YEAR 12/13 GCE ADVANCED LEVEL (Linear)Edexcel 9GEO SYLLABUS - GEOGRAPHY

COURSE HANDBOOK

“Without geography, you're nowhere".Michael

Palin

The world's population is expected to rise from the current 6.5 billion to 9.1 billion by 2050 (UN)

For each facet of humanness - rationality or irrationality, faith, emotion, artistic genius, or political prowess -there is a geography. For each geographical interpretation of the earth, there are implicit assumptions about the meaning of humanness...the common concern is terrestrial dwelling; ‘humanus’ literally means "earth dweller."

Anne Buttimer.

NAME ______________________________ This qualification is linear. Linear means that students will sit all their exams and submit all theirnon-exam assessment at the end of Year 13.

MISSION STA TEMENT

We aim to offer you a challenging and relevant course of study, whether as a foundation

for

further study in geography in higher education or as a contribution to your knowledge

and understanding of the world in which you live. We address the stages and

processes which are specific to geography and their relevance to contemporary

problems and issues. Geography acts as bridge between the human and natural

sciences. We aim to help you develop an understanding of the inter-relationships

between people and their environments, and of the opportunities, challenges and

constraints that face people in different places and environments and for you to

clarify and develop your own values and attitudes in relation to contemporary

geographical issues and questions.

Content and assessment overviewThe Pearson Edexcel Level 3 Advanced GCE in Geography consists of three externally- examined papers and one coursework component. Students must complete all assessment in May/June in any single year.

Paper 1 (Paper code: 9GE0/01)Written examination: 2 hours and 15 minutes 30% of the qualification105 marksContent overview1

● Area of study 1, Topic 1: Tectonic Processes and Hazards● Area of study 1, Topic 2: Landscape Systems, Processes and Change – including optional

sub-topics from which students choose one from two: 2A: Glaciated Landscapes and Change or 2B: Coastal Landscapes and Change

● Area of study 3, Topic 5: The Water Cycle and Water Insecurity● Area of study 3, Topic 6: The Carbon Cycle and Energy SecurityAssessment overviewAn externally-assessed written examination comprising three sections.Section A relates to Topic 1: Tectonic Processes and Hazards.Section B relates to Topic 2: Landscape Systems, Processes and Change. Students answer questions on either Topic 2A: Glaciated Landscapes and Change or Topic 2B: Coastal Landscapes and Change.Section C relates to Topic 5: The Water Cycle and Water Insecurity and Topic 6: The Carbon Cycle and Energy Security.The examination may include short open, open response and resource-linked questions. The examination includes 12-mark and 20-mark extended writing questions. Calculators may be used.Paper 2 (Paper code: 9GE0/02)Written examination: 2 hours and 15 minutes 30% of the qualification105 marksContent overview1

● Area of study 2, Topic 3: Globalisation● Area of study 2, Topic 4: Shaping Places – including optional sub-topics from which students

choose one from two: 4A Regenerating Places or 4B Diverse Places● Area of study 4, Topic 7: Superpowers● Area of study 4, Topic 8: Global Development and Connections – including optional sub-topics

from which students choose one from two: 8A Health, Human Rights and Intervention or8B Migration, Identity and Sovereignty

Assessment overviewAn externally-assessed written examination comprising three sections.Section A relates to Topics 3 and 7: Globalisation / Superpowers.Section B relates to Topic 4: Shaping Places. Students answer questions on either Topic 4A: Regenerating Places or Topic 4B: Diverse Places.Section C relates to Topic 8: Global Development and Connections. Students answer questions on either Topic 8A: Health, Human Rights and Intervention or Topic 8B: Migration, Identity and Sovereignty.The examination may include short open, open response and resource-linked questions. The examination includes 12-mark and 20-mark extended writing questions. Calculators may be

used.

Paper 3 (*Paper code: 9GE0/03)Written examination: 2 hours and 15 minutes 20% of the qualification70 marksContent overviewThe specification contains three synoptic themes within the compulsory1 content areas:● Players● Attitudes and actions● Futures and uncertainties.The synoptic investigation will be based on a geographical issue within a place-based context that links to the three synoptic themes and is rooted in two or more of the compulsory content areas.Assessment overviewAn externally-assessed written examination comprising three sections. A resource booklet will contain information about the geographical issue.Sections A, B and C all draw synoptically on knowledge and understanding from compulsory content drawn from different parts of the course.The examination may include short open, open response and resource-linked questions. The examination includes 8-mark, 18-mark and 24-mark extended writing questions. Calculators may be used.Coursework: Independent Investigation (9GE0/04)Non-examined assessment 20% of the qualification70 marksContent overview● The student defines a question or issue for investigation, relating to the compulsory or

optional content. The topic may relate to any aspect of geography contained within the specification

● The student’s investigation will incorporate fieldwork data (collected individually or as part of a group) and own research and/or secondary data

● The fieldwork, which forms the focus and context of the individual investigation, may be either human, physical or integrated physical-human

● The investigation report will evidence independent analysis and evaluation of data, presentation of data findings and extended writing

● Students will be expected to show evidence that they have used both quantitative and qualitative data to support their independent investigation as appropriate to the particular environment and/or location.

Assessment overview● The investigation report is internally assessed and externally moderated.● The student will produce a written report of 3000–4000 words.

Geographical skillsCompetence in using geographical skills should be developed during study of compulsory and optional topics, not as a separate theme or topic. While the relative balance of quantitative and qualitative methods and skills will differ between topics, students must be introduced to a roughly equal balance of quantitative and qualitative methods and skills across the specification as a whole. This specification requires students to use their prior knowledge and understanding of the geographical, mathematical and statistical skills required at GCSE. In addition, all of these skills listed below are compulsory and may be assessed across any of the areas of study.This specification requires students to:

● understand the nature and use of different types of geographical information, including qualitative and quantitative, primary and secondary, images, factual text and discursive/creative material, digital data, numerical and spatial data and innovative forms of data, including crowd-sourced and 'big data' and including dot maps, kite diagrams, linear and logarithmic scales, dispersion diagrams, aerial, oblique, ground, satellite images, GIS

● collect, analyse and interpret such information, and demonstrate the ability to understand and apply suitable analytical approaches for the different information types including, qualitative approaches such as coding and sampling and quantitative approaches such as measures of dispersion, measures of correlation and association from the following statistical tests: t-tests, Spearman’s rank, Chi-squared, Gini Co-efficient, Lorenz curve

● undertake informed and critical questioning of data sources, analytical methodologies, data reporting and presentation, including the ability to identify sources of error in data and to identify the misuse of data

● communicate and evaluate findings, draw well-evidenced conclusions informed by wider theory, and construct extended written argument about geographical matters.

This specification requires students to demonstrate all of the following skills.Qualitative data

use and understand a mixture of methodological approaches, including using interviews

interpret and evaluate a range of source material including textual and visual sources, such as oral accounts, newspapers, creative media, social media, aerial, oblique, ground photographs, sketches and drawings

understand the opportunities and limitations of qualitative techniques such as coding and sampling, and appreciate how they actively create particular geographical representations

understand the ethical and socio-political implications of collecting, studying and representing geographical data about human communities.

Quantitative dataa) understand what makes data geographical and the geospatial technologies (e.g.GIS) that are

used to collect, analyse and present geographical datab) demonstrate an ability to collect and to use digital, geo-located data, and to understand a

range of approaches to the use and analysis of such datac) use, interpret and analyse geographical information including dot maps, kite diagrams, linear

and logarithmic scales, dispersion diagrams, satellite images, GISd) understand the purposes and difference between the following and be able to use them in

appropriate contexts:i. descriptive statistics of central tendency and dispersion, including Gini Co-efficient and

Lorenz curveii. descriptive measures of difference and association from the following statistical tests: t-

tests, Spearman’s rank, chi-squared; inferential statistics and the foundations of relational statistics, including measures of correlation and lines of best fit on a scatter plot

iii. measurement, measurement errors, and sampli

Fieldwork skillsA Level students must undertake a minimum of four days of fieldwork. Centres will be required to provide evidence of this fieldwork in the form of a written fieldwork statement.Fieldwork must be carried out in relation to processes in both physical and human geography and must evidence all of the skills listed below.

A Level fieldwork skills requirementsFieldwork skill number

Fieldwork skill description

Students are required to:

1 research relevant literature sources and understand and write up the theoretical or comparative context for a research question

2 define the research questions which underpin field investigations3 demonstrate practical knowledge and understanding of field methodologies

appropriate to the investigation of core human and physical processes4 observe and record phenomena in the field and devise, implement and justify

practical approaches taken in the field, including frequency/timing of observation, sampling, and data collection approaches so that good quality data/ information can be collected

5 demonstrate knowledge and understanding of the techniques appropriate for analysing field data and information and for representing results, including GIS, and show ability to select suitable quantitative or qualitative approaches and to apply them

6 demonstrate the ability to interrogate and critically examine field data in order to comment on its accuracy and/or the extent to which it is representative, and use the experience to extend geographical understanding

7 show the ability to write up field results clearly and logically, using a range of presentation methods and apply existing knowledge, theory and concepts in order to understand field observations and make a well argued case

8 evaluate and reflect on fieldwork investigations, explain how the results relate to the wider context and show an understanding of the ethical dimensions of field research.

Assessment information

Paper 1 (Paper code: 9GE0/01)

● 2 hours and 15 minutes.105 marks. Three sections.● Section A: answer all questions.● Section B: answer either Question 2 (Glaciated Landscapes and Change) or

Question 3 (Coastal Landscapes and Change) in Section B.

● Section C: answer all questions.● The paper may include short open, open response, calculations and resource-linked

questions. The examination includes 12-mark and 20-mark extended writing questions.

● Calculators may be used in the examination.

Paper 2 (Paper code: 9GE0/02)

● 2 hours and 15 minutes.105 marks. Four sections.● Section A: answer all questions.● Section B: answer all questions.● Section C: answer either Question 3 (Regenerating Places) or Question 4

(Diverse Places).● Section D: answer either Question 5 (Health, Human Rights and

Intervention) or Question 6 (Migration, Identity and Sovereignty).● The paper may include short open, open response, calculations and resource-linked

questions. The examination includes 12-mark and 20-mark extended writing questions.

Content assessed

● Section A Globalisation.● Section B Superpowers.● Section C Shaping Places. This comprises two optional sub-topics from which

students choose one: 4A Regenerating Places or 4B Diverse Places.● Section D Global Development and Connections. This comprises two optional sub-

topics from which students choose one: 8A Health, Human Rights and Intervention or 8B Migration, Identity and Sovereignty.

Content assessed

● Section A: Tectonic Processes and Hazards.● Section B: Landscape Systems, Processes and Change. This includes two

optional sub-topics from which students choose one: 2A Glaciated Landscapes and Change or 2B Coastal Landscapes and Change .

● Section C: The Water Cycle and Water Insecurity and Topic 6: The Carbon Cycle and Energy Security.

Independent Investigation (Paper code: 9GE0/04)

● The student undertakes an independent investigation, producing a written report of 3000–4000 words.

● The student defines a question or issue relating to the compulsory or optional content.

● The student’s investigation will incorporate fieldwork data (collected individually or as part of a group) and own research and/or secondary data.

● The report will evidence independent analysis and evaluation of data, presentation of data findings and extended writing.

● The report is internally assessed and externally moderated.● The independent investigation report must be submitted at the end of the

course.● Centres must ensure that independent investigation reports submitted

Paper 3 (Paper code: 9GE0/03)

● 2 hours and 15 minutes. 70 marks. Three sections● Answer all questions.● The paper may include open response, calculations and resource-linked

questions. The examination includes 8-mark, 18-mark and 24-mark extended writing questions. Calculators may be used in the examination.

Content assessed

● Synoptic assessment of geographical skills, knowledge and understanding (within a place- based context) from compulsory content drawn from different parts of the course.

The following textbooks exist for the Edexcel A Level Geography course. It is recommended that you purchase a textbook from the list. In order to achieve the highest grades, you cannot just rely on the textbook as wider reading is essential to the course.

COURSE

Edexcel A Level Y2 Geography 2016 Active Book £18.54Publisher: Pearson

ISBN: 9781292139661

Edexcel A Level Y2 Geography 2016 Active Book £17.92Publisher: Pearson

ISBN: 9781292139661

Edexcel A level Geography Book 1 Third EditionSue Warn, Cameron Dunn, Simon Oakes, David Holmes, Kim Adams, Michael WitherickISBN: 9781471856

549£26.99

Edexcel A level Geography Book 2 Third EditionSue Warn, Cameron Dunn, Simon Oakes, David Holmes, Kim Adams, Michael WitherickISBN: 9781471856

532£26.99

Essential Maths Skills for AS/A-level Geography Paperback – 30 Sep 2016by Helen Harris 

£10.99ISBN: 978-1471863554

Geographical Skills for A Level Years 1 & 2 - for Edexcel Paperback – 29 Jan 2018£8.95

Publisher: Anforme Ltd (29 Jan. 2018) ISBN: 978-1780140841

JOURNALS

For up-to-date geographical research and case study information the school will, on many occasions, supply articles from the following online subscription magazines for you.

Geofile GeoFactsheets GeoActive Geography Review (Available on

subscription)

WEB SUPPORT

Below is a selection of some useful internet sites:

Population Reference Bureauwww.prb.org

Kay’s A Level sitehttp://www.geograp hy.btinternet.co.uk/

General Resources & Linkshttp: //www.geograp hy-site.co.uk/index.ht ml

Wide range of stats.http://www.nat ionmaster.com/

CIA Factbook – statistical country datahttp://www.cia.gov /cia/publications/factbook/

World data eg debt reliefhttp://www.worldbank. org/dat a/datab...atabyt opic.html

Generalh t tp:// ww w.ge o r e sources.co.u k /

Please add your own favourite website addresses below.

WEBSITE ADDRESS

EX A M INATI O N T E CHNI Q U E Throughout your studies you will be given either past questions or a set of specimen papers for the examination you’re sitting.• You should know what the layout of the question papers will be.• You should know which paper is when.• You should know what type of questions are likely to turn up.• You should know how much time will be allocated to each paper and work out how much to spend on each part of the paper. (Time management is important - never leave a question unanswered.)• Have a list of command words handy when you’re looking at examples of questions set.

I nter pret ing q uesti ons

Questions are instructions and if you ignore any part of a question you will lose marks. Here isan example of a question:

"Describe the distribution of the immigrant population in the city shown in Figure 1."

• Describe is a command word - it tells you how you should respond.• The ‘i mmigrant pop u latio n ’ identifies the subject or topic of the question. It tells you what to focus on.• The word dis t ribution is a subject qualifier - a precise instruction about the aspectrequired. The phrase ‘in t he ci t y s h own in Figu r e 1 ’ is also a subject qualifier (precise instruction). You must use this if your answer is to be relevant and gain full marks.

Command words in examinat io n quest ions

Right - you’ve worked hard all year, handed in your assignments on time and revised all of themodules in the specification/syllabus. Then you go into the exam, turn over the paper and misread the questions!• Students lose marks because they are busy trying to recall everything they know about a topic and forget to think about what the question is really asking for.

• Examiners try to set questions that are clear in what they ask for and can be answered by everyone who has followed the course and prepared properly for the exam. It shouldn’t be possible for a question to be interpreted in several ways.• Examiners use stock words or phrases in questions known as command words - these are the instructions to do something in a question. It i s i mp o r t a n t that you know what they m e an. • Pay attention to how many marks are given to a question. One short sentence can never gain8 marks!• Even when a question is only worth one or two marks, do answer in sentences.• Always use specialist geographical terms wherever possible in your answers.

Us ing the ma te rial you’ re given (dat a, graphs, maps, photographs)

The most important thing is to use any stimulus material included with your exam paper. It’sthere for a reason!

Maps: Quoting map evidence means giving a grid reference. If you’re asked for evidence of a vegetation type or an example of a residential area, then it can be appropriate to use a four figure reference (ie give a square or squares), but for a specific feature you will need to give a six-figure reference. Use the points of the compass (‘south west of’ or ‘in the northern halfof the extract’, not top/bottom/edge of map). Use the scale on the map to describe distances(the squares on an OS map at 1:25,000 or 1:50,000 are one kilometre).

Graphs: Take care to read the scale properly (a small see-through plastic ruler can be useful). Take note of the labels on the axes and the units used (eg if a hydrograph has litres per second ‘l/s’ for discharge, don’t write about ‘CUMECS’ - cubic metres per second).

Tables: Again, a ruler can be useful for accurate reading. Pay attention to labels and units of measurement used.

Newspaper cuttings: Here you have to sift out the material you need to answer the question. Ask yourself if it is a factual piece reporting events or an opinion piece commenting on events (e.g. an editorial). Is the source likely to be reliable or biased in some way?

Source: If the source of an article or data set is given, this could be useful information. Data from a campaigning group such as Greenpeace, the CPRE or Friends of the Earth needs to be treated differently from official government statistics. Be aware of the possibility of bias. Newspapers don’t have time to double-check research and data from opinion polls isn’t alwaysa true reflection of people’s views and intentions (sampling issues).

Pl a nn i ng a n swers

If you’re answering a question which requires an extended piece of writing, say more than four to six marks worth, then it pays to plan your answer out.• Planning gives your answer a sensible sequence.• Planning focuses on the question as asked.• Making a plan helps you to recall material and select from it.• A plan should help you to avoid writing ‘all you know’.• Score out your plan by putting a line through it when you’re finished with it.

C a se s tudies and ex a mples

Exam questions allow you to use studies you have made from the real world.• You need to know the geographical models and concepts and be able to apply them to the real world.• Check the syllabus/specification for any that you m u st know.You will get more marks if you really use the case studies you have studied.• You won’t get marks for saying ‘for example China’. You need detail.

Command words: A gloss ary™ Account... Give reasons for.™ Analyse... Break down the topic into parts and give an in-depth account. Comment.™ Annotate... Add labels.™ Assess... This is an evaluative question - weigh up the importance of the subject. Thismeans there are a number of possible explanations. You need to give the main ones and then say which you tend to go for.™ Briefly... Be concise and straightforward. Don’t spend much too much time on this part(but don’t list - sentences still required).™ Classify... Use classification in your answer (ie divide into groups or categories).™ Compare… What is wanted is a point by point identification of similarities and ofdifferences (‘compare’ includes looking at contrasts, while a command to ‘contrast’ means only looking for differences). Use comparative adjectives eg. larger than, smaller, more steep, less densely.™ Comment... Summarise the various points and give an opinion.™ Contrast... on its own, means only looking for differences.™ Decide … or make a decision … Here you are usually asked to compare different possiblesolutions to a problem. This means assessing the strengths and weaknesses of the alternatives. In the end, you have to decide which solution is best. Sometimes you may be asked to suggest how alternative solutions can be combined. It is important to make a cl e ar decision. Your decision may not be a perfect solution – but it should be the best from amongst the alternatives.™ Define ... Or explain the meaning of ... These words ask for a relatively short answer(check the marks given) – usually two or three sentences – where the precise meaning of the term is identified (usually doesn’t need an example/case study).™ Describe ... This is one of the most widely used command words. Unless the question says‘describe and explain’, don’t be t e mpted to exp l ain (just avoid writing ‘because’ in your answer).™ ‘Describe the characteristics of ...’ means what does the feature look like, eg in the caseof a landform - shape, dimensions, composition, location in relation to other features; for a population pyramid shape, dimensions, composition of cohorts, relation to other examples of pyramids.™ ‘Describe the changes in ...’ is often used with a graph or series of graphs (eg DTM).Accurate verbs are required, and using words like rapidly, steeply, gently, gradually. (One word to avoid is ‘steadily’ as any graph shape can be ‘steady’.)™ ‘Describe the trends in...’ means more of an overall picture is required – not a ‘blow byblow’ account of what the graph shows. Major exceptions to the trend should be included.™ ‘Describe the differences between ...’ means only differences are required – no credit is given for similarities or for descriptions of one of the items. Might best be done withindividual sentences each identifying a difference.

™ ‘Describe the relationship between ...’ means only the links between the two items are required You must identify and establish the link clearly.™ ‘Describe the distribution of ...’ mostly used with a map or set of maps. Describe the location of high concentrations of a variable together with significant low concentrations orisolated ‘islands’ within the distribution. Remember the idea is to describe the overall pattern.™ ‘Describe the effects of ...’ means a factual account of what has occurred, after or asa result of whatever the question has identified.™ Describe and comment on … This demands a higher level of response than just ‘describe…’.Usually the description is straightforward, with judgements about the description getting most of the marks.™ Discuss … Usually you are expected to build up an argument about an issue and to presentm o re t h an o n e si d e of the evidence with supporting examples. This creates a written debate identifying both positive and negative points and then you must reach a conclusion from the debate. You should both describe and explain. Try to create a balanced answer.™ ‘Discuss the extent to which …’ requires a judgement about the validity of the evidenceor outcome.™ ‘Discuss varying attitudes to …’ there is a variety of viewpoints (eg decision makers andothers affected) and priorities to be included in the answer.™ Evaluate … or assess … This is similar to the idea of ‘discuss’.™ Assess requires a statement of the overall quality or value of the feature/issue beingconsidered. Evaluate asks the candidate to give an overall statement of value.™ In both cases you need to st a te a view p oint , after consideration of the evidence. In bothcases your own judgement/opinion is wanted. Although an opinion cannot be marked incorrect, credit is given for the justification of the position you’ve taken up. It usually best not to adopt an extreme viewpoint (a balanced answer is best).™ Examine... Look closely.™ Explain … Give reasons or causes. Description is not enough (and may not be needed at all).Show an understanding of why or how something has occurred.™ Give an explanatory (or reasoned) account of … or describe and explain... This is acombination of a ‘describe’ question, and a ‘suggest reasons for’ question. The logical way to answer is to describe first and then provide an explanation for the feature, but sometimes it is possible to provide the reasons first and then describe the consequent feature.™ How... Describe. What methods are involved?™ Identify... State or name... Point out and name. These words ask for a short answer to asimple task such as: a) ‘Identify the landform from the photograph ...’ b) ‘Identify the value of... from the graph’ c) ‘Name an example of ...’ Don’t just answer with a single word - it is always better to put the answer in a brief sentence.™ Interpret... Bring out the meaning of...™ In what ways... Describe. Identify a pattern.™ Justify… Usually applies to decision-making questions. When you have made your decision you must justify why that course of action was better than the alternatives. Explain why yourchosen course is b e t t er than the options that you rejected. Also explain how your choicemeets the criteria set out for you in the question (or which you had to describe earlier in your answer).™ Locate... State where it is.™ Outline... Note the main features.™ Quote map evidence... Give examples, including grid references, from map provided. Usecompass points. Use scale.

™ Rank... Put in order of size.™ Select... Choose.™ Study figure 1... If you’re asked to look at a diagram, then you must use that to help youanswer the question which follows.™ Suggest... Put forward an idea or reason.™ To what extent... Agree and disagree (for and against). There are a number of possibleexplanations - give these. Then say which you tend to favour.™ With reference to specific examples/cases... You must refer to a specific place,preferably a case study you know in some detail. Don’t just say something vague like ‘for example Brazil’; much better to say ‘the Tucuruí dam scheme in Amazonia, Brazil, where...’ .

ASSESSMENT TRACKER

DATE MODULE MONTH & YEAR OF PAPER

TOPIC TOTAL MARKS% MARK GRADE

GCSE to A Level Transition task 2018. The Edexcel specification for A Level Geography requires you to investigate a local place, as part of a topic called ‘Shaping Places’ within a unit of work on rebranding & regeneration of places. You will be investigating Walthamstow…

Task:

The task is one of familiarization: using the data stimulus material (see pages overleaf) and the references (web links) provided…

[1] Type up a 2-4 page report that summarises the characteristics of Walthamstow. Include:

A range of human and physical characteristics

Illustrate with maps, photos and graphs

[2] Create a presentation (e.g. Powerpoint or Google Slides) to showcase the above in front of your peers in class

Reading List

Endo

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Statistics about the Waltham Forest

https://www.walthamforest.gov.uk/content/statistics-about-borough

Super interactive data atlas

http://londondatastore-upload.s3.amazonaws.com/instant-atlas/ward-profiles-html/atlas.html

Mayor of London / City Hall data summaries for London boroughs

https://www.london.gov.uk/in-my-area

and….

https://www.london.gov.uk/city-hall-blog/why-walthamstow-called-awesomestow

Relief Digital terrain (relief) map of Walthamstow

http://en-gb.topographic-map.com/places/Walthamstow-9465467/

Geology (rock type)

Geology of Britain viewer

http://mapapps.bgs.ac.uk/geologyofbritain/home.html?

http://www.bgs.ac.uk/discoveringGeology/geologyOfBritain/viewer.html

Flood risk Environment Agency flood risk mapping (specify a location)

http://maps.environment-agency.gov.uk/wiyby/wiybyController?value=e17+9rt&submit.x=0&submit.y=0&submit=Search%09&lang=_e&ep=map&topic=floodmap&layerGroups=default&scale=9&textonly=off#x=537842&y=189046&lg=1,2,10,&scale=8

Human features – PDF summary

Excellent summary of characteristics in section 2 (pp.14-29)

https://branding.walthamforest.gov.uk/Documents/adopted-core-strategy.pdf

Geodemographics - Walthamstow

Local facts and figures

Waltham Forest is home to an estimated 271,200 residents and 104,000 households. The median age of residents is 34 years compared to the UK average of 40 years. Our borough is one of the most diverse areas in the country. 48 per cent of residents

are from a minority ethnic background. The top five countries of origin for residents born overseas are Pakistan (8,200), Poland

(8,200), Romania (4,300), Jamaica (4,200) and India (4,200 people). The top five languages spoken locally other than English are Urdu, Polish, Romanian,

Turkish and Lithuanian. 93 per cent of the 9,970 enterprises in Waltham Forest employ fewer than 10 people. 70,700 people (68 per cent) aged 16-64 are in employment whilst the unemployment

rate is 5.4 per cent. The estimated median annual earnings of full-time working residents rose 5 per cent

from 2014 to 2015 and is currently at £29,532. Waltham Forest is currently ranked 35th most deprived borough nationally according to

the 2015 Index of Multiple Deprivation (an improvement from 15th most deprived in the 2010 edition).

Life expectancy in Waltham Forest is similar to the England average – 79.4 years for men and 83.8 years for women

The average house price in the borough as of April 2016 was £424,700, an increase of 25 per cent from the same time last year

Population

According to the 2015 mid-year population estimates by the Office of National Statistics, Waltham Forest is home to a total of 271,200 people. This is 3,150 residents more than last year and a gain of 13,000 since the 2011 Census.

Waltham Forest has a younger than average population with 22 per cent of residents being aged 0 to 15 compared to 19 per cent nationally. Similar to London, Waltham Forest also has a high proportion of young working-age adults aged 25 to 49 (43 per cent compared to 34 per cent nationally). There are proportionately fewer people aged over 50 living in Waltham Forest (25 per cent) compared to the UK average (36 per cent). See table 1 for the latest population estimates by age group

Population projections

The Greater London Authority (GLA) 2015 round of population projections estimate that Waltham Forest population will increase from 274,800 residents in 2016 to a total of 291,500 by 2021, an increase of 16,700 (6%). The fastest growing group is projected to be those aged 50 and over.

Ethnicity

At the same time as experiencing a substantial increase in the number of residents, the borough has also become increasingly diverse. From the 2001 to the 2011 Census, the proportion of White British/Irish residents fell from 58 per cent to 38 per cent in Waltham Forest, while the share of all other ethnic groups increased. In comparison, the average proportion of White British/Irish residents in London is 47 per cent and in England and Wales as whole it is 81 per cent.

Most notably, the White Other group that includes arrivals from EU accession countries has more than doubled in the last decade from 6 per cent to 15 per cent. The percentage of residents from an Asian background has also increased from 15 per cent to 21 per cent as has the number of Black/Black British residents from 15 per cent to 17 per cent.

Country of birth

The 2011 Census showed that more than a third of Waltham Forest residents (37 per cent) are born abroad. The largest migrant groups in Waltham Forest are from Pakistan (12,700 people), Poland (8,200) and Romania (4,300).

As a percentage of its total borough population, Waltham Forest has the second largest proportion of Central and Eastern European residents of all London boroughs, with 9 per cent of the population of the borough originating from Central and Eastern Europe. This is twice the London average and substantially higher than in England and Wales (2 per cent).

Religion

The borough also has a diverse range of faith communities. According to the 2011 Census, Christianity remains the main religion, with 48 per cent of residents identifying as Christian. Although this proportion has decreased from 57 per cent in 2001, this is mostly due to increases in other groups as the absolute number of Christians has remained static. Almost a quarter of residents (22 per cent) are Muslims (compared to 5 per cent nationally), the proportion having increased from 15 per cent in 2001. There has also been a small increase in the proportion of people who identify themselves as secular (15 per cent to 18 per cent).

Recent arrivals

Data from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) on those registering for a National Insurance number (NINo) is useful in estimating the scale of recent arrivals into the borough. This data needs careful interpretation as it is only a measure of inflow and does not take into account those who have subsequently left the borough.

A total of 17,300 NINo registrations were recorded in the borough in 2014/15, an increase from 11,600 on the previous year. This is also the highest figure since records began in 2002. This has largely been driven by the lifting of transitional controls for EU2 nationals (migrants from Romania and Bulgaria) in January 2014. 90 per cent of new migrants are from Europe compared to 47 per cent a decade ago, while 5 per cent are from Asia and the remaining 5 per cent from the Rest of the World. The top three nationalities arriving to Waltham Forest in 2013/14 were Romanian, Polish and Spanish.

All the previous and future releases on NINo registrations are available on the GOV.UK website. Further information is also available from the Department for Work and Pensions Stat-Xplore resource.

Languages spoken in the borough

About one in four residents aged three and over (26 per cent) do not speak English as their main language compared to 8 per cent nationally (2011 Census). The majority (78 per cent), however, can speak English well or very well. About 6 per cent of the borough's residents (14,250 people) have said that they do not speak English well or at all.

Deprivation

Waltham Forest is just outside the bottom 10 per cent of the most deprived local authorities, ranking 35th out of 326 in England, according to the overall measure of multiple deprivation (IMD 2015). Its position has improved from 2010 when the borough ranked 15th most deprived in the country. Out of 33 London boroughs, Waltham Forest currently ranks 7th most deprived.

Furthermore, according to an estimate by the Campaign to End Child Poverty, 23 per cent of children (before housing costs are factored in) and 35 per cent (after housing costs) were living in poverty as of late 2013, which is higher than the UK average of 16 per cent (BHC) and 25 per cent (AHC). Poverty is defined according to HMRC, which measures child poverty as the proportion of children living in families in receipt of out of work benefits or in receipt of tax credits where their reported income is less than 60 per cent of median income.Education

In Waltham Forest, there are currently 53 primary schools, 17 secondary schools, 5 special schools and 3 pupil referral units. 12 schools are academy converts, 10 are sponsor-led academies and 2 are free schools.

According to the Department for Education, Waltham Forest’s Key Stage 2 or SAT results (for pupils aged 7 to 11) are below the England average. In the academic year 2014-15, 78 per cent of pupils at schools in the borough achieved at least Level 4, the level expected of most

11 year olds, in the academic year 2014-15, compared to 80 per cent across the country. The borough ranked bottom out of all London boroughs in 2014-15.

Likewise, Waltham Forest is at the lower end of the scale across London regarding results at Key Stage 4 (or GCSE results for pupils aged 14 to 16), with 57 per cent of pupils achieving at least five A*-C grades. However, the fact that education in London as a whole has improved greatly in recent times distorts the fact that large improvements have nonetheless been made in the borough over the last few years.

In 2014-15, 55 per cent of pupils in Waltham Forest achieved at least five A*-C grades at GCSE including English and Maths compared to the London average of 60 per cent.

In 2014-15, 67 per cent of the borough’s pupils achieved at least five A*-C grades in any subject at GCSE compared with 70 per cent for London as a whole.

Results at Key Stage 5 or A-Level results for pupils aged 16 to 18 are also lower in Waltham Forest than they are in both London and England. In 2014-15, the borough’s students achieved an average point score per pupil of 660, just below the London average of 672. The England average was significantly higher at 700 points per student.

Figures from the Annual Population Survey by ONS show that between January and December 2015, 43 per cent of the working-age population aged 16-64 in Waltham Forest was qualified to degree level or above. This is lower than the London average of 50 per cent. 12 per cent of residents aged 16-64, or a total of 21,200 people in Waltham Forest, do not have any formal qualifications, which is more than the London average of 7 per cent.Employment and unemployment

According to the ONS’s Annual Population Survey, the number of employed people in Waltham Forest reached at 134,300, up from 107,100 in 2012.

The employment rate for the working-age population aged 16-64 in the 12 months to December 2015 was 73 per cent, the same as the London average.

Unemployment among economically active residents aged 16 and over is 5.4 per cent, down from 11 per cent in 2012 and 9.6 per cent in 2013. This is equivalent to a total of 7,700 unemployed residents. The average unemployment rate in London is slightly higher at 6.2 per cent.

The number of people claiming Jobseekers’ Allowance (JSA) in Waltham Forest was 3,500 as at April 2016.

The total number of residents claiming any of the key out-of-work benefits is about 19,600 as at November 2015. This is 10.7 per cent of the population aged 16 to 64 and is roughly the same rate as for London (10.4 per cent).

According to the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings by the ONS, the median earnings for Waltham Forest residents who work full-time in 2015 was £29,500, an increase of 5 per cent from the year before but below the figure for London which was £33,200.HousingIn response to the needs of the growing population, private rented housing has been the fastest growing housing tenure in Waltham Forest in the past decade. According to the 2011 Census, about one in four households in Waltham Forest (26 per cent) now live in private rented accommodation, up from 16 per cent in 2001.This is in line with the London average (25 per cent) and higher than the national average (17 per cent). The total number of private rented sector households in the borough is now 25,100, not far from double that in 2001 (14,100).

From 2001 to 2011 the borough has seen a decline in owner-occupied housing (58 per cent down to 50 per cent) and a small decline in the social rented sector (24 per cent down to 22 per cent).

Property prices are rising rapidly across London and Waltham Forest is quoted as one of the boroughs with the fastest rising prices. From April 2013 to April 2016, the average price of a house increased from £244,400 to £424,700, a rise of 74 per cent (UK House Price Index, ONS). Over the past 12 months, monthly house price growth has averaged 2.1 per cent.

Waltham Forest Council’s housing stock is managed by the Council itself, having previously been the responsibility of an arm’s length management organisation called Ascham Homes until 30 November 2015.

As at April 2016, Waltham Forest had a total of 9,400 households on the Housing Register.Health

Estimated life expectancy for those born between 2010 and 2014 in Waltham Forest for men was 79.4 years and 83.8 years for women, which is similar to the England average. However, there is a great deal of inequality among wards. In Grove Green, the average male life

expectancy was 83.4 years compared to 75.7 years in Lea Bridge. Likewise, in Endlebury, the average female life expectancy was 89.4 years compared to 80.7 years in Lea Bridge (ONS).

Healthy life expectancy, which measures the amount of time that individuals are in ‘good’ health, is 61.3 years for men and 59.4 years for women.

Waltham Forest compares well to the England average on initiating breast-feeding. It also has lower rates of women smoking in pregnancy, fewer adults who are obese or have excess weight, a lower incidence of malignant melanoma and a lower number of road injuries and deaths (Waltham Forest Health Profile 2014).

On the other hand, Waltham Forest is doing significantly worse than England in terms of infant mortality, obesity among children, smoking prevalence, recorded diabetes, incidence of tuberculosis and sexually transmitted infections (Waltham Forest Health Profile 2014).

Cardiovascular disease is the biggest killer in the London Borough of Waltham Forest, which causes 24 per cent of premature deaths (75 years and under) and is the main contributor for health inequalities between Waltham Forest and England.Crime

From April 2015 to March 2016, a total of 21,740 crimes were recorded by the Metropolitan Police in Waltham Forest, an increase of 4.6 per cent on the year before.

The top three types of crimes in Waltham Forest in the year up to March 2016 were:

Theft & Handling, which includes theft of and from a vehicle, shoplifting, theft from a person etc. (34 per cent of all crime)

Violence against the person (33 per cent of all crime) Burglary (10 per cent of all crime)

The borough’s monthly crime rate from April 2015 to March 2016 was 6.8 per 1,000 people, lower than the average crime rate for London (7.2).

According to the Metropolitan Police Service Public Attitude Survey from December 2015, 35 per cent of residents were ‘worried’ or ‘very worried’ about crime in the area, down one per cent from the same time last year but slightly higher than the London average of 33 per cent (source: Mayor’s Office for Policing and Crime via London Datastore).

Relief / topography / terrain

1. FloodplainA floodplain is the area that would naturally be affected by flooding if a river rises above its banks, or high tides and stormy seas cause flooding in coastal areas. There are two different kinds of area shown on the Flood Map for Planning (rivers and the sea). They can be described as follows:

Flood Zone 3   shows the area that could be affected by flooding, either from rivers or the sea, if there were no flood defences. This area could be flooded:

o from the sea by a flood that has a 0.5 per cent (1 in 200) or greater chance of happening each year;o or from a river by a flood that has a 1 per cent (1 in 100) or greater chance of happening each year. Flood Zone 2   shows the additional extent of an extreme flood from rivers or the sea. These outlying areas are

likely to be affected by a major flood, with up to a 0.1 per cent (1 in 1000) chance of occurring each year. These two colours show the extent of the natural floodplain if there were no flood defences or certain other manmade structures and channel improvements.

Where there is no blue shading, this shows the area where flooding from rivers and the sea is very unlikely. There is less than a 0.1 per cent (1 in 1000) chance of flooding occurring each year. The majority of England falls within this area.