Microprocessors 2004
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Transcript of Microprocessors 2004
April 22, 2023 Nick Tredennick 1
Microprocessors 2004
Nick Tredennick, EditorGilder Technology Report
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Overview
• Major trends affecting the microprocessor market– Value PC– Value transistor– Emerging economies
• Microprocessors– Computer microprocessors– Embedded microprocessors– Configurable microprocessors– PLD microprocessors
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The PC Is Good Enough
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Transistors Are Good Enough
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Foundries: Adoption Rate By Process
Modeled after: TSMC http://www.tsmc.com/english/technology/t0203.htm
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Semiconductor Trends
• Value PCs outsell leading-edge PCs– Mobile applications emerge– Design emphasis shifts from cost
performance to cost-performance-per-watt
• Value transistors outsell leading-edge transistors– Transistor performance overshoots many
applications– Increasing demand in emerging economies– Foundry strength grows
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Microprocessors
• x86 AMD, Intel, Transmeta, Via• ARC ARC• ARM ARM• MicroBlaze Xilinx• MIPS MIPS• Nios Altera• PowerPC IBM, Freescale• SPARC Sun• Tensilica Stretch, Tensilica• Old stuff Everyone
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Microprocessor Applications
• Supercomputers• Workstations and servers• PCs• Embedded systems
– Automobiles– Cameras– Cell phones– Game players– MP3 players– Set-top boxes
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Computer Markets
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Microprocessor Markets
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Embedded PCs Servers
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Computer Microprocessors
• x86– AMD– Intel– Transmeta– Via
• Proprietary– IBM– Freescale– Sun
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Embedded Microprocessors
• Microprocessor advantages– Flexibility– High-volume production– Usable by programmers
• Microprocessor limitations– Too slow– Too much power
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Embedded Microprocessors
• x86 AMD, Transmeta, Via
• ARM ARM
• PowerPC IBM, Freescale
• Old stuff Everyone– Triscend (Xilinx)
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Microprocessors and ASICs
• For the ultimate in flexibility, programmers map the application onto a general-purpose microprocessor.
• For the ultimate in performance, logic designers map the application into a custom circuit.
App
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Microprocessor
ASIC
Programmers
Logic designers
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ASICs & Microprocessors
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ASICs & Microprocessors
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ASICs & Microprocessors
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Configurable Microprocessors
• ARC ARC
• Ascenium Ascenium
• MIPS MIPS
• Nios Altera
• Tensilica Stretch, Tensilica
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Microprocessor
Design-time configurable
microprocessor
Run-time reconfigurable microprocessor
Dynamically reconfigurable microprocessor
ASIC
FPGA
ARCMIPSTensilica
Stretch
Ascenium
Microprocessor Evolution
Programmers
Logic designers
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PLD Microprocessors
• Altera– Nios (soft)
• Xilinx– MicroBlaze (soft)– PicoBlaze (soft)– PowerPC (hard)
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Situation
What Value Who• FPGAs $3B logic designers• ASICs $30B logic designers• Microprocessors $40B programmers
FPGAs and microprocessors are usurping a declining ASIC market. Microprocessors (and their derivatives) will win.
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Recommendation
• Altera and Xilinx should become soft-core microcontroller companies (instead of PLD companies)
• Sell the same chips, but to a larger, programming-oriented customer base– Sell custom soft-core microcontrollers– Sell peripheral IP
“Can’t find the perfect microcontroller? Make one—today.”
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Why?
• Today’s customers are logic designers; tomorrow’s customers will be programmers– Programming is more cost effective than
logic design because it is a higher level of abstraction
– There are ten times as many customers (more programmers than logic designers)
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The Value PC
• PCs are good enough– Value PC shifts design emphasis to mobile
systems– SRAM, DRAM, and flash are unsuitable for mobile
systems– A new non-volatile memory device will emerge
• The first programmable logic company to adopt CMOS-compatible, non-volatile memory could gain a decisive advantage.
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The Value Transistor
• Today’s transistors are good enough for most applications– The value transistor favors foundries over
integrated device manufacturers– Fabs are good enough– 3D wafer stacking will emerge
• The first programmable logic company to adopt wafer stacking could gain a decisive advantage.
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Microprocessor-like
• DSPs
• Network processors
• Specialty processors
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Consequences
• Rise of mobile applications– New non-volatile memories
• Rise of foundries– Rise of soft (IP) cores– Horizontal fragmentation of integrated device
manufacturers
• Rise of non-volatile FPGAs• Rise of reconfigurable systems• Growing market for embedded microprocessors
– Tethered: traditional role– Mobile: supervisory role