1. Brief comments on coping with the impacts of a changing climate as if the future mattersMichael (Mickey) Glantz CCB, University of Colorado, BoulderAsia Pacific Graduates Youth Forum on Green Economy 25-29 September 2012, Kathmandu, NepalSEN ICIMOD CCB APN

2. UNEPs Mission 1972 to provide leadership and encouragepartnership in caring for the environment byinspiring, informing, and enabling nations andpeoples to improve their quality of lifewithout compromising that of futuregenerations. 3. Shouldnt there be a Hindsight component to a Foresight Panel? The Question: Does environmental history have a future? The Answer: Yes, if we want to know how we got to this point in time and to seek better informed guidance in the face of an uncertain future. No, if you think that history has no chance of repeating itself. 4. Climate and InequityThere are also inequities with regard to animals and other living things 5. All roads lead to Rome 6. The Challenge: Reaching Every Element of Civil Society 7. Linking or Sinkinglink scientific concerns about the future with local societal concerns todayCommunicating with civil societyabout the importance of awarenessof climate change and itsforeseeable impacts is a centralfactor in making climate changescience research findings sciencethat is usable by society, eg, usablescience 8. We need Social inventionsIdeas and concepts thatchange human behavior. 9. Social Invention Exampleshttp://clairewaghorn.wordpress.com/The Blue MarbleGlobal Change Spaceship EarthThe Space AgeSocial e-networks 10. Foreseeability: use it asa qualitative version of probability"FORESEEABLE RISK, i.e., risks whose consequences a person of ordinary prudence would reasonably expect might occurIn tort law a partys actions may be deemed negligent only where the injurious consequences of those actions were foreseeable."For example, "established by proof that the actor or person of reasonable intelligence and prudence, should reasonably have anticipated danger to others created by his or her negligent act.Focus on AOCs"Foreseeability encompasses not only that whichNot on Hotspots! the defendant foresaw, but that which the defendant ought to have foreseen."(Gifis, 1991) 11. Decisionmaking under foreseeability:to run or not to run a stop sign? 12. Make explicit what you mean by adaptation UNFCCC: adaptation refers to climate change related impacts FCCC definition:"adaptation" refers onlyto new actions inresponse to climatechanges that areattributed to greenhousegas emissions. IPCC: adaptation refers to any changes 13. Need for a better Understanding of the influences of Seasonalityglobal warming & acclimatizing seasons as weve come to expect them Like ecosystems, human activities are also influenced by the natural flow of the seasons. More so by humans, because they have expectations about that flow that really determine their responses, good or bad, to that natural flow. 14. Some living things cant adapt: who is responsible to care for them? 15. Adaptation to variability, change, extremes:no recommendations without statements about ramifications if recommendations are not followedRecommendations arejust suggestions.To increase the chancethey will beimplemented, it isnecessary to identifythe potentialconsequences of notacting on them. 16. We must identify & prepare to mitigatethe downstream impacts of an adaptation Adaptation is an on-going process,not just a one-time event. Each adaptive strategy or tactic willgenerate its own set of impacts. Societies must identify second- andthird-order impacts of adaptation(downstream impacts). 17. Pay attention to Rates of changeRates of change areas important as thechange itselfThe future is arriving earlier than expected!The rates are mostlikely to capturepolitical attention thanis the magnitude ofchange. 18. 2020 is the new 2050!Rates of change can be as important as the magnitude of change Arctic sea ice extent in 2007 was at a level not expected to occur till 2020; 13 years earlier! 19. Focus on Creeping environmental changeX Focus on creeping changes and rates of change instead of searching for a dread factor to spark policy changes. 20. The Millennium Assessmentcalls for ecosystems goods andservices for environmental wellbeing. This suggests that ecosystemshave little value if not of use tosociety. It should be reversed: Humangoods & services for ecosystemswell being. Societies need Ecosystems morethan they need societies.Human good & services for environmental well being,and NOT the other way around ! 21. Adapting to meet economic wants but not needs: (decision making, as if the future of others did not matter) Demise of the Aral Sea, Central Asia (1960-present) 22. Make explicit what you mean by Resilience:3 variations on a theme Ability to withstandthe consequences. Power to recoveryoriginal shape & size. Capacity to adaptwithout harm. 23. We may not agree on what resilience is,But we can see what it isnt !Dynamitefishingin thePhilippines 24. Resilient Adaptation as a social invention Flexible, shifting interventions Plasticity Requires innovation Requires improvisation It attempts to glimpse the future It brings stability while coping withchanges in resilience 25. Planetary geo-engineering:While there are many Plan, Bs there is no Planet B 26. Ignorance vs. Ignore-ancewhat you dont know (or ignore) can still hurt you Ignorance is notknowing something. Ignore-ance isknowing somethingand not caring about itWhich one is this? 27. Ignore-ance: paying attention onlyto pieces of information thatsupport ones views, wishes orpolicies , e.g., selective inattention 28. There is a need for early warnings aboutearly warning systems 29. Expect climate and other surprises: some surprises are expectable (eg, foreseeable) A key element of surprise is theunexpected. However, not all surprises areunexpected. I was semi-surprised,almost surprised,hardly surprised, alittle surprised, sort ofsurprised, somewhatsurprisedThere are foreseeable surprisesHurricane Katrina 2005, USA 30. 2011: Earthquake, Tsunami, Nuclear meltdown,nuclear fallout: impact of GHG emissionsThis was a complexhumanitarian crisis:A Quadruple Whammy Any one of these events would be a disaster in its own right but the combination was truly unexpectable, even outside the range of a conceivable scenario 31. Societies are constantly changing:Climate is not the only thing changingShanghai Harbor19882004 32. Dubai in 1990Dubai in 2007 33. Identify Lessons about environmental Lessons learned about lessons learned After each disaster lessons are identified and reported. Similar disasters also end up with many of the earlier identified lessons being re- stated. Lessons identified are not lessons learned. The phrase lessons learned is part of the problem because people think someone is applying the lessons but in reality no one has the responsibility to do so. 34. Planet Earth is now Global Warmings Ground zerono place to hide (b) In industrial and agrarian societies(a) On all continents(c) Where humans and ecosystems meet Especially inSeems governments vulnerable ecosystemsare choosing option (a) 35. Identify the Bright sides of climateGovernments must focus onthe bright side of climate notjust on its adversities (darkside). Focus on enhancingclimate-related benefits Better seasonal forecasts Better use of indigenous local science and coping Better food storage facilities Reintroducing the lost crops 36. Climate-related ideas that demand better understanding1. Climate-proofing2. Food security3. Ground zero4. Deniers5. Extremes6. The verb to be7. Ecosystems goods & services8. Drivers (of change)9. Mitigation (of greenhouse gas emissions)10. Adaptation (to climate change)11. Geo-engineering12. Purposely changing the atmospheres thermostat 37. My view about these climate-related ideas1. Climate-proofing --- misleading2. Food security --- misnomer3. Ground zero --- misfocused4. Deniers --- misapplied5. Extremes --- misdirected6. The verb is --- misused7. Ecosystems goods & services --- misconception8. Drivers (of change) --- misdirecting9. Mitigation (of greenhouse gas emissions) --- misarticulated10. Adaptation (to climate change) --- misunderstood11. Geo-engineering --- misadventure12. Purposely changing the atmospheres thermostat --- misguided 38. Why question these climate-related concepts 1. Climate-proofing --- misleading; cant be totally immune from climate 2. Food security --- misnomer; its really a food-insecure world 3. Ground zero --- misfocused; every place sees itself as ground zero 4. Deniers --- misapplied; most skeptics are not deniers 5. Extremes --- misdirected; this overlooks high impact, non-extremes 6. The verb is --- misused; can be used to generate ambiguity 7. Ecosystems goods & services --- misconception; ecosystems needprotection 8. Drivers (of change) --- misdirected; underlying causes are as importantas proximate causes or catalysts 9. Mitigation (of greenhouse gas emissions) --- misarticulated; publicdefines it as softening not as reducing CO2 emissions 10. Adaptation (to climate change) --- misunderstood; too many definitions 11. Geo-engineering --- misadventure; an attempt to by pass the problem and avoid taking responsibility 12. Purposely changing the atmospheres thermostat --- misguided; cannot choose a CO2 level to return to in order to pick the climate you want