Mexican Mining Industry MACS - gob.mx · 2016-05-11 · INVESTMENTIN MEXICAN MINING SECTOR Source:...

MEXICANMINING INDUSTRYRECENT DEVELOPMENT

Toronto,CanadaMarch ,2016

1. Mexican Mining Industry 2015

2. Mineral Market Outlook

3. Mexican Mining Advantages

4. Mexican Mining Competitiveness

2

MEXICAN MINING-METALLURGICAL PRODUCTION

Source:INEGI.

8,261 8,3766,976

11,412

17,178 17,832

15,62814,738

13,048

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Million dollars

3

INVESTMENT IN MEXICAN MINING SECTOR

Source:CAMIMEX.

2,156

3,656

2,858

3,316

5,612

8,043

6,576

4,948

5,203

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Million dollars

4

339.5

409.9

-

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

450.0

2014 2015*

ExpansionProjects

INVESTMENT IN MEXICAN MINING SECTOR

1,360.41,496.0

-

250.0

500.0

750.0

1,000.0

1,250.0

1,500.0

2014 2015*

NewProjects

622.7635.7

500.0

520.0

540.0

560.0

580.0

600.0

620.0

640.0

660.0

2014 2015*

MachineryandEquipment856.40

633.40

-

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

900.00

2014 2015*

Exploration

Source:CAMIMEX.

Million dollars

5

692757

803853 870 902 927

262 286 288 285 267 276 267

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Projects Companies

FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN MEXICAN MINING

Source:DGDM,SE.

6

1.0

0.1

1.1

0.7

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

2012 2013 2014 2015

Mexico(USbilliondollars)

Mexico30%

LatinAmerica70%

MexicoandLatinAmericanCountries

EquityCapitalRaised2015TSX-TSXV

127

5735 33 30 27 14 9 5 4 3 2 2 2

020406080100120140160

Number ofTSX/TSXVMining Companies by Latin AmericanCountry

Source:TSX.

7





8

5.4

4.23.4 3.3 3.4 3.1

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

WorldGDP(%change)

12.5

6.7

2.9 3.3 3.3 3.2

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

WorldTradeVolume(%change)

7.5

6.3

5.2 5.04.6

4.0

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EmergingMarketsGDP(%change)

152.1

191.9 185.7 182.9171.5

112.3

-

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Commodity PriceIndex2005=100includesboth FuelandNon-FuelPriceIndices

Source:IMF.

WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

9

-

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total CrudeOIl

Coal Cereals

AgriculturalRawMaterials Metals

-26.1

-34.7

-37.8

-12.9

-2.1

-37.0-40.0

-35.0

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0Total

CrudeOil Coal Cereals

Agr.RawMat. Metals

Commodity PriceIndex 2005=100 Change 2015/2010(%)

Source:IMF.

COMMODITIES PRICES 2010-2015

10

METAL PRICES

Source:WorldBank.

11

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

BaseMetals PreciousMetals

RealAnnual Indices 1970-2015(2010=100)

-

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1,000.0

1,200.0

1,400.0

1,600.0

1,800.0

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

GOLD SILVER

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

COPPER

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

ZINC

Annual RealPrices(2010USdollars)

Source:WorldBank.

dl/oz dl/oz

dl/t dl/t

12

8.4 8.39.1

10.0 10.1

11.3

12.7

14.2

9.69.2

10.6

9.5

7.7 7.77.3

6.8

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

BaseMetalsPriceIndice PreciousMetalsPriceIndice GDPChina(%Change)

GDP CHINA VS METAL PRICE INDICES

Source:WorldBank.Realpriceindices2010=100.

13

-

2000.0

4000.0

6000.0

8000.0

10000.0

12000.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Copper

Europe China USA

-500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Lead

Europe China USA

-100.0200.0300.0400.0500.0600.0700.0800.0900.0

1,000.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Nickel

EUROPA CHINA USA

-

1,000.0

2,000.0

3,000.0

4,000.0

5,000.0

6,000.0

7,000.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Zinc

EUROPA CHINA USA

CONSUMPTION OF SELECTED METAL BY COUNTRY

Source:WorldBureau ofMetalStatistics.

th.m.t. th.m.t.

th.m.t. th.m.t.

14

-8.4-17.7 -19.8

-14.8 -10.6

-42.4

Gold Silver Copper Lead Zinc Ironore

Source:MetalWeeks.

METAL PRICES

15

% Change Price FORECASTPRODUCT 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015/2014 March 3 2016

GOLD (London Final, Dlls./oz.) 1,568.6 1,668.8 1,411.0 1,266.0 1,160.1 -8.4 1,250.2 1,121.0SILVER (London Fix, US, Dlls./oz.) 35.11 31.15 23.83 19.08 15.70 -17.7 14.97 14.70LEAD (LME Settle, Ctvs Dlls./lb.) 108.9 93.5 97.7 95.1 81.0 -14.8 83.3 77.60COPPER (LME Settle, Ctvs Dlls./lb.) 400.1 360.6 333.1 311.2 249.6 -19.8 220.1 208.60ZINC (LME Settle, Ctvs Dlls./lb.) 99.5 88.4 87.1 98.1 87.7 -10.6 83.3 73.40IRON ORE (World Bank, Dlls./Ton.) 167.8 128.5 135.4 96.9 55.8 -42.4 51.7 35.9Source: Metals Week, CPM, Wolrd Bank.

INTERNATIONAL PRICES OF SELECTED METALS2011-2016

%change 2015/2014

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

4/9/2010

7/9/2010

10/9/2010

1/9/2011

4/9/2011

7/9/2011

10/9/2011

1/9/2012

4/9/2012

7/9/2012

10/9/2012

1/9/2013

4/9/2013

7/9/2013

10/9/2013

1/9/2014

4/9/2014

7/9/2014

10/9/2014

1/9/2015

4/9/2015

7/9/2015

10/9/2015

1/9/2016

GOLDCORP

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

1/12/2010

4/12/2010

7/12/2010

10/12/2010

1/12/2011

4/12/2011

7/12/2011

10/12/2011

1/12/2012

4/12/2012

7/12/2012

10/12/2012

1/12/2013

4/12/2013

7/12/2013

10/12/2013

1/12/2014

4/12/2014

7/12/2014

10/12/2014

1/12/2015

4/12/2015

7/12/2015

10/12/2015

1/12/2016

BARRICKGOLD

MININGCOMPANIES- PRICEQUOTES2010-2016

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7/22

/201

0

10/22/20

10

1/22

/201

14/22

/201

17/22

/201

1

10/22/20

11

1/22

/201

24/22

/201

27/22

/201

2

10/22/20

12

1/22

/201

34/22

/201

37/22

/201

3

10/22/20

13

1/22

/201

44/22

/201

47/22

/201

4

10/22/20

14

1/22

/201

54/22

/201

57/22

/201

5

10/22/20

15

1/22

/201

6BHPBILLITON

Source:TSXandLSE.

-500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

1/4/20

10

4/4/20

10

7/4/20

10

10/4/201

0

1/4/20

11

4/4/20

11

7/4/20

11

10/4/201

1

1/4/20

12

4/4/20

12

7/4/20

12

10/4/201

2

1/4/20

13

4/4/20

13

7/4/20

13

10/4/201

3

1/4/20

14

4/4/20

14

7/4/20

14

10/4/201

4

1/4/20

15

4/4/20

15

7/4/20

15

10/4/201

5

1/4/20

16

RIOTINTOplc

CAD CAD

GBp GBp

16

1,068.3

1,177.9

950.0

1,000.0

1,050.0

1,100.0

1,150.0

1,200.0

1,250.0

1,300.0

MonthlyPrices2015-2016*(dl/oz) 88.9

31.7

2.9

91.8

29.0

3.2-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

MineProduction SecondarySupply Other

2015 2016

13

83.7

26.913.1

84.6

26.3

0

20

40

60

80

100

Industrialdemand Jewelry Stockdemand

2015 2016

GOLDSupply 2015-2016*(Million ounces)

Demand 2015-2016*(Million ounces)

Electronics8%

Medical1%

Other1%

Jewelry68%

Stockdemand22%

Source:CPMGroup.*Estimateddatafor2016.

17

14.1

14.9

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

17.0

18.0

MonthlyPrices2015-2016*(dl/oz) 778.4

205.0

770.2

203.0

-100.0200.0300.0400.0500.0600.0700.0800.0900.0

MineProduction SecondarySupply

2015 2016

223.8

297.4354.1

224.7

303.2348.2

050100150200250300350400

Electronic Jewelry Other

2015 2016

SILVERSupply 2015-2016*(Million ounces)

Demand 2015-2016*(Million ounces)

108.1

97.1

2015

2016

NetSurplus2015-2016*(Million ounces)

Source:CPMGroup.Estimateddatafor2016.

18

COPPER

210.0205.9

160.0

180.0

200.0

220.0

240.0

260.0

280.0

300.0

MonthlyPrices2015-2016*(dl/lb)

22,57223,392

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2015 2016

22,202

23,135

21,60021,80022,00022,20022,40022,60022,80023,00023,20023,400

2015 2016

Supply 2015-2016*(Thou.Metric Tonnes)

Demand 2015-2016*(Thou.Metric Tonnes)

370

257

2015

2016

Balance 2015-2016*(Thou.Metric Tonnes)


19

77.2

81.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0


10,852 11,048

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2015 2016

10,836 11,117

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2015 2016



17

-70

-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40

2015

2016


LEAD


20

69.0

75.3

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0


14,008 14,036

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2015 2016

13,882 14,340

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2015 2016



126

-304

-400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200

2015

2016


ZINC


21





22

México: Macroeconmic Indicators

Source:IMF.

1.3

2.32.5

2.8

3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3

-0.5

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

GDP2013-2020(%)

AdvancedEconomies LatinAmerica Mexico

4.0 4.1

2.63.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Inflation2013-2020(%)

Advancedeconomies LatinAmerica Mexico

23

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

130.0

140.0

150.0

160.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

ExchangeRate 2015(January=100)

Chile Mexico Brazil

China Colombia Russia

SouthAfrica

46.4

49.8

52.0

50.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

46.0

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Government Gross Debt 2013-2020(%GDP)

Mexico LatinAmerica

Source:IMF.

México: Macroeconmic Indicators

24

Mexican Mining Resources

Mexico’s ShareinWorld MineProduction

1°Silver

2°BismuthFluorite

3°CelestiteWollastonite

4°Cadmium

5°MolibdenumLead

6°Zinc

7°SaltDiatomite

8°BariteGraphiteGoldGypsum

10°Copper

Source:USGS.

25

Geological Potential

Source: SGMSource: SGM

The Mexican territory shows well defined metallogenetic belts of Cu, Au; Cu, Mo, Au; Au, Ag, Cu;Ag, Au, Pb, Zn; Zn, Ag, Pb; F, Sr; C; Fe, Ti; Cu, Zn, Pb, Ag, Au; Fe; Au, Ag.

Ti Fe

Metallogenetic belts

Source: Mexican Geological Survey.

MVS

C

Au,CuAg

Ag, Au, Pb, Zn

Cu, Mo, Au

Zn, Ag, Pb

Cu, Zn, Pb, Ag, Au

Massive Sulfides MVS

(Au, Ag, Zn, Cu, Pb)

Iron and titanium (Fe, Ti)

Coal (C)

Strontium (Sr)

Fluor (F)

Manganese (Mn)

Phosphates (P)

Au, Ag (Mesothermal)

Au, Cu, Pb, Ag, Zn (Porphyry)

26

Mexican Geological Survey

YEAR MAPS

SURFACEkm²

1995-2015 839 766,194

No SURFACEkm²

119 1´960,716

1:50,000, 1995-2015

1:250,000, 1995-2005

GEOLOGICALANDGEOCHEMICALMAPPING

Source:Mexican Geological Survey.

27

216267

378422 425

481541 546 581 593 601 610 620 646

696 725

915

1,275

1,504

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

CashCost – SelectedMines2015(dl/gold oz)

Cash Cost

Source:Quarter Reports ofMining Companies (January-September 2015).

28

165.6

121.2

100.0

110.0

120.0

130.0

140.0

150.0

160.0

170.0

180.0

AveragepricesofelectricityPesoskilowatt/hour

119.0

96.3

105.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0

125.0

2013/01

2013/04

2013/07

2013/10

2014/01

2014/04

2014/07

2014/10

2015/01

2015/04

2015/07

2015/10

2016/01

National ProducerPriceIndexMining

Competitive Costs

Source:INEGI.

29





30

Where toinvest inMining 2015.Behre Dolbear.

Rank Country

1 Canada

2 Australia

3 USA

4 Chile

5 Mexico

6 Peru

7 Namibia

8 Botswana

9 Colombia

10 Ghana

Source:Behre Dolbear, 2015.

MEXICANMINING,ACOMPETITIVEINDUSTRY

31

FRASER INSTITUTE: INVESTMENTATTRACTIVENESS INDEX

72.96

71.05

75.96

68.93

2012 2013 2014 2015

Score(maximum100)

25

31

24

37

2012

2013

2014

2015

Rank

Source:FraserInstitute, 2016.

79.81

69.26

68.93

62.75

61.45

45.36

44.56

39.39

Chile

Peru

Mexico

Colombia

Brasil

Ecuador

Bolivia

Uruguay

Latin America 2015

Mexico 2012-2015

32

FRASER INSTITUTE: POLICY PERCEPTION INDEX

73.7

71.5

72.9

71.1

2012 2013 2014 2015

Score(maximum100)

38

50

50

47

2012

2013

2014

2015

Rank


Mexico 2012-2015

83.5

71.1

66.8

66.3

56.6

53.8

43.4

36.4

Chile

Mexico

Peru

Uruguay

Brasil

Colombia

Ecuador

Bolivia

Latin America 2015

33

FRASER INSTITUTE: BEST PRACTICES MINERALPOTENTIAL INDEX

72.071.0

78.0

68.0

2012 2013 2014 2015

Score(maximum100)

18

22

13

34

2012

2013

2014

2015

Rank


Mexico 2012-2015

Latin America 2015

77.0

71.0

69.0

68.0

65.0

50.0

47.0

21.0

Chile

Peru

Colombia

Mexico

Brasil

Bolivia

Ecuador

Uruguay

34

LISTOFFACTORSTHATENCOURAGEORAFFECTINVESTMENT

Source: Fraser Institute Annual “Survey of Mining Companies 2015”.

Rank1-109

México Brazil Chile Colombia Peru Uruguay Ecuador Bolivia

Uncertaintyconcerningtheadministration,interpretation,andenforcementofexisting

regulations27 74 19 69 39 22 93 96

Environmental regulations 12 68 25 75 52 54 93 62

Regulatory duplicationandInconsistencies 30 75 12 69 54 68 82 81

Legal System 57 74 28 68 50 42 79 101

TaxationRegime 58 75 42 65 55 84 103 97

UncertaintyConcerningDisputedLandClaims 56 81 16 74 64 43 86 109

UncertaintyConcerning ProtectedAreas 44 86 16 77 59 89 82 97

QualityofInfrastructure 43 66 45 65 57 50 62 93SocioeconomicAgreements/Community

DevelopmentConditions 56 61 37 77 76 62 83 103

TradeBarriers 55 80 41 52 48 59 95 88

PoliticalStability 55 83 33 63 59 24 74 87

LaborRegulations 62 90 51 71 78 56 98 109

Geologicaldatabase 42 69 26 59 38 90 72 91

Security 95 84 46 102 86 65 75 88

AvailabilityofLabor 42 48 31 63 38 47 89 86

35

COMPARISONOFDIFFERENTTOPICS“ENCOURAGEINVESTMENT”(RANK)

19

22

27

39

69

74

93

96

ChileUruguayMéxico

PeruColombia

BrazilEcuadorBolivia

Uncertaintyconcerningtheadministration,interpretation,andenforcementofexistingregulations

Environmental regulationsGeologicalDatabase

Regulatory duplication andInconsistencies

1225

5254

6268

7593

MéxicoChilePeru

UruguayBoliviaBrazil

ColombiaEcuador


12

30

54

68

69

75

81

82

ChileMéxico

PeruUruguayColombia

BrazilBolivia

Ecuador

26

38

42

59

69

72

90

91

ChilePeru

MéxicoColombia

BrazilEcuadorUruguayBolivia

36

COMPARISONOFDIFFERENTTOPICS“ENCOURAGEINVESTMENT”

Taxation Regime Security

1643

5664

748186

109

ChileUruguayMéxico

PeruColombia

BrazilEcuadorBolivia

UncertaintyConcerningDisputedLandClaims QualityofInfrastructure


42

55

58

65

75

84

97

103

ChilePeru

MéxicoColombia

BrazilUruguayBolivia

Ecuador

46

65

75

84

86

88

95

102

ChileUruguayEcuador

BrazilPeru

BoliviaMéxico

Colombia

43

45

50

57

62

65

66

93

MéxicoChile

UruguayPeru

EcuadorColombia

BrazilBolivia

37

MININGALLOTMENTSWITHADVANCEDEXPLORATION

38

THANKS

Mexican Mining Industry MACS - gob.mx · 2016-05-11 · INVESTMENTIN MEXICAN MINING SECTOR Source:...

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