Save Pakistan, Save the World

For the past few years, Pakistan has experienced a very serious energy

shortage that does not seem to be getting any better. A growing demand for

power, an aging infrastructure, and poor development by the Pakistani

government have all contributed to the shortage of power in the country. The

daily power outages are having an immense impact in the lives of the

Pakistani people. This problem needs an effective solution that can bridge the gap

between power supply and demand before it grows any larger. Some may

suggest that the best way to solve Pakistan’s energy shortage is for Pakistan

to increase the use of its existing energy resources and increase its

importation of fuel. However, I believe that those solutions are ineffective and

the most effective way to solve Pakistan’s energy shortage is a combination of

conserving energy, increasing the use of coal with clean coal technology,

investing in new power generation facilities, and building new power plants that

run on clean and renewable sources of energy.

Narration

The rapid industrialization and modernization of many parts of Pakistan

has caused an equally rapid increase in the country’s power consumption. With

Pakistan’s current power supply incapable of meeting the country’s demand, the

people must suffer rolling blackouts on a daily basis. These blackouts threaten

the livelihood of the Pakistani people, limiting their ability to work and

adversely affecting their health – effects which are amplified due to the

extremely hot climate in Pakistan. Without power, many people, especially those

in office buildings and those who rely on computers and electronics, cannot

complete their work. Living in the heat without any fans or air conditioners

can and has made people, including myself

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when I visited Pakistan, very sick. Without electricity to power refrigerators,

food gets spoiled and people become ill when they eat it. In the modern

world, having access to power has almost become a basic human right and

need for survival.

The Pakistani citizens’ access to power is shrinking at an alarming rate

due to the gap between power supply and demand. According to a forecast by

Pakistan’s Private Power & Infrastructure Board, the power supply and

demand gap will grow to over three times its current size by 2020 (Private

Power and Infrastructure Board, Supply and Demand ). Solving this energy

shortage is a race against time because the longer it takes for a solution to be

found, the worse the problem will become. If the power supply and demand gap

continues to grow at this rate, solving the energy shortage may soon become

impossible. An energy shortage is not limited to just Pakistan; it may affect

the United States and the rest of the world someday.

Finding an effective solution for Pakistan’s current energy shortage may help

prevent one from affecting the rest of the world.

The PPIB’s forecast estimates the shortage of electricity in Pakistan to

be at almost 11,700 megawatts (MW). But what exactly is a megawatt and what

does a shortage of 11,700 MW mean? A megawatt is defined as one million

watts and is the unit of measurement for electric power. Small and medium‐

sized power plants usually have a generating capacity of a few hundred MW,

with large plants generating 1,000 MW or more. Roy L. Nersesisan, Associate

Professor of Management at Monmouth University's School of Business

Administration, explains in his book, Energy for the 21st Century: A

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Comprehensive Guide to Conventional and Alternative Sources , that generally a

“1,000‐megawatt plant can serve the needs of 2 million people”. By this estimate,

a shortage of 11,700 MW is the equivalent of 23.4

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million people, who have access to electricity, without power. This figure does

not even take into account the millions of people in the country who live in

areas that have not yet been electrified.

Short‐term Solutions

One possible short‐term solution to Pakistan’s energy crisis is to increase

the use of the country’s extensive thermal energy reserves (oil, natural gas,

coal, etc.). Pakistan, like most other countries around the world, has veritable

reserves of fossil fuels. The amount of fuel in these reserves is many times

greater than how much is used or needed each year. A report by the Energy

Information Administration of the United States Department of Energy states

that Pakistan had natural gas reserves of 28 trillion cubic feet in 2006 and

consumed 968 billion cubic feet in 2004 (Energy Information Administration),

which means that natural gas reserves should last another 25‐26 years at the

current rate of consumption. Similarly, oil reserves would last about 10

years and coal hundreds of years, according to the information in the report.

The advantages of this solution are that it: does not require extensive planning,

can be implemented immediately, provides immediate relief from the problem

for Pakistanis, and reduces fuel importation needs.

The major disadvantage of this solution, however, far outweighs all of the

advantages. This disadvantage lies in the fact that there is a finite amount of

fuel in these reserves and if Pakistan keeps using more of them, eventually

they will run out. If this happens, then Pakistan has no backup plan and will face

an energy crisis severely greater than its current one and one that it may never

be able to recover from. Some may argue that the purpose of these reserves is

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to help the country in a time of emergency and the current energy shortage

is such an

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emergency. This may be true to a certain extent, but the current problem is not

an emergency in the sense that there is no other solution other than using

the thermal energy reserves. At this point, there are other, less risky solutions

that can help solve Pakistan’s energy shortage, which is why I do not support

increasing the use of Pakistan’s thermal energy reserves.

However, there is one thermal energy source that I believe should be used

to a greater extent in Pakistan’s power production: coal. According to the report

by the US Department of Energy, only 7.6 percent of the country’s energy

supply in 2005 was coal, which means that total energy consumption was the

equivalent of about 46 million short tons (Mmst) of coal.

Pakistan has coal reserves of 3,362 Mmst and in 2004 used only 3.5 Mmst

(Energy Information Administration), which would last over 950 years. If coal

consumption was increased to 70 Mmst – 20 times its current level and

equivalent to 1.5 times the total energy consumption in 2005 – coal reserves

would still last another 50 years. By looking at the amount of coal Pakistan has in

reserve and the amount that it actually uses, one can conclude that coal is

extremely underused. There is enormous potential for the use of coal in Pakistan

to produce electricity.

Zahid Ali Akbar Khan, retired Lieutenant General and former chairman of

Pakistan’s Water and Power Development Authority, urges the building of large

scale coal‐fired plants in Pakistan (Khan). In his article, Khan acknowledges that

Pakistan is behind the rest of the world in coal‐ based power plants and needs

to catch up quickly. Coal is used to produce a majority of the electricity

produced in India, the United Kingdom, and the United States (Khan 30), and

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should be used to the same extent in Pakistan.

This solution may seem costly at first, but further analysis leads to the

conclusion that it is very cost‐effective in the long‐run. There will be a high initial

cost of building and developing

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the plants. However, building these plants will create thousands of new jobs and

help improve the country’s economy. These plants will also save money because

they will reduce the amount of fuel that needs to be imported into Pakistan.

The positives of increasing the use of coal vastly outweigh the negatives. In

return for high initial costs, increasing the use of coal‐based power will help solve

Pakistan’s energy shortage, create thousands of new jobs, save money on

importing fuels, and promote energy independence.

The biggest concern with an increased burning of coal is the damage that is

done to the environment. Coal is known to release many pollutants and green

house gases when burned, contributing to environmental problems such as

acid rain, smog, and global warming. Dr.

Javaid Laghari, a professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering and current

president of the Shaheed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto Institute of Science and Technology

and Senator of Pakistan, insists in his article “Power Vision for Pakistan” that

these harmful effects of burning coal can be diminished (22). Clean coal

technologies, which minimize or eliminate impurities and pollutants from coal,

are currently being developed and advanced around the world. By building

new coal‐burning power plants, Pakistan can become a world leader in the

development of clean coal technologies by implementing them in their new

plants. This would effectively solve two energy problems in Pakistan and the rest

of the world simultaneously: the energy shortage in Pakistan and environmental

problems caused by the pollutants released from burning coal.

Another effective short‐term solution to Pakistan’s energy shortage that I

support is to use less energy. The less energy the country uses the less energy it

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needs and the closer it is to bridging the gap between supply and demand.

There are three main sectors for energy usage in Pakistan: the

domestic/household sector, industrial sector, and the transportation sector.

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Each of these sectors has both unique and similar ways they can conserve

energy. M. Noman Siddique writes in the Pakistani newspaper, Business

Recorder, that the biggest way to conserve energy and one that is common to

all three sectors, is to use more energy efficient products. For the household

and industrial sectors, this means more efficient lighting and air conditioning

systems, and for the transportation sector, more fuel efficient cars, trucks,

buses, planes, and other vehicles. With these and other energy

conservation methods, the domestic/household sector could become 30%

more efficient; the industrial sector could become 23% more efficient; and the

transportation sector could become 20% more efficient (Sharif).

There are many advantages to this solution that make it one of the most effective.

Energy conservation can be implemented immediately and can provide instant

relief from the problems of load shedding. Another advantage of this solution is

that it increases the efficiency of energy consumption, making the best use of

what the country already has. But the biggest advantage is the fact that energy

conservation techniques can be used no matter what Pakistan’s energy

situation is. More efficient use of energy will help whether or not the country has

enough energy. The disadvantage of this solution is that it will be difficult to

spread knowledge and implementation of it, especially in poor and rural areas.

Middle and upper class Pakistanis may be able to afford new more energy‐

efficient products, but the lower class may not. However, the government may

give the people incentives to buy these products, such as tax breaks and

exemptions.

Long‐Term Solutions

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One possible long‐term solution is to increase the amount of fuel imported

from other countries. The principle behind this solution is that if you do not have

enough energy in your country, you can get more from another country. This

solution is already being used by the Pakistani government. They are planning

to build up to three new natural gas pipelines that would bring natural gas from

the Middle East to Pakistan and India (Energy Information Administration). The

advantages of importing more fuel from other countries are many: its initial costs

are cheaper than those of other long‐term solutions; it can be implemented more

quickly than other long‐term solutions; and it reduces the load on Pakistan’s

energy reserves.

The disadvantages of increasing the importation of fuel make it an

ineffective way to bring Pakistan out of its current energy crisis, which is why I

oppose it. Though it may seem cheap at first, this solution is actually more

expensive than other long‐term solutions. Initial costs may be lower, but over

time costs will grow as the demand for power grows. More importation,

especially of something as important as energy, would increase the dependence

of Pakistan on foreign nations to support it. With this solution, Pakistan would

not be able to support itself energy‐wise and would be at the mercy of the

countries aiding it. This would be a major security risk for the country and the

world, especially because of the fact that Pakistan has nuclear weapons.

Countries supplying Pakistan with fuel may threaten to cut off supplies, giving

them the ability to demand whatever they please, including use of Pakistan’s

nuclear weapons. At that point, the Pakistani government would have to

choose between giving up their power and crippling their country due to the

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lack of power. The final disadvantage of increasing the importation of fuels is

that it leaves Pakistan more susceptible to fluctuations in fuel prices. This could

debilitate the country’s economy, especially if fuel prices spike like they

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did this past summer. A weak economy in addition to a shortage of energy could

potentially cripple Pakistan and its citizens.

A more effective and beneficial long‐term solution to Pakistan’s energy

shortage would be to invest in power generation facilities, both old and new. A

combination of fixing current power facilities and building new ones is the

most effective way to get Pakistan out of its current energy crisis. The term

“power facilities” refers not only to the electricity generating plants, but the

electricity transportation infrastructure as well. Two major problems with

Pakistan’s electricity transportation system are that it is inefficient and

vulnerable to theft. By inefficient, I mean that, due to the aging infrastructure,

not all of the electricity that travels through the transportation system (i.e.

power lines) makes it to the other end. Some of the electrical energy is

converted into thermal energy and lost in the form of heat. General Zahid Khan

mentions in his article “Managing the Worsening Power Crises” that line losses

are as high as thirty to forty percent (30). As much as one third of the

electricity generated in Pakistan is wasted because of poor infrastructure. I am

assuming that, with engineering and technology as advanced as they are

today, most industrial nations have line losses much lower than thirty

percent. The country’s infrastructure needs to be completely overhauled (Khan

30), which should be at the top of the list of things to do for the Pakistani

government to help improve the country’s energy situation. What is the point

of generating so much electricity if you cannot get it to the people? Efficiency

improvement is not limited to infrastructure; it can be applied to current power

plants as well. Momin Arif, Director and CEO of Pakistan’s Oil, Gas, and Energy

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Company , insists in his article “Energy Crisis; What We Can Do Today!” that

small changes in power generating plants can have enormous benefits in

terms of energy output (61). These

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small changes include activities such as running the plants for longer and for

more days or buying stronger bolts (Arif 61‐62).

The next step in investing in power generation facilities is to build new

power plants in Pakistan. The basic principle for this common sense solution

is that if you are not producing enough power, then you must produce more

power. If more power generation plants are built, then enough power may be

produced to actually meet the country’s growing demand. There are many

advantages and benefits to investing in power facilities. Building new power

plants and rebuilding the country’s infrastructure would create many new jobs

and simultaneously boost the nation’s economy. It would also promote energy

independence and improve Pakistan’s ability to support itself. The main

disadvantage of this solution is its high initial costs and planning/construction

time. A lot of money is required to build new power plants, but this should be

viewed as an investment. The new jobs created by the plant would decrease

unemployment and increase spending by the people receiving these jobs. This

results in more money in taxes for the government and more money in the

economy, a win‐win situation for the country and its people.

The final step in investing in power generation facilities would be to

build new power plants that produce electricity from renewable sources of

energy. Renewable sources of energy include hydroelectricity, wind energy, and

solar energy. In terms of power generation capacity, there is enormous potential

for these sources of energy in Pakistan. Mohammad Aslam Uqaili, a professor in

the Department of Electrical Engineering at the Mehran University of Engineering

and Technology in Pakistan, with the help of two of his colleagues, wrote a

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research paper that discusses the potential of some renewable sources of

energy. According to this paper, the

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technical potential for hydroelectric power is 20,000 MW with a currently

installed capacity of 6,494 MW (57). The concerns with hydroelectric power

are that it can harm local ecological systems and that some of the rivers that

run through Pakistan also run through other countries, which can cause political

problems if dams are built on these rivers. There is much potential for wind

energy as well, “The estimated technical potential of centralized grid connected

wind power in the coastal areas is 484 TWh [Terawatt‐hour = energy

equivalent of 1 Terawatt of electricity for 1 hour ; 1 Terawatt = 1 million MW]

per year, which is 5.65 times the current total conventional power generation

in Pakistan” (Uqaili 58). Wind farms would be built in the coastal areas of

Pakistan because they are very windy, but wind farms in these locations may

disturb local ecosystems. The renewable source of energy with the largest

potential in Pakistan is solar power. The maximum potential for solar power is

about 3.5 PWh (Petawatt‐hour; 1 Petawatt = 1 billion MW), which is 41 times

the total conventional power generation (Uqaili 57). However, electricity output

at these levels would require much more advanced and efficient photovoltaic

technology than is available today. Hydroelectric dams and wind turbines/farms

can be built at locations where the harm to local ecological systems is minimized

or eliminated. More research can be and is being done around the world to

develop better photovoltaic cells for solar power. These challenges of

renewable sources of energy can be overcome without excessively limiting

their potential for electricity generation.

These sources of energy are environmentally friendly, renewable (will never

run out), and would help bring Pakistan into the 21st century. A major concern with

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conventional sources of energy such as oil, gas, and coal is their harmful

effects on the environment. Renewable sources of energy minimize or eliminate

these concerns and would help slow the progression of

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global warming. On the other hand, there is only a finite amount of the

conventional sources of energy and they will eventually run out. Renewable

sources of energy will most likely never completely run out. Environmental

factors may reduce the amount of energy that may be extracted from these

sources, but they will never be eliminated. This conditional availability, however,

is the disadvantage of renewable energy sources. If it is not windy, wind

energy is limited; if it is not sunny, solar energy is limited; if there is less water

due to the extreme heat, hydroelectric power is limited. The way to get around

this is to use a combination of these and other sources of energy.

Conclusion

The growing demand for power in Pakistan combined with the country’s

inefficient power transportation system has caused a massive power shortage

that will only get worse if nothing is done to stop it. Some may say that

Pakistan’s energy crisis should be solved by increasing use of the country’s

thermal energy reserves and increasing the importation of fuel. However, I

believe that the disadvantages of these solutions overshadow the advantages and

that they would only create bigger problems. The energy shortage in Pakistan

should be solved by increasing the use of coal, conserving energy, and investing

in power generation facilities with a strong focus on renewable sources of

energy. This combination would provide short‐ term relief and long‐term

elimination of the problem.

I don’t expect anyone reading this paper to go to Pakistan and solve the

energy crisis, it would be great if they did though. People should be aware of

this problem and the fact that it affects millions of people around the world, not

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just those in Pakistan. Also, think about how much electricity you use and

waste, and what you would do without it. I visited Pakistan this

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past summer and saw how hard life is for the people there. It made me more

conscious about my electricity usage and I would like to convey this

consciousness to others through this paper. The problems Pakistan is facing

today may be the problems faced by the whole world in the near future. The

solution for Pakistan’s energy shortage today may be the key to preventing a

global energy catastrophe tomorrow.

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