-39 Year Olds, Bachelor's or Higher
STEM+ Degrees All Other Degrees
STEM+: Science, Technology, Engineering, Math plus Business and Health DegreesSource: IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
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Oregon is a National Leader
AL
AK
AZAR CA
CO
CTDE
DC
FLGA HIID
ILIN
IAKS
KYLA
ME
MD
MA
MIMN
MSMOMT NE
NV
NH
NJ
NMNY NC
ND
OHOK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TNTX
UT
VTVA
WA
WV
WI
WY
-1%
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-2% -1% 0% 1% 2%
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STEM+ Migration Rate
College Educated Migration by StateMigration Rates by Degree Type, 20-39 Year Olds, 2014
Oregon ranks 6th best nationally inmigration among all degree types,12th best among STEM+ degreesand 7th best among all other.
Calculation: Net migration by degree type divided by total population 20-39 years oldSource: IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
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26th
12th
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16th12th
24th
8th 7th1
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ResidentPopulation
No. of NetMigrants
Migration Rate
Young Educated Migrants and Oregon20-39 Years Old, 1 = Largest or Fastest
All Degrees STEM+ Other
Data: 2014 ACS, All 50 states plus DC, Education Attainment of Bachelor's or MoreSource: IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Oregon is a Migration Destination
• Oregon is a medium sized state and the local college educated population is too
• However migration trends are strong in both the actual number of net migrants, but particularly so in migration rates
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Education and the Labor Market
12Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Educated Influx into Oregon
• Migrants have higher educational attainment than the overall population
• In- and out-migrant attainment is similar, but actual number of in-migrants is larger than out-migrants
• Net migration increases Oregon’s educational attainment
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10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2007 2010 2014
Educated Influx into OregonShare with Bachelor's or More, 25 Years and Older
Note: Domestic migrants only | Source: Census, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
In-migrants
Oregon Population
Out-migrants
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Higher Participation and Employment Rates
• Labor force participation rates and employment increase with educational attainment
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20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Less ThanHS
HighSchool
SomeCollege
Degree,All Others
Degree,STEM+
Educational Attainment
Educational Attainment and Employment25-39 Year Old Oregonians, 2014
Labor Force Participation Employment-Population
Source: IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
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But What Type of Jobs?
• A Degree Job is an individual occupation that requires a Bachelor’s or more for an entry-level hire, per U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics definitions
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Less ThanHS
High School SomeCollege
Degree, AllOthers
Degree,STEM+
Educational Attainment
What Do Young Oregonians Do?25-39 Year Olds, 2014
Not Employed Employed in Non-Degree Job Employed in Degree Job
Source: BLS, IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
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Average Wages are Higher
• Research has found that every year of additional schooling results in higher wages
• STEM+ graduates earn a premium even above other college graduates
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Less ThanHS
HighSchool
SomeCollege
Degree,All Others
Degree,STEM+
Educational Attainment
Average Wages by Educational Attainment25-39 Year Old Oregonians, All Workers (PT and FT), 2014
Source: IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
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Barriers to Increasing Educational Attainment, STEM+ or Otherwise
17Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Student Loan Debt
• Oregonian student loan debt totaled $15.6b in 2014q4• Equivalent to 9.3% of
statewide total personal income
• Default rate 11.5%• Median state: 11.2%
• Worst outcomes for those who don’t graduate yet incur debt burden
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2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Student Loan Debt as Share of Personal Income
Source: BEA, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Oregon
U.S.
For More: http://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2013/03/14/education-and-student-debt/
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Demographics
• Overall demographics flat for college age population• Millennials aging
• Easy demographic gains are over, must rely upon increasing educational attainment within stable population cohort
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450,000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
College Age Population in Oregon18-24 Year Olds
Forecast -->
Source: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
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State Comparisons
Young STEM+ Migration, 2014Migration of 20-39 Year Olds with STEM+ Bachelor’s or More,
Share of Resident Population 20-39 Years Old
< 0% 0% - .19% .2% - .49% > .5%
STEM+: Science, Technology, Engineering, Math plus Business and Health
Source: IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
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Pacific Northwest Migration
2nd
6th
42nd
45th
50th
-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2%
Washington
Oregon
Idaho
Montana
Alaska
All College Educated Migrants
3rd
7th
36th
29th
50th
-2% -1% 0% 1%
All Other Degrees
Migration of 20-39 Year Olds with Bachelor’s or More, Share of Resident Population 20-39 Years Old
3rd
12th
42nd
47th
50th
-2% -1% 0% 1%
STEM+ Degrees
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Pacific Northwest Job Type
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30%
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50%
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70%
NotEmployed
Non-DegreeJob
Degree Job NotEmployed
Non-DegreeJob
Degree Job
All Other Degrees STEM+ Degrees
What Young College Educated Northwesterns Do25-39 Year Olds, Bachelors' or More, 2014
Alaska Idaho Montana Oregon Washington
Source: BLS, IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
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Metro Comparisons
24Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Previous Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Work (Pt 1)
• Among largest metros in country, Portland has a below average share of STEM+ degrees and an above average share of all other degrees, among the working age population
http://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2014/12/11/education-migration-and-the-service-class/
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Previous Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Work (Pt 2)
• Looking at in-migration rates across major metros, Portland is a leader for both STEM+ and all other degrees
http://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2014/12/11/education-migration-and-the-service-class/
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Summary
• Root-setting age households are vital for regional economic development
• Oregon, along with its Left Coast peers, is a national leader in attracting young, college educated migrants
• STEM+ migrants are the majority into Oregon
• STEM+ graduates have higher labor force participation rates and earn higher average wages
• Combined, all of the above bodes well for Oregon’s economic future
27Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Contact
www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com
@OR_EconAnalysis
(503) 378-4052