Miami, 10 May 2006 1 Dr. Árpád Kovács Competitiveness, Sustainable Development and Sustainable...

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Miami, 10 May 2006 1 Dr. Árpád Kovács Competitiveness, Sustainable Development and Sustainable Constitutional State

Transcript of Miami, 10 May 2006 1 Dr. Árpád Kovács Competitiveness, Sustainable Development and Sustainable...

Page 1: Miami, 10 May 2006 1 Dr. Árpád Kovács Competitiveness, Sustainable Development and Sustainable Constitutional State.

Miami, 10 May 2006

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Dr. Árpád Kovács

Competitiveness, Sustainable Development and Sustainable

Constitutional State

Competitiveness, Sustainable Development and Sustainable

Constitutional State

Page 2: Miami, 10 May 2006 1 Dr. Árpád Kovács Competitiveness, Sustainable Development and Sustainable Constitutional State.

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Outline

• Adjustment challenges caused by the globalization and integration;

• Barriers of modernization in Hungary – and probably elsewhere in the world;

• Goals and methodology;

• Contribution of audit activities in a country’s modernization;

• Main tasks;

• INTOSAI – changes and development •• Strategy (2005-2010)

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Factors and conditions conducive to competitiveness

Cultural and traditionalfactors

Social and politicalfactors

State institutionsgovernment (public finances)

Competitiveness

Technological,technical factors

Corporate sector

International organizationsand institutions

conditions of integration

Global competition,perspectives of the world

economy

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COOPERATION

PE

RF

OR

MA

NC

E RE

GU

LA

RIT

Y

AUDITING EFFICIENCY

Participatory

Consensus oriented

LEGALITY

Economy, effectiveness

ResponsiveAccountability

Transparency

Equitable and inclusive

Follows the rules of law

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Growth rate of potential GDP (in percentage)

Country 1982-1991 1992-2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Belgium 2,1 2,1 2,3 1,9 2,0 2,0

BRD (German Federal Republic) 3,9 1,6 1,5 1,6 1,6 1,7

Greece 1,2 2,6 3,1 3,3 3,5 3,5

Spain 2,6 2,9 2,8 2,7 2,7 2,6

France 2,0 2,1 1,9 2,2 2,1 2,1

Ireland 3,6 7,2 6,6 5,2 5,3 4,7

Italy 2,4 1,6 1,8 1,5 1,5 1,4

the Netherlands 2,1 2,8 2,3 1,4 2,2 1,6

Austria 2,3 2,2 2,3 2,1 2,1 2,0

Portugal 2,8 2,8 2,6 1,6 1,6 1,8

Finland 2,5 2,4 2,8 2,5 2,3 2,5

EMU 2,8 2,1 2,0 1,9 2,0 1,9

Denmark 1,6 2,3 2,2 2,2 2,2 2,1

Sweden 2,0 2,2 2,2 2,3 2,2 2,2

UK 2,1 2,6 2,7 2,5 2,5 2,4

EU-15 2,6 2,2 2,1 2,0 2,0 2,0

USA 2,9 3,2 2,8 3,0 3,0 3,1

Note: No data for Luxemburg. 2004 and 2005 are forecasts. The potential GDP was estimated on the basis o f the COBB-Douglas production function.Source: OECD Economic Outlook, 2004. No. 75., 2004/2

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Country GDP per employee Output per hour

1961-1990 1991-1995 1996-2000 2001-2004 1990-1995 1995-2003

Belgium 3,2 1,1 1,4 0,8 2,3 1,6

BRD (German Federal Republic) 2,7 2,1 1,1 0,9 3,5 1,9

Greece 4,2 0,7 2,5 3,1 0,6 3,1

Spain 4,2 1,9 0,7 0,5 2,3 -0,3

France 3,3 1,5 1,3 0,6 1,4 1,3

Ireland 3,9 2,9 3,9 2,7 3,6 4,9

Italy 3,5 2,1 1,1 0,0 2,3 0,5

Luxemburg 2,5 1,3 2,8 -0,1 2,3 1,1

the Netherlands 2,7 1,3 1,2 0,6 1,4 0,6

Austria 3,5 2,1 1,9 0,8 1,8 2,3

Portugal 4,7 2,3 1,8 0,1 3,6 1,6

Finland 3,5 2,9 2,4 1,4 2,6 2,6

EMU 3,2 1,7 1,1 0,6 n.a. n.a.

Denmark 2,1 2,0 1,6 1,5 2,4 1,7

Sweden 2,2 2,9 2,5 1,4 2,0 2,1

UK 2,1 2,7 1,6 1,5 2,9 1,8

EU-15 2,9 1,9 1,3 0,7 2,5 1,3

EU-10 (new members) n.a. n.a. 3,8 3,3 n.a. 4,2

EU-25 n.a. n.a. 1,5 1,0 n.a. 1,7

USA 1,5 1,3 2,1 2,2 1,0 1,9

Note: data for 2004 are forecasts. n.a.: not availableSource: European Commission: Economic forecast, Spring 2004, Conference Board

Annual productivity growth rate in the EU and the US (in percentage)

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Country 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Belgium 19 18 19 18 25 24

BRD (German Federal Republic) 13 13 17 20 21 23

Greece 34 31 36 42 44 50

Spain 25 24 23 27 31 38

France 22 25 25 23 30 30

Ireland 5 7 9 11 10 12

Italy 32 33 34 41 51 53

Luxemburg 3 2 2 2 9 10

the Netherlands 4 6 4 13 16 13

Austria 18 14 15 14 13 17

Portugal 28 32 33 39 39 45

Finland 6 5 3 3 8 6

Denmark 12 15 6 5 7 7

Sweden 14 11 12 12 11 14

UK 15 17 16 19 22 22USA 1 1 1 1 1 1

Source: World Competitiveness Yearbook, 2005

Ranking by international competitiveness

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Country 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004Austria 19 170 23 261 28 707 29 174 29 943 30 797 32 520Belgium 18 542 22 268 26 668 28 036 29 338 30 180 31 323Denmark 18 240 22 708 28 807 29 847 30 081 30 677 32 141Finland 18 271 19 243 25 828 26 963 28 016 28 689 30 594France 17 802 20 994 25 966 27 271 28 009 28 303 29 554Greece 11 132 12 991 16 273 17 333 19 119 20 479 21 596the Netherlands 18 670 22 584 28 474 30 365 31 288 31 792 32 996Ireland 13 112 18 067 28 788 30 804 33 177 34 171 36 341Luxemburg 25 204 32 183 49 074 50 017 52 154 55 571 60 188UK 16 398 19 860 25 583 27 026 28 969 29 609 30 806Germany 18 063 22 084 25 576 26 313 27 132 27 647 28 605Italy 17 461 20 776 24 979 25 687 26 325 26 561 27 312Portugal 10 761 13 168 17 359 18 091 18 820 17 617 18 098Spain 13 309 16 032 21 074 22 256 23 756 24 813 25 875Sweden 19 090 21 511 27 170 27 534 28 375 29 522 31 139EU 15 16 816 20 205 24 942 26 005 27 083 27 613 28 712Hungary .. 9 267 12 133 13 373 14 515 15 112 15 948Japan 18 826 22 551 26 015 26 619 27 196 28 071 29 567USA 23 012 27 542 34 574 35 309 36 142 37 510 39 732

GDP per capita in PPS*

Source: Hungarian Central Statistical Office *Purchasing Power Parity (US$)

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Country General government expenditures (in percentage of the GDP)

1960 1990 1991-95 1996-00 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Austria 35,7 48,5 53,3 54,3 53,4 53,2 51,4 50,8 50,7 50,6

Belgium 30,3 45,2 54,1 50,9 50,7 50,1 49,3 49,4 50,2 51,0

Denmark 50,3 57,0 59,4 57,3 57,6 56,3 54,8 55,5 56,2 56,4

UK 32,2 41,8 42,3 40,0 40,1 39,6 39,7 40,8 41,6 43,1

Finland 26,6 44,4 58,7 53,9 52,4 51,7 48,8 48,9 49,8 50,9

France 34,6 49,6 53,0 54,1 53,0 53,0 51,8 51,7 52,7 55,5

Greece 33,2 44,0 47,3 47,2 49,5 49,5 52,1 50,1 50,0 50,1

the Netherlands 51,5 52,5 53,0 47,5 47,2 46,9 45,3 45,4 46,2 47,1

Ireland 42,6 40,0 39,7 35,7 34,9 34,5 31,9 33,5 33,9 34,4

Luxemburg 38,0 40,0 42,6 42,4 42,1 41,6 38,5 39,1 43,7 45,1

Germany 32,4 43,8 48,2 48,6 47,9 47,9 45,0 47,4 47,8 48,0

Italy 30,1 53,1 54,6 50,0 49,9 48,9 46,9 49,0 48,4 49,3

Portugal 32,8 39,0 42,4 45,0 44,1 45,2 45,1 46,3 45,9 47,7

Spain 31,6 41,0 45,4 41,4 41,4 40,2 39,0 38,4 38,7 38,2

Sweden 31,0 56,2 65,6 61,4 60,7 60,3 57,4 57,0 58,4 58,7

EU 15 44,6 48,0 50,3 48,4 48,2 47,7 46,1 47,2 47,6 48,6

Hungary 60,2 59,5 48,8 48,1 49,9 47,7 48,7 52,6 50,2

USA 27,0 33,6 35,9 33,1 32,7 32,7 32,5 33,5 34,3 34,4

Japan 28,3 31,5 33,2 39,1 42,8 39 39,6 39,2 39,9 39,3

USA and Japan: European Commission: Spring 2005 Economic Forecasts, ESA 95 methodologyEU 15 countries and Hungary: Eurostat Italics are estimations or coming from different sources.

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Country

EducationHealth

servicesSoc. security, cultural services and housing

EU 15 2000 9,8 31,7 5,0 6,2 20,5 4,6 46,12001 10,1 31,9 5,1 6,3 20,5 5,1 47,12002 10,2 32,5 5,2 6,5 20,8 4,9 47,62003 10,2 33,1 5,2 6,7 21,2 4,9 48,2

EU 252003 10,2 32,9 5,3 6,6 21,0 5,0 48,1

NM 102003 10,2 29,7 5,8 4,4 19,5 6,3 46,2

Hungary2000 14,0 27,9 5,7 4,6 14,7 6,7 48,62001 13,8 28,1 5,9 4,6 17,6 7,1 49,02002 12,4 29,6 6,2 4,8 18,6 11,5 53,52003 11,6 32,1 6,1 5,7 20,3 6,5 50,22004 12,0 31,0 6,4 5,2 19,4 7,2 50,2

2005 forecasts 10,8 30,1 6,2 4,8 19,1 7,5 48,4 2006 forecasts 10,2 30,3 6,2 4,8 19,3 7,8 48,3

Hungary:

* Including (interest) expenditures of general government debt management

prior to 2003: IMF data, 2003: Eurostat, after 2003: calculated from the 2006 budget on the basis of the ESA '95 methodology

Source: EU 15 (2000-2002): Eurostat International data for 2006: General government expenditure by function in the EU in 2003, Eurostat

TOTAL

General government expenditure by function in percentage of the GDP

General public

services*

from this:Welfare functions

Economic affairs and

other

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Public debt index

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Trends of the major indexes of the central budget (1991-2005)

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Index of the gross sum expenditures of the central budget

020406080

100120140160180

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Gross sum expenditures

CPI

Trends of the major indexes of the central budget (1991-2005)

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Index of the expenditures of the Public Health Fund

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Expenditures of the Fund

CPI

Trends of the major indexes of the central budget (1991-2005)

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Index of the expenditures of the Public Pension Funds

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Expenditures of the Fund

CPI

Trends of the major indexes of the central budget (1991-2005)

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Thank you for your attention