La modération salariale: le point de vue des (néo-)kaleckiens
Michel Husson Reykjavik, 16th may 2013 Quelle norme salariale pour la zone euro : coordination ou...
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Transcript of Michel Husson Reykjavik, 16th may 2013 Quelle norme salariale pour la zone euro : coordination ou...
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Michel Husson
Reykjavik, 16th may 2013
Quelle norme salariale pour la zone euro : coordination ou dévaluation
interne ?
Which wage rule for the euro area: coordination or internal devaluation?
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1.Why high wages are not the
source of the crisisand trade imbalances
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Unit labour cost, price and wage shareGreece 2000-2010
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“Assessing the Links Between Wage Setting, Competitiveness, and Imbalances”European Commission Note for the Economic Policy Committee , 2011
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If there is a relation between unitary labour costs and export performance, it is weak and of a secondary order of magnitude (…) and hence the former cannot be the cause of the latter.European Commission, European Competitiveness Report 2010.
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2.Why low wages are not
a way to restorecompetitiveness
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Less wages more competitiveness?
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NO ! Recession less imports less trade deficit
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Wage Bargaining Framework:employment-friendly reforms
decrease minimum wagesdecrease the bargaining coverage or (automatic) extension of collective agreements.
reform the bargaining system in a less centralized way, for instance by
•removing or limiting the "favourability principle"
•introducing/extending the possibility to derogate from higher level agreements
•negotiate firm-level agreements.
overall reduction in the wagesetting power of trade unions.
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3.
Productivity, wages and pricesGermany / France
A sectoral approach
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France-Germany: manuf vs services
Productivity: same structure
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France-Germany: manuf vs services
Wages: a gap in Germany
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France-Germany: manuf vs services
Prices: a gap in France
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France-Germany: manuf vs servicesWage share: a gap between Germany and France
in the manufacturing sector
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4.
In search of an optimal wage rule:An incompatibility triangle?
The classical rule (a reminder):Wage = price + productivity
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An incompatibility triangle?
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Is there a way out of the triangle?
1. A wage rule: an overall rise of wages according to the general price index and the average productivity
fair distribution of productivity gains
2. A “price rule” to obtain an equalization of profit rates between sectors: the relative sectoral prices should vary inversely with the relative sectoral productivities
constant profit share in all sectors
3. transfers and investments (structural funds) in the productive sector to ensure a faster productivity growth in the catching-up countries
convergence of inflation rates between countries
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Very tentative conclusions The underlying logic of the Commission's recommendations is to question the social model(s). It leads to a prolonged recession, social regression and generalized hyper-competition.
European integration was truncated, but the exit from the euro could cost even more.
A refondation of Europe needs a coordinated refusal of the counter-reforms and a proposal for the implementation of solidarity rules. But it is “not an easy path” but a “demanding climb.”