Mexico 2017 OECD Economic Survey reforms are paying off
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Transcript of Mexico 2017 OECD Economic Survey reforms are paying off
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OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF MEXICO 2017
www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-mexico.htm
Reforms are paying off
10 January 2017, Ciudad Mexico
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Productivity growth is picking up
Note: Shaded areas show projections for 2016 and 2017.Source: OECD Economic Outlook 100 database.
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Reforms affected many states and sectors but others lag behind
Examples of frontier sectors are auto, telecommunications, quarrying, warehousing services.
Fastest-growing states are Zacatecas, Querétaro, Aguascalientes, Guanajuato.
Source: OECD calculations using data from INEGI.
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Mexico is a top reformer
Note: Emerging OECD countries include Chile, Estonia, Hungary, Mexico, Poland and Turkey. Southern Europe countries are Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain.Source: OECD, Going for Growth 2015.
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Reforms led to a decline in telecom and electricity prices
Note: Peer OECD countries include Estonia, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, and Turkey. Source: OECD Calculations – data from International Energy Agency and OECD System of National Accounts.
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Oil and gas prices have risen recently
Source: OECD Calculations using Bloomberg and Servicio Geológico Mexicano (SINEM)..
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The energy reform attracts foreign investment
(USD billions) 1st auction 2nd auction 3rd
auction4th
auction
Overall investment committed 2.70 3.10 1.10 34.4
Investment in the short-term 0.15 0.60 0.62 0.34
Auctions (round 1) outcomes for exploration and extraction of hydrocarbons
Source: Secretario de Energía (SENER).
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More infrastructures are needed
Source: OECD calculations with national agencies.
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Revenues rose sharply after the fiscal reforms
Note: IEPS represents the special tax on products and services. Source: Ministry of Finance (SCHP)
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The oil dependence has declined
Source: OECD calculations using data from the Ministry of Finance (SHCP)
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Credit increased after the financial reform
Source: Banco de México.
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The economy is more resilient
Note: Shading shows projections. Source: OECD Economic Outlook 100.
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Reforms will boost growth
Source: OECD Economic Survey of Mexico 2015.
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WHAT IS LEFT TO DO
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Implementation remains key(*non-Pacto reforms)
Reforms with implementation well
advancedReforms with gaps in
implementationReforms that have
not advanced enough
Tax policy
Financial sector liberalisation
Telecom deregulation
Election system
Competition policy and regulatory
Energy market openness
Labour market and tackling informality
Education quality
Anti-corruption and transparency
Judicial process reform
Innovation system*
Fiscal federalism*
Agricultural transformation*
Unemployment insurance, pensions and social benefits
Health system reform*
Urban planning*
Source: OECD Compilation.
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Additional reforms will further boost growth
Source: OECD Economic Survey of Mexico 2015.
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Informality did not decrease by much
Note: Rates are calculated against the total employed population including agriculture.Source: INEGI, Encuesta Nacional de Ocupación y Empleo (ENOE).
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Agricultural transformation has not yet happened
Note: Countries presented are OECD peer countries. Catching-up periods have been identified as period of sharp decrease in the GDP per capita gap with the highest tier of OECD members. The selected countries/periods are as follows: CHL (2007-13), GRC (2001-09), HUN (2000-06), KOR (2007-15), POL (2006-12), SVK (2000-08), SVN (2000-08), and TUR (2001-11). Productivity is defined as the average value added per employee within the agricultural sector, in USD PPP 2011. Source: OECD calculations using data from the Economic Outlook 100 and the World Bank.
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Female labour participation is rising, but the gender gap remains large
Source: OECD Calculations using data from INEGI.
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Paid leave entitlements are low and not gender equitable
Source: OECD Family database.
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Gender gaps in financial inclusion are large
Source: Encuesta Nacional de Inclusión Financiera (ENIF) 2015, (CNBV, 2015).
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Poverty is stagnant but social conditions are improving
Note: Panel A: Food poverty: insufficient income to purchase the basic food basket. Patrimony poverty: insufficient disposable income to acquire the food basket and make the necessary expenditures on health, education, clothing, housing and transportation. Population with income below the minimum welfare line: people who cannot acquire the value of the food basket with their current income. Population with income below the well-being line: people who cannot acquire the value of the sum of a food basket plus a basket of goods and services with their current income. Source: OECD Income Distribution Database, CONEVAL, INEGI.
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Taxes and transfers have a low impact
Note: Data from the latest available year. Source: OECD Income Distribution database.
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High perceived corruption hampers growth
Source: Transparency International (2015).
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Mexican firms are less socially responsible than other North and South American firms
Note: Average environmental (E), social (S) and governance (G) score. Source: ASSET4 Thomson Reuters data.
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Recommendations to transform agriculture and reduce informality
• Strengthen awareness of in-work subsidies for formal workers.
• Focus enforcement on large formal firms employing informal workers.
• Reform the legal framework of eijidos and tierras communales (areas of communal lands used for agriculture).
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Recommendations to improve female participation
• Expand public early childcare and pre-school coverage.
• Extend the length of paternity and maternity leaves.
• Better enforce the constitutional provision on gender discrimination, particularly in the workplace, boardrooms and credit markets.
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Recommendations to tackle poverty
• Simplify the administrative procedures for accessing cash transfers.
• Increase the role of social workers in reaching out to marginalised families.
• Strengthen social expenditure on programmes to eradicate extreme poverty, such as Prospera.
• Raise and broaden the minimum pension to expand the old-age safety net.
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Recommendations to fight corruption and crime
• Build capacity of the sub-national level entities involved in the new anti-corruption system.
• Encourage more states to establish integrated state-wide police forces.
• Extend oral trials to all civil and commercial cases.
• Boost training, resources and technology for the judiciary.
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