MEXICAN FOREIGN POLICY:TRENDS AND CONTINUITIES

Under a Dominant PartyNAFTA as DeparturePost-NAFTA: The Fox EraPost-NAFTA: The Calderón EraPost-NAFTA: The Peña Nieto EraAnd Now? Jockeying for Position

PRINCIPLES UNDER THE PRINonintervention

Enshrined in 1930sProtection of regime

Pacifism (e.g. peaceful resolution of disputes)Domestic role for militaryDiplomacy in Central America

NationalismAssertions of sovereigntyNationalization of oil 1938

Preoccupation with USAHistorical memoriesInsistence on autonomy (eg re Cuba)Emphasis on “principles” not interests

MEXICO AS REGIONAL LEADER

Credentials Stable regime under civilian rule Revolutionary legacy Economic growth (“Mexican miracle”) Relationship with USA Absence of clear rivals

Policies Protector of Cuba Role in Central America (eg joint declaration with

France) Treaty of Tlatelolco 1962

THE BILATERAL COMMISSION

Tension and conflict in U.S.-Mexican relationsBlue-ribbon commission formed by Ford

Foundation (1985-89)Co-chairs: William D. Rogers and Hugo

MargáinReleased book-length report in both countries

+ 5 volumes of scholarly papers (1989)Ambiguities on a bilateral FTAImpacts in Mexico > USA

Shaping terms of debate Focus on drugs and migration Analysis of public opinion Comparison with EU

NOTES ON PERSONNELUSA

Lawrence Eagleburger, Secretary of State Henry Cisnero, Mayor of San Antonio Nancy Landon Kassebaum, Senator from Kansas Robert McNamara, himself

Mexico Rosario Green, Secretary of Foreign Relations Juan José Bremer, Ambassador to USA Héctor Aguilar Camín, Cultural Journalism National Award,

Literature Award Fernando Canales Clariond, Secretary of Economy and of

Energy; Governor of Nuevo León Carlos Fuentes, Miguel de Cervanates Prize, Belisario

Domínguez Medal of Honor Arturo Sarukhan (RA), Ambassador to USA

NAFTA? WHY? WHY THEN?

Global Scenario: Economic multipolarity and rivalry (Japan, EU) Geopolitical uncertainty Emphasis on geoeconomics

U.S. Perspectives: Supplement to FTA with Canada Support for neoliberal reforms in Mexico Growing Mexican-American population within U.S.

Mexican Perspectives: Exhaustion of alternatives (Europe, Japan) Need to stimulate growth in light of debt crisis Perpetuation of Salinista policies Fundamental change in orientatioin

NAFTA: WHAT IS IT?

A “free trade” area: Not a customs union Nor a common market

Characteristics:• Uneven levels of development• Cultural and political variation• Hub-and-spoke arrangements (with U.S. at center)• Absence of supranational authority (preservation of sovereignty)

ASSESSING RESULTS: THE PROBLEM OF CAUSE-AND-EFFECT

NAFTA in comparison with:

• Initial expectations (and political rhetoric)

• Liberalization (mid-1980s)

• Global and/or U.S. economic conditions

• Long-term economic and social trends

• Short-term shocks (e.g., Mexican peso crisis of 1994-95)

ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE:EXPANSION OF TRADE

General effects:• More efficiency (in production and consumption)• Greater market size (thus higher returns)• Tougher competition

Questions:

1. Who takes part in the trade? (55 % large firms, 40% maquiladoras, > 5% small firms (~ 2.1 million firms)

2. What about trade diversion?

EXPANSION OF TRADE, 1993-2005 (millions USD $$)

GDP GROWTH IN MEXICO

1945-1980 ~ 6.5%

1995 -7.0 % 1996 5.1 1997 6.8 1998 4.9 1999 3.8 2000 6.6 2001 -0.2 2002 0.7 2003 1.5 2004 4.6 2005 2.8 2006 5.0 2007 3.2 2008 1.3 2009 -6.8 2010 5.1 2011 4.0 2012 4.0 2013 1.1

Unforeseen Shocks:

Mexican peso crisis of 1994-95September 11, 2001Drug-related violence, 2008-presentGlobal financial crisis, 2008-11

Current Challenges:

Expansion of the development gapInfrastructure (including roads)MigrationEnergySecurity problems

POLITICAL EFFECTS

The Public Assertion: Free Trade = Democracy

The Silent Bargain: International Dimensions

• Political stability and social peace

• Access to petroleum

• Leverage vis-à-vis economic rivals

• Compliance on foreign policy

HEMISPHERIC INTEGRATION?

1. Expansion of NAFTA (through new memberships)

2. FTAA negotiating process (RIP)

3. Bilaterals and minilaterals:• U.S.-Chile• U.S.-Central America (+ Dominican Republic)• U.S.-Peru• U.S.-Colombia• U.S.-Panama• Alianza del Pacífico (Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru + others?)

POST-NAFTA: THE FOX ERA (2000-06)

Democratic “bonus,” promotion of democracy and human rights

Deliberate departure from PRI, turn toward USA

Expectations re immigration reformSupport for FTAAClaim to regional leadership, conflict with

Hugo ChávezPost-9/11

Slow response on attacks Temporary seat on UN Security Council Opposition to invasion of Iraq Disputes with Cuba

POST-NAFTA: THE CALDERÓN ERA

(2006-12)

Cooperation with USA on drugs (Mérida Initiatve)

Softening of stance toward CubaFocus on position in Latin America (eg

CELAC)Opposition to Honduran coupDisappointment over ChinaLowered pri0rity for foreign policy

POST-NAFTA: THE PEÑA NIETO ERA

(2012- )Cooperation with USAFocus on infrastructure and investmentAlianza del Pacífico, Trans-Pacific PartnershipHigh-level meetings with China (some

projects cancelled)Observe USA-Cuba rapprochementConcern over Central AmericaAmbivalence toward Latin America

NB: Loss of popularity over economy and deaths of students

AND NOW?

“jockeying for position”