Miami, 10 May 2016667b87d8-2d23-44... · Summary •Commodity prices now close to pre-supercycle...

23
2016 Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference Miami, 10 May 2016

Transcript of Miami, 10 May 2016667b87d8-2d23-44... · Summary •Commodity prices now close to pre-supercycle...

Page 1: Miami, 10 May 2016667b87d8-2d23-44... · Summary •Commodity prices now close to pre-supercycle levels •Record low sector margins are setting the scene for the next price upswing

2016 Global Metals, Mining & Steel ConferenceMiami, 10 May 2016

Page 2: Miami, 10 May 2016667b87d8-2d23-44... · Summary •Commodity prices now close to pre-supercycle levels •Record low sector margins are setting the scene for the next price upswing

Forward looking statements

This document contains statements that are, or may be deemed to be, “forward looking statements” which are prospective in nature. These forward looking statements may be

identified by the use of forward looking terminology, or the negative thereof such as “outlook”, "plans", "expects" or "does not expect", "is expected", "continues", "assumes", "is subject

to", "budget", "scheduled", "estimates", "aims", "forecasts", "risks", "intends", "positioned", "predicts", "anticipates" or "does not anticipate", or "believes", or variations of such words or

comparable terminology and phrases or statements that certain actions, events or results "may", "could", "should", “shall”, "would", "might" or "will" be taken, occur or be achieved.

Such statements are qualified in their entirety by the inherent risks and uncertainties surrounding future expectations. Forward-looking statements are not based on historical facts, but

rather on current predictions, expectations, beliefs, opinions, plans, objectives, goals, intentions and projections about future events, results of operations, prospects, financial condition

and discussions of strategy.

By their nature, forward looking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Glencore’s control. Forward looking statements are not

guarantees of future performance and may and often do differ materially from actual results. Important factors that could cause these uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those

discussed in Glencore’s Annual Report 2015.

Neither Glencore nor any of its associates or directors, officers or advisers, provides any representation, assurance or guarantee that the occurrence of the events expressed or

implied in any forward-looking statements in this document will actually occur. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements which only speak as

of the date of this document. Other than in accordance with its legal or regulatory obligations (including under the UK Listing Rules and the Disclosure and Transparency Rules of the

Financial Conduct Authority and the Rules Governing the Listing of Securities on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited and the Listing Requirements of the Johannesburg Stock

Exchange Limited), Glencore is not under any obligation and Glencore and its affiliates expressly disclaim any intention, obligation or undertaking to update or revise any forward

looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. This document shall not, under any circumstances, create any implication that there has been

no change in the business or affairs of Glencore since the date of this document or that the information contained herein is correct as at any time subsequent to its date.

No statement in this document is intended as a profit forecast or a profit estimate and no statement in this document should be interpreted to mean that earnings per Glencore share

for the current or future financial years would necessarily match or exceed the historical published earnings per Glencore share.

This document does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for any securities. The making of this

document does not constitute a recommendation regarding any securities.

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Summary

• Commodity prices now close to pre-supercycle levels

• Record low sector margins are setting the scene for the next price upswing

• Current margins cannot sustain current production levels over medium-term

• Top 5 Diversified capex has fallen from a peak of $71bn in 2012 to $24bn in 2016F

• Structural deficits are returning, led by zinc

• Supply challenges for copper and zinc remain due to resource quality and scarcity at current prices

• We should all reflect on lessons from last cycle

• Return on the $1 trillion invested 2003-15 will be dictated largely by management actions from now

• Growth needs to be redefined as cash flow per share, not production volume

• Glencore is well positioned for the future

• Ongoing de-leveraging is progressing to plan

• Free cash flow >$3bn(1) at spot prices

• Our industrial business is competitively positioned for current low prices

• Our cash flows are underpinned by our unrivalled marketing business

• We produce the “right” commodities

3Notes: (1) Based on industrial unit costs on slide 14 and associated volumes as footnoted on slide 14; mid-point of marketing guidance on slide 12 plus $200M of

marketing D&A. Prices as of 26 February 2016, after taxes and interest of $1.5bn, industrial capex of $3.5bn and $0.1bn of marketing capex. Excludes working capital

changes.

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Where are we?

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Where are we?

5

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jan 03 Feb 06 Mar 09 Apr 12 May 15 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Industry margins are at record lows(1) … … along with commodity prices(2)

Copper

AluminiumNickel

Met Coal

Iron ore

Thermal CoalZinc

Notes: (1) Bernstein European Metals and Mining – January 25, 2016, Mining Industry Average EBITDA Margin. (2) Indexed to 2003, Source: Citi, Morgan Stanley,

Bloomberg, Wood Mackenzie

2003 to 2015

average: 38%

Indexed: 2003=100

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How did we get here?

6

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Diversifieds: $470bnBulks: $140bnBase Metals: $196bnPrecious: $199bn

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

The sector invested > $1 trillion of capex ($b)(1)

Supply in most commodities has increased materially since 2003(2)

Notes: (1) Cumulative capex from 2003 segmented by company type, Source: Citi Research, Morgan Stanley. (2) Annual supply indexed to 2003, Source Citi,

Morgan Stanley, Wood Mackenzie, USGS

+110% Aluminium

+80% Iron ore+79% Thermal coal

+72% Lead

+79% Coking coal

+47% Copper+47% Nickel+45% Zinc

Indexed: 2003=100

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How did we get here?

7

… helping to lower mining unit costs(1) … But less than $350bn has been generated in free cash flow as volume driven price declines more than offset lower costs

Notes: (1) C1 cash costs (50th percentile) indexed to 2003, Source Bernstein, Wood Mackenzie, Morgan Stanley. (2) Sector annual free cash flow from 2003 to 2015

- defined as operating cash flow less reported capex. Source Citi Research, Factset.

-20

0

20

40

60

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 20152003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Copper

Iron ore

Zinc

Thermal

coal

Indexed: 2003=100

$ billion operating cash flow less capex

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How did we get here?

8

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Alu

min

ium

Coppe

r

Zin

c

Le

ad

Nic

kel

Iron

Ore

Cokin

g c

oal

The

rma

l C

oal

2003-2015 CAGR2016F

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

Alu

min

ium

Coppe

r

Zin

c

Le

ad

Nic

kel

Iron

Ore

20152016F

Demand is still positive for base metals(1)… … helping to rebalance supply with demand(2)

Notes: (1) Annual demand growth, Source: Wood Mackenzie, Morgan Stanley, Citi Research, Glencore estimates. (2) Market balance of refined supply and demand

for Al, Cu, Zn, Pb and Ni, Source: Morgan Stanley, Citi Research

Surplus

Deficit

Market balance kt (Mt for Iron ore)

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The future can be different

• Sector fundamentals remain attractive

• Capex of $1 trillion has generally been invested in long life assets

• Sector has reasonable barriers to entry

• Miners have far greater flexibility on growth capex than any other sector

• Long-term demand outlook for commodities remains positive

• Current reinvestment is insufficient to maintain current production levels over the medium term

• Top 5 Diversified capex has fallen from a peak of $71bn in 2012 to under $24bn in 2016F

• Supply challenges for copper and zinc remain underpinned by resource quality and scarcity at current prices

• Structural deficits returning, led by zinc

• Recipe for better returns

• Recognise damage done when capital is mis-allocated

• Accept impact of production volume growth on pricing

• Accept that volume growth cannot be an end in itself

• Redefine “growth” to mean cash flows/earnings, not production volumes

• Focus investment decisions on actual cash flows not merely NPV

• Properly align management incentives to encourage rational behaviour

• Identify more cooperative opportunities (infrastructure) to increase overall capital efficiency

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We are well positioned for the future

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Prepared for current and even lower prices

11

Copper 25%

Zinc 12%

Nickel 5%

Coal 23%

Oil 2%

Marketing metals 14%

Marketing energy 9%

Marketing agri 6%

Corp and other 4%

Notes: (1) Source: 2015 Annual Report, commodity segmented by EBITDA, geography segmented by destination of the sales counterparty (2) See notes from

Preliminary results presentation 1 March 2016 on Slide 17 and Slide 12

Americas 19%Europe 32%Asia 38%Africa 4%Oceania 7%

Earnings diversified by commodity(1) …• Decisive management of our balance sheet and asset portfolio:

• repositioning our capital structure for a lower price environment – improvement to c.2x ND/EBITDA by year end

• maximising cash flow from our suite of low-cost industrial assets

• Earnings underpinned by our highly cash generative marketing business

• Free cash flow >$3bn at spot prices(2)

• And we remain comfortably cash flow positive at materially lower prices

• Our production cuts preserve the value of our resources for the future

• Significant low-cost optionality in the right price environment: +300kt Cu, +400kt Zn, +100kt Pb, +15Mt coal

• Not all commodities are equal

• Our key commodities are in deficit or transitioning towards deficit

… and geography

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Long-term

guidance

range:

$2.7-3.7bn

Historical

guidance

range:

$2-3bn

Unrivalled marketing business and geographic footprint

• Marketing earnings are generated from the global handling, blending, distribution and optimisation of PHYSICAL commodities, augmented by arbitrage opportunities – all of which are less sensitive to flat price movements

• Minimal fixed assets/capex required

• Relatively low effective tax rate

• 2016E EBIT guidance range of $2.4 to $2.7bn

• A unique, low-risk defensive earnings driver

• Working capital’s correlation with commodity prices ensures cash flow is insulated in periods of lower prices

• Average VaR (1 day 95%) of $35M in 2015, representing less than 0.1% of shareholders’ equity

Marketing EBIT ($M)

12

299

295

342

283

227

153

Interest

expense

allocation ($M)

0 1'000 2'000 3'000 4'000

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016F Guidance $2.4-2.7bn

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• Targeting 2016 Net funding and Net debt of $32-33bn and $17-18bn respectively

• We remain focused on preserving our investment grade credit ratings

• Targeting BBB+/Baa1 capital structure over the medium term

• Scope and commitment to do more if required

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Debt bridge ($bn)

Repositioning our capital structure – asset sales on targetD

ec-1

4

Net re

ductio

n

Dec-1

5

An

tapaccay s

tream

Fu

rther

asset

dis

posals

Reductio

n in

WC

and L

T lo

ans

Fre

e c

ash f

low

Dec-1

6 E

Dec-1

7 E

Net

funding

$49.7

Net

funding

$41.2

Net

debt

$25.9

Net

debt

$17

-18

RM

I $15.3

Net

funding

$32-33bn

RM

I $15

Net

debt

$30.5

RM

I $19.2

$1

$4-5

c. $3

$0.5

Net

funding

<$30bn

RM

I $15

Net

debt

c.$

15

$8.5

• $2.6bn of asset disposals announced in April 2016:

• $2.5bn for 40% equity stake in Glencore Agricultural unit

• $100M for disposal of Komarovskoye mine in Kazakhstan

• Completion of remaining sales processes expected this quarter – likely proceeds include a mixture of:

• Cobar and Lomas Bayas copper assets

• Additional precious metals monetisation

• G Rail infrastructure in Australia

• Cash proceeds expected in H2

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14

Debt bridge ($bn)

Notes: (1) 2016E copper unit cost calculated on forecast production of 1.24Mt (excludes c.150kt of copper produced as by-product by other divisions (zinc and nickel)). Costs include a credit for

custom metallurgical EBITDA. Costs include TC/RCs and freight. (2) 2016E zinc unit cost calculated on forecast production of 1.03Mt (excludes c.65kt of zinc produced as by-product by other

divisions) adjusted for 85% payability, resulting in payable production of 876kt. Zinc cost includes benefit of Kazzinc averaging as well as a credit to account for custom metallurgical EBITDA. (3)

NEWC adjusted for portfolio mix. Margin can be applied across the full forecast production of 130mt. (4) 2016E nickel unit cost calculated on forecast production of 100kt, which excludes Koniambo.

(5) See notes from Preliminary results presentation 1 March 2016 on Slide 17 and Slide 12 for calculation

Repositioning our capital structure – annualised cash flow generation remains >$3bn at spot prices(5)

Dec-1

4

Net re

ductio

n

Dec-1

5

An

tapaccay s

tream

Fu

rther

asset

dis

posals

Reductio

n in

WC

and L

T lo

ans

Fre

e c

ash f

low

Dec-1

6 E

Dec-1

7 E

Net

funding

$49.7

Net

funding

$41.2

Net

debt

$25.9

Net

debt

$17

-18

RM

I $15.3

Net

funding

$32-33bn

RM

I $15

Net

debt

$30.5

RM

I $19.2

$1

$4-5

c. $3

$0.5

Net

funding

<$30bn

RM

I $15

Net

debt

c.$

15

$8.5

143136

104

2014A 2015A 2016E

• Marketing and Industrial Asset operational and cost performance in line with expectations and cost guidance over Q1 2016

• Impact of a stronger US$ over the year to date largely offset by higher by-product credits

• Ongoing focus on cost efficiencies / reductions via supplier / contractor rates, labour optimisation, consumables reviews etc.

41 41

27

2014A 2015A 2016E

47

44

39

2014A 2015A 2016E

310

269295

2014A 2015A 2016E

Copper costs (c/lb)(1) Coal cost ($/t)(3)

Nickel costs (c/lb)(4)Zinc costs (c/lb)(2)

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The future can be different

The future can be different, but the ultimate outcome will be heavily influenced by actions from here onwards

• Capital has not been lost, only the return is uncertain

• Earnings potential can be vastly improved by accepting lessons from 2003-15

• Accept that volume growth adversely impacts price – focus on average not marginal NPV

• Accept that volume growth is not an end in itself – value creation requires cash flow

• Capital allocation need to be more conservative and based on actual cash flows

• Starting point should be that doing nothing on growth is often best outcome

• Shareholders have a vital role to play in this process

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Q&A

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Glencore background

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Glencore at a glance

18

Metals and minerals Energy productsAgricultural

products

• Copper

• Zinc/Lead

• Aluminium

• Ferroalloys

• Nickel

• Iron Ore

• Coal

• Oil

Grains

Oils/Oilseeds

Sugar

Cotton

Exploration

Mining /

producing

Processing /

refining

Logistics

Marketing &

trading

Traditional

miners Traders

Exploration

Mining /

producing

Processing /

refining

Logistics

Marketing &

trading

Key facts and figures

• Leading integrated producer and marketer of commodities, with worldwide activities in the production, refinement, processing, third party procurement, storage and transport of those products

• More than 90 offices in over 50 countries; operations comprise around 150 mining and metallurgical sites, oil production assets, farms and agricultural facilities. We employ approximately 160,000 people, including contractors

• Listed on London, Hong Kong and Johannesburg Stock Exchanges

• Current rating BBB- (stable) / Baa3 (stable)Key competitive strengths

• Scale and commodity diversity

• Unique business model, fully-integrated along the supply chain

• Ability to respond to changing industry dynamics

• Core competence in commodity marketing, logistics, risk management and financing

• Leading industrial asset portfolio of diversified operations with strong growth prospects

• Diversified position across multiple commodities, suppliers and customers

• World-class management team, entrepreneurial culture and track record of value creation

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2.74

2.49

2.06

1.88

1.58

1.32

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sustainability and governance

Safety

• Regrettably 8 fatalities from 2 events (10 fatalities from

7 events in 2015)

– 2 fatal events both at “Focus Assets”

– Katanga Copper Mine, 7 fatalities in the slope failure

event

• Q1 LTIFR 1.17 (1.32 in 2015), 11% improvement

• Q1 TRIFR 4.55 (5.06 in 2015), 10% improvement

• Continued effort on ensuring leading practice input at

our “Focus Assets”

Governance

• Significant enhancements in our approach to

sustainability and governance implemented in 2015,

including Water Strategy, the Group’s HSEC strategy

and corporate policies and our Crisis and Emergency

Management Policy

External recognition and memberships

• Joined the Plenary of the Voluntary Principles on

Security and Human Rights in late March

• ICMM, UN Global Compact, EITI, PACI (Partnering

Against Corruption Initiative – World Economic Forum)

19

LTIFR(1) 2010 to 2015

Note: (1) Lost time incidents (LTIs) are recorded when an employee or contractor is unable to work following an incident. In the past Glencore recorded LTIs which resulted in lost days from the next

calendar day after the incident whilst Xstrata recorded LTIs which resulted in lost days from the next rostered day after the incident - therefore the combined LTI figure is not based on data of

consistent definition (historically, prior to merger). From 2014 Glencore records LTIs when an incident results in lost days from the first rostered day absent after the day of the injury. The day of the

injury is not included. LTIFR is the total number of LTIs recorded per million working hours. LTIs do not include Restricted Work Injuries (RWI) and fatalities (fatalities were included up to 2013).

Historic data has been restated to exclude fatalities and to reflect data collection improvements.

52% reduction

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Where we operate

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Our values

Safety

Our first priority in the workplace is to protect the health and

well-being of all of our people. We take a proactive approach

to health and safety; our goal is continuous improvement in the

prevention of occupational disease and injuries

Entrepreneurialism

Our approach fosters the highest level of professionalism,

personal ownership and entrepreneurial spirit in all our people

while never compromising on their safety and well-being. This

is important to our success and the superior returns we aim to

achieve for all our stakeholders

Simplicity

We aim to achieve our key deliverables efficiently as a path to

industry-leading returns, while maintaining a clear focus on

excellence, quality, sustainability and continuous improvement

in everything we do

Responsibility

We recognise that our activities can have an impact on our

society and the environment. We care profoundly about our

performance in relation to environmental protection, human

rights and health and safety

Openness

We value open relationships and communication based on integrity, co-operation, transparency and mutual benefit, with our people, our customers, our suppliers, governments and society in general

21

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Our business model

Explore, acquire &

develop

Our exploration activities

are near to our existing

assets, supporting the

development of brownfield

sites. This approach lowers

our risk profile and lets us

use existing infrastructure,

realise synergies and

control costs. Each

industrial investment

opportunity is evaluated

individually and on its

potential to strengthen our

marketing activities or

industrial assets. Our

approach allows us to build

on our economies of scale,

our familiarity with a

political and cultural

landscape and our

understanding of

commodity dynamics.

Extract & produce

We mine and beneficiate

minerals across a broad

range of commodities,

mining techniques and

countries, for processing

and/or refining at our own

facilities or for sale to third

parties. Extraction and

production of

commodities involves a

long-term commitment

and exposure to risks

relating to commodity

prices, project

development, changes in

sovereign legislation and

community acceptance.

An integral part of our

business is earning our

social licence to operate

from local communities

and host governments.

Process & refine

Our expertise and

technology advantages

in processing and

refining activities

optimise our end

products for a wider

customer base. These

facilities provide

volumes that are utilised

by our marketing teams,

increase our flexibility

and optionality, provide

security of supply and

enable us to gain

valuable market

knowledge. We

purchase and process

additional products as

required from smaller

operators that do not

enjoy the same

economies of scale.

Blending & optimising

Our presence at every

stage of the commodity

chain enables us to

blend and optimise

products, through using

both our own and third

party volumes, and

means we are better

placed to meet the exact

requirements of our

customers. Working with

third party suppliers

provides a fuller

oversight of supply.

This allows us to gain

valuable market and

local knowledge and to

better understand

the balance between

supply and demand.

Logistics & delivery

Our logistics assets allow

us to handle large

volumes of commodities,

to fulfil our marketing

obligations and to take

advantage of demand

and supply imbalances.

We have global storage

and logistics assets in

key strategic locations,

including metal

warehouses accredited

by the LME and

numerous oil and grain

storage facilities. Our

value-added services

fulfils the needs of

customers and

make us a preferred

long-term counterparty.

as well as strengthening

our long-term

relationships.

22

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Our board

23

Ivan Glasenberg, CEO

Executive Director H

• CEO of Glencore since 2002

• 30 years with Glencore

• NED of Rusal (HKG)

Non-Executive Director H(C)

• 40 years of experience in the

resource industry

• Non-executive Chairman of

Santos and NED of Amalgamated

Holdings (both ASX)

Non-Executive Director A, R

• Chairman and CEO of First Reserve

• Chairman of Dresser-Rand (NYSE)

• NED of Weatherford International (NYSE)

Senior Independent

Non-Executive Director N(C), A

• Chairman of Bloomberg

• NED of Davita Healthcare (NYSE)

• Member of International Business

Council of WEF

Non-Executive Director R(C),N

• Former CEO of Morgan Stanley

• Member of the Advisory Board of CIC,

of International Business Council of

WEF, of NYC Financial Services

Advisory Committee and of Shanghai

International Financial Advisory Council

Peter Coates

Leonhard Fischer

William Macaulay

Peter Grauer

John Mack

Chairman H

• Former CEO of BP

• Non-executive chairman of

Genel Energy (LON)

Non-Executive Director A(C), N, R

• CEO of BHF Kleinwort Benson

Group S.A. (formerly RHJ

International S.A) (EBR)

• Chairman of Kleinwort Benson

Bank Ltd and BHF-Bank AG

Anthony Hayward

Patrice Merrin

Non-Executive Director H

• Former COO of Sherritt and of former CEO of

Luscar (Canada’s largest coal company)

• Former Chair of CML Healthcare (then TSX)

• NED of Stillwater Mining (NYSE); NED of

Novadaq Technologies (NASDAQ, TSX)

Committees: A Audit; H HSEC; N Nomination; R Remuneration; C Chair