MEXICO 2012
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Transcript of MEXICO 2012
The Presidential Race
MEXICO 2012
Calderon’s Drug Cartel War strategy - violence
Social unrest – pacific protestsImmigration and Border Issues with U.S.PAN governing for 12 years – political
weakeningPRI’s 2009 comeback – same old PRI?PRD’s eternal fights – possible fractureImportant Dates
Pre-campaigns December 18 – February 16, 2012
Campaign: March 30 – July 27, 2012 Election Day: July 1st, 2012
Context
PAN (internal election) Josefina Vazquez Mota (FC Plan B)Ernesto Cordero (FC Plan A)Santiago Creel (Fox, right groups)
PRI (open election) (possible alliance PVEM+PANAL)Enrique Pena Nieto (40% ahead of any rival)Manlio Fabio Beltrones (“Mano dura”)
PRD (still undecided) (possible alliance PT+MC)Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (Structure, hard core)Marcelo Ebrard (Social-Democrat)
The Actors: Pre-candidates
Carlos Salinas de Gortari – intellectual operatorAtlacomulco Group - $ interests, EPN supportersElba Esther Gordillo – syndicalist, education leader
Negotiating 32 Congressmen “Power is power…” Carlos Slim – he’ll bet on allAMLO and the poor onesCivil Society, NGO’sTV Companies - $ interests, PVEM legislatorsBusinessmen in GeneralIFE – Federal Electoral Institute“Informal politics” – out of the system
The other actors: $, social, political
Enrique Pena Nieto virtual winner + PVEM + PANAL
Possible forces alliances against him – “Guerra sucia”Wife suicide, Paulette’s case, etc. CISEN.
No big changesMid term policies for force balances in DCWLobbying for major Reforms (energy, political,
fiscal, justice) – Congress: divided vs majority Coalition Government?Foreign Policy - a more active and aggressive
oneEconomic stability
Possible Scenarios & Conclusions
MEXICO 2012
The Presidential Race
MEXICO 2012