MEXICO - United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime...The opium poppy cultivation estimate figures...

MEXICO

June 2016

Monitoring of Opium Poppy Cultivation 2014-2015

United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime Liaison and Partnership Office in Mexico

Obrero Mundial 358, piso 2,Col. Viaducto Piedad, Col. Narvarte,Del. Benito Juárez, C.P. 03000, Mexico City.Tel.: +52 (55) 5588-4426, ext. 106Fax: +52 (55) 5588-4429Email: [email protected]: https://www.unodc.org/mexicoandcentralamerica/es/romex/oficina_LPO.html

Copyright © United Nations, 2016. All rights reserved worldwide.

This publication may be reproduced in whole part or in any form for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgment of the source is made. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publi-cation as a source.

Suggested citation: UNODC, Mexico, Monitoring of Opium Poppy Cultivation 2014-2015.

No use of this publication may be made for resale or any commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from UNODC. Applications for such permission, with a statement of purpose and intent of the reproduction, should be addressed to the Research and Trend Analysis Branch of UNODC.

ISBN: 978-92-1-058232-2

Photograph: Project MEXK54/UNODC-LPO Mexico

First edition: June 2016

Printed at:National Institute of Penal Sciences (Inacipe) Magisterio Nacional 113, Col. Tlalpan Centro,C.P. 14000, Mexico City.

Corrigendum May 2017

CORRIGENDUM

The opium poppy cultivation estimate figures published in June 2016 in the present report were revised for statistical inconsistency1 and UNODC made the adjustment. As a result, the estimated area sown with opium poppy cultivation figures below is correct, and is included below in this corrigendum.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The sixth paragraph should read:

High estimate: 30,400 hectares.

Best estimate: 26,100 hectares (more precise).

Low estimate: 21,800 hectares.

CHAPTER 6.1. ESTIMATE RESULTS OF THE AREA UNDER OPIUM POPPY CULTIVATION The second paragraph should read: The estimate area under opium poppy cultivation in 12 months for the monitoring period July 2014-June 2015 is 26,100 hectares (average), with a 95% confident interval and statistical range from 21,800 to 30,400 hectares (table 2). This result is the addition of the three estimates in this period considering that opium poppy crops can grow at different times on the year. Map 4 shows the total hectares found in each monitoring segment. Table 2. should read:

Result period Area (ha)

(lower estimate) Area (ha)

(best estimate) Area (ha)

(high estimate)

July 2014 - June 2015 21 800 26 100 30 400

CHAPTER 7.14. FORMULA APPLIED TO THE STATISTICAL ESTIMATE OF EVERY SAMPLING FRAME Table 11 should read:

Analyzed periods Area (ha)



(high estimate)

July-October 2014 6 470 7 570 8 670

November 2014-February 2015 6 190 9 370 12 540

March-June 2015 3 470 6 490 9 510

Totals 18 910 23 430 27 950

Table 13 should read:

1 The calculation had an incorrect assignment in the weighting factors for the different strata of the sample, which led to an

underestimation of the opium poppy cultivation area for the period 2014-2015.

Analyzed period Area (ha)



(high estimate)

Julio 2014-Junio 2015 21 800 26 100 30 400

The implementation of the Illicit Crop Monitoring Programme in Mexico has been made possible thanks to the financial contributions of the Mexican Federal Government through its involved institutions (SEDENA, SEMAR, PGR-AIC/CE-NAPI).

We thank the Mexican Federal Government institutions, the universities, the UNODC experts and technical analysts and the monitoring group who belong to the project “MEXK54” for their great effort, commitment and support in implementing the Opium Poppy Crop Monitoring System in Mexico and their valuable comments for the preparation of this national report for the period 2014 – 2015. To the Federal Government of Mexico:Ministry of Foreign Affairs (SRE) Ministry of National Defense (SEDENA)Ministry of Navy (SEMAR)Attorney General Office (PGR), through the Criminal Investigation Agency and the National Center of Planning, Analysis and Information to Counter Crime (PGR-AIC/CENAPI).

To the Project Monitoring Group:Alfredo Enríquez Delgado, SEMAR Abel Trejo Castelán, SEMARIsaac Morales Tenorio, SRE José Romero Líbano, SEDENAVidal Diazleal Ochoa, PGR-AIC Oscar Santiago Quintos, PGR-AIC

To UNODC:Antonio Mazzitelli, Representative (UNODC LPO-Mexico)Angela Me, Chief, Research and Trend Analysis Branch (UNODC-Vienna)Coen Bussink, Expert in Remote Sensing and GIS, Research and Trend Analysis Branch (UNODC-Vienna)Irmgard Zeiler, Expert in Research, Research and Trend Analysis Branch (UNODC-Vienna)Lorenzo Vita, Expert in Remote Sensing and GIS (UNODC-Viena) Matteo Mattuizzi, Expert in Remote Sensing (UNODC Consultant)

To Project Analyst and Technicians: Jerónimo Solís Guillen, Project CoordinatorIván A. Trujillo Roura, Technical Assistant of Analysis and Monitoring David Richard Ravaux, Programme AssistantAntonio Domínguez González, Analyst Braulio González Linares, AnalystErnesto Guillén Avilés, AnalystGabriel Vázquez López, Analyst Julio C. Uscanga González, Analyst Juan J. Navarrete López, AnalystMiguel Silva Bahena, Analyst Manuel Sánchez Ávila, Analyst Marco A. Vela Tapia, AnalystLuis Santamaría Campos, Analyst

To the Universities:National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico (UNAM), through the Geography Institute University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria (BOKU)

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

AFI Investigation Federal Agency

AIC Criminal Investigation Agency

BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna.

CEM Mexican Continuum of Elevations

CENAPI National Center for Planning, Analysis and Information to Counter Crime

CONAPO National Council of Population

INEGI National Institute of Statistics and Geography

UN United Nations

PGR General Attorney Office

ICMP Illicit Crop Monitoring Programme

PPS Probability Proportional to Size

GIS Geographic Information System

SRE Ministry of Foreign Affairs

SEDENA Ministry of the National Defense

SEMAR Ministry of the Navy

UNAM National Autonomous University of Mexico

UNODC United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime

ABBREVIATIONS

TERMS DEFINITION

Electromagnetic Spectrum Set of all the possible wavelengths (or frequencies) where the electromagnetic ra-diation occurs.

Pansharpening Technique used to combine two images (panchromatic and multispectral). This en-ables to increase the spatial and spectral resolution of the observed features or objects.

Infrared radiation (IRc) Part of the electromagnetic spectrum corresponding to the near infrared.

Multi-spectral image Satellite image that contains different parts of the electromagnetic spectrum.

Spectral mode Used to define the spectral properties of a satellite image (panchromatic or multi-spectral.

Orthophotograph Aerial photograph obtained with a metric camera which has been geometrically corrected and used to obtain a product which enables to measure the objects (dis-tances, areas, etc.).

Orthorectification Digital process used to correct the satellite images or aerial photographs geometri-cal distortions caused by the sensor movement or inclination over the ground relief.

Panchromatic Satellite images in black-and-white tones in accordance with the sensor character-istics.

Remote perception or Technique used to obtain an earth surface image through remote sensors without ground teledetection being in contact with it, i.e., located in satellites or planes.

Raster Matrix file of cells (pixels) organized in rows and columns with a specific value per cell. This file can be obtained by using any type of available remote sensors.

GIS Geographic Information System.

Remote sensors Instruments used to remotely obtain ground surface images such as artificial satel-lites and/or digital cameras used to take aerial photographs.

VHR Satellite images or aerial photographs’ very high spatial resolution

Visible spectrum (VIS) Visible spectrum captured by the human eye where the spectrum is formed by red, green and blue colors.

GLOSSARY

VIII

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12. INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33. BACKGROUND . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54. INSTITUTIONS AND PROJECT PERSONNEL. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94.1. Organization of the involved institutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

4.2. External institutions (academic). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

4.3. Organization of the project’s personnel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

5. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE MONITORING METHODOLOGY. . . . . . . . . . . 115.1. Determining the study areas: two sampling frames. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

5.2. Sampling-based methodology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

5.3. Samples collected three times over the year to identify opium poppy crops. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

5.4. Sensors used to collect satellite images and aerial photographs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

5.5. Determining the optimal dates to collect satellite images . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

5.6. Interpretation of the satellite images . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

5.7. Statistical calculation to estimate the area under poppy cultivation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

6. ESTIMATE RESULTS OF THE AREA UNDER OPIUM POPPY CULTIVATION. 206.1. Estimated area under opium poppy cultivation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

6.2. Coverage area of the collected images used to estimate opium poppy cultivation. . . . . . . . . . . 22

7. INPUTS OF THE DETAILED METHODOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257.1. National grid of 10 x 10 kilometers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

7.2. Monitoring zones . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

7.3. Sampling frame of the historical eradication data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

7.4. Sampling frame of the statistical analysis of illicit crops probabilities by determining factors . . . 31

7.5. Samples selection for monitoring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

7.6. Dates analysis to determine crop calendars with time series of satellite

images . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 357.6.1. Test area for the three regions with Landsat images . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 357.6.2. Data analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 377.6.3. Crop calendar during the year (harvest cycles) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 377.6.4. First results of the crop calendar analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

7.7. Stages and workflow for the interpretation of illicit crops in satellite images . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

7.8. Images used for the monitoring. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44

7.9. Correction and improvement processes of the satellite images . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 457.9.1. Software for image processing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 467.9.2. Mexican Continuum of Elevations (CEM). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 467.9.3. Orthorectification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 497.9.4. Pansharpening . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 507.9.5. Image clipping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 517.9.6. Histograms enhancement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52

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7.10. Illicit crops photointerpretation and measurement with satellite images . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 537.10.1. Robust workflow to photo-interpret poppy crops in satellite images. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 567.10.2. Spectral analysis through band combination in the satellite images . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 577.10.3. Decision tree for opium poppy crops . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 587.10.4. Interpretation keys and their use to detect opium poppy crops . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 597.10.5. Multitemporal analysis with remote sensors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60

7.11 Validation flights with aerial photos (fieldwork) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 617.11.1. Small-format digital cameras with visible infrared sensor used during the flights of aerial photograph . . . 627.11.2. Sensor calibration of the digital camera . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 647.11.3. Intervalometer functionality. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 657.11.4. Digital aerial photograph geoposition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 667.11.5. Use of metallic platforms with aerial specifications. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 687.11.6. Design, characteristics and installation of the metallic platforms and integration of an airborne

system to acquire digital aerial photographs for the project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

7.12. Flight planning to capture aerial photograph . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73

7.13. Photomosaic creation process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76

7.14. Formula applied to the statistic estimate of every sampling frame . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77

7.15. Adjustment factor to estimate the area by type of spatial resolution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

ANNEX. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81ANNEX I. National map of illicit crops probabilities by determining factors / risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81

ANNEX II. Characteristics of the available satellite images used in the project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98

ANNEX III. Description of the passive sensor and/or optical satellites. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100

BIBLIOGRAPHIC REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103

X

TABLE INDEX

Table 1. Three collection periods for satellite images / aerial photograph.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Table 2. Estimated area under opium poppy cultivation (ha) for 12 months of monitoring

in 2014 -2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Table 3. General summary of the sample collected and analyzed for the three periods . . . . . . . . . . 22

Table 4. Number of segments by coverage percentage with satellite images and aerial photos . . . 22

Table 5. Calendar with the highest NDVI values (average) by region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

Table 6. Number of images used by type of sensor in the sample of 368 segments . . . . . . . . . . . . 44

Table 7. Calendar for the collection of satellite images . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

Table 8. Characteristics of the CEM used to correct the satellite images . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

Table 9. Characteristics of the reflex digital camera . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

Table 10. Ratio of number of spins and number of shots per second . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66

Table 11. Estimation of the area under opium poppy cultivation for the sampling frame (I)

based on historical record of eradication . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78

Table 12. Estimation of the area under opium poppy cultivation for the sampling frame (II)

based on the analysis of determining factors / risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78

Table 13. Estimated total area under opium poppy cultivation (ha) for the period 2014 -2015 . . . . . 79

TABLES IN ANNEX

Table 14. Total of the variables used in the survey. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

Table 15.Independent variables selected for the binomial logistic model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84

Table 16. Binomial logistic model: probability of illicit crops. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86

Table 17. Characteristics of the passive sensors used for the monitoring.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98

CHARTS INDEX

Chart 1. Examples of phenological cycles identified with time series of satellite images . . . . . . . . . 17

Chart 2. Phenological curves of opium poppy in the North region. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

Chart 3. Phenological curves of opium poppy in the Centre region. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

Chart 4. Phenological curves of opium poppy in the South region. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

Chart 5. Linear calculation of hectares in the images and aerial photographs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

XI

FIGURES INDEX

Figure 1. Stages of the project’s methodology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

Figure 2. Example of an alphanumeric grid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

Figure 3. Left: WorldView-2 satellite image and opium poppy cultivation polygons. Center: series

of NDVI layers. Right: Phenological curve obtained from the series of NDVI layers for the central

pixel location. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

Figure 4. Location of reference data (segments) in the North region. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

Figure 5. Location of reference data (segments) in the Centre region. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

Figure 6. Location of reference data (segments) in the South region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

Figure 7. Flow chart of the Illicit Crop Monitoring Project in Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

Figure 8. Interface of software ERDAS Imagine for the orthorectification. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

Figure 9. Interface of software ERDAS Imagine to execute the orthorectification. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

Figure 10. Interface of software Socet GXP for the orthorectification. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

Figure 11. Interface of software ERDAS Imagine used to merge images. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

Figure 12. Interface of software Socet GXP used to merge images. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

Figure 13. Interface of software ERDAS and adjusted area in the image for each segment. . . . . . . 51

Figure 14. Interface of software Socet GXP used to merge and cut the image at the same time . . . 52

Figure 15. Interface of software ERDAS and the manual histogram enhancement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52

Figure 16. Socet interface and the automatic histogram enhancement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

Figure 17. Robust workflow to photo-interpret satellite images.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

Figure 18. Decision tree flow chart to determine opium poppy crops. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58

Figure 19. Example of an interpretation key for opium poppy cultivation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

Figure 20. Time scheme used between the analysis periods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60

Figure 21. Example of the distribution of the equipment used in helicopter for fieldwork . . . . . . . . . 62

Figure 22. Example of aerial GPS navigation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

Figure 23. Elements of the camera external orientation; it is defined by the angle of the three

rotation axis and by their x, y and z position in a cartographic projection and a reference datum . . 68

Figure 24. Digital modelling of the platform on the porthole to determine their dimensions and the

position of the aluminum cross bars, traverses and other components to be installed on rotatory

and mobile wing aircrafts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

Figure 25. Flight lines with the recommended overlap. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73

Figure 26. Calculation spreadsheet and parameters of the flight lines. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

Figure 27. Software interface used to create flight lines. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75

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Figure 28. Software interface of Pix4D mapper . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76

Figure 29. Good quality report generated by Pix4D mapper software . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76

FIGURES IN ANNEX

Figure 30. Diagram of relations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82

Figure 31. Wavelengths of the (visible) spectrum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100

Figure 32. Number of bands by type of spectrum in Geo Eye-1 images . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101

Figure 33. Example of orbits (left) and satellite scope (right). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102

XIII

PICTURES INDEX

Picture 1. Poppy crops in very high resolution satellite images (VHR). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Picture 2. Poppy crops in high resolution satellite image and in aerial photograph. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Picture 3. Satellite image with clouds cover and aerial photograph of the same area. . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Picture 4. Group of analysts interpreting the satellite images on screen. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Picture 5. Digitalization of polygons and area (ha) in Geo Eye - satellite image 1 (VHR) . . . . . . . . . 19

Picture 6. Poppy eradication efforts by the participating institutions of the monitoring

programmme . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

Picture 7. Example of opium poppy fields identified though WorldView-2 satellite image . . . . . . . . . 35

Picture 8. Types of resolution of the images used for the monitoring. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44

Picture 9. Photointerpretation analysis of opium poppy crops in Geo Eye-1image (VHR). . . . . . . . . 54

Picture 10. Poppy crop detected in VHR image with a combination of RGB and IRc bands . . . . . . 57

Picture 11. Example of opium poppy crops interpreted in different analysis periods.. . . . . . . . . . . . . 61

Picture 12. A) Visible image (RGB). B) Image in near infrared (IRc) and C) False color image,

formed by a combination of visible bands and near infrared . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

Picture 13. Sensors comparison with calibration adjustments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64

Picture 14. Intervalometer used in fieldwork. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

Picture 15. Capsule-type platform with external adaptation for rotatory wing aircraft (helicopter . . . 69

Picture 16. Metallic platforms built for rotatory and fixed wing aircrafts.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .72

Picture 17. Mobile wing aircraft with a porthole in the floor to install the metallic platform. . . . . . . . . 72

Picture 18. Fixed wing aircraft with a porthole in the floor to install the metallic base and cameras . 72

Picture 19. Example of installation of visible (VIS) and infrared cameras (IRc) in the metallic

platforms for rotatory and fixed wings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73

PICTURES IN ANNEX

Picture 20. Details comparison between satellite images. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101

Picture 21. Level of details by number of bits in each image . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102

XIV

MAP INDEX

Map 1. Study area composed of two monitoring sampling frames... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Map 2. Sampling frames composed of the10 x 10 kilometers national grid and segments

selected as samples to collect satellite images / aerial photographs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Map 3. Sampling distribution (368 segments) for the planning of satellite images collection

for the survey period July 2014-June 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Map 4. Area (ha) under opium poppy cultivation in 368 segments (10 x 10 Km) of the sample. . . . . 23

Map 5. Acquisition percentage of satellite images and aerial photographs by segment of the

sample Averaged with the three four-month periods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

Map 6. National orthogonal grid of10 x10 Km (100 Km2 per segment) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

Map 7. Sampling frames (I and II) used to estimate the area (Ha) under opium poppy cultivation . . 28

Map 8. Sampling frame with eradication historical records of illicit crops . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

Map 9. National area of illicit crops probabilities / risk by determining factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

Map 10. Location of the satellite images used in the sample of 368 segments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

Map 11. Distribution of the sampling frame I with 100 geo strata used to obtain the sample

of 300 segments of 10 x 10 km . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

Map 12. Location of the test areas through satellite images LANDSAT 7 and 8.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

Map 13. Mexican Continuum of Elevations model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48

Map 14. Total segments of the sample (10 x 10 km) with aerial photographs collected during

the fieldwork . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80

MAPS IN ANNEX

Map 15. Historical information of opium poppy eradication in 2010. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87

Map 16. Historical information of cannabis eradication in 2010. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88

Map 17. Average altitudes of the Mexican territory (MASL) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89

Map 18. Slopes average (%) in the Mexican territory. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90

Map 19. Standard deviation of the slopes average (%) in the Mexican territory. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91

Map 20. Minimum distance of the paved roads (Km) to each segment centroid (10 x 10 Km) in

the Mexican territory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92

Map 21. Total population per towns and cities in the Mexican territory. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93

Map 22. Average of the population marginalization index in the Mexican territory. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94

Map 23. Dense vegetation in the Mexican territory. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95

Map 24. Other types of vegetation in the Mexican territory. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96

Map 25. National area of illicit crops probabilities / risk by determining factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97

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This report presents the first official national estimates of opium poppy crop cultivation in Mexico, resulting from the Project MEXK54 “Monitoring System for Illicit Crops in the Mexican Territory” jointly implemented by the Government of Mexico and the UNODC Illicit Crop Monitoring Pro-gramme.

The survey methodology was developed during the pilot project phase between the second half of 2012 and the first half of 2014. First, an analysis was made of illicit crop cultivation risk areas. Second, different spatial designs for statistical sampling were tested and the optimum plan for satellite image collection was established in accordance with crop calendars derived from a time series analysis of a large number of satellite images. Third, a tailor-made design was created and operational procedures were developed to capture aerial photographs from fixed-wing and rotato-ry-wing aircrafts. Finally, a standardized set of criteria was set up to interpret the images, including a quality control workflow and external accuracy assessments in cooperation with statistics and remote sensing experts from UNODC and two universities (from Mexico and from Austria).

The survey methodology was based on the analysis of satellite images and aerial photographs collected from areas of 10 by 10 kilometers each, which were selected by samples (so-called seg-ments). The selected sample segments (368 segments for each cycle) were obtained from two dif-ferent sampling frames. The first frame was based on the historical data of crop eradication and the second one on bio-physical and socio-economic factors that were correlated with illicit cultivation areas. This statistical analysis highlighted the correlation between illicit crop production and poor socio-economic conditions in the areas where illicit crop cultivation occurs.

The implemented satellite images have very high spatial resolutions (VHR) ranging from 1.5 to 0.50 meters per pixel. In addition, aerial photographs were taken by means of overflights with a better spatial resolution of up to 25 centimeters. Images were acquired during three potential “sow-ing-harvesting” periods: 1) from July to October 2014; 2) from November 2014 to February 2015; and 3) from March to June 2015. Since the agricultural cycle of opium poppy has a duration of at least 4 months, the detection of any poppy field grown in the segments in the period July 2014 to June 2015 should be guaranteed.

Satellite and aerial images were analyzed through visual interpretation techniques and with a systematic cross-checking of interpretations. Due to the difference in spatial resolutions between satellite and aerial images, some fields that might not have been detected in the lower resolution images could be detected in higher resolution images, especially in cases of cloud coverage on the satellite imagery. These differences were corrected by applying a correction factor.

According to the Illicit Crops Survey in Mexico, the estimated area under opium poppy cultiva-tion between July 2014 and June 2015 was:

• High value: 30,400 hectares.• Medium value: 26,100 hectares (more precise).• Low value: 21,800 hectares.

These results have a confidence interval of 95%. The observed opium poppy fields were mainly located in the Western Sierra Madre in the states of Sinaloa, Chihuahua, Durango and Nayarit; as well as the Southern Sierra Madre in the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca.

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


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The estimated area under opium poppy cultivation represents the area found only through the satellite images/aerial photographs and is not corrected for the historical record of eradication that might have taken place after the image acquisition. The government of Mexico reports that for the survey period (July 2014 – June 2015) a total of 24729 hectares of opium poppy were eradicated.

The next opium poppy cultivation monitoring cycle is being carried out between July 2015 and June 2016. Regular monitoring will enable the identification of trends and will provide an insight into the dynamics of crop cultivation with regards to space and time. In addition, two new goals have been added to the monitoring project: 1) to obtain a yield estimate for the production of opium gum (kg/ha) and 2) to determine the morphine content of Mexican opium gum through chemical analysis.

The survey also included the monitoring of cannabis cultivation, but its results are not yet com-plete as the monitoring and analysis of this crop are still under way in order to reach a technically reliable estimate. Cannabis is cultivated at a smaller scale than opium poppy and also takes place in urban places such as gardens, courtyards, and small plots of land or greenhouses. Moreover, the crop is sometimes combined with other (licit) crops, which complicates its detection through remote sensing images.

With this report, the Government of Mexico reaffirms its interest to advance in the collection of evidence for explaining the dynamics of the multidimensional drug phenomenon. The project is one of the elements to implement comprehensive public policies which take into account the so-cio-economic causes and consequences in consistence with the objectives and commitment of the Government of Mexico that resulted from the United Nations General Assembly Special Session on the World Drug Problem held in New York, on April 19-21, 2016 (UNGASS 2016).

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2. INTRODUCTION

Illicit crop cultivation is a complex phenomenon in Mexico and should therefore be analyzed within a comprehensive approach that includes the understanding of economic, geographic and social factors. Not only does it requires additional efforts by the institutions in charge of controlling and reducing areas under poppy and cannabis cultivation but also of institutions that aim to improve the socio-economic and environmental conditions of these affected areas. In this regard, what is required is to design public policies aimed at implementing alternative development programmes and viable licit activities that support affected societies, which dwell mainly in rural areas, thereby guaranteeing the communities’ sustainability and the reduction of illicit crops.

The international community needs to work in a comprehensive and coordinated cooperation scheme against the damages caused in the operation of transnational economies based on illicit drug trafficking as well as their national, regional and global effects. The overall aim is to generate effective public policies to address this problem and manage to reduce the supply and demand of drugs.

UNODC is mandated to support governments in order to face international drug-related problems, organized crime, corruption and prevention of terrorism. This work is fueled by the different aspi-rations and mandates aimed at improving the satisfaction of particular needs shared by the United Nations Member States.

The basis of the present monitoring survey of opium poppy cultivation in Mexico is the “Internation-al Drug Control System”, which is composed of three main international treaties on drug control that complement each other and provide the legal base needed to guide the actions to address drug-related crimes.

These treaties codify international measures to guarantee the narcotic and psychotropic substanc-es available for medical and scientific purposes and to prevent the misuse of these substances for illicit purposes. These instruments also include general provisions about illicit trafficking and drug abuse. The three treaties previously mentioned are:

1. The Single Convention on Narcotics Drugs 1961. 2. The United Nations Convention on Psychotropic Substances 1971. 3. The United Nations Convention against Illicit Traffic in Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic

Substances 1988.

Since 1999, UNODC (which is based in Vienna, Austria) has been establishing methodologies through the Illicit Crop Monitoring Programme (ICMP) to collect and analyze data in order to strengthen the capacity of governments to monitor illicit cultivation on their own territories and to assist the international community in monitoring the extent and evolution of illicit crops.

The ICMP currently covers seven countries: Colombia, Bolivia and Peru for coca leaf cultivation; Afghanistan, Laos and Myanmar and Mexico for opium poppy. In 2012 the Illicit Poppy Crop Mon-itoring Programme called Project MEXK54 “Illicit Crop Monitoring Project in the Mexican territory was initiated in Mexico”. The project was organized by UNODC in collaboration with the Mexican government through its federal institutions: the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (SRE), the Ministry of the National Defense (SEDENA), the Ministry of the Navy (SEMAR) and the General Attorney’s Office through the Criminal Investigation Agency and the National Center for Planning, Analysis and In-formation to Counter Crime.


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The Government of Mexico thereby ventures into the illicit crop monitoring practice with technologi-cal inputs and own capabilities that have already been in place over the past years, with operation-al infrastructures. The Government of Mexico looks to exchange experiences at an international level in order to strengthen, expand and enhance the efficiency of the National Programme of Surface Estimation.

The project’s general objective is to “strengthen the Mexican Government’s technical capabilities to detect illicit crops with high precision, which will enable to develop comprehensive public poli-cies aimed at addressing the supply and demand of drugs”. The main goal of this first survey is “to estimate the area under poppy cultivation (ha) in one year (12 months)”.

To implement this initiative in Mexico, theoretical and technical assistance of experts was required on the field to improve the methodology, interpretation and data analysis with remote sensing in order to obtain results that allow to elaborate reliable statistics about the area of interest, which represents the entire national territory.

The first activities of the project were carried out from the second half of 2012 to the first half of 2014 under the so-called “Pilot Phase” whereby some of the methodological aspects applied by the project were developed, such as:

• Different spatial designs for monitoring.• Analysis of the potential/risk areas under illicit crops.• Standardization of the criteria used for various analysts’ interpretations and their quality

control.• Synchronization and programming of the satellite images and aerial photographs capture in

areas under opium poppy cultivation in accordance with their crop calendars. • Design and operation to take aerial photographs with a tailor-made system for aircrafts with

fixed wing (airplane) and rotatory wing (helicopter). • Statistical analysis of the area under opium poppy cultivation and the need to apply correc-

tion factors to the final estimation, when needed.

The report describes in detail the inputs, methods and processes used to reach an estimation of the illicit opium poppy cultivation. Chapters 3 and 4 describe the background, institutions and the personnel involved in the project. Chapter 5 briefly presents the methodology, while results are ex-posed in Chapter 6. Chapter 7 describes all the methodological details applied for the monitoring.

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3. BACKGROUND

The main zones under opium poppy cultivation are concentrated in the convergence area between Sinaloa, Chihuahua and Durango states, in the area called “Golden triangle”, particularly in the Western Sierra Madre; Guerrero state is also affected at some parts of the Southern Sierra Madre. Additionally some crops are located in Nayarit, Jalisco, Michoacán and Oaxaca states but with a variable dynamic and lower area under poppy cultivation.

As a part of the Mexican government strategies and efforts, in 2006 the president decided to trans-fer the eradication tasks from the PGR to the Armed Forces in accordance with the 2013-2018 Sectorial Programme of the Ministry of the National Defense (SEDENA) and the Ministry of the Navy (SEMAR). These institutions have been authorized by the government to perform activities of narcotics prevention and eradication, in the particular case of SEDENA, by implementing the intensive eradication and interception operations in the main illicit crop cultivation areas to inhibit trafficking any type of drugs.

In this regard, the Mexican government is committed to tackle this growing trend and has identified the need to develop new strategies and technological tools capable of harmonizing global and local policies.

Thus, the Mexican government has strengthened its capacities through SEDENA and SEMAR intelligence actions to detect illicit crops by using satellite images to monitor the impact of illicit crops eradication strategies. Besides the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (SRE) and the General Attor-ney Office (PGR) have intensified the international cooperation actions used to achieve a supply reduction and the measures used to control and counter the related crimes through the Criminal Investigation Agency, an institution responsible for collecting and analyzing statistical information through the National Center for Planning, Analysis and Investigation to Counter Crime.

The Mexican government has raised the need to study the illicit crop phenomenon from a wider perspective that allows understanding the dimension of the poppy and cannabis cultivation prob-lem in Mexico and seeking to approach an international organization to elaborate a methodology with international standards to monitor and estimate the area under illicit cultivation.

Under the “2013-2018 National Development Plan”, Mexico recently adopted some strategies aimed at promoting the creation of interinstitutional coordination entities to generate the studies and research projects; promoting national and international cooperation schemes; strengthening the military activities in land, air and sea fields; as well as reinforcing the Military and Navy Intel-ligence Systems to integrate them into different federal public administration agencies with infra-structure and better technological resources. The Mexican Federal Government had made efforts and surveys about the problem of illicit crops in the country before implementing Project MEXK54 Illicit Crop Monitoring System in the Mexican Territory. Some of them included: eradication of illicit cultivations, crop monitoring, tests to obtain yield factors and phenological analysis, as well as alternative development projects focused on the reconversion of illicit crops in high incidence areas.

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I. ILLICIT CROP ERADICATION WORKS

• In Mexico, during the 50s, an increasing trend of sowing, cultivating and trafficking narcotic drugs was observed. This situation forced the Mexican government to establish some mea-sures in order to hinder this illicit activity through the following action plans: “CANADOR Plan”, “CONDOR Operation”, “MARTE Task Force”, among others. These plans used great amounts of human and material resources to counter this illicit activity with the support of the armed forces because it was considered a risk for the national security.

• Under Mexico’s Strategy to Eradicate Narcotic Drugs, the development of technical and scientific surveys about illicit cultivation was planned in order to establish a specific meth-odology (according to physical-environmental, socio-economic and cultural conditions pre-vailing in drug-producing regions) to estimate the narcotic drug production in Mexico as well as the potential area under cultivation over the national territory.

• In 2004 the Bilateral Group for Analysis and Information Exchange on Interception (BGAIEI) was created in order to enhance the bilateral cooperation mechanisms to intercept drugs in accordance with the current laws of every country. The General Attorney Office led the Mexican efforts through the National Center of Planning, Analysis and Information to Count-er Crime (CENAPI); besides the American tasks were headed by the Executive Director of the Interception Coordination (USIC).

II. ILLICIT CROP MONITORING

• Since 1974 an initial illicit crop identification programme was carried out through an ad-vanced aerial photography system which located the poppy cultivation more accurately. The Mexican government efforts implemented strategies to monitor the drug-producing ar-eas in a better way and in 1983 the territory was divided into operative bases with the aim of carrying out activities such as: reconnaissance aerial operations, eradication and verifi-cation of illicit crops with plans and special operations in the historical periods identified as high incidence to sow and harvest drug narcotics as well as police investigation operations, among others.

• In 2003 the Mexican government implemented the first works to detect illicit crops over its territory with new technologies and an avantgarde vision through the institutions in charge of the national security (SEMAR - SEDENA). This launched the “Mexican Receiving Station of the SPOT Constellation (ERMEXS)” that allowed to receive satellite imagery of a 20, 10 and 2.5-meter spatial resolution. This station was located and operated in SEMAR prem-ises.

• From 2004 to 2006, SEMAR carried out the first activities to establish a methodology used to detect opium and cannabis illicit crops in the country with the SPOT constellation tech-nology. In 2008 this background contributed to create the inter-institutional collaboration group between both SEMAR and SEDENA analysts in order to detect and eradicate illicit cultivation.

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• In 2009, SEMAR and SEDENA approached the United States of America government on behalf of Mexico and achieved relevant support such as the programming and delivery of high resolution satellite images obtained from the Ikonos, Quick Bird and World View 2 sensors whose spatial resolution ranges from 1.0 to 0.50 m.

• On March 1st of 2010, SEDENA and the Agro-alimentary and Fishing Information Service (SIAP) belonging to the Ministry of Agriculture, Cattle Industry, Rural Development, Fishing and Food signed a collaboration agreement to provide the “ERMEXS” with “SPOT” satellite images and support the projects implemented by the SEDENA. On March 9th of 2012 these institutions continued the ERMEXS station project by signing a new agreement to jointly op-erate the “Mexican Reception Station SPOT New Generation” (ERMEX ng) used to obtain and implement high resolution satellite images (SPOT 6 and SPOT 7) until 2023.

• In 2011 the SEMAR capacities increased with a new technology to get VHR satellite images used to remotely analyze and observe the Mexican territory. It managed to set the “Virtual Station of Very High Resolution Satellite Images” with the GEOEYE US company. This station is able to receive satellite images of up to 0.45 meters of spatial resolution, thereby expanding the illicit crop detection capacities and accuracy.

III. TESTS TO OBTAIN YIELD AND PHENOLOGY ANALYSIS OF ILLICIT CROPS:

• From 1999 to 2004 the Mexican government had already made a preliminary survey about the illicit crops yield, features, and poppy phenological development in the country through its institutions specifically the General Attorney Office (PGR). These studies were made in greenhouses of the Operation and Training Base “El Caracol” in Culiacán, Sinaloa. This base belonged to the former General Directorate of Eradication of Illicit Cultivation which was part of the Federal Investigation Agency (AFI) in the PGR and was absorbed by the Ministerial Federal Police in June 2012. In this period the yield parameters and growth stages of the illicit crops in Mexico were obtained and fostered special projects on poppy and cannabis genetic investigation. These findings supported the federal forces eradication efforts in several places of the states.

• Regarding the survey “Opium Gum Yield Rate in Mexico”, the United Nations (UN) meth-odology was implemented and then published in 2001 by UNODC as “Guidelines for Yield Assessment of Opium Gum and Coca Leaf from Brief Field Visits”. In the next year, the Mexican government trained military personnel to collect data during the field samplings for yield evaluation purpose. In February and March 2001, the first sampling took place in the North zone (including Chihuahua, Sinaloa, Durango and Nayarit states) and in the South zone (Michoacán, Guerrero and Oaxaca).

• “Characteristics and Phenological Development of Opium Poopy Cultivations” was another scientific survey available for the Monitoring Project in Mexico. This information provided references on the opium poppy plants phenology. In 2004 the investigation tasks were carried out and determined in the light of the laboratory conclusions that poppy cultivation has a length of 120 days for an optimal phenological development from the sowing to the harvest. The survey included a chart with the amount of days needed in each growth period.

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IV. ILLICIT CROP CONVERSION PROGRAMME

Under the 1990-1993 Rural Development Programme, the Mexican government implemented a project called “Rural Development to Hinder Illicit Cultivation: the Mexican experience in Oaxaca, Guerrero and Michoacán” through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (SRE) and the General Attorney Office (PGR) and the Governments of the States of Oaxaca, Guerrero and Michoacán. The initia-tive was aimed at expanding job opportunities and increasing the local communities’ income to hin-der illicit crop cultivation by establishing small-scale communitarian programmes of a productive, social and infrastructural kind in Oaxaca, Guerrero and Michoacán rural areas. However, the lack of follow up prevented this programme to provide benefits to rural societies of the states where it was applied.

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4. INSTITUTIONS AND PROJECT PERSONNEL

Activities developed under the MEXK54 Monitoring Programme are the result of the combined efforts between UNODC and the Mexican Government with the participation of federal agencies as well as national and international academic institutions. Each part has contributed to the pro-gramme with its own inputs.

4.1. ORGANIZATION OF THE INVOLVED INSTITUTIONS

These institutions along with UNODC are in charge of implementing and contributing to the Poppy Crop Monitoring Programme activities in Mexico:

A. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (SRE) is responsible for implementing the foreign policy determined by the Federal Executive. In this regard it promotes international cooperation in order to prevent and tackle the global problem of drugs. SRE monitors the UNODC ICMP programme currently executed in Mexico.

B. The Ministry of the National Defense (SEDENA) is the technical-operational entity in charge of detecting poppy cultivation through the analysis of satellite images due to its jurisdictional responsibility in most of the territory. It is also the institution that plays a significant role in the national efforts to eradicate illicit crops in the country. Its results are reported, managed and systematized by AIC/CENAPI. Besides, it gives logistic support by providing the project with aircrafts and satellite images to collect and validate field data.

C. The Ministry of the Navy (SEMAR) as SEDENA, is the technical-operational entity respon-sible for analyzing satellite images and aerial photographs to detect poppy cultivation. Like-wise it participates in the national efforts to eradicate illicit cultivation in Mexico. Finally, this Ministry collaborates in logistic activities like SEDENA does.

D. The General Attorney Office/Criminal Investigation Agency/National Center for Planning, Analysis and Information to Counter Crime (PGR/ AIC-CENAPI) is the administrative entity responsible for the project. It is in charge of the specialized systems and data bases to an-alyze and diagnose the national and transnational organized crime in Mexico.

E. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) is the agency in charge of coordi-nating the project and is responsible for the methodology development, quality control and transparency when reporting the results in accordance with international standards. It has a Liaison and Partnership Office in Mexico and an Executive Secretariat in Vienna, Austria.

4.2. EXTERNAL INSTITUTIONS (ACADEMIC)

The academic institutions involved in the project are: the Geography Institute of the National Au-tonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) and the University of Natural Resources and Life Scienc-es, Vienna, Austria (BOKU).

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These institutions undertake research and train the university researchers. The experience of each of them helps to increase the project capacities in areas such as: creation of data bases, produc-tion of thematic cartography, analysis methods with remote sensors, quality control standardiza-tion, development of GIS technologies to assess geographic data, use of methods to analyze the regional environment and schemes of field sampling with aerial photography.

Thus, the academic experts actively assist and assess the monitoring project team by providing the scientific support required to get reliable and quality data.

4.3. ORGANIZATION OF THE PROJECT’S PERSONNEL

The monitoring project is composed of the UNODC and governmental institutions personnel. The project coordination is based in UNODC Mexico office and comprises a General Coordinator, an Analysis and Monitoring Technical Assistant and a Programme Assistant. The project is supported by a GIS and remote sensing expert, a statistics expert, and a programme officer who are based in Vienna.

SEDENA, SEMAR and AIC/CENAPI-PGR (the Mexican government stakeholders of the project) have provided the Monitoring Programme with personnel to support the satellite images process-ing and digital correction as well as the provision of field aerial photography which is a main input to analyze and validate the poppy cultivation fields.

The technical team in charge of collecting and analyzing the data is composed of seven persons with very different profiles: three geographers, two biologists, one photometrist and two remote sensing and GIS specialists. In general, this group is expert in cartography, digital correction pro-cess of satellite imagery, remote sensing photointerpretation, GIS analysis and field technologies (aerial and terrestrial GPS navigators, digital cameras with visible and infrared sensor, satellite GPS, among others).

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5. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE MONITORING METHODOLOGY

This chapter briefly explains the different elements of the monitoring in order to understand the principle of illicit crop area estimation. Chapter 7 gives a detailed explanation of all its elements.

The preliminary tasks included a test period called “pilot phase” during which all available infor-mation were analyzed such as the geographic inputs, infrastructure and computing media, and statistical analysis of the historical records of poppy cultivation. In this regard an analysis of the challenge to identify the main areas of incidence was carried out. Mexico is a very large country (2,000,000 km2 approximately) with a rugged terrain and hard-to-reach places where illicit crops are sowed in small fields and in very steep hills. Furthermore, illicit crops in Mexico are cultivat-ed at different times of the year which vary from region to region in various weathers conditions and others circumstances.

Therefore, a complete monitoring of the area (census) with remote sensing would be a very ex-pensive task and would require a disproportionate amount of human and technical resources. So in this pilot phase the three main problems of this type of projects were determined:

1. Determine (reduce) the study areas. 2. Determine the method to select the samples where the satellite images/aerial photos are

taken. 3. Determine the time nature and the quantity of annual sowing and harvesting.

5.1. DETERMINING THE STUDY AREAS: TWO SAMPLING FRAMES

Mexico has a significant area and geographic, socioeconomic and social characteristics that complicate the environment where poppy and cannabis are cultivated and harvested. This phe-nomenon is common in areas where physiographic conditions are optimal for the phenological development of plants i.e. in places whose weather and altitude boost the crops growth. On the other hand, water bodies are available for the sowing process. Finally the rugged orography makes the access difficult and is used to hide these fields.

The best starting point of the existence and location of illicit cultivation area in the country are the eradication historical records. This data was used in two ways: first a geographic eradication his-torical series was used; this information enables to know the high incidence areas of poppy culti-vation. Then the historical data base was used to apply a statistical model with a set of biophysical and socioeconomic criteria that can be correlated with the incidence of the eradicated fields.

The application of this model resulted in a risk map showing areas similar to those where illicit crops were found in the past (Annex I).1 The risk map identified a bigger area than the one obtained only through the eradication area. Additional areas were added to the initial survey area. Then, two studying areas were obtained and were called “sampling frame of eradication” and “sampling frame of additional risk”, as shown in Map 1.

1 Annex I. Survey about the statistical analysis of probability for illicit crops by determining factors (risk). In this analysis, categories of risk probability were obtained from very high, high, medium, low, very low. Likewise these areas were compared to the incidence of historical cultivation.

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Map 1. Study area composed of two monitoring sampling frames.

Source: Illicit Crop Monitoring System in Mexican Territory – supported by UNODC. The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

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Picture 1: Poppy crops in very high resolution satellite images (VHR).

World View-2 Image (0.50 meters)

Aerial photograph (0.25 meters)

5.2. SAMPLING-BASED METHODOLOGY

The estimation of the area under poppy cultivation is based on the identification of these crops in very detailed satellite images and aerial photos (with very high resolution) that enable to discov-er the small illicit crops (picture 1). Although the study area described in paragraphs above was reduced, analyzing the entire surface through these images would not be viable. Thus, a set of samples which helped to plan the capture of satellite images/aerial photos was selected (map 2).

In this particular case, 300 samples were chosen in the historical eradication sampling frame and 68 in the additional area with the sampling frame of illicit crops determining factors (risk) (map 3). The total samples were statistically chosen for the entire country to enhance the geographic dis-tribution.

Both sampling frames were made up within a national grid with 10 x 10 kilometers geographical squares (segments) which were overlapped on top of the study areas with the historical eradication data and the probability data by illicit crops determining factors (risk).

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Map 2. Sampling frames composed of the 10 x 10 kilometers national grid and segments selected as samples to collect satellite images / aerial photographs


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Map 3. Sampling distribution (368 segments) for the planning of satellite images collection for the study period July 2014-June 2015


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Picture 2. Poppy crops in high resolution satellite image and in aerial photograph

World View-2 Image (0.50 meters) Aerial photograph (0.25 meters)

5.3. SAMPLES COLLECTED THREE TIMES OVER THE YEAR TO IDENTIFY OPIUM POPPY CROPS

The satellite images and the aerial photographs were collected at least three times in each four-month period during the monitoring year (July 2014-June 2015). This guaranteed that all the crops cultivated at any time in the year were detected by satellite images/aerial photos considering that the growth cycle of poppy crops is approximately 4 months.

Table 1: Three collection periods for satellite images / aerial photograph

Collect areasPeriods

July-October 2014 November 2014-February 2015 March-June 2015

Total sample in theMexican territory

368 segmentsof 10 x 10 Km



5.4. SENSORS USED TO COLLECT SATELLITE IMAGES AND AERIAL PHOTO-GRAPHS

The use of remote sensing images is based on satellite images from different sensors (SPOT-6 and 7, Ikonos, Quick Bird, Geo Eye-1, World View-2 y 3) in combination with aerial photos. In the monitoring year, 3 images were taken per each segment. The small field size requires using very high resolution images (0.4-0.7 meters) to determine and distinguish the crops and to take accu-rate measures.

In addition fieldwork took place on a yearly basis to collect the aerial photographs (with a resolu-tion of 0.25 meters) (picture 2) that complemented the information in areas where satellite imagery had no data due to cloud cover. Aerial photographs are a major input because they contribute to validate the poppy crops detection in the sample segments.

In the in-house analysis (office) the use of samples having both satellite images and aerial photos coverage was preferred. The difference in details has been significant and the possible interpreta-tion variation has been considered in the final area estimate by using a correction factor.

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Picture 3. Satellite image with cloud cover and aerial photograph of the same area

World View-2 Image (0.50 meters) Aerial photograph (0.25 meters)

5.5. DETERMINING THE OPTIMAL DATES TO COLLECT SATELLITE IMAGES

For every four-month period, data capture was programmed around the optimal dates for poppy crops monitoring i.e. when the crops reflect a larger proportion of green and infrared light in images (Mattiuzzi et. al., 2014). The optimal date varies for each segment depending on their geographic position, their topography, local weather and water availability for cultivation. The pilot surveys were made between 2012 and 2013 and they identified the best dates by using the detected fields and searching the phenology (vegetative growth) of poppy cultivation through an extensive time series analysis of Landsat2 medium resolution satellite images (Chart 1).

At the beginning the following programming cycles were applied to collect the satellite images and aerial photography in the study areas. They used accurate dates adapted to the phenology survey for the three periods of four months:

1. July/October 20142. November 2014/February 20153. March/June 2015

2 Analysis date survey to determine crop calendars by using time series of satellite images and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). With this procedure the first crop calendar for opium poppy cultivation was established. Later on, it was used to program the collect of satellite images and aerial photography in the field in its high production phenological phase.

Chart 1: Examples of phenological cycles identified with time series of satellite images

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Picture 4. Group of analysts interpreting the satellite images on screen

5.6. INTERPRETATION OF THE SATELLITE IMAGES

The collection of satellite images and aerial photographs was followed by intensive in-house works in order to interpret the satellite images. The analysts group systematically carried out visual pho-tointerpretation over all the available images and aerial photos, digitalizing detected illicit crops (polygons) throughout GIS tools. The process indicates the pre-established criteria in the meth-odology (decision tree, interpretation keys, and predefined display scales). An analysis to reduce subjectivity in opium poppy cultivation photointerpretation was performed afterwards, based on a robust verification workflow (see chapter 7.10.1). This technique consists in exchanging images between the analysts who make new revisions. When the analysis is finished, a final revision of the detected crops is carried out by the group supervisors.

Additionally, when the analysis was completed, the team of analysts carried out a last visual revi-sion on screen to reach an independent quality control with a collective discussion about the inter-pretations included in the final revision (picture 4). This gives a collective feedback about emerging doubts in the group and keeps enhancing the standardization of the criteria used in the analysis.

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5.7. STATISTICAL CALCULATION TO ESTIMATE THE AREA UNDER OPIUM POPPY CULTIVATION

After digitalizing the crops (polygons), the areas (ha) were calculated for each crop and added up into each 10 x 10 km segment of the selected sample. The total sum of all the sampling segments was extrapolated to the original sampling frame in accordance with the corresponding statistical rules, according to the sampling method. However, the extrapolations were independently made for the two sampling frames because each sample was taken separately. The sum of the detected surfaces per four-month period and per sampling frame is the result of the national statistical figure of the area under opium poppy cultivation.3

The lower (low value) and higher (high value) limits were calculated following the rules and stan-dards for combined ratio estimators. It should be considered that the estimated area only represent an estimate made into the sampling frames established for the monitoring.

3 It should be noticed that additional corrections to the first results can exist, as it happened in this first survey when a correction was made due to different types of resolution. For instance, for undetected crops in available satellite images, correction factors are applied (as previously mentioned) considering the results obtained in aerial digital photographs collected in the field as a reference.

Picture 5. Digitalization of polygons and area (ha) in Geo Eye-1 satellite image (VHR)

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6. ESTIMATE RESULTS OF THE AREA UNDER OPIUM POPPY CULTIVATION

After integrating the individual opium poppy crop measures, a national total estimation was ob-tained. By applying the statistical model, it was possible to calculate the national area under opium poppy cultivation through the interpretations and measures made on the previously programed satellite images and aerial photographs for the 368 segments of the sample used in the two sam-pling frames for the whole period. As it is shown on map 3: 1) 300 segments taken from historical eradication data and 2) 68 segments obtained from the analysis of determining factors for illicit crops/risk.

6.1. ESTIMATED AREA UNDER OPIUM POPPY CULTIVATION The estimated area under opium poppy cultivation in 12 months for the monitoring period July 2014-June 2015 is 26 100 hectares (average), with a 95% confidence interval and a statistical range4 from 21 800 to 30 400 hectares (table 2). This result is the addition of the tree estimates in this period considering that opium poppy crops can grow at different times of the year. Map 4 shows the total hectares found in each monitoring segment.

Table 2. Estimated area under opium poppy cultivation (ha) for 12 months of monitoring in 2014 -2015

Result period Area (ha)(lower estimate)Area (ha)

(best estimate)Area (ha)

(high estimate)

July 2014 - June 2015 21 800 26 100 30 400

No trend can be noticed in the opium poppy cultivation development because it is the first national report which uses this methodology. Data for the period July/2015 - June/2016 is being processed and analyzed, which will enable to interpret any trend and geographic dynamic about opium poppy cultivation. However according to the applied sample, opium poppy cultivations were mainly found in nine states: Sinaloa, Chihuahua, Durango, Nayarit, Jalisco, Michoacán, Guerrero, Oaxaca and Chiapas.

Other states do not show opium poppy cultivation for this study period; however they are not necessarily opium poppy free. Due to the low density of the selected samples in some states, the potential area is small and it is possible that some small fields were not.5

The result does not consider if opium poppy crops could have been eradicated after monitoring (detection). Consequently, the estimates only refer to cultivation levels at the time when the sat-ellite images and aerial photographs were captured. It is also worth mentioning that the Mexican government official figures for the same monitoring period (July 2014-June 2015) reported a total eradication of 24,729 hectares of opium poppy cultivation as a joint effort of the institutions involved such as SEDENA, SEMAR and PGR/AIC (picture 6).

4 The range is the interval between the higher and the lower value statistically used for the sampling. Range does not include non-sampling errors, as those possibly made during the photointerpretation of satellite images and aerial photographs.

5 The sample definitions were taken at a national level, not at a state level. So they cannot be used to draw conclusions for any particular state.

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Picture 6. Poppy eradication efforts by participating institutions in monitoring programme

SEDENA SEMAR

PGR AIC

It is important to note that the estimate of area under cannabis cultivation requires to keep mon-itoring crops for a longer period in order to collect and analyze technically validated data which can show the statistical reality of this type of illicit cultivation in Mexico. For cannabis, unlike opium poppy, there are other factors to be taken into account, from the way of sowing to harvesting. This activity can be made at a smaller scale or in urban places like gardens, courtyards, small plots in farmland, greenhouses or by mixing cannabis with licit cultivations, which makes its detection with remote sensing images difficult. This situation has hindered this report to present a technically and statistically reliable result of the area under cannabis cultivation.

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6.2. COVERAGE AREA OF THE COLLECTED IMAGES USED TO ESTIMATE OPIUM POPPY CULTIVATION

The capture of satellite images gets more complicated due to the presence of clouds in the area, which is a very common situation in Mexico’s monitored regions. This caused that not every sample (segment) could be completely observed, resulting in a partial coverage for some segments with images. The ideal-total coverage of 100% is composed of 1 104 segments of 10 x 10 kilometers (100 km2) of the sample, that is, the sum of the 368 segments analyzed for the three four-month periods. The total amount of collected samples for the three periods was 1 032 segments corre-sponding to 93% of the ideal-total coverage (table 3). The map 4 shows the distribution of hectares interpreted for each monitoring segment.

Table 3. General summary of the sample collected and analyzed for the three periods

Samples dataAnalyzed periods

TotalJuly-October 2014

November 2014-February 2015

March-June 2015

Sample size 368 368 368 1 104

Total of collected samples 332 355 345 1 032

Total of missing samples 36 13 23 72

Percentage of the sample 90% 96% 93% 93%

A ratio estimator was applied to the total sample for the calculation in order to get the national es-timate of the area under opium poppy cultivation in the monitoring period from July 2014 to June 2015.

In the result of ratio estimator was only considered the total sum of the collected images during the entire study period. The total number of collected samples (images) was 1,032 segments which were taken from a total amount of 1,104 segments. However the number of samples used to get the coverage area was 1 046 because there are some segments with two images. Each image of the collected segment (100 km) was analyzed to calculate the coverage percentage (%) of its total coverage area; the areas covered by clouds and the area covered by the effect of shadows were removed from this figure.

The next table (table 4) provides the results of the number of segments and their real coverage of area for each percentage from 0% to 100%. For each of the sampling segment, the map 5 shows the result of the sum of their total coverage and the average of the three periods analyzed (July-Oc-tober 2014, November 2014-February 2015 and March-June 2015).

Table 4.Number of segments by coverage percentage with satellite images and/or aerial photos

Collect areasArea coverage %

Total>0 >10 >20 >30 >40 >50 >60 >70 >80 >90 100

Number of segments of 10 x 10 Km 15 8 4 9 13 17 32 52 64 817 15 1 046

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Source: Illicit Crop Monitoring System in the Mexican Territory – supported by UNODC. The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

Map 4. Area (ha) under opium poppy cultivation in the 368 segments (10 x 10 km) of the sample

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Map 5. Acquisition percentage of satellite images and aerial photographs by segments of the sample averaged with the three four-month periods


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7. INPUTS OF THE DETAILED METHODOLOGY

Figure 1. Stages of the project’s methodology

Considering this is a national wide project and estimates need to be done at this scale and not with a regional, state or municipal level, the first step was to evaluate the available inputs and tools to plan the best strategy for the project development.

The methodology used to estimate the area under opium poppy cultivation is based on obtaining spatial information through remote sensing techniques, such as: satellite images, aerial photo-graph and/or video, obtained from artificial satellite in orbit or through aircrafts with either fixed (airplanes) or rotatory wings (helicopter).

The methodology is composed of seven stages, as shown in figure 1, including the use of tech-nologies, inputs, GIS tools, processes, validation, and verification of analyzed data through aerial photos collected in flights during fieldwork, and obtaining results by applying geo-statistics for the final estimate of the area under opium poppy cultivation.

However the information flow for the opium poppy crop photointerpretation faced some challenges which were overcome through the aforementioned complementary fieldwork. This gave the analyst a better vision to detect illicit crops. On the other side, the project established relations with two universities (one national and the other international) which permanently assessed the methodol-ogy and collaborated in searching the optimal growth stage of illicit crops and the potential areas/risk factors to cultivate these narcotic drugs in Mexico, thus guaranteeing the good quality of the final statistics.

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7.1. NATIONAL GRID OF 10 X 10 KILOMETERS

A geographic grid was elaborated with 10 x 10 kilometers segments (100 km2) to obtain a mea-surement unit. This extent was selected according to the minimum size required to get satellite images/aerial photos. The geographic grids are commonly used as a geo-localization input, that is the spatial information expressed in cartesian coordinates (latitude and longitude).

In general terms, geographic grids are divided in two types: “equal angle” (grids with constant cells size expressed in latitude and longitude degrees) and “equal area” (grids with cell size of the same extent, for instance, 1,000 km2, 100 km2, 10 km2, 1 km2). By using grids it is possible to divide the area of any geographic space in series of cells or adjacent segments which have a particular geo-metric form, “square, rectangle, triangle, among others”; any of them are assigned with a particular numeric or alphanumeric identifier, used for indexing or spatial positioning.

For this project, an orthogonal alphanumeric6 grid of “equal areas”, square type, with “alphanumer-ic index” was created through GIS software (Arc- Map). This grid has a total of 22 308 segments of 10 x 10 kilometers distributed all over the country and each one covers a 100 km2 area (map 6). Each grid segment is assigned with an alphanumeric identifier, which allows to gather the selected parameters for each segment, as shown in figure 2.

With this grid of 22 308 segments the two sampling frames were obtained with those which were used to extract the representative sample of 368 segments of the national territory. For the first one (300 segments) the historical eradication data of illicit cultivation were used in the country; for the second additional sampling frame (68 segments), the analysis data of determining factors for illicit crops (risk) were used.

6 A reference system that enables to name locations in a point or zone of a map, photograph or other graphic in terms of numbers or letters, also known as “alphanumeric grid”.

Figure 2. Example of an alphanumeric grid

Source: MEXK54

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Map 6. National orthogonal grid of 10 x10 km (100 km2 by segment)


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Map 7. Sampling frames (I and II) used to estimate the area (ha) under opium poppy cultivation

7.2. MONITORING ZONES

In Mexico, the vast majority of opium poppy cultivation is located in Sinaloa, Chihuahua, Duran-go, Nayarit, Jalisco, Michoacán, Guerrero and Oaxaca states. They are located along the Pacific Ocean coast, over the strip of the territory formed by the Western Sierra Madre and the Southern Sierra Madre. According to the eradication records reported by Federal Forces in Mexico, these areas have optimal conditions for phenological development of opium poppy crops.

The study area was delimited by mainly using historical eradication data. Once the study area was defined, the sampling frame was set up, that is the environment where the samples were taken. The results found in the selected samples were used to estimate the total area of the phenomenon (area under opium poppy cultivation) in the sampling frame. This means that the results are only representative of the extension covered by the sampling frame.

The initial sampling frame was extended in a second stage with a risk survey. Consequently, two sampling frames were applied: one based on the historical eradication data, and the second based on a statistical model of probabilities by determining factors for illicit crops (risk), as shown in map 7.


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7.3. SAMPLING FRAME OF THE HISTORICAL ERADICATION DATA

The historical illicit crop eradication data of the Mexican government for the years 2007-2009 and 20117 were used in the first sampling frame implemented by the monitoring project (map 8). Once the 10 x 10 km orthogonal grid was established, an initial analysis of every parameter estimated over the grid was made, as shown in map 8. This process was carried out with the GIS software (ArcMap) to include the historical eradication data.

In this analysis the cells with and without presence of illicit crops (poppy and cannabis) represent-ed in the eradication data were considered because it was necessary to evaluate the entire con-text of the Mexican territory to understand the patterns and process of this event. If one segment demonstrated eradication more than one time, then it could be selected (one time means at least once per year in both crop cultivation or eradication in two different years). The variables chosen and their parameters were applied to a geographic information system that enables to gather the selected parameters.

7 The year 2010 was excluded due to codification and geo-reference problems in the data.

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Map 8. Sampling frame with eradication historical records of illicit crops


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7.4. SAMPLING FRAME OF THE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF ILLICIT CROPS PROBABILITIES BY DETERMINING FACTORS

The survey team worked in coordination with the Geography Institute of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) to apply a particular methodology describing the techniques to ob-tain, select and classify variables and parameters. This methodology was used to make a territorial analysis of the probable areas under illicit cultivation in Mexico, through a multivariate analysis with a comprehensive criteria where socioeconomic, administrative and physical variables were correlated to determine which of them are able to explain the probability to find illicit crops in the country, as well as their spatial distribution and the collective Mexican State actions aimed at achieving a social and institutional recovery of the territory.

The results show a first approximation of a geographic instrument that helps to detect illicit crops in the Mexican territory. This is the “National Map of Probability /Risk of Determining Factors for Illicit Crops” which classifies the national territory in 5 types according to the probability (very high, high, medium, low, and very low) of the areas to be under opium poppy cultivation.

The analysis were made through three statistical models: wi

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