Michael ZgurovskyNational Technical University of Ukraine“Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”zgurovsm@hotmail.com

Knowledge Security and Knowledge Security and Responsible Science as Responsible Science as

Integral Components of a Integral Components of a Safe and Secure of Global Safe and Secure of Global

Society Society

1

Properties:Properties: Development of the knowledge of "how to operate“ type

The main dimension of IS is technological;

Transformation of information into the digital form;

Storage of great volumes of information (data bases);

Transfer of great volumes of digital information over distances by Internet;

Emergence of network interaction between people;

2

INFORMATION SOCIETY INFORMATION SOCIETY (has arisen in 80-90-(has arisen in 80-90-ss of last century) of last century)

3

Properties:Properties:Additionally to knowledge type "how to operate" the knowledge "how to co-exist" has started to be developed;

Dimensions: technological, social, ethnic, political;

Mass production of the new, harmonized knowledge by IKT; Scientific knowledge became productive forces of K-society;

An integral vector of development of the K-society is quality and safety of people life.

KNOWLEDGE KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY SOCIETY (has arisen on the boundary of the XX-XXIst (has arisen on the boundary of the XX-XXIst

centuries)centuries)

Iks=Iia+If+IaIks=Iia+If+IaIia - Iia - Intellectual Assets Index;;If - If - Foresightedness Index;;Ia - Ia - Advancement Index

Iks=Iia+If+IaIks=Iia+If+IaIia - Iia - Intellectual Assets Index;;If - If - Foresightedness Index;;Ia - Ia - Advancement Index

K-Society Gauging MatrixK-Society Gauging Matrix((United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs 20052005))

IiaIia

IfIf

IaIa

IksIks

5

IndexesIndexes IndicatorsIndicators

IiaIia Intellectual Assets

Index

Years of schooling (years)

Young population getting education (% of 0-14 age group)

Level of information granting to the population by the Internet, telephones, newspapers, magazines

If If Foresightedness

Index

Gov’t Health Expenditures (% of total gov’t exp)R & D expenditures (% of GDP)

Military expenditures (% of GDP) Pupils per teacher in primary school

Corruption perception (10-point scale)

Ia Ia Advancement

Index

Child mortality (children under 5 years per 1000 births)

Income Inequality (Gini Index)

Part of ecologically protected territory (% of the total territory)

CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita)

Indexes ofIndexes of К- К-SocietySociety

5 Leading countries by K-5 Leading countries by K-society Indexsociety IndexRank Countries

1 Sweden2 Denmark3 Norway4 Finland5 Switzerland

7

Rank Countries6 Japan

7 Germany

10 Great Britain

12 USA

14 Canada

15 France

21 Italy

Not included in Top 45

Russia, China

G8 Counties by K-society G8 Counties by K-society indexindex

Disharmony between knowledge Disharmony between knowledge "how to operate" and "how to co-"how to operate" and "how to co-

existexist

8

Top 5 CountriesTop 5 Countriesby by Foresightedness IndexForesightedness Index

1.Denmark If=0.8762.Austria If=0.8283.Slovakia If=0.7594.Costa Rika If=0.7595.Switzerland If=0.750

G8 CountriesG8 Countriesby by Foresightedness IndexForesightedness Index

8. Germany If=0.77311.Great Brittan If=0.71214.Japan If=0.68315.France If=0.68225.Italy If=0.66237.Canada If=0.55038.USA If=0,547Russia not included in Top 45

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1

500 14000 28000 55000

If

GDP per capita

9

Comparison by Intellectual Assets Index (Ііа)

Country ІіаYears of

schooling

Young population

getting education

(% of 0-14 age

group)

Newspapers per 1,000 pop.

Internet users

per 10000 pop.

Main phone

lines per 100 pop.

Cell phones per

100 pop.

Europe-5 0.704 15.92 18.17 426.8 4897 68.53 78.3 Ukraine 0.576 11.5 17.05 54 3900 50.3 60.38

Сomparison by Advancement Index (Іa)

Country ІaR & D

expenditures

(% of GDP)

Military expenditures

(% of GDP)

Gov’t Health Expenditures

(% of total gov’t exp)

Pupils per teacher in primary school

Corruption perception

(10-point scale)

Europe-5 0.761 2.80 1.760 13.0 11.3 9.22

Ukraine 0.383 0.95 1.793 7.6 20.0 2.30Comparison by Foresightedness Index (Іf)

Country ІfChild mortality

(children under 5 years per 1000 births)

GINI Index

Part of ecologically protected territory

(% of the total territory)

CO2 emissions

(metric tons per capita)

Europe-5 0.735 4.4 26.80 8.64 8.9

Ukraine 0.620 20 28.96 1.00 6.2

Comparison of Ukraine with Europe-5 by K-Society Comparison of Ukraine with Europe-5 by K-Society IndicatorsIndicators

(Europ-5: (Europ-5: Finland, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, United Kingdom)

The possible Ukrainian Strategy of The possible Ukrainian Strategy of Approaching to K-SocietyApproaching to K-Society

10

– – TO ACCELERATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FIRST TO ACCELERATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FIRST STAGE (INFORMATION SOCIETY) BY MEANS OF STAGE (INFORMATION SOCIETY) BY MEANS OF INVOLVEMENT OF INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL INVOLVEMENT OF INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL

INVESTMENTS AND CARRYING OUT PRINCIPALLY INVESTMENTS AND CARRYING OUT PRINCIPALLY IMPORTANT INSTITUTIONAL TRANSFORMATIONSIMPORTANT INSTITUTIONAL TRANSFORMATIONS; ;

– – TO MOBILIZE IN THE UNIFIED COMPLEX POLITICAL TO MOBILIZE IN THE UNIFIED COMPLEX POLITICAL AND PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS OF THE STATE WITH THE AND PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS OF THE STATE WITH THE PURPOSE OF PRIORITY DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT PURPOSE OF PRIORITY DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT STAGE – K-SOCIETY, THE MAIN OBJECTIVE OF WHICH STAGE – K-SOCIETY, THE MAIN OBJECTIVE OF WHICH SHOULD BE ENSURING HIGH QUALITY AND SECURITY SHOULD BE ENSURING HIGH QUALITY AND SECURITY

OF LIFE FOR ALL CITIZENS OF UKRAINE.OF LIFE FOR ALL CITIZENS OF UKRAINE.

MAIN GLOBAL THREATS OF XXI CENTURY

Energy& Resources crisis

Global Diseases

Humanitarian Cataclysms

Environ-mental Problems

Growing Biocapacity/Consumption Misbalance

2007 20922050

↑ ↑ Consumption Production ↓↓

oil gas uranium 235

years

Global ReductionGlobal Reductionof Natural Energy Resourcesof Natural Energy Resources

//Hermann Scheer – Energy is a driving force for our civilization – SOLAR ADVOCATE, 2005

ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS

-

- Growing pollution of

environment;

- Global warming;

- Climate change;

- Natural and Anthropogenicdisasters;

- Limited access to the potable waterhttp://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=45069

Temperature anomalies for Temperature anomalies for the Russian Federation the Russian Federation from July 20–27, 2010from July 20–27, 2010

TuberculosisMalaria

Years

Cancer

Ischemicheart disease

Cerebral vascular disease (stroke)

HIV/AIDS

Other infectiousdiseases

The World Health Statistics 2009The World Health Statistics 2009

Vulnerability to Global DiseasesVulnerability to Global Diseases

//World Health Organization: http://apps.who.int/whosis/data/Search.jsp

Biological DisbalanceBiological Disbalance

Ecological debtor and creditor countries, 2005

Source: Living Planet Report 2008 Link: http://assets.panda.org/downloads/living_planet_report_2008.pdf

Gap ≈ 14 BillionGlobal HectaresGap ≈ 14 BillionGlobal Hectares

UN World Population Projections, 1950-2050UN World Population Projections, 1950-2050

‘INFORMATIONBOOM’

0,9 ZB0,9 ZB

35 ZB35 ZB

Gap 20 ZB2020

Zettabyte = 1021 bytes

ZB

Information Size > Storage AvailableSource: IDC Digital Universe Study 2010Link: http://www.emc.com/collateral/demos/microsites/idc-digital-universe/iview.htm

0,25 0,25 ZBZB

15 ZB15 ZB

Threat 1 (ES)

Threat 10 (ND)Threat 2 (FB)

Country Sustainability

FBFB°°NDND°°

ESES°°

3

1

3)(

n

l

ojlj TrrT

- Remoteness to the ThreatsTotality (Minkovsky Norm)

Impact Analysis of the Totality of Global ThreatsImpact Analysis of the Totality of Global Threats

Isec =

ThreatsTotality

- Security Index (Minkovsky Norm)

- Security Index (Minkovsky Norm)

3

1

3)(

n

l

ojlj TrrT

1. Data Preparation1. Data Preparation

ND)SFGWWACP,CM,CD,GINI,FB,(ES=rTj

,,,,

jkjk rTrTKK

4. Klasterization4. Klasterization

3. Calculation of the Remotness to the Threats Totality 3. Calculation of the Remotness to the Threats Totality

ESES – Energy SecurityFBFB – Footprint and Biocapacity Misbalance GINIGINI – InequalityGDGD – Global DiseasesCMCM – Child MortalityCPCP – Corruption PerceptionWAWA – Water Access GW GW – Global WarmingSF SF – State FragilityNDND – Natural Disasters

ESES – Energy SecurityFBFB – Footprint and Biocapacity Misbalance GINIGINI – InequalityGDGD – Global DiseasesCMCM – Child MortalityCPCP – Corruption PerceptionWAWA – Water Access GW GW – Global WarmingSF SF – State FragilityNDND – Natural Disasters

2. Normalization2. Normalization

)NDSFGWWA,,CP,CM,CD,GINIFB,(ES=orT oooooooooo

j,,,

Isec =

Impact Analysis of the Totality of Global Threats Impact Analysis of the Totality of Global Threats on the Sustainabilityon the Sustainability 18

10 leader Countries in terms of Security of 10 leader Countries in terms of Security of K-SocietyK-Society

G8 Countries in Terms of G8 Countries in Terms of Security of K-SocietySecurity of K-Society

20

BRICS Countries in terms of BRICS Countries in terms of Security of K-SocietySecurity of K-Society

21

10 Least Safe Countries10 Least Safe Countries

22

ISO Country Security

Rank

Secu

rity

Ind

ex (

Min

ko

wski

No

rm)

Global Threats

En

erg

y S

ecu

rity

In

dex

Fo

otp

rin

t an

d b

iocap

acit

y B

ala

nce

Ineg

uality

(G

ini I

nd

ex)

Co

rru

pti

on

Perc

ep

tio

n

Wate

r A

ccess

CO

2 E

mis

sio

n

Ch

ild

Mo

rtality

Natu

ral C

ata

str

ofs

Sta

te F

rag

ilit

y

Glo

bal

De

sast

ers

HND Honduras 97 0,26 0,61 0,51 0,17 0,29 0,43 0,66 0,51 0,56 0,60 0,54

DZA Algeria 98 0,23 0,30 0,45 0,57 0,33 0,38 0,59 0,50 0,35 0,54 0,50

BGD Bangladesh 99 0,23 0,48 0,51 0,65 0,29 0,33 0,69 0,37 0,71 0,67 0,39

UZB Uzbekistan 100 0,22 0,30 0,46 0,54 0,22 0,45 0,53 0,47 0,34 0,56 0,58

PHL Philippines 101 0,20 0,58 0,47 0,39 0,29 0,52 0,67 0,49 0,96 0,66 0,48

PAK Pakistan 102 0,19 0,55 0,49 0,62 0,28 0,51 0,67 0,19 0,78 0,87 0,35

THA Thailand 103 0,19 0,38 0,43 0,22 0,40 0,64 0,55 0,62 0,94 0,92 0,54

MDG Madagascar 104 0,19 0,70 0,61 0,33 0,30 0,03 0,70 0,33 0,78 0,92 0,34

ZAF South Africa 105 0,18 0,51 0,43 0,17 0,51 0,52 0,37 0,31 0,41 0,30 0,07

What should happen with the What should happen with the world civilization if its behavior world civilization if its behavior

is subordinated to the is subordinated to the paradigm of unlimited paradigm of unlimited

consumption?consumption?

Possible Scenarios Generated by Totality Possible Scenarios Generated by Totality of Global Threatsof Global Threats

23

««In the geological history of biosphere human beings will have great future, if they realize it

and do not use their mind and labor for self-destruction» Vladimir Vernadsky, 1947Vladimir Vernadsky, 1947

«If the mankind is not going to radically «If the mankind is not going to radically change its behavior on the Planetary scale, then change its behavior on the Planetary scale, then

in the middle of XXI century there may appear in the middle of XXI century there may appear conditions under which people cannot exist» conditions under which people cannot exist» Nikita Moiseyev, Nikita Moiseyev,

2000 2000

The answer to this question can be The answer to this question can be found in the works of two scientists: found in the works of two scientists:

24

25

The statistical data for Vernadsky’s and The statistical data for Vernadsky’s and Moiseev postulats corresponded to the constant Moiseev postulats corresponded to the constant paradigm of the mankind existence: paradigm of the mankind existence: “Unlimited “Unlimited satisfaction of its needs and requirements” satisfaction of its needs and requirements”

If we assume that the mankind will change If we assume that the mankind will change the paradigm of its existence on the Planetary the paradigm of its existence on the Planetary scale for K-Society one: scale for K-Society one: «Harmonious «Harmonious coexistence», coexistence», then mankind will find new then mankind will find new prospects for prolongation of its mission on the prospects for prolongation of its mission on the Planet.Planet.

What is the way out for mankind for the What is the way out for mankind for the situation?situation?

K-SOCIETY

MISSION

“To facilitate S&T development in accordance with new challenges and priorities of the international science with the purpose of formation of Safe and Secure Global Society"

Proposal:

Thank Thank you you !!

27