Mexico POE Off-Case Table of Contents...

Points of Entry Off Case DUDA 2013-14Varsity

Mexico POE Off-Case Table of Contents (1/2)

Summary........................................................................................................................................3Glossary.........................................................................................................................................4

Corporate Tax Counterplan

1NC Corporate Tax Counterplan....................................................................................................5Solvency- Growth and Jobs............................................................................................................6Answers to: Corporate Tax Cuts do not create jobs.......................................................................7Answers to: Corporate Tax Cuts do not create jobs- Offshoring....................................................8Answers to: Trade policy more important than tax policy...............................................................9Answers to: Tax Cuts Bad- Inequality..........................................................................................10Answers to: Tax Cuts Bad- Revenue...........................................................................................11Answer to: Tax Cuts Bad- Social Policy.......................................................................................12

China Disadvantage

China Disadvantage 1NC .........................................................................................................13-5Chinese Influence High................................................................................................................16Link: Economic Engagement........................................................................................................17Link: Border Infrastructure.........................................................................................................18-9Impact: Latin American Growth....................................................................................................20Impact: Turns Trade.....................................................................................................................21Answers to: United States engagement durable..........................................................................22Answers to: US Economic Engagement with Mexico now...........................................................23Answers to United States won’t crowd out China......................................................................24-5Answers To: Chinese Influence Bad- Latin America....................................................................26Answers to: Chinese Influence bad- US Leadership....................................................................27Answers to: Chinese Softpower Fails...........................................................................................28

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Mexico POE Off-Case Table of Contents (2/2)

Immigration Disadvantage

Immigration Disadvantage 1NC .............................................................................................29-31Link Extension – Mexican Growth Reduces Immigration Rates...................................................32Impact Add-On: US Economic Decline ........................................................................................33Impact Add-On: US Economic Decline ........................................................................................34Impact Turns Case: Food Price Spike Causes Poverty & Hunger...............................................35Answers to: Mexico’s Economy Growing/Immigration Rates Declining........................................36Answers to: Plan Wouldn’t Stop All Migration...............................................................................37Answers to: Farms Will Adapt to Labor Shortages.......................................................................38Answers to: Agriculture Stable without Immigrant Labor..............................................................39Answers to: US Farms Exploit Immigrants...................................................................................40Answers to: Immigrants Hurt the US Economy............................................................................41Answers to: Immigrants Hurt the US Economy – Wages.............................................................42Answers to: Immigrants Hurt US Economy – Welfare..................................................................43Answers to: Immigrants Hurt US Economy – Remittances..........................................................44

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Summary

This file contains a counterplan designed to solve the affirmative economic growth advantage two disadvantages to working with Mexico on modernizing Points of Entry.

The counterplan argues that there is an alternate way to boos US economic growth and job creation. The counterplan would simplify the corporate tax code by eliminating tax expenditures or loopholes so that every corporation paid taxes on all of their earnings, and lowering the tax rate on those earnings. Currently the United States has one of the highest tax rates in the world, but loopholes mean the government cannot collect revenue from a number of large companies with good accountants. Broadening the base of what income can be taxed and lowering the tax rate would make the system simpler and fairer. It would also boost the economy and lead to more job creation. Since the policy would only effect US companies it would not cause the China or Immigration disadvantage which could both be read as net benefits to the counterplan.

The first is a China disadvantage. This argument claims that China is investing in Mexico to try and increase its influence in Latin America now. An increased investment in Mexico by the United States would crowd out China and prevent China from spreading its influence. The spread of Chinese influence is necessary to solve a variety of global problems by promoting an alternative economic and governance style to the US model.

The second is the immigration disadvantage – this argument claims that if we build up the economy in Mexico, people would be less likely to immigrate to the United States. If fewer immigrants came from Mexico to the United States, our agriculture industry would lose a key source of labor, which would drive up food prices and send millions of people into starvation. It could also hurt the economy overall.

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Glossary

CCP.- Chinese Communist Party, the ruling political party in the People's Republic of China

Tax expenditures- government spending through the tax code. A portion of a company’s earning spent on selected items will not count toward the company’s tax bill. Technical government term also known as “tax loopholes” or “tax breaks”

Zero Sum- a contest in which one person’s loss is equal to another person’s gain

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Points of Entry Off Case DUDA 2013-14Corporate Tax Counterplan Varsity

1NC Corporate Tax CounterplanThe United States Federal government should lower the corporate income tax rate and eliminate special interest tax credits.

The counterplan competes via net benefits. It avoids the [China/Immigration] Disad by not increasing economic engagement with Mexico.

The counterplan solves. Corporate income tax reform would boost the US economy and stimulate job growth across the country.

Schuyler, PhD in Economics is a fellow at the Tax Foundation, 2013(Michael, “Growth Dividend from a Lower Corporate Tax Rate”, The Tax Foundation Special Report, March 12, No . 208, http://taxfoundation.org/sites/taxfoundation.org/files/docs/sr208_0.pdf)

A lower corporate income tax rate would be a tonic for the ailing U.S. economy that would accelerate growth by reducing tax biases against saving and investment. The pro-growth impact would be substantial because investment and the stock of capital are extremely sensitive to the expected after-tax rate of return. a larger, more vibrant economy would help people throughout the nation by generating higher real incomes, a greater supply of goods and services, and more opportunities.The revenue impact would be positive because a corporate tax rate cut of the magnitude often discussed in policy circles would generate a sufficient tax-base expansion to offset the lower tax rate, although revenues would fall for a few years until the upsurge in the capital stock lifted GDD enough to counterbalance the rate cut. Very few tax cuts pay for themselves, but this would be one that does. a lower corporate tax rate would probably be worthwhile due to the benefits from a larger, more prosperous economy even if federal revenues fell; the potential revenue gain is a bonus. an additional bonus is that a less lofty U.S. corporate tax rate would be an effective and relatively painless way to reduce the leakage of taxable corporate income out of the United States and into other nations.

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http://taxfoundation.org/sites/taxfoundation.org/files/docs/sr208_0.pdf


Solvency- Growth and Jobs

[ ] Lowering the tax rate and eliminating loopholes will allow American corporations to remain competitive in a global marketplace, create more jobs and drive growth across the economy.

Kamarck and Pinkerton, co-chairs of The RATE Coalition, a bipartisan group advocating for corporate tax simplification and rate reduction, 2012(Elaine and James, “We need a lower corporate tax rate”, Reuters, April 4, http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2012/04/04/we-need-a-lower-corporate-tax-rate/)

In February, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner announced the outlines of a plan to reduce the U.S. corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 28 percent. Meanwhile, House Republican leaders have united around an even lower rate of 25 percent – the worldwide average tax rate among Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries.

So now the negotiations begin – even during an election year. A rate more in line with the OECD average coupled with the elimination of special interest tax credits and deductions has broad support among policymakers and in the business community. When President Ronald Reagan and congressional Democrats took this approach in the 1980s, it set off a period of record economic growth that produced millions of new jobs and laid the foundation for a period of prosperity that lasted two decades.

It also proved to be a model for the world, much of which followed suit. Over the last 20 years, America’s competitors have lowered their top corporate rates to levels as low as 12.5 percent and 8.5 percent in the cases of Ireland and Switzerland, while the U.S. has not. This has significantly affected America’s ability to compete in an increasingly interconnected global economy. Reforming the tax code presents an opportunity to level the playing field and have every U.S. corporation pay the same, competitive rate. By doing so, we create a fairer, more streamlined code with a broadened base that makes the United States an attractive place to do business.

The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation described the problem last July, saying: “The United States is at risk of losing its global competitive advantage and with it faster per-capita income growth. To effectively respond, the nation must take concerted and strategic actions in a host of areas, including reform of the corporate tax code to transform it into a more effective tool to support private sector efforts to innovate and be more productive.”

Simply put, the nation is in great danger of losing a key component of its competitive edge now that the U.S. has the highest corporate tax rate among industrialized nations. U.S. companies also understand the urgency for the United States to have a competitive tax rate and have begun working for reform: “Being taxed at higher effective tax rates means we have less money available to make capital improvements, invest in innovation and stay competitive, create new jobs, offer higher compensation and better benefits to our employees and offer lower prices to our customers, and [it] makes us less attractive to investors in the capital market,” said Brad Mays, senior vice-president for tax at Macy’s Inc. The current economic recovery is the most anemic in the postwar period. And a dramatic solution is needed. The time has come for both parties to implement corporate tax reform, spur investment and create more jobs in this country.

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Answers to: Corporate Tax Cuts do not create jobs

[ ]

[ ] Lower corporate income tax means more jobs and higher wages.


It is not shown on the chart, but the model also estimates there would be a second benefit to workers from a reduced corporate tax rate: higher compensation. The reason is that as businesses expand in response to a lower corporate rate, they will want more workers, which will require them to pay more, and the influx of new capital will lift worker productivity, which will justify higher wages and benefits. The model estimates that average worker compensation would rise 1.9 percent if the corporate tax rate dropped to 25 percent but fall 2.4 percent if the corporate rate were hiked to 45 percent. in other words, workers would gain from a lower corporate income tax rate because jobs would become more plentiful and pay would get better.

[ ] Corporate tax rates effect every decision made by a company, a reduction in rates would have a multiplier effect across the economy.

Campbell and Ligon, Visiting Fellow in Macroeconomics and Senior Policy Analyst at the Heritage Foundation, 2010(Karen and John, “The Economic Impact of a 25 Percent Corporate Income Tax Rate”, Web Memo #3070 On Taxes, The Heritage Foundation, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/12/the-economic-impact-of-a-25-percent-corporate-income-tax-rate)

The federal corporate rate matters for U.S. economic growth because all corporations’ investment decisions are influenced by the tax rate’s effect on a project’s rate of return. If the after-tax rate of return does not meet the required rate of return for investment, the project will be foregone. Additionally, it influences where multinational businesses decide to invest in new productive capital.Greater investment in the U.S. increases the overall capital stock and the level of technology available to businesses. This increases the productivity of U.S. workers, which increases their real wages.[2] The higher income gives individuals the ability not only to consume more but also to put more into savings. These savings get channeled back into corporations and new ventures, continuing the positive growth cycle.

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http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/12/the-economic-impact-of-a-25-percent-corporate-income-tax-rate

http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/12/the-economic-impact-of-a-25-percent-corporate-income-tax-rate



Answers to: Corporate Tax Cuts do not create jobs- Offshoring

[ ] A. Current tax system encourages companies to off-shore jobs overseas.

Wolverson, writer at the Council on Foreign Relations, 2011(Roya, “Outsourcing jobs and taxes”, Feb 11, Council on Foreign Relations Backgrounder, http://www.cfr.org/united-states/outsourcing-jobs-taxes/p21777#p6)

The current U.S. corporate tax code incentivizes companies to move their business operations overseas, and by extension the offshoring of jobs that would have based in the United States. The debate over outsourcing--the effect it has on U.S. job creation, and the tax regime needed to rein in the practice--has become an important issue on the 2012 presidential campaign trail. Many policymakers and analysts, including President Barack Obama, have repeatedly criticized the outsourcing of jobs abroad by U.S.-based multinational corporations, arguing that it not only reduces job opportunities for U.S. workers at a time of high unemployment, but also hurts U.S. competitiveness in the global economy. The Obama administration has proposed policies to encourage companies to move back to the United States, while closing corporate tax loopholes that make it easier for multinationals to pay limited taxes on their overseas operations. Some Democratic lawmakers, along with union representatives, believe Obama's proposals will help address a weak job market and troubling budget deficits. But Republicans, some Democrats, and industry representatives fear higher taxes on U.S.-based multinationals will lead to an exodus of business, investment, and jobs.

[ ] B. Offshoring hurts US Job growth.

Wolverson, writer at the Council on Foreign Relations, 2011(Roya, “Outsourcing jobs and taxes”, Feb 11, Council on Foreign Relations Backgrounder, http://www.cfr.org/united-states/outsourcing-jobs-taxes/p21777#p6)

U.S. labor representatives and some economists, however, argue that increasing investment and jobs abroad often eliminates them at home. Thea Lee, policy director for the AFL-CIO, says much of the economic data supporting the link between overseas investment and domestic job growth fails to distinguish between foreign investment used to serve market demand for U.S. goods and services and foreign investment used to buy cheaper labor abroad. "A big chunk of investment goes to wealthy countries. But a lot of jobs are shifting to developing countries like China because a company doesn't want to pay American wages and benefits or operate under health and safety regulations," she says. Outsourcing is not a major driver of U.S. employment, says the Center for American Progress' Michael Ettlinger, but it does contribute to job losses in some cases. In a March 2010 New York Times op-ed, the U.S. Business and Industry Council's Alan Tonelson and Kevin Kearns argue that--in addition to diminishing U.S. jobs--corporate off-shoring distorts gains in U.S. productivity.

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Answers to: Trade policy more important than tax policy

[ ]

[ ] US companies face the highest corporate tax rates in the world, these taxes stifle investment and kill economic growth.


The United States currently imposes the highest statutory corporate tax rate in the developed world. contrary to what some believe, studies show that even the effective corporate tax rate in the United States is one of the highest in the world. in a literature review of thirteen credible, independent studies that estimated effective tax rates using a variety of data sources and methods, Philip Dittmer reported that every study found the U.S. effective corporate tax rate to be substantially higher than the average in foreign nations.1 Across all thirteen studies, the U.S. effective corporate tax rate exceeded the foreign average by 7.6 percentage points, if all countries are counted equally.2 The U.S. effective corporate tax rate exceeded the foreign average by 3.7 percentage points, if countries are weighted by their gross domestic products (GDP).Many policymakers and economists believe the steep rate discourages U.S. companies from investing as much as they would otherwise and reduces their competitiveness in international markets. For instance, a study from the organization for economic co-operation and Development (OECD) that compared corporate income taxes, personal income taxes, and consumption taxes concluded, “corporate taxes are found to be most harmful for growth.”3

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Answers to: Tax Cuts Bad- Inequality[ ]

[ ] Economic models prove that all levels of society benefit equally from tax cuts. The effect of the counterplan would be a raise for everyone.

Schuyler, PhD in Econcomics is a fellow at the Tax Foundation, 2013(Michael, “Growth Dividend from a Lower Corporate Tax Rate”, The Tax Foundation Special Report, March 12, No . 208, http://taxfoundation.org/sites/taxfoundation.org/files/docs/sr208_0.pdf)

In the model, changes in the corporate income tax rate affect individual incomes because a lower (higher) tax rate causes he economy to expand (contract). Suppose, for instance, that congress and the president decide to reduce the corporate income tax rate to 25 percent. This would decrease the cost of capital (sometimes known as the service price of capital), and business owners and managers would respond by substantially increasing their capital acquisitions over the course of several years. as the capital stock rose, workers would become more productive because they would have more capital tools with which to work, and their pay and hours would rise due to their higher productivity. Based on historic parameters, about two-thirds of the resulting gains in output and incomes would flow to labor and about onethird to capital. The model estimates that individual tax filers at all income levels (rich, middle class, and working poor) would enjoy roughly similar increases in their after-tax incomes. as shown in table 1, the estimated after-tax income boost would be 2.01 percent for individual filers with AGIs in the $0-$5,000 range, 1.94 percent for individual filers in the $50,000-$75,000 range, and 1.99 percent for individual filers with aGis in the $500,000-$1,000,000 range. The estimated average gain across all aGiclasses would be 1.97 percent.The model estimates that a higher corporate tax rate would have analogous effects on individuals at all income levels, except the result would be across-the-board drops in after-tax incomes due to slower growth

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Answers to: Tax Cuts Bad- Revenue

[ ]

[ ] The government will benefit from increased tax revenue that comes along with a growing economy.


A barrier to moving to a more sensible corporate tax rate, though, is that conventional revenue estimates artificially assume tax changes never have growth effects. it is ironic that although a bigger economic pie is one of the chief motivations for wanting to cut the corporate income tax rate, official revenue estimates assume away the growth effect. if policymakers believe conventional revenue scoring, they will be badly misled because a tax policy

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Answer to: Tax Cuts Bad- Social Policy

[ ]

[ ] Tax loopholes create bad public policy by funneling money and tax breaks to the well-connected special interests. Their unfair nature should be rejected

Horpedahl and Pizzola, assistant professor of economics at Buena Vista University and research assistant, 2012(Jeremy and Brandon M., “A TRILLION LITTLE SUBSIDIES: The Economic Impact of Tax Expenditures in the Federal Income Tax Code” Mercatus Research, http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/TaxExpenditures_Horpedahl_v1-0.pdf)

In short, we conclude that tax expenditures should be eliminated, but only if combined with an offsetting reduction in tax rates. Government revenue would thus stay the same, while economic efficiency and fairness would increase for the nation as a whole. Certainly some taxpayers would see a net tax increase from this “broaden the base, lower the rates” strategy, since some taxpayers benefit disproportionately from the current tax code. But the status quo should not be protected because some individuals stand to lose from changing it.3Tax expenditures also add complexity without necessarily adding benefits. Such expenditures are sometimes the result of accident rather than design, but once a provision is part of the tax code, interest groups will be created and perpetuated to keep that provision. Even when tax code expenditures are used for supposedly benevolent purposes, they often result in unintended behavior, such as cronyism. These expenditures are often gamed by those with political connections (or expensive accountants), resulting in the capture of the tax code for private gain.This subsidizing of the well-connected and well-to-do has substantial costs: The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) reports that in FY 2011 individuals received $891 billion and corporations received $181 billion in tax expenditures.4 To put these figures in perspective, these totals are nearly equal to all the revenue collected by 2011 federal income tax5 or to the entire 2011 discretionary budget of the federal government, and they are greater than annual federal spending on Medicare, Medicaid, or Social Security.

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Points of Entry Off Case DUDA 2013-14China Disadvantage Varsity

China Disadvantage 1NC (1/3)

A. Uniqueness China and Mexico are committed to deepening their economic ties now.

Fox News Latino 6/2/13 (“China's President Wants To Open the Floodgates of Trade with Mexico”, Fox News, June 2 2013, http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/money/2013/06/02/china-president-wants-to-open-floodgates-trade-with-mexico/)//CB

During the April talks, Xi said "he is committed to working with Mexican authorities to help Mexico export more," Mexico's vice minister of foreign relations, Carlos de Icaza, told The Associated Press.That's key for Mexico, because its trade deficit with China is exploding, far surpassing that of any other Latin American nation.While China is looking to assure supplies of raw materials, Mexico is looking to diversify its trade and investment, which have long been dominated by its superpower neighbor to the north."In the new global geopolitical and economic map, China is, and I think it has arrived to stay, the world's second economic power," De Icaza said. Mexico "has to understand and strengthen relations with a nation that has such great strategic value."De Icaza said the countries hope to sign at least a dozen agreements in the fields of trade, energy, tourism, science and technology during Xi's visit.

Mexican exports to China came to a bit over $5.7 billion in 2012, while its imports from that country stood at almost $57 billion, according to statistics from Mexico's Economy Department. Cell phones, video games and parts for electronics factories have been pouring into Mexico, which sends China minerals such as copper and lead.Overall trade between China and Latin America has expanded quickly over the past decade and the continent now imports more from China than it does from the European Union, according to the U.N. economic agency for the region.

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http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/money/2013/06/02/china-president-wants-to-open-floodgates-trade-with-mexico/

http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/money/2013/06/02/china-president-wants-to-open-floodgates-trade-with-mexico/



B. Link- Increased economic engagement crowds out China. Lack of US influence is key to China’s expansion in Latin America.

Shaiken et al, Prof in the Center for Latin American Studies at UC-Berkeley, 2013[Harley, and Enrique Peters – Center for Latin American Studies at the University of Miami. And Adrian Hearn – Centro de Estudios China-Mexixo at Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. China and the New Triangular Relationships in the Americas: China and the Future of US-Mexico Relations, 2013. Pg 7-8]

The dominant strategies of each of the parties and how these strategies evolve over time: Mexico’s regional and global position is being shaped by an increasing accent on diplomatic and trade diversification. The decline in US influence and the expected reforms in the Mexican energy sector may open more room for Mexico to adjust to a growth strategy less dependent on the United States. China’s rising role as a regional and global power and the new economic scenario marked by higher wages and growing concentration in industrial commodities and products are likely to affect the pace of change according to which China’s “going out” strategy will develop in the near future. If Mexico and China reorient their strategies, it is likely that there will be an adjustment in the triangle’s dynamic, which may result in a closer relationship between these two countries.

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C. Impact- Expanding Chinese influence is necessary to solve for a number of global challenges- including global warming, poverty, and international conflict.

Zhang, Prof of Diplomacy and IR at the Geneva School of Diplomacy, 2012[Weiwei. “The Rise of China’s Political Softpower” 9/4/12 http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2012-09/04/content_26421330.htm ]

As China plays an increasingly significant role in the world, its soft power must be attractive both domestically as well as internationally. The world faces many difficulties, including widespread poverty, international conflict, the clash of civilizations and environmental protection. Thus far, the Western model has not been able to decisively address these issues; the China model therefore brings hope that we can make progress in conquering these dilemmas. Poverty and development The Western-dominated global economic order has worsened poverty in developing countries. Per-capita consumption of resources in developed countries is 32 times as large as that in developing countries. Almost half of the population in the world still lives in poverty. Western countries nevertheless still are striving to consolidate their wealth using any and all necessary means. In contrast, China forged a new path of development for its citizens in spite of this unfair international order which enabled it to virtually eliminate extreme poverty at home. This extensive experience would indeed be helpful in the fight against global poverty. War and peace In the past few years, the American model of "exporting democracy'" has produced a more turbulent world, as the increased risk of terrorism threatens global security. In contrast, China insists that "harmony is most precious". It is more practical, the Chinese system argues, to strengthen international cooperation while addressing both the symptoms and root causes of terrorism. The clash of civilizations Conflict between Western countries and the Islamic world is intensifying. "In a world, which is diversified and where multiple civilizations coexist, the obligation of Western countries is to protect their own benefits yet promote benefits of other nations," wrote Harvard University professor Samuel P. Huntington in his seminal 1993 essay "The Clash of Civilizations?". China strives for "being harmonious yet remaining different", which means to respect other nations, and learn from each other. This philosophy is, in fact, wiser than that of Huntington, and it's also the reason why few religious conflicts have broken out in China. China's stance in regards to reconciling cultural conflicts, therefore, is more preferable than its "self-centered" Western counterargument. Environmental protection Poorer countries and their people are the most obvious victims of global warming, yet they are the least responsible for the emission of greenhouse gases. Although Europeans and Americans have a strong awareness of environmental protection, it is still hard to change their extravagant lifestyles. Chinese environmental protection standards are not yet ideal, but some effective environmental ideas can be extracted from the China model.

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Chinese Influence High

[ ]

[ ] China’s pursuing increased influence in Latin America

Goodman, . Latin America Desk for Bloomberg BusinessWeek, 2013[Joshua. Latin America Desk for Bloomberg BusinessWeek. “Biden Circles Xi as U.S. Duels China for Latin America Ties” 5/29/13 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-29/biden-circles-xi-as-u-s-duels-china-for-latin-america-influence.html]

For Xi, his week-long tour of Trinidad, Costa Rica and Mexico precedes a visit to California for his first face-to-face talks with Obama since taking office.¶ The trip to Latin America and the Caribbean, coming so early in Xi’s presidency, reflects the rising confidence of the Chinese leadership as it pursues its strategic interests with little concern for U.S. reaction, said Evan Ellis, a professor at the National Defense University in Washington. China in recent years has ousted the U.S. to become the top trade partner for Brazil and Chile.¶ “In the past Chinese presidents were very deferential to the U.S., always making reference to Washington’s backyard,” said Ellis, the author of dozens of papers and a book about China’s penetration of Latin America. “You don’t hear any of that from Xi’s team, though you don’t find any threatening rhetoric either.”

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Link: Economic Engagement

[ ] An economic approach to relations draws Mexico closer to the US

Valencia, contributing writer for Global Voices Online, 2013(Robert, “U.S. and Latin America – Economic Cooperation Without Militarization?”, 5/20/13 www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2013/05/20/us-and-latin-america-economic-cooperation-without-militarization)¶

In May, President Barack Obama visited Mexico and Costa Rica and vowed to strengthen economic ties with these two countries and the rest of Latin America. He pledged to expand renewable energy development and education initiatives in recognition of the joined fates of the United States and Latin America. This approach to Latin America is refreshing, but its impact on the ongoing War on Drugs remains to be seen. Undoubtedly, the United States bears much of the responsibility for the failed campaign, but the Obama administration has seen that some Latin American countries are taking their own lead in tackling the drug trade and are increasingly relying less on Washington. The Obama administration, for its part, has realized that shifting the legendary treatment of Latin America as the U.S.’ “backyard” to an economic approach would draw Latin America closer to Washington, especially given the fact that Latin American leaders like Mexico’s Enrique Peña Nieto and Brazilian President Dilma Rouseff want to be considered trade partners and not U.S. subordinates.

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http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2013/05/20/us-and-latin-america-economic-cooperation-without-militarization

http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2013/05/20/us-and-latin-america-economic-cooperation-without-militarization


Link: Border Infrastructure

[ ] Creating a modern border infrastructure is crucial to developing the Mexico-US commercial relationship

New Policy Institute, 2012(Research Team of Alejandro Figueroa, Research and Policy Analyst, NACTS Erik Lee, Associate Director, NACTS Rick Van Schoik, Director, NACTS, “Realizing the Full Value of Crossborder Trade with Mexico,” North American Center for Transborder Studies, 2/9/2012)¶

Sharing a 2,000-mile long border needs to be recognized as both a challenge and an opportunity. While land ports of entry between the two nations were first envisioned to process the legitimate crossing of people, goods and services across the border, security has taking a dominant role in recent years, hampering the ability of federal agencies to efficiently manage border traffic. Advances in border infrastructure simply did not happen during the last decade, which is astounding given the greatly expanded post-NAFTA binational commercial relationship. Our border’s infrastructure and capacity today reflects the needs of a bygone era. This became evident as never before when on September 14, 2011, the San Ysidro, California port of entry —the busiest land port of entry in the world—had to shut down its 24 north-bound lanes due to the collapse of part of its roof, injuring several people and damaging vehicles trying to cross into the U.S. from Tijuana, Mexico. ¶ According to a report by the San Diego Association of Governments, inadequate infrastructure capacity just at the border crossings between San Diego County and the state of Baja California creates traffic congestion and delays that cost both the U.S. and Mexican economies on average an estimated $7.2 billion in forgone gross output and more than 62,000 jobs on an annual basis. These border delays could cause $86 billion in output losses over the next ten years. ¶ “The border has been a filter to what shouldn’t get in, when it can be a facilitator to what should get in.” —Rachel Poynter, U.S. State Department ¶ These delays are significant for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that American firms are constantly attempting to reduce their inventory costs in an attempt to remain competitive. While importing from China to the U.S. may require a company to hold more than 100 days of inventory, if efficiently managed, our proximity to Mexico can provide American firms with a constant and predictable flow of goods that may reduce inventory costs and provide firms the ability to respond rapidly and effectively to sudden market changes. With this fundamental fact in mind, in May of 2010 the U.S. and Mexico signed the 21st Century Border Management Joint Declaration. Recognizing the importance of fostering the commercial relationship, both countries have agreed to coordinate efforts to enhance the economic competitiveness by expediting lawful trade. The idea is that development of modern and secure 16 ¶ border infrastructure will give an added boost to our region’s competitiveness in the world and at the same time increase our access to a wider, more affordable and ever improving quality set of goods.

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Link: Border Infrastructure

[ ] Cross border infrastructure building is crucial for economic integration

New Policy Institute, 2012(Research Team of Alejandro Figueroa, Research and Policy Analyst, NACTS Erik Lee, Associate Director, NACTS Rick Van Schoik, Director, NACTS, “Realizing the Full Value of Crossborder Trade with Mexico,” North American Center for Transborder Studies, 2/9/2012)¶

Today more than 75,000 trucks (carrying close to 80 % of our two-way trade) cross our border on a daily basis. That this much traffic is able to cross our congested borders is due in part to important advances in border infrastructure in the last couple of years as new ports of entry have been opened. One important policy development is master planning processes for regional border infrastructure, which have been initiated in conjunction with local border communities and state governments. It is hoped that these regional processes will eventually make the overall binational infrastructure-building process more transparent, more robust and ultimately a better fit for two such powerful economies and next door neighbors. ¶ Much Opportunity, but the Real Work Has Only Just Begun ¶ Total trade between the United States and Mexico has expanded by more than 600% since 1990. Yet we need further commitment and investment in the infrastructure needed to sustain such growth, which is critical for both economies. The question now is whether our current border management system will be able to sustain that growth, and if so, for how much longer. A strong trade/joint production relationship with Mexico can help create high-quality jobs within our borders. ¶ For reasons of geography and history, Mexico’s fate is intertwined with that of the United States. And despite the current global economic environment, and transnational organized crime affecting Mexico and the United States, the two countries need to implement a 21st Century border that not only re-invigorates crossborder trade and economic integration but which will also lead to increased safety and quality of life for the residents of both countries. ¶ Both countries need to remain committed to promoting the global competitiveness of our region and to ensuring that the benefits of expanding trade flows keep reaching businesses, workers and consumers on both sides of our shared border. We will be able to accomplish this if leaders can explain the critical nature of our commercial relationships in ways that are more concrete and easier for citizens to understand. It is past time for our shared border to begin to meet tomorrow’s demands, acting as a facilitator and conductor of the lawful flows of goods, services and people between our nations, so that we may capitalize on the full potential of our partnership. If a billion dollars’ worth of trade crosses the U.S.-Mexico border on a daily basis and sustains six million jobs in the U.S., imagine what could be accomplished with a truly 21st century border.

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Impact: Latin American Growth

[ ] China – not the US – is key to Latin American growth

Ellis, Assistant Professor of National Security Studies at the National Defense University 2011[R. Evan.. “Chinese Soft Power in Latin America: A Case Study” Joint Force Quarterly, Vol 60. 2011. http://www.ndu.edu/press/chinese-soft-power-latin-america.html]

Access to Latin American Markets. Latin American markets are becoming increasingly valuable for Chinese companies because they allow the PRC to expand and diversify its export base at a time when economic growth is slowing in traditional markets such as the United States and Europe. The region has also proven an effective market for Chinese efforts to sell more sophisticated, higher value added products in sectors seen as strategic, such as automobiles, appliances, computers and telecommunication equipment, and aircraft. In expanding access for its products through free trade accords with countries such as Chile, Peru, and Costa Rica, and penetrating markets in Latin American countries with existing manufacturing sectors such as Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina, the PRC has often had to overcome resistance by organized and often politically well-connected established interests in those nations. In doing so, the hopes of access to Chinese markets and investments among key groups of businesspeople and government officials in those nations have played a key role in the political will to overcome the resistance. In Venezuela, it was said that the prior Chinese ambassador to Venezuela, Zheng Tuo, was one of the few people in the country who could call President Chávez on the telephone and get an instant response if an issue arose regarding a Chinese company.

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Impact: Turns Trade

[ ] Chinese influence promotes trade and economic growth in Mexico.

Shaiken et al, Professor in the Center for Latin American Studies at UC-Berkeley, 2013[Harley, and Enrique Peters – Center for Latin American Studies at the University of Miami. And Adrian Hearn – Centro de Estudios China-Mexixo at Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. China and the New Triangular Relationships in the Americas: China and the Future of US-Mexico Relations, 2013. Pg 7-8]

Some countries may find that their shares in regional markets are diminishing with the arrival of outside countries prompted by the framework of the WTO, yet the presence and influence of external countries may bring new opportunities to these regions. For example, in regards to the relationship between China and Mexico, the two countries may compete to some degree in terms of exporting to the United States. However, Chinese-Mexican relations go far beyond exporting to the U.S. market. As an emerging power and a representative of a region enjoying robust economic development, China now means more to Mexico economically than does the United States.

Firstly, the adjustment of China’s economic structure may help to change the false impression of Chinese-Mexican trade relations and allow Mexico to further pursue interests in economic cooperation with China. In regards to Chinese-Mexican relations, the common perception is that the two countries compete with each other in the U.S. market due to the fact that their exports are very similar. However, this may not necessarily be the case, as some scholars have pointed out that the competition between China and Mexico has been exaggerated, and in fact the two nations complement each other in more aspects than in which they compete (Xie 2005). Moreover, China does not want to become involved in trade conflicts with other developing countries, given that it is trying to change the mode of its economic development and update its export structure. With a stronger focus on bolstering its domestic market and supplying more high-value products to the world, China hopes that it can further coordinate its own production with Mexico and other developing countries. In addition, China is able to provide Mexico with new markets and investors. It would be erroneous, therefore, to simply define Chinese-Mexican economic relations in terms of competition for the US market. China’s increasing engagement with Mexico and Latin America has the potential to positively impact numerous aspects of these transnational relations.¶

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Answers to: United States engagement durable

[ ]

[ ] Some collaboration might be inevitable, but the increase in economic engagement facilitated by the plan is distinctStratfor 2013[Stratfor Global Intelligence. “ Evolving U.S.-Mexico Relations and Obama's Visit” 5/2/13 http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/evolving-us-mexico-relations-and-obamas-visit ]

Domestic political factors will determine the success of the pending overhauls. But the labor reform could improve bilateral commerce and investment with the United States, as would a successful liberalization of the country's energy sector in the coming years. Mexico is already the United States' third-largest trading partner, and economic coordination between the two countries has become a routine matter at the ministerial level, but there is still a need to ease bureaucratic trade and investment barriers.

[ ] US actions never aligned with the rhetoric of politicians in regards to Latin America.

Padgett, Latin America Reporter for TIME, 2013[Timothy.. “The Obama Administration Looks to Latin America After Years of Neglect” TIME, 5/13/13 http://world.time.com/2013/05/13/has-washington-finally-discovered-latin-america/#ixzz2UhOE2vcE

There are of course skeptics. I asked Robert Pastor, a former White House national security advisor for Latin America and now an international relations professor at American University in Washington, D.C., if he thinks the U.S. is doing enough to keep itself relevant in the Americas.¶ “No it’s not,” he says. “President Obama’s trip (to Mexico and Central America) is a good first step, but he needs to do a lot more to open up and show America’s interest in re-engaging with the rest of South America.”¶ Pastor has a point: for decades, Latin America has heard a lot of rhetoric from the U.S. about engagement -- the kind Biden offered the Council of the Americas in Washington recently, when he declared that the hemisphere “matters more (to the U.S.) today because it has more potential than any time in American history.”

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http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/evolving-us-mexico-relations-and-obamas-visit


Answers to: US Economic Engagement with Mexico now

[ ]

[ ] Chinese influence is outpacing the US in Mexico.

Menedez, economist and principal of The Cordoba Group International LLC, 2013[Fernando. “The East is rising, in Latin America” 5/10/13 http://www.thecommentator.com/article/3488/the_east_is_rising_in_latin_america]

Trade with China has also increased dramatically over the last decade. For example, China now accounts for 19 percent of Brazil’s total trade as compared with 2.8 percent in 2001. Similarly, China accounts for nearly 20 percent of Chile’s total trade in contrast to 5.6 percent a decade ago. China has also concluded free-trade agreements with both Chile and Peru opening up those markets to Chinese manufactured goods.¶ By 2014, China will overtake the European Union as Latin America’s second largest trading partner after the United States. While it still has some way to go in potentially overtaking the United States as the leading trade partner, it is, nevertheless, probable.¶ Most recently, Brazil and China signed an agreement to pay for $30 billion in trade per year using local currencies and thus dropping the dollar. There is also general speculation concerning a new renminbi-based currency, which, if it does not replace the dollar or the euro, may well become a significant alternative foreign currency backed by commodities and natural resources. Some even speak of a renminbi trading bloc.¶ All of these moves demonstrate the power of China’s purse, which the US is increasingly unable to match. The speed and extent of China’s growth in Latin America also raises concerns about its geopolitical and military policy objectives in the Americas. Many Chinese firms, especially in telecommunications, have longstanding ties to the People’s Liberation Army, and that should raise red flags.

[ ] Mexico making moves to engage economically with China

New York Times, 2013 (Elisabeth Malkin, staff writer, “Chinese President Makes Bridge-Building Trip to Mexico”, The New York Times, June 4 2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/05/world/americas/xi-makes-bridge-building-trip-to-mexico.html?_r=0)//CB

Latin American leaders have long complained that Washington pays too little attention to the rest of the hemisphere’s concerns, and China has begun to take advantage of that perception.

As Latin America and the Caribbean become less dependent on the United States, “they have another economic ally, and that economic ally is a superpower,” said S. Lynne Walker, the director of the China-Americas program at the Institute of the Americas in California.Matt Ferchen, a scholar at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy in Beijing, suggested that President Xi’s itinerary may also be intended as a message to the United States. “China wants to remind the U.S. that just as the U.S. has influence in regions close to China, China too has rising influence in the Americas,” he wrote in an e-mail.

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http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/05/world/americas/xi-makes-bridge-building-trip-to-mexico.html?_r=0

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/05/world/americas/xi-makes-bridge-building-trip-to-mexico.html?_r=0


Answers to United States won’t crowd out China

[ ]

[ ] US-Mexico economic relations crowd out China.

Fischer, Analyst for Capitol Media, 2012[Howard. Analyst for Capitol Media. “Fox says US-Mexico ties deter China's influence” 9/14/12 http://azstarnet.com/news/local/border/fox-says-us-mexico-ties-deter-china-s-influence/article_b8fd3834-acdc-5b33-b1fb-d983fdf8d2de.html]

Former Mexican President Vicente Fox said the United States has to bolster ties with Mexico - including recognizing the benefits of migrant labor - or get used to the idea of China setting the international agenda on its own terms.¶ "The threat is this so-called power shift from the West to the East," he told a press conference Thursday at an economic development event organized by the city of Peoria.¶ "Those nations on the East are getting ready and prepared to lead," Fox explained, saying there are forecasts showing the Chinese economy will be larger than that of the United States within a dozen years. "And that means a very important question to all of us: Under what principles are those leading nations (going to) be exercising their leadership?" Fox said.¶ His point: The U.S. would be better off dealing with Mexico and other Latin American countries than perhaps those with different worldviews.¶ "We have our values in the West that we share," Fox said. "So we all on this continent, especially North America, must get ready to meet that challenge."¶ That means bolstering the economies of the United States and Mexico, he said.¶ If the West wants to keep its edge, Fox said, there needs to be a recognition that Mexicans in the United States, legally or not, contribute to the economy of both countries. And that, he said, will require resolving the issue of who can come to this country and under what circumstances.¶ "

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http://azstarnet.com/news/local/border/fox-says-us-mexico-ties-deter-china-s-influence/article_b8fd3834-acdc-5b33-b1fb-d983fdf8d2de.html

http://azstarnet.com/news/local/border/fox-says-us-mexico-ties-deter-china-s-influence/article_b8fd3834-acdc-5b33-b1fb-d983fdf8d2de.html


Answers to United States won’t crowd out China

[ ]

[ ] International perception will see a tradeoff- China’s market potential, influence in Latin America, and perception of emergence are key to soft power.


In general, the bases of Chinese soft power differ from those of the United States, leading analysts to underestimate that power when they compare the PRC to the United States on those factors that are the sources of U.S. influence, such as the affinity of the world's youth for American music, media, and lifestyle, the widespread use of the English language in business and technology, or the number of elites who have learned their professions in U.S. institutions. It is also important to clarify that soft power is based on perceptions and emotion (that is, inferences), and not necessarily on objective reality. Although China's current trade with and investment position in Latin America are still limited compared to those of the United States,3 its influence in the region is based not so much on the current size of those activities, but rather on hopes or fears in the region of what it could be in the future.¶ Because perception drives soft power, the nature of the PRC impact on each country in Latin America is shaped by its particular situation, hopes, fears, and prevailing ideology. The "Bolivarian socialist" regime of Hugo Chávez in Venezuela sees China as a powerful ally in its crusade against Western "imperialism," while countries such as Peru, Chile, and Colombia view the PRC in more traditional terms as an important investor and trading partner within the context of global free market capitalism.¶ The core of Chinese soft power in Latin America, as in the rest of the world, is the widespread perception that the PRC, because of its sustained high rates of economic growth and technology development, will present tremendous business opportunities in the future, and will be a power to be reckoned with globally. In general, this perception can be divided into seven areas:¶ hopes for future access to Chinese markets¶ hopes for future Chinese investment¶ influence of Chinese entities and infrastructure in Latin America ¶ hopes for the PRC to serve as a counterweight to the United States and Western institutions¶ China as a development model ¶ affinity for Chinese culture and work ethic¶ China as "the wave of the future."¶ In each of these cases, the soft power of the PRC can be identified as operating through distinct sets of actors: the political leadership of countries, the business community, students and youth, and the general population.

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Answers To: Chinese Influence Bad- Latin America[ ]

[ ] Chinese interaction in Latin American market’s inevitable

Shaiken et al, Prof in the Center for Latin American Studies at UC-Berkeley, 2013[Harley, and Enrique Peters – Center for Latin American Studies at the University of Miami. And Adrian Hearn – Centro de Estudios China-Mexixo at Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. China and the New Triangular Relationships in the Americas: China and the Future of US-Mexico Relations, 2013. Pg 7-8]

Several policy recommendations result from this analysis. First, solely bilateral negotiations, i.e. between just the U.S. and China or just Mexico and China, are not sufficient given the quick and profound shifts in trade occurring in the NAFTA region. Thus, long-term NAFTA-China trade negotiations seem to not only be plausible, but inevitable, given the comprehensive production and trade integration between Mexico and the U.S. Second, NAFTA countries require additional policies and incentives to encourage competitiveness in the region, particularly regarding the manufacturing sector. Behind the substantial trade losses since the year 2000 are million of jobs. If the governments of the United States and Mexico are sincere in their aim to maintain and increase high-quality jobs, manufacturing will play a critical role. Coordination of policies in these areas within NAFTA – from industrial and innovation policies to research and development – should be promoted actively not only at the national level, but at the regional level as well.

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Answers to: Chinese Influence bad- US Leadership

[ ]

[ ] Chinese influence in Latin America doesn’t hurt US leadership position, and economic growth actually helps the US in the long run.

Jiang, Deputy Director of the Institute of Latin American Studies (ILAS) of the Chinese Academy of Social SciencesThree, 2007[Shixue Jiang, Three Factors in the Recent Development of Sino-Latin American Relations, ENTER THE DRAGON? China’s Presence in Latin America, 2007, http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/EnterDragonFinal.pdf]

The news media in the United States have been portraying a wrong perception of the development of Chinese relations with Latin America. One editorial in the Wall Street Journal, for instance, says, “The rise of China in the region could complicate U.S. efforts to control illegal immigration, weapons shipments, the drug trade and money laundering because China is cooperating with Latin countries that are not especially friendly toward those efforts. Some of these nations may try to use the Chinese alternative to challenge U.S. hegemony.”5 The United States’ concern over the closer relationship between China and Latin America is misplaced and unnecessary. It is well-known that Latin America has been on the path of reform and opening to the outside world for almost two decades. It endeavors to attract more foreign investment and liberalize the market so as to stimulate growth. As a result, China is only one of the economic partners with whom Latin America has been trying to cooperate. China understands well that Latin America is the backyard of the United States, so China has no intention whatsoever to challenge the American hegemony in Latin America. Both China and Latin America have been opening to the outside world. In the age of globalization both of them should cooperate to push forward South-South cooperation. As a matter of fact, further cooperation between China and Latin America will benefit regional peace and development in the Asia-Pacific region and in Latin America. Such an outcome would also certainly favor the United States.

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http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/EnterDragonFinal.pdf


Answers to: Chinese Softpower Fails

[ ]

[ ] Chinese influence’s effective in the context of Latin America


China as "the Wave of the Future." Perhaps China's greatest source of soft power is the most intangible. China's emergence as a key global player is a phenomenon that has assumed almost mystical proportions within Latin America. The rapid growth in PRC trade with and investment in Latin America, and the expansion of contacts at all levels, only reinforce the perceived significance of "China's rise," as observed from Latin America.¶ In addition to opportunism for commerce, Latin America's belief in the rise of China and its globally transformational implications draws the attention of the people and leaders of the region to the PRC and shapes their course of action. Costa Rican president Oscar Arias, for example, established regular diplomatic relations with the PRC as a necessary part of ensuring the relevance of his country as an international actor.¶ At the popular level, the rise of China is most likely behind a swelling interest in the Chinese language in the region. The dedication of 5 or more years by students to gain a basic capability in the Mandarin language and its character set, for example, is arguably driven by their calculation that the ability to communicate in Chinese will be fundamental to the pursuit of opportunities in the PRC, and with Chinese businessmen and government officials, in the future

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Points of Entry Off Case DUDA 2013-14Immigration Disadvantage Varsity

Immigration Disadvantage 1NC (1/3)

A. Uniqueness and Link - relieving border congestion would build the Mexican economy and eliminate the motivation for illegal immigration into the United States.

Litan, Director of Research at Bloomberg Government , 2013(Robert E., Director of Research at Bloomberg Government, March 20, “An Innovative Third Way to Break Immigration Gridlock”, BGov Briefs, Bloomberg, http://go.bloomberg.com/bgov-briefs/2013/03/20/an-innovative-third-way-to-break-immigration-gridlock/”

The solution: Spend several billion dollars now to improve border infrastructure and to help boost U.S.-Mexico trade. A modest amount spent to encourage exports would create more jobs in Mexico, decreasing emigration, and prove more cost-effective than spending tens of billions of dollars to gain control of remote border areas. This conclusion follows from three propositions. First, economic factors are potentially more important than heightened border control efforts in limiting illegal immigration. BGOV research shows a tight correlation between apprehensions of illegal immigrants at the southern border and the ratio of gross domestic product growth rates in the U.S. and Mexico. When that ratio increased during the 1980s, border apprehensions rose to 1.7 million in 1986 from 760,000 in 1980. Conversely, when the GDP ratio falls, as it did during most of the post-1986 period, apprehensions decline. The trend has become even more pronounced since 2006, when the Mexican economy outperformed the U.S. economy in all but one year. That led to a precipitous decline in apprehensions to fewer than 400,000 in 2012 from more than 1 million in 2006. Second, border security is expensive. The Customs and Border Protection Agency spent about $11.6 billion on border enforcement in fiscal year 2012, increasing more than 30 percent from the average annual amount spent during President George W. Bush’s second term. Better border control driven by more security spending won’t necessarily reduce apprehensions to less than 400,000 a year. BGOV estimates that it might cost $28 billion a year to completely seal the border by 2019. In this age of budget austerity, it’s inconceivable that another $16 billion a year could be found to completely insulate the border. Third, more trade between the two countries would prove a cost-effective way to bring down an already reduced level of illegal immigration. BGOV research shows another important correlation: more Mexican exports means more stable employment for young Mexican males, who most often cross the border illegally to search for work in the U.S. This finding suggests that if more money is spent at the border, it’s better to improve and expand checkpoints, which would reduce delays in moving imported and exported goods, than to build and monitor a longer fence. More exports of goods to the U.S. from Mexico would expand the current $500 billion bilateral trade relationship and provide more jobs for Mexican workers at home.

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http://go.bloomberg.com/bgov-briefs/2013/03/20/an-innovative-third-way-to-break-immigration-gridlock/

http://go.bloomberg.com/bgov-briefs/2013/03/20/an-innovative-third-way-to-break-immigration-gridlock/



B. Internal Link – immigrant labor is essential to US agriculture – and it keeps food prices low.

Scheiner, correspondent at CNS news, 2013(Eric, “Immigrant Workers Are Needed to Keep Down Food Prices,” CNS News, March 12, Online: http://cnsnews.com/news/article/agriculture-secretary-immigrant-workers-are-needed-keep-down-food-prices)

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said that immigration reform is needed so “we can continue to afford the luxury of having some of the least-expensive food in the world.” Vilsack’s comments came during the USDA’s 2013 Ag Outlook Conference last month. The agriculture secretary made a call for immigration reform that, “Creates an opportunity for these folks to be here legitimately, so that they can provide the labor and the work that's necessary for our producers, so we in this country can continue to enjoy the extraordinary diversity of agriculture that we have and that we can continue to afford the luxury of having some of the least-expensive food in the world.” Vilsack claimed that a percentage of the labor used in agriculture is in the country illegally and that crops will rot unpicked without their assistance. “Agriculture relies to a great extent on immigrant labor, and everybody in this room understands and appreciates that a good deal of that labor isn't necessarily in this country legally. And that has been the case for a long time,” Vilsack said. “This is a risk to agriculture, and we are beginning to see the implications of that risk because we've had crops that were grown last year that could not be harvested, because there simply weren't enough hands to pick them.”

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http://cnsnews.com/news/article/agriculture-secretary-immigrant-workers-are-needed-keep-down-food-prices

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/agriculture-secretary-immigrant-workers-are-needed-keep-down-food-prices



C. Impact – rising food prices prevent millions of Americans from being able to afford food

Sepulvado, CNN correspondent, 2011(John, “Rising food prices could drive up rates of hunger,” CNN, March 16, Online: http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/03/15/rising.food.prices/index.html)

Keystone food commodities like corn, soybeans and wheat have already increased 149% this past decade, according to the New America Foundation's Smart Strategy Initiative Director Patrick Doherty. Doherty recently wrote for CNN that the U.S. is too vulnerable to rising food and oil prices, and that strong policy decisions are needed to steer the economy through the prolonged price spikes. "With persistent high unemployment, oil fueling more than 95% of America's transportation system, and transportation costs running 24% of income in suburbia and in exurbia, 35%, America's middle class is extraordinarily exposed," writes Doherty. For families already on the brink, such increases could be devastating. "If prices go up any more, you are going to see more people here and other food banks," says Community Market director Elsie Lott. "You can see it every day. People that used to give us food are now asking for it." Hunger already a 'social fever' Over the past year in Lee County, Alabama, more than 3,000 families accessed the Community Market food bank. Nationwide, the Gallup Organization reports 16%have gone hungry during the year due to finances. "Hunger is like a persistent social fever in our country," says Jim Weill, president of the Food Research and Action Center. "It is like a malignant social ill that leaves the country weaker, and more susceptible to other problems like poorer educational performance and health problems." FRAC advocates for federal funding of food programs as a way of solving hunger. "If you look at other wealthy societies, mostly European, but also some Asian, they have a vastly different hunger problem than we do," Weill says. "Fewer people in those countries go hungry. The sharing of economic growth and the sharing of affluence lifts a lot of people out of poverty and hunger." A recent New York Times data sheet shows those differences plainly. In Singapore 2% of the population goes hungry. Advanced economic countries of Sweden, Denmark, Germany France, England and Switzerland all have fewer hungry people than the United States. Renewed focus on feeding children To curb this trend, especially among children, many private businesses annually help fill the pantries of the poor. Bank of America, Xerox and Geico help food banks around the country. Small businesses have also helped extensively in underserved communities. In the Tuscaloosa area, for example, the Alabama Credit Union funds a food program called Secret Meals for Hungry Children. Enrollment has swelled has from 18 participants to more than 900 in a little more than two years. "The thing that most surprises me is the numbers," says the program's administrator, Dusti Monk. "I think it was a little naive of me to think that hunger was a third world country issue, when it's right here in our backyards."

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http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/03/15/rising.food.prices/index.html


Link Extension – Mexican Growth Reduces Immigration Rates

[ ]

[ ] Data on economic growth & immigration rates proves – a prosperous economy reduces the flow of immgrants.

Bloomberg News May 2013“Border Delays Cost U.S. $7.8 Billion as Fence Is Focus” By Amanda J. Crawford 5/14/13 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-15/border-delays-cost-u-s-7-8-billion-as-fence-is-focus.html

Delays at U.S.-Mexico border crossings cost the U.S. economy $7.8 billion in 2011, as improvements have lagged behind traffic growth and the political focus has been on securing the rest of the border. The toll could balloon to $14.7 billion annually if the value of U.S.-Mexico truck trade reaches $463 billion by 2020 as predicted, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. As the U.S. Senate debates an overhaul of the nation’s immigration system, the focus on fencing and securing remote stretches of the southern border has overshadowed long-needed improvements in technology, infrastructure and staffing at the land ports, said Matthew Hummer, a senior transportation analyst for Bloomberg Government. “I think the most important issue here is stabilizing the two economies, and the ports of entry do that: They facilitate trade and create job opportunities,” said Hummer, the author of a Bloomberg Government report on the border. “If Mexicans have jobs in Mexico they are less likely to come to the U.S.” Net Mexican migration dropped to zero from 2005 to 2010, amid strengthening economic conditions in Mexico, heightened border enforcement and other factors, according to a Pew Research Center study last year. The Mexican economy has grown at about twice the pace of the U.S. since the end of 2009.

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Impact Add-On: US Economic Decline (1/2)

[ ] Lack of low-skilled immigration would collapse the US economy

Goodrich, Editor of Richmond Law Review, 2008(Jonathan G., “Help Wanted: Looking for Visa System that Promotes the U.S. Economy and National Security. March 2008. 42 U. Rich. L. Rev. 975. Lexis)

As the population ages, experts predict a stark decline in U.S. fertility rate, which is expected [*989] to fall below replacement level in the next fifteen years. In addition, Americans are becoming more educated. Today, American adults are more than twice as likely as foreign-born adults to have a high school education. Yet, over the next five years the U.S. economy will create forty-two million new jobs, almost half of which will open for workers with a high school education or less. Because American workers are now less likely to seek these jobs, another labor source is needed. Unfortunately, rather than aid American business, current immigration policies inhibit vital American industries from hiring the workers they need to compete. The employment-based immigrant visa system offers only one option for low-skilled workers. That sole preference category furnishes visas for a paltry five thousand workers. But the U.S. economy may need as many as five hundred thousand low-skilled workers. Different weaknesses hamper the temporary visa system available to agricultural and other seasonal workers. While available for an unlimited number of temporary agricultural workers, the bureaucratic H-2A visa process requires confusing certifications and long waits. The H-2B visa, available to temporary workers in non-agricultural sectors, is arbitrarily capped at 66,000 per year. Worse still, the "temporary" work available under an H-2B visa is defined so restrictively as to prohibit these visas for many employers. This system ignores the needs of the American economy. "For [essential] workers, legal channels for migration are narrow while the economic incentives, underpinned by labor demand from U.S. employers and consumers, remain strong. Consequently, many seek employment through illegal channels." In direct conflict with the American approach to the flow of goods and investments, "policy restrictions on the international movement of labor are tight." The absence of a stable legal workforce stunts the efficiency and growth of the U.S. economy. Businesses employing unauthorized migrants are less likely to invest in training that could improve productivity and create a more highly skilled workforce. Depressing the upward mobility of millions of workers precludes these hard workers from joining in the entrepreneurial spirit that has historically distinguished the U.S. economy. Government revenues are also taking a hit. The absence of legal channels for the migration of low-skilled workers decreases sales, property, income, and payroll taxes due to either fewer authorized workers in the country or to more unauthorized workers employed off-the-books. The massive and ineffective expenditures on border patrols and fences also depletes money available for economically productive uses, such as loans to recently arrived immigrants or the creation of a more effective immigrant tracking system. Left unaddressed, today's shortcomings will also place the future needs of the U.S. economy in jeopardy. Alan Greenspan once noted that a tight labor market is the greatest threat to the health of the American economy. A lack of farm workers to pick lettuce or builders to frame homes results in higher prices. As the price of food and homes escalates, the ripple created by a labor shortage quickly influences other prices. And inflation sets in. As Americans age and become better educated, immigrant labor is the best way to solve the labor shortage and ensure economic growth.

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Impact Add-On: US Economic Decline (2/2)

[ ] US economic decline undermines our ability to maintain global peace – it would force US military withdrawal.

Duncan, Chief Economist at Blackhorse Asset Management and analyst for Bloomberg, 2012 (Richard, The New Depression, pg. 129)

The political battle over America’s future would be bitter, and quite possibly bloody. It cannot be guaranteed that the U.S. Constitution would survive. Foreign affairs would also confront the United States with enormous challenges. During the Great Depression, the United States did not have a global empire. Now it does. The United States maintains hundreds of military bases across dozens of countries around the world. Added to this is a fleet of 11 aircraft carriers and 18 nuclear-armed submarines. The country spends more than $650 billion a year on its military. If the U.S. economy collapses into a New Great Depression, the United States could not afford to maintain its worldwide military presence or to continue in its role as global peacekeeper. Or, at least, it could not finance its military in the same way it does at present. Therefore, either the United States would have to find an alternative funding method for its global military presence or else it would have to radically scale it back. Historically, empires were financed with plunder and territorial expropriation. The estates of the vanquished ruling classes were given to the conquering generals, while the rest of the population was forced to pay imperial taxes. The U.S. model of empire has been unique. It has financed its global military presence by issuing government debt, thereby taxing future generations of Americans to pay for this generation’s global supremacy. That would no longer be possible if the economy collapsed. Cost–benefit analysis would quickly reveal that much of America’s global presence was simply no longer affordable. Many—or even most—of the outposts that did not pay for themselves would have to be abandoned.

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Impact Turns Case: Food Price Spike Causes Poverty & Hunger

[ ] An increase in food prices would send 44 million people into hunger and poverty eliminating the benefits of growth..

USA Today, 2011(“Soaring food prices send millions into poverty, hunger,” March 11, Online: http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/industries/food/2011-03-17-food-costs-world-hunger.htm)

Corn has soared 52% the past 12 months. Sugar’s up 60%. Soybeans have jumped 41%. And wheat costs 24% more than it did a year ago. For about 44 million people — roughly the population of the New York, Los Angeles and Chicago metropolitan areas combined — the rise in food prices means a descent into extreme poverty and hunger, according to the World Bank. The surge in food prices has many causes. Rising population. Speculators. Soaring oil prices. Trade policies. And, ironically, improved standards of living in emerging nations. By itself, the soaring cost of food didn’t cause the political unrest in the Middle East and elsewhere. Those tensions have been building for a long time. But higher food prices amplify those tensions. “It exposes the underlying inequalities and issues related to the standard of living that boil beneath the surface,” says Tony Crescenzi, portfolio manager at Pimco. What goes up You’re paying about 6.8% more for that steak than you did a year ago, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Fruits and veggies are up about 4.3%. In the U.S., the effect of higher food prices has been modest. U.S. consumers spend about 9% of their income on food, and another 3% for dining out. And raw materials prices are just one facet of many factoring into the cost of our food. The farm value of food — what goes to the farmer — is about 19% of the cost in the U.S., according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The rest goes to labor, packaging, transportation, energy and corporate profits. In many emerging markets, however, 50% or more of a family budget goes toward food — not because food is so expensive, but because income is so low. Kick up the price of wheat or rice or corn, and you’re spelling the difference between having two meals a day or one. “For many people who spend two-thirds or three-quarters of their income on food, even small price increases disrupt normal routine,” says Hassan Zaman, lead economist for the World Bank in poverty reduction and equity. “They start sacrificing non-food items, such as clothing, and then start eating less.”

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http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/industries/food/2011-03-17-food-costs-world-hunger.htm


Answers to: Mexico’s Economy Growing/Immigration Rates Declining

[ ]

[ ] Their evidence is based on empty hype – Mexico’s growth has plateaued thanks to declining trade with the US.

Garcia, editor of Mexico’s top financial publication, Sentido Comun & former Bloomberg News bureau chief in Mexico, 2013(Eduardo, “Mexico Economy: things get uglier still,” Financial Times, Jun 11, Online: http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/06/11/mexico-economy-and-things-get-uglier-still/?#axzz2aAErkIZa)

Those hoping that April industrial production data out on Tuesday would provide some measure of comfort on the direction of Mexico’s economy would be sorely disappointed. Industrial output in Latin America’s second largest economy fell 1.7 per cent compared to March in seasonally adjusted terms. The drop was the biggest monthly decline so far this year and the worst since December 2012 when it fell 2 per cent. Year-on-year, industrial production rose 3.3 per cent compared to April 2012, far below analysts’ expectations of a 5.3 per cent increase. Behind the headline figures, manufacturing, which provides the bulk of Mexico’s non-oil exports, fell 1.2 per cent in April compared to March on a seasonally adjusted basis. It’s the first drop of the year and the biggest decline since 2012. The manufacturing number, combined with the 3.1 per cent monthly drop in construction activities, were so disappointing that analysts said they would immediately go back to their economic models to recalculate this year’s growth rate – just less than two months after they lowered their GDP forecasts for the year. “Due to [the industrial production numbers], we will have to review our GDP growth forecast for the second quarter and the whole year”, said Eduardo González, an economist at Banamex, in a report. The last growth estimate from Banamex’s bi-weekly survey of 22 economists, which was released a week ago, was that Mexico would end up growing 2.96 per cent this year, a whole percentage point below last year’s performance of 3.9 per cent. Most economists attribute Mexico’s decelerating growth to weaknesses seen in the global economy, which have made it harder for Mexican companies to export abroad, hurting Mexico’s industrial production output.

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http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/06/11/mexico-economy-and-things-get-uglier-still/?#axzz2aAErkIZa

http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/06/11/mexico-economy-and-things-get-uglier-still/?#axzz2aAErkIZa


Answers to: Plan Wouldn’t Stop All Migration

[ ]

[ ] Mexican poverty is a major incentive for unauthorized immigration to the US. Increasing growth would drastically reduce immigration.

Wainer, immigration policy analyst for Bread for the World Institute, 11(Andrew, Development and Migration In Rural Mexico, Bread For The World Institute, Briefing Paper, Number 11, http://www.bread.org/institute/papers/briefing-paper-11.pdf)

U.S. spending on immigration enforcement increased from $1 billion to $15 billion between 1990 and 2009. During thistime the U.S. unauthorized immigrant population increased from 3 million to almost 12 million. 4 Experts recognize that given the pull of higher wages in the United States, it would take unrealistic amounts of personnel and funding– not to mention the use of lethal force–to stop unauthorized immigration through Mexico. The enforcement-only approach to migration is ineffective because it ignores some of the principal causes of unauthorized migration to the United States: poverty and inequality in Latin America, particularly in Mexico. 6 Although every migrant has his or her own story, most of those stories include the inability to find work or earn enough money in their homeland. In a 2010 case study of an immigrant-sending community in Mexico, 61 percent of male migrants reported that economic opportunities–higher wages and more jobs–were the primary motivating factor for migration to the United States. 7 As the 2009 United Nations Human Development Report stated, migration “largely reflects people’s need to improve their livelihoods.” 8 In order to address immigration pressures directly, the United States must consider a more balanced development agenda toward Mexico and other migrant-sending countries in Latin America. This includes elevating the importance of poverty reduction and job-creation projects targeted to migrant-sending communities—particularly in rural Mexico, where poverty and migration are concentrated. Building sustainable livelihoods in migrant-sending communities not only has the potential to reduce a major cause of immigration to the United States but could also contribute to the fight against violence and lawlessness in Mexico. While the reasons for the violence are complex, poverty and a lack of economic opportunity for Mexican youth certainly facilitate involvement in illicit activity along with out-migration. 10

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Answers to: Farms Will Adapt to Labor Shortages

[ ]

[ ] A decline in immigration would deprive the agriculture industry of millions of workers – that would gut the US economy and grind farms to a halt.

Somers, Attorney at Law --- Mark E. Godbey & Associates, 2008(Blake P., Illegal Immigrants: The Backbone of Our Nation’s Economy, 9-12-08, http://www.godbeylaw.com/illegal-immigrants-the-backbone-of-our-nations-economy/)

A recently published article in MSN Money reviewed “illegal” labor in the United States and its effect on our nations economy. The article found that nearly 8 million workers are employed illegally in the United States. This makes up nearly 5% of our nations entire workforce. The article further reported that most of these workers are employed in difficult and low-wage jobs, for which the traditional United States labor force seems to exhibit little demand. The results posed an important question: what if the government successfully deported all the “illegals,” and all that labor suddenly disappeared? In a word: catastrophe. The article concluded that crops “would rot in the fields” and agriculture “would come to a screeching halt.” Our service industries would be immediately overburdened. Not only would the cost of goods rise, but profits would decline, as the billions of dollars spent annually in the United States by “illegals” would immediately disappear. Ultimately, the results would drastically change the economic landscape of the United States; the loss of labor could result in over $650 billion dollars of lost output – almost a 5% reduction in our gross domestic product.

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Answers to: Agriculture Stable without Immigrant Labor

[ ]

[ ] There aren’t enough workers to fill employment openings in the agricultural sector – more immigrants are required for stability.

The Agricultural Coalition for Immigration Reform, 2007(THE AGRICULTURE COALITION FOR IMMIGRATION REFORM, December, Online)

Dear Member of Congress: The Agriculture Coalition for Immigration Reform (ACIR) is deeply concerned with pending immigration enforcement legislation known as the ‘Secure America Through Verification and Enforcement Act of 2007' or ‘SAVE Act’ (H.R.4088 and S.2368). While these bills seek to address the worthy goal of stricter immigration law enforcement, they fail to take a comprehensive approach to solving the immigration problem. History shows that a one dimensional approach to the nation’s immigration problem is doomed to fail. Enforcement alone, without providing a viable means to obtain a legal workforce to sustain economic growth is a formula for disaster. Agriculture best illustrates this point. Agricultural industries that need considerable labor in order to function include the fruit and vegetable, dairy and livestock, nursery, greenhouse, and Christmas tree sectors. Localized labor shortages have resulted in actual crop loss in various parts of the country. More broadly, producers are making decisions to scale back production, limit expansion, and leave many critical tasks unfulfilled. Continued labor shortages could force more producers to shift production out of the U.S., thus stressing already taxed food and import safety systems. Farm lenders are becoming increasingly concerned about the stability of affected industries. This problem is aggravated by the nearly universal acknowledgement that the current H-2A agricultural guest worker program does not work. Based on government statistics and other evidence, roughly 80 percent of the farm labor force in the United States is foreign born, and a significant majority of that labor force is believed to be improperly authorized. The bills’ imposition of mandatory electronic employment eligibility verification will screen out the farm labor force without providing access to legal workers. Careful study of farm labor force demographics and trends indicates that there is not a replacement domestic workforce available to fill these jobs. This feature alone will result in chaos unless combined with labor-stabilizing reforms. Continued failure by Congress to act to address this situation in a comprehensive fashion is placing in jeopardy U.S. food security and global competitiveness. Furthermore, congressional inaction threatens the livelihoods of millions of Americans whose jobs exist because laborintensive agricultural production is occurring in America. If production is forced to move, most of the upstream and downstream jobs will disappear as well. The Coalition cannot defend of the broken status quo. We support well-managed borders and a rational legal system. We have worked for years to develop popular bipartisan legislation that would stabilize the existing experienced farm workforce and provide an orderly transition to wider reliance on a legal agricultural worker program that provides a fair balance of employer and employee rights and protections. We respectfully urge you to oppose S.2368, H.R.4088, or any other bills that would impose employment-based immigration enforcement in isolation from equally important reforms that would provide for a stable and legal farm labor force.

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Answers to: US Farms Exploit Immigrants

[ ]

[ ] Immigrant laborers aren’t exclusively exploited – they have the potential for upward mobility and advancement – recent employment trends prove the hard work pays off.

Ramirez and Hondagneu-Sotelo, professors of Sociology at the University of Southern California, 2009(Hernan and Pierrette, “Mexican Immigrant Gardeners: Entrepreneurs or Exploited Workers?,” Social Problems 56:1, Online: http://csii.usc.edu/documents/Ramirez-HSotelo.pdf)

Gardeners still walk a tightrope, acting simultaneously as empowered entrepreneurs and as subjugated service workers. It’s not only the waged employees, but also the route owners who experience the corporeal punishment of hard, physical work and the social subordina- tion of service work. Most of them are out there driving the trucks and sweating and working alongside their paid ayudantes. They may put up with habitually late paying clients, stagnant fees, or dangerous tasks. When doing the extras, they are positioned as empowered entrepreneurs, selling products and services at prices they command. Fordist manufacturing regimes are over, and while labor migrants are fueling downgraded manufacturing, agribusiness, and service operations of formal organizations, we see a new pattern emerging. The late twentieth, and early twenty-first century, are characterized by affluent households increasingly employing immigrant service workers. While there is a vast literature on migrant domestic workers in Asia, the United States, Canada, and Europe, the economic sociology of immigration has not yet grappled with this more general development, the incorporation of immigrant men’s labor into the households of post-industrial societies (an exception is Kilkey and Perrons 2008). Social capital, network hiring, and informal ap- prenticeships still prevail, but what requires further recognition and exploration is this new recombinant, hybrid form of business and service whereby some immigrant men get the con- tracts and work alongside their paid male co-ethnic employees to get the household jobs done. Ethnic entrepreneur products and services are moving out of Chinatown and into affluent households. Gardening is a prime example, but elsewhere we may see the development of new forms of immigrant economic incorporation that similarly combine elements of business and service and of masculinized dirty work (snow removal, home remodeling, appliance in- stallation and repair, and post-hurricane reconstruction come to mind). In residential mainte- nance gardening, entrepreneurship and subjugation coexist under conditions of informality. Mobility is the potential payoff, but to be in business, Mexican immigrant gardeners must work hard to serve.

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http://csii.usc.edu/documents/Ramirez-HSotelo.pdf


Answers to: Immigrants Hurt the US Economy

[ ]

[ ] Immigration is vital to the economy – they put in more work than they get back in welfare.

Johnson, J.D., Boston College Law School, 2007 (Richard A, Winter 2007, “NOTE: Twenty Years Of The IRCA: The Urgent Need For An Updated Legislative Response to the Current Undocumented Immigrant Situation in the United States,” Georgetown Immigration Law Journal, 21 Geo. Immigr. L.J. 239, p. lexis)

In the 1970s and 1980s, the majority of Americans believed undocumented [*255] immigrants placed an immense stress on the U.S. economy. n98 Recent research, however, indicates that this supposition is incorrect, given the current economic and demographic landscape of America. n99 To the contrary, statistics demonstrate that undocumented workers' role in producing high economic output, generating considerable tax revenues, and filling essential work positions has become vital to the nation's economy. n100 Analyzing the statute under this new reality reveals that the IRCA objective to decrease the number of undocumented immigrants by banning them from the American workplace has become outdated anti-immigration policy. Statistics show that the undocumented population's contribution to the American economy is astounding. For example, the undocumented immigrant population from Mexico alone adds between $ 154 billion to $ 220 billion to the Gross Domestic Product of the United States and $ 77 billion to the Gross State Product of California. n102 Without the output of goods and services in the United States attributed to the immigrant community as a whole, the nation's economy would decrease by an estimated $ 1 trillion. n103 Though there is speculation that the losses the country absorbs due to undocumented immigrants' use of public assistance programs nullify these contributions, economists argue that this is simply untrue. n104 Instead, the excess of tax revenue undocumented immigrants generate over the cost of public services they use has provided $ 27 billion to local and state economies. n105 Undocumented immigrants also provide tremendous benefits to the country in terms of consumer spending. n106 In the Chicago area alone, their consumption of goods and services has produced $ 5.45 billion annually to the Gross Regional Product while creating more than 31,000 jobs.

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Answers to: Immigrants Hurt the US Economy – Wages

[ ]

[ ] A consensus of economists proves immigration has a positive effect on wages.

Shierholz, Economist, Economic Policy Institute, 2010(Heidi, “The Immigration Economy,” Council on Foreign Relations, March 8, Online: http://www.cfr.org/publication/21605/immigration_economy.html?breadcrumb=%2Fpublication%2Fpublication_list%3Ftype%3Dcouncil_policy_initiative)

Outside of the heated political debate over immigration, there is actually broad agreement among economists that immigration has a small but positive impact on the wages of native-born workers overall. Although new immigrant workers add to the labor supply, they also consume goods and services. This spending creates more jobs, so competition for employment is not a zero-sum game between immigrants and workers already in the United States. The real debate among researchers is whether a large influx of a specific type of immigrant worker (say, workers with a particular level of education or training) has the potential to have a negative impact on the wages of similar U.S.-born workers. Some research argues that immigrant competition is quite costly to certain groups of U.S.-born workers, while other research finds that native workers--even those who have levels of education and experience similar to new immigrants--may actually reap modest benefits from immigration. My own work incorporates recent advancements in the research methodology which account for, among other things, the fact that foreign-born workers already in the U.S.--whose skills (for example, language) more closely mirror those of new immigrants--are more likely than U.S.-born workers to compete directly for jobs with new immigrants. This work finds that immigration has slightly boosted relative weekly wages for native-born workers at all levels of education, including those with less than a high school education. Instead, any negative effects of new immigration are largely felt by those workers who are the most substitutable for new immigrants--earlier immigrants. And for these workers, the negative effects of immigration on wages are not trivial. Americans are right to worry about the declining quality of jobs over the last few decades, but for native workers, immigration has had very little to do with it. Other factors--like declining unionization, the erosion of the real value of the minimum wage, and unbalanced foreign trade--are the real culprits behind broad-based erosion of wages and job quality. Nevertheless, immigration could have a much more beneficial impact on the U.S. economy--and its impact on foreign-born workers already here could be mitigated--with a comprehensive overhaul. We have little to fear, and much to gain, from developing a fairer, more rational immigration system.

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http://www.cfr.org/publication/21605/immigration_economy.html?breadcrumb=%2Fpublication%2Fpublication_list%3Ftype%3Dcouncil_policy_initiative

http://www.cfr.org/publication/21605/immigration_economy.html?breadcrumb=%2Fpublication%2Fpublication_list%3Ftype%3Dcouncil_policy_initiative


Answers to: Immigrants Hurt US Economy – Welfare

[ ]

[ ] Illegal immigrants don’t benefit from key social welfare programs, but they support them – they are the only reason social security is still afloat today.

Griswold, director of Trade Policy Studies at the CATO Institute, 2012(Daniel, “Immigration and the Welfare State,” CATO Journal, 32:1, Winter, Online: http://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/serials/files/cato-journal/2012/1/cj32n1-11.pdf)

Immigration has a modestly positive effect on federal old-age entitlement programs. Immigrants tend to arrive at the beginning of their working years, so they pay into the system immediately but do not collect benefits for decades into the future, if at all. A surprisingly large share of illegal immigrants pays Social Security taxes but are ineligible to ever collect benefits. According to the 2011 Social Security Trustees report, an increase in net immigration by 300,000 per year extends the solvency of the system by about one additional year. An increase in immigration of that magnitude, which would represent about a 25 percent increase in current net immigration, would lower the cost of funding the system by 0.25 percent of the nation’s taxable payroll, from 16.25 percent to 16.00 percent (SSA 2011). By slowing the long-term decline in the ratio of workers to retirees, immigration helps to maintain the viability of the federal government’s main retirement program. Ironically, illegal immigration may be even more of a net plus to the Social Security system than legal immigration. Because of their unauthorized status, illegal immigrants are ineligible to receive benefits, no matter how many years they work inside the United States. And despite the popular perception that they do not pay taxes, the Social Security Administration itself estimates that about three-quarters of unauthorized immigrants in the work force actually pay into the system albeit through false accounts (Porter 2005). The Social Security system routinely collects billions of dollars a year in payroll taxes from accounts that it cannot match with an eligible recipient. Such collections are accounted to the “Earnings Suspense File,” which keeps a running tab of payroll taxes collected which cannot be matched to the earnings record of any individual worker. About 4 percent of all Social Security accounts end up assigned to the ESF (LaCanfora 2011: 10), which roughly matches the illegal immigrant share of the U.S. labor force. According to Stephen C. Goss, the chief actuary of the Social Security Administration, the ESF has accumulated a total of $120 billion to $240 billion in collections from unauthorized workers who will probably never reclaim a dime of those taxes in benefits (SchumacherMatos 2010).

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http://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/serials/files/cato-journal/2012/1/cj32n1-11.pdf


Answers to: Immigrants Hurt US Economy – Remittances

[ ]

[ ] The money Mexican immigrants send home is essential to solve Mexican poverty – turns case.

Kitroeff, editorial assistant at New York Times, 2013(Natalie, “Immigrants Pay Lower Fees to Send Money Home, Helping to Ease Poverty,” NYT, April 27, Online: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/28/us/politics/immigrants-find-it-cheaper-to-send-money-home.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0)

The benefits are far-reaching, development experts say, providing a powerful means to chip away at poverty in other countries and expanding the hard-won earnings of immigrants in the United States. The lower costs may be one reason that remittances have held steady even as fewer immigrants from Mexico have come to the United States and the recession has cut into incomes. Overall remittances to Mexico declined during the global recession but picked up again after 2009. Some experts say more money could flow to countries like Mexico if Congress approves an immigration overhaul granting a path to citizenship to millions of illegal immigrants, because studies have shown that legalization can lead to increased wages. Others argue that with legalization, many immigrants will invest more heavily in the United States, sending less of their income back to relatives. The total remittance transfers sent across the globe from the United States in recent years are almost $50 billion annually, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or roughly the equivalent of the government’s foreign aid budget. (Estimates by the World Bank suggest that the figure is significantly higher, close to $100 billion per year, according to Dilip Ratha, an economist who leads the World Bank’s remittances program.) “Remittances may well be the best single way to foment development,” said Nancy Birdsall, the president of the Center for Global Development, a nonprofit research group in Washington. “It turns out that even a modest reduction in the cost of making remittance transfers adds up to a substantial amount compared to official aid.” Estefana Bautista, who left two children in her native Mexico when she immigrated to Texas in 2005, said she pays $5 less to send them money now than when she first arrived, which she called “a big help.” “I send those 5 dollars to Mexico,” Ms. Bautista said. “My kids know that they’re getting a little more money every two weeks.” Growing competition among transfer companies has been the driving force behind the steady decline in costs. A decade ago, Western Union and Money Gram dominated the market. Now they contend with dozens of international competitors like Xoom and Ria. Western Union’s share of the global remittance market has dropped to about 15 percent from around 75 percent in the late 1990s, while Money Gram’s market share has declined to 5 percent from 22 percent in that time, according to the companies and government figures. “What we’re really seeing is competition not just based on price, but also on service quality,” said W. Alexander Holmes, the chief financial officer of MoneyGram. “It’s a very interesting time in the market.” Worldwide, costs for sending remittances to any country have come down from around 15 percent per $300 transaction in the late 1990s to below 10 percent today, Mr. Ratha said. For money sent to Mexico, costs have declined from 9.5 percent per $300 to just over 2 percent today.

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http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/28/us/politics/immigrants-find-it-cheaper-to-send-money-home.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/28/us/politics/immigrants-find-it-cheaper-to-send-money-home.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

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