Microsoft Firenze|BXT - Team Shazel (Carnegie Mellon) - 2010-2011

Microso' Firenze BXT 2011 | Chong Han Chua Smitha Prasadh Jeff Mataya Safwan Samla

IdeaFon Concept Design Technology Business Vision

CloudCity Where your data lives



“Next-Gen Consumer Productivity”



Ideation Discovering a new world



The Ideation Process The convergence and divergence approach

Entertainment Ideas Families and neighborhoods EducaFonal resources

Financial advice

Shopping deals

Reliable InformaFon Yahoo Answers

Google Search

Email Phone

Wikipedia Forums

Trusted Search`



Whiteboarding



“Chalkboarding”



7

Survey Results The trust dilemma

Likeliness of trusFng an arFcle from an unknown source

Very Unlikely Very Likely

Likeliness of trusFng an arFcle from one’s social network

Very Unlikely Very Likely

Survey administered through the Internet. See Appendix I.



8

Selected Quotes Talking to people

“I tend not to trust ar-cles from unknown sources un-l I've checked out the source.”

“My friends/contacts tend to be a rather informed bunch...”

“I look at hotel reviews on [forum name redacted] but take them with a grain of salt.”

“I like to think those in my immediate online circles are well informed and not evil.”

“There's just as much misinforma-on on the Internet as there is good informa-on. I need to know where it's coming from.”



9

Key Findings 1.   There is a need to deliver trustworthy

informaFon efficiently. 2.   People trust familiar sources. 3.   Useful informaFon will improve lives. 4.   Current soluFons do not address this desire

for trusted informaFon.

Our guiding lights



Problem Statement How do we deliver trusted informaFon that can help people improve their producFvity and day-‐to-‐day lives?



(video)



Introducing CloudCity CloudCity is a trust-‐based social sharing pladorm that enables people to find and distribute informaFon and media among different degrees of contacts.



13

The Product Vision CloudCity enables people to effortlessly share informaFon and media with friends and family.

The Platform Vision CloudCity enables the developer community to build consumer producFvity tools.



Paradigm Shift We want to encourage users to create and share useful informaFon between friends and family



15

The Domain New opportuniFes

Facebook is

Social

LinkedIn is

Professional

CloudCity is

Trust



16

Adjacent Next Following the trail

Social Networks

Search Engine

File HosFng

Cloud City



Design Building the paragon of trust



18

Overview From the bird’s eye

CloudCity System

Third Party Extensions

Client ApplicaFon

Web ApplicaFons



19

Client Application User interface

1

1.   The user profile 2.   The user acFvity tracks and

displays the user’s contribuFon 3.   A list of local sharable

documents created by the user 4.   Privacy seings are immediately

visible upon sharing 5.   Ability to search the user’s files

2

3

4

5



20


1.   A list of media shared by contacts

2.   List of file ajributes: file type, contact group and other useful informaFon

3.   Preview of the media can be found in a side pane

4.   User can acknowledge other users who share relevant media

5.   Ability to search the list of recently update files

1

2

3

4 5



21


1.   User’s friends list 2.   User profile 3.   Recent files 4.   Groups and other friend

management 5.   Ability to search through

friends, as usual

1

2

3 4

5



22


1.   The applicaFon will monitor these folders

2.   Extension are managed by client applicaFon for security.

3.   Extensive privacy opFons to ensure comfortable file sharing

1

2

3



23

Web Applications IntegraFon

1.   We believe that trusted search is an important facet of informaFon foraging, and provides huge advantages when augmented to exisFng search engines.

2.   Results are displayed alongside regular search results

3.   Many files can be viewed within the browser

1

2 3



24

Third-Party Extensions Endless possibiliFes

1.   We envision integraFon into various consumer producFvity applicaFons via extensions.

2.   Providing contextual results is a useful use case

3.   Another such use is to have previews that serve as references for a user’s working document

4.   Extensions provide context-‐ sensiFve acFons that the client applicaFon cannot

1

2 4

3



Technology The nuts and bolts



26

Technical Feasibility CloudCity is built on these technologies: •   Windows Server, IIS & .NET •   Microso' SQL Server •   .NET & Windows PresentaFon FoundaFon •   Windows Search 4.0 •   SSL and cryptography techniques •   Windows Live pladorm •   Bing search pladorm

The building blocks



27

Architecture Overview A two-‐Fer model

Server

Client

www.



28

Server

Server Farm •   ASP.NET

Storage Cluster •   MS SQL Server •   File Server

The CloudCity engine

www.



29

Communication Server Farm •   ASP.NET

Storage Cluster •   MS SQL Server •   File Server

Authen9ca9on •   Secure authenFcaFon with Windows Live ID Single Sign On

Protocol •   Socket communicaFon via SSL connecFon •   Files encrypted with RSA


www.



30

Client Authen9ca9on •   Secure authenFcaFon with Windows Live ID Single Sign On

Protocol •   Socket communicaFon via SSL connecFon. •   Files encrypted with RSA

Client Applica9on •   C#.NET •   Windows PresentaFon FoundaFon

The CloudCity engine www.



31

Web API

Server Farm •   ASP.NET

Web APIs •   XML-‐RPC •   JSON/REST

Third-‐party Integra9on Third-‐party providers can query CloudCity using Windows Live ID

Third-‐party Applica9ons These applicaFons may be accessible through other means, such as the browser.


www.



32

Client Extensions

Client Applica9on •   C#.NET •   Windows PresentaFon FoundaFon

Third-‐party Integra9on The Client ApplicaFon has an authenFcaFon engine that allows approved third-‐party extensions to access data. Due to security concerns, these extensions must be signed and provided through the Marketplace

The CloudCity engine www.



Business The dollars and cents



34

Active User Base Up, up, and away

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

Q1 2012

Q2 2012

Q3 2012

Q4 2012

Q1 2013

Q2 2013

Q3 2013

Q4 2013

Q1 2014

Num

ber o

f Ac9ve Users

Number of Ac9ve CloudCity Users

See Appendix II for addiFonal informaFon.



35

Business Models CloudCity is a free service for users with a Windows Live ID. There are three predominant revenue channels: 1.   Marketplace •   A portal that allows CloudCity users to sell content to

other users. 2.   Extension Store •   A marketplace containing small, paid applicaFons

that enhance CloudCity by integraFng with other applicaFons.

3.   AdverFsing •   Contextual adverFsing based on user searches.

Revenue generaFon



36

Marketplace Content and services

Sellers

Users have the opFon to share content for free. Marketplace facilitates opFonal selling of content and services

Buyers Products Services

Users

Businesses

CloudCity uses MicrosoD Points as currency for trade. Microso' Points can be purchased online or in brick and mortar stores

CloudCity



37

Marketplace Business model

Post content

Display content

Download content

Debits Points

Updates acFvity level

Sellers

Marketplace

Buyers

System

Split revenue



38

Extension Store ApplicaFon plug-‐ins

Extensions are so'ware components that can be added onto exisFng so'ware. First and third-‐party extensions can be built to extend exisFng applicaFons with CloudCity. These extensions are signed and offered through an extension store.

CloudCity



39

Extension Store Business model

Require more

features

Sells extension

Debit Points

Split revenue

Buyers

Extension Store

Sellers

System



40

Advertising Reaching out

Product Providers

Service Providers

CloudCity



41

Advertising Business model

Searches for content

Displays results

Displays relevant ads

Earns revenue

Clicks on ads

User

Cloud City

System

Microso'



42

Revenue Growth Sizing and esFmaFon

0

5

10

15

20

25

2011 2012 2013 2014

Revenu

e (In

Millions of $

)

End of Calendar Year

Projected Revenue By Category

Total Revenue

AdverFsing

Marketplace

Extension Store

Break Even

Break Even Point

See Appendix III for more informaFon.



43

Impact on Microsoft Our strategic value

CloudCity has synergy with the Microso' pladorm

CloudCity



44

Adoption Strategies Reaching out to users

Deliver CloudCity applicaFon through Windows Update

Office extensions

Extension to Windows Live Messenger

Bing integraFon

> 900M Users

Microso' Office

Windows Live Messenger

Bing

hjp://arstechnica.com/microso'/news/2009/01/500000000-‐windows-‐live-‐users-‐on-‐hotmail-‐and-‐messenger.ars hjp://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm hjp://royal.pingdom.com/2010/04/16/does-‐internet-‐explorer-‐have-‐more-‐than-‐a-‐billion-‐users/ hjp://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/bing-‐overtakes-‐yahoo-‐as-‐the-‐2-‐search-‐engine/ hjp://mashable.com/2010/12/15/bing-‐has-‐90-‐million-‐users/

Windows

~ 800M Users

~ 500M Users

~ 90M Users



45

Investment Summary o   $5.2M investment. o   $18M in revenue a'er second year of release.

o   240% return on investment over four years. o   CloudCity is financially posiFve a'er the first 24 months in the hands of consumers.

Building the product



46

Investment Summary Building the product

$5.2M

Engineering MarkeFng Support

$2.75M $1.5M $0.425M

1 resource headcount See Appendix IV for detailed breakdown.

Backend Frontend

PM

Dev

Ops

UX

PM

BM

Sup



47

Timeline The path we trod

July October January April 2011 2012

Public Launch

Product Development

MarkeFng

Support



48

Competition Facebook

CompeFtor Pros CloudCity Pros Networks of contacts are already established. Networks on Facebook are too broad; just

because someone is a friend, that does not imply trust.

Copious amounts of informaFon already exist on sites like Facebook.

Current networks exist to connect people. CloudCity exists to share informaFon.

Facebook is a powerhouse: it is the third most trafficked site on the Internet and is used by 12% of people in the United States.

DifferenFaFon of informaFon will allow CloudCity and Facebook to coexist – having a Facebook account is not a disincenFve to join CloudCity.



49

Competition Google and Yahoo!

CompeFtor Pros CloudCity Pros Google, Bing, and Yahoo! are the de facto methods for finding informaFon on the Internet.

CloudCity will integrate with Bing, providing users with the familiarity, speed, and breadth of informaFon of a search engine.

Google has implemented social network searching.

The informaFon in CloudCity is not available to search engines.

Google and Yahoo! have access to much more informaFon than CloudCity.

CloudCity provides an instant level of credibility to the informaFon found.



50

Competition eHow, Wikipedia, and Yahoo! Answers

CompeFtor Pros CloudCity Pros These sites will have much more content than CloudCity at launch.

Content returned from CloudCity is trusted and therefore more valuable. IntegraFon with Bing gives users access to a wide variety of informaFon.

Wikipedia and eHow provide access to a wide breadth of informaFon.

CloudCity Marketplace will give users access to a tremendous breadth of informaFon. Plus, only CloudCity indexes valuable private informaFon.

CloudCity Marketplace will inspire users to create interesFng and helpful documents only found on CloudCity.

Yahoo! Answers allows users to find answers to very specific quesFons.



51

Risks Challenges

Risks MiFgaFons CompeFtors, like Facebook, copy CloudCity. InformaFon on Facebook is fundamentally

different. Facebook shares experiences, CloudCity shares informaFon.

Users have lijle content to share. Extensions will help users create useful content.

AdopFon strategies fail Small investment and team are needed to implement this product.



Vision The long road ahead



53

Long Term Vision Looking ahead

Trusted Search

Social Networking

Pladorm

Mobile Strategy

Personal Digital Assistant

Micro-‐Publishing

CloudCity



Thank You! See you in Redmond!



Appendix I Survey results



56

Demographics Survey results

Users of Social Networking tools?

While the number of parFcipants were small, we do not expect significant difference in results from a larger sample. We further confirmed our data with on-‐the-‐street interviews.



57

A Sense Making Challenge Survey results

In general, do you think there are sufficient resources for delivering useful informaFon online?

If you come across an arFcle online from an unknown source, how likely would you be to trust it?

Very Unlikely Very Likely Insufficient Too much



58

Unfulfilled Needs Survey results

How likely would you be to trust informaFon or documents containing targeted informaFon from people in your network of contacts?

How useful are social networking sites and tools in helping you locate targeted informaFon?

Very Unlikely Very Likely Very Unlikely Very Likely



Appendix II Pladorm growth rate esFmaFon



60

Platform Growth Estimation 1.   Growth rate esFmaFon is based on research

of pladorms with similar characterisFcs: •   InformaFon and file sharing – Dropbox •   Social networking service emphasizing trusted contacts – LinkedIn

•   Windows Update distribuFon – Silverlight

2.   CloudCity growth rates are conservaFve interpolaFons of the findings.

Comparable launches



61

Platform Growth Estimation Dropbox

Grew from 20,000 members to over four million in 18 months with 25% month over month growth.

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

May-‐04

Jun-‐04

Jul-‐0

4

Aug-‐04

Sep-‐04

Oct-‐04

Nov-‐04

Dec-‐04

Jan-‐05

Feb-‐05

Mar-‐05

Apr-‐05

May-‐05

Jun-‐05

Jul-‐0

5

Aug-‐05

Sep-‐05

Oct-‐05

Nov-‐05

Dec-‐05

Number of Dropbox Users

Sources: hjp://techcrunch.com/2009/04/24/dropbox-‐now-‐effortlessly-‐syncing-‐files-‐for-‐1-‐million-‐members/ hjp://www.geek.com/arFcles/news/dropbox-‐reaches-‐3-‐million-‐user-‐milestone-‐20091126/ hjp://techcrunch.com/2010/01/20/dropbox-‐4-‐million-‐user/



62

Platform Growth Estimation LinkedIn

300% growth from 2008 through 2010

Sources: hjp://linkedintelligence.com/linkedin-‐reaches-‐10-‐million-‐users/ hjp://blog.linkedin.com/2009/05/13/brooke-‐wajs-‐celebraFng-‐our-‐6th-‐birthday-‐with-‐40-‐million-‐members/ hjp://techcrunch.com/2010/02/11/linkedin-‐now-‐60-‐million-‐strong/ hjp://blog.linkedin.com/2008/05/12/happy-‐linco-‐de/ hjp://press.linkedin.com/pressreleases/linkedin-‐launches-‐new-‐subscripFons

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 Oct-‐01

Jan-‐02

Apr-‐02

Jul-‐0

2

Oct-‐02

Jan-‐03

Apr-‐03

Jul-‐0

3

Oct-‐03

Jan-‐04

Apr-‐04

Jul-‐0

4

Oct-‐04

Jan-‐05

Apr-‐05

Jul-‐0

5

Oct-‐05

Jan-‐06

Num

ber o

f Users (In Millions) LinkedIn User Base



63

Platform Growth Estimation Silverlight

Silverlight 4.0 reached 30.25% of computers within two months of its release.

Sources: hjp://statowl.com/silverlight_trend.php

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Mar-‐06 Apr-‐06 May-‐06 Jun-‐06 Jul-‐06 Aug-‐06 Sep-‐06 Oct-‐06

Percen

tage of C

ompu

ters W

ith Silverlight 4.0

Silverlight 4.0 Adop9on



64

Platform Growth Estimation 1.   Dropbox and LinkedIn experienced exponenFal

growth, much of it due to referrals. •   300% -‐ 400% growth

2.   Releasing via Windows Update allows so'ware to be seen by a very large number of potenFal users in a short period of Fme.

3.   Our esFmates •   The client is on four million computers a'er 12 months.

Slower adopFon than Silverlight because of the need for a proacFve user to sign up and get started.

•   Large iniFal exposure lets CloudCity start its growth quicker than LinkedIn or Dropbox.

•   Growth trajectory is similar to both LinkedIn and Dropbox.

Conclusions



Appendix III Revenue numbers



66

Marketplace Assumptions 2012 1.   4M expected users 2.   Expect each user to upload 10 pieces of content 3.   Expect 10% of all content to be downloaded 4.   Expect users to agree to pay for 30% of content downloaded 5.   Average cost of download is $0.20 with Microso' taking a 30% share. 6.   Expected 2012 revenue = $72,000 2013 1.   15M expected users 2.   Expect all other assumpFons to remain true. 3.   Expected 2013 revenue = $270,000 2014 1.   40M expected users 2.   Expect all other assumpFons to remain true. 3.   Expected 2014 revenue = $3.6

Sizing and esFmaFon



67

Extension Store 2012 1.   4M expected users 2.   100 extensions created by the end of the year 3.   10% of users will download an extension – 400,000 downloads 4.   Average cost is $1 per extension -‐ $400,000 5.   Microso' takes 30% share 6.   Expected 2012 revenue = $120,000 2013 1.   15M expected users 2.   150 extensions created by the end of the year 3.   20% of users will download an extension – 3M downloads 4.   All other assumpFons remain constant 5.   Expected 2013 revenue = $900,000 2014 1.   40M expected users 2.   200 extensions created by the end of the year 3.   30% of users will download an extension 4.   All other assumpFons remain constant 5.   Expected 2014 revenue = $3,600,000

Sizing and esFmaFon



68

Advertising 2012 1.   4M expected users 2.   Average user makes 300 searches per year – 1.2B searches 3.   An ad is clicked on 1% of searches – 12M 4.   $0.10 per click 5.   Expected 2012 revenue = $1.2M 2013 1.   15M expected users 2.   Average user makes 300 searches per year – 4.5B searches 3.   An ad is clicked on 1% of searches – 45M 4.   $0.10 per click 5.   Expected 2013 revenue = $4.5M 2014 1.   40M expected users 2.   Average user makes 300 searches per year – 12,000M searches 3.   An ad is clicked on 1% of searches – 120M 4.   $0.10 per click 5.   Expected 2014 revenue = $12M

Sizing and esFmaFon



Appendix IV Cost esFmaFon



70

Product Development Resources 1.   $5 million investment over the next two years 2.   Engineering Team

•   2 Program Managers ($100,000/yr) •   20 Developers and Testers ($100,000/yr) •   1 UX Designer ($100,000/yr) •   1 GFX Designer ($100,000/yr) •   1 OperaFons Engineer ($75,000/yr)

3.   Equipment Expenses •   Development and OperaFons Equipment ($25,000.00)

4.   Total Cost •   $2.5 million in first year •   $1.25 million in second year



71

Marketing Resources 1.   MarkeFng Team

•   1 Product Manager ($120,000/yr) •   1 Brand Manager ($120,000/yr)

2.   Other Expenses •   AdverFsing Campaign ($750,000.00) •   Conference Travel Expenses ($200,000.00) •   Customer Visit Expenses ($50,000.00) •   User Experience TesFng ($50,000.00) •   MarkeFng Budget ($1,050,000.00)

3.   Total MarkeFng Cost: •   $1.5 million over two years



72

Support Resources 1.   Support Personnel •   3 Support Engineers ($75,000/yr)

2.   Miscellaneous Expenses •   $200,000/yr in miscellaneous expenses

3.   Total Costs: •   $425,000 per year



Appendix V Screenshots from video

Microsoft Firenze|BXT - Team Shazel (Carnegie Mellon) - 2010-2011

Design

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