Metsä Board and other IR... · 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Nordea Forest Seminar ... Metsä...
Transcript of Metsä Board and other IR... · 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Nordea Forest Seminar ... Metsä...
Nordea Forest Products and Paper Seminar, Helsinki
16.5.2017
Metsä BoardCEO Mika Joukio
Metsä Board – A leading European producer of
premium fresh fibre paperboards
• Market leader in folding boxboard in Europe
and global market leader in coated white
fresh fibre linerboard
• Customers are brand owners, converters,
corrugated box manufacturers and
merchants
• Employees in 23 countries and global sales
to over 100 countries
• Strong fibre know-how and self-sufficiency
in pulp
SalesEUR 1.7bn
2,500employees
EBIT EUR
137mill.
8%ROCE
8 production
sites
Paperboarddeliveries1.6 mill.tonnes
2Figures are from 2016
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Sales, M€
3
Comparable EBIT, M€and EBIT-%
1,7
20
2,1
08
2,0
19
2,0
08
2,0
08
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
137
74
104
137
180
3.5
5.2
6.8
9.0
8.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
40
80
120
160
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Steady sales and improved profitability Husum ramp-up impacted on 2016 profitability
Dividend,€ and dividend pay-out ratio, %
0.1
9
0.0
6
0.0
9
0.1
2
0.1
7
11%
47%
57%
44%
76%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Metsä Board has a wide customer base Brand owner sales represents roughly 50% in folding boxboard,
corrugated box manufacturers is the biggest customer segment in white linerboards
FOLDING BOXBOARD WHITE LINERBOARDS
CONVERTERSCORRUGATED BOX
MANUFACTURERS
MERCHANTS
BRAND OWNERS
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Various end-uses from high-quality paperboardsFolding boxboards, white fresh fibre linerboards and fully bleached linerboards
Consumer goods Retail-readyFood service
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• Lightweighting
– Metsä Board’s folding boxboard can be even 30% lighter than
competing grades (eg. SBS, WLC)
• Purity and safety
– Important especially in food packaging
• Sustainability
– Fresh fibres are recyclable and renewable raw material. Metsä
Board’s wood raw material is 100% traceable to sustainably
managed northern forests
• Quality
– Metsä Board’s paperboards are premium-quality
6
Metsä Board’s paperboards have
many competitive advantages
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Metsä Board has a strong position in Europe
Largest Folding Boxboard Producers in EuropeTotal capacity: 3.6M tonnes
Largest White Fresh Fibre Linerboard Producers in EuropeTotal capacity: 2.2M tonnes
Sources: Company information, Pöyry Management Consulting Oy Q2/2017
15%
7%
9%
11%
21%
37%
0 300 600 900 1200 1500
Others
International Paper
Mayr-Melnhof
Kotkamills Oy
Stora Enso
Metsä Board
14%
8%
11%
13%
23%
31%
0 200 400 600 800
Others
SCA
BillerudKorsnäs
Mondi
Smurfit Kappa
Metsä Board
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Operating environmentand growth drivers
9
Strong growth drivers
The demand for
premium-quality
paperboard made from
fresh fibre is growing
globally 3–4% p.a.
GLOBALISATION TECHNOLOGY
SUSTAINABILITY CONSUMPTION
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Global cartonboard*) market is 36 Mt/a of which
folding boxboard market is about 9 Mt/a
Source: Metsä Board estimates
*) excluding liquid packaging board, cup & plate stock,
liner and uncoated recycled board.
APAC20 Mt/a
EMEA8 Mt/a
North
America6 Mt/a
Lat.Am.2 Mt/a
Folding boxboard
Other fresh fibre grades (e.g. SBS, CUK)
Recycled grades
Avg. growth rate for
folding boxboard is
3–4%/a
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Global food service board market is 3.5 Mt/a*
*) Base board only, excl. other laminate
materials such as aluminium and PE.
Cups
Plates
Cartons
APAC1.0 Mt/a
EMEA0.9 Mt/a
Americas1.6 Mt/a
Avg. growth rate for food
service board is
3–5%/a
Source: Metsä Board estimatesNordea Forest Seminar 2017
12Source: Metsä Board estimates
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Americas3 Mt/a
EMEA4.5 Mt /a
APAC3 Mt/a
White top kraftliner
Fully bleached liner
White recycled liner
Global white linerboard market is 10.5 Mt/aGlobal coated white-top kraftliner market is 1 Mt/a,
of which Metsä Board’s share is roughly 40%
Global containerboard market is 155 Mt/a,
of which
• White linerboards 7%
• Brown kraftliner 17%
• Brown testliner 37%
• Fluting 39%
40%
Metsä Board’s growth exceeds clearly the average
market growth
13
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 target
Fresh fibre linerboard Folding boxboard
Annual paperboard deliveries, 1,000 tonnes
Premium-quality paperboard made
from fresh fibres is replacing
• other packaging materials e.g.
plastics in food service
applications
• recycled paperboard in food
packaging (safety issues) or in
consumer packaging (higher
quality)
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GROWTH
FROM THE
AMERICAS
IN THE COMING
YEARS
AMERICAS
SHARE OF SALES IN 2016
17 %MAINTAIN
THE STRONG
MARKET
POSITION IN
EUROPE
EMEA
SHARE OF SALES IN 2016
75 %
FOCUS ON
PREMIUM
PAPERBOARD
SEGMENTS IN
THE
ASIA-PACIFIC
REGION
APAC
SHARE OF SALES IN 2016
8 %
Metsä Board’s regional goals and operating models
In 2016 the y-o-y growth was: +14% in Americas, +10% in EMEA, +24% in APAC
Husum investment programmeand update
16
Husum investment programme
finalised the transformation
• Husum integrated facility
• Folding boxboard production line (400,000 t/a)
• Linerboard production line (270,000 t/a)
• Extrusion coating line (100,000 t/a, included in FBB
capacity)
• Own harbour minimise transport, improve efficiency
and sustainability of the supply chain
• Deliveries targeted to Americas, Europe and food
service applications globally
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New state-of-the-art extrusion
coating line started up at Husum
• Serving the global food service market
• PE-coated*) paperboard is an alternative to plastics in
cups, plates and other takeaway packaging and frozen
food packaging
• Supports growth in a new customer segment
• EUR 38 million investment with a capacity of 100,000 t/a
• Metsä Board continues development work on other
innovative barrier solutions including the use of bio-based
materials
*) PE=polyethylene, the most common barrier
material used against moisture and grease
• Rising capacity utilisation rate in the FBB production
line (now 70%) will decrease production costs per
tonne produced
• FBB production line fully utilised by the end of 2018
• Total paperboard deliveries to Americas will increase
• PE-coated paperboards generate sales in a new
customer segment
• The volumes of coated linerboards will grow
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Potential to improve
profitability in Husum
Q1 2017 Resultsand outlook
Total paperboard deliveries grewAll-time high monthly level in March 2017
210 203 204 213 224 224 227 250 266 245 265
120 111 130141 137 131 142
148148
143163
0
60
120
180
240
300
360
420
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Q42015
Q12016
Q22016
Q32016
Q42016
Q12017
Folding boxboard White fresh fibre linerboard
1,0
00
to
nn
es
Growth in total
paperboard deliveries:
+10% Q1/17 vs. Q4/16
+16% Q1/17 vs. Q1/16
+12% FY16 vs. FY15
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FY 2015:
1.4 mill. tonnes
FY 2016:
1.6 mill. tonnes
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Folding boxboard White-top kraftliner
Market price development in folding boxboard
and white-top kraftliner in Europe
Sources: Pöyry Management Consulting & FOEX Indexes Ltd
EUR/ tn
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Sales increased and profitability improved
Sales, EUR million
526 522 498 462 436 423 440 422 4450
100
200
300
400
500
600
Q115
Q215
Q315
Q415
Q116
Q216
Q316
Q416
Q117
43 47 55 35 35 36 34 33 45
8.2 %
9.0 %
11.0 %
7.6 %8.0 %
8.5 %7.7 % 7.8 %
10.1 %
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Q115
Q215
Q315
Q415
Q116
Q216
Q316
Q416
Q117
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Comparable operating result, EUR million and %
FY 2015:
EUR 2,008 million
FY 2016:
EUR 1,720 million
FY 2015:
EUR 180 million
FY 2016:
EUR 137 million
EU
R m
illio
n
EU
R m
illio
n
• Investments in January–
March were EUR 19 million
(Q1/16: EUR 54 million)
• Estimated capex in 2017
is EUR 65–70 million
Clearly lower capex in 2017
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E
Maintenance capex Growth capex Depreciation
EUR million
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Main growth in capexes in 2015−2016: Husum investment programme, extrusion coating line
and equity investment in Metsä Fibre’s bioproduct mill
Cash flows clearly positiveQ1 2017 cash flow from operations impacted by changes in working capital,
advanced payments of pension premiums and dividend from Metsä Fibre
33 56
93
66
-22 -22
6755 269 8 45 8
-76
-50
49 17 7
250
214
256 247
193
115
8978
126
188
119 118
70
-15
-73
-69
-60
23
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17
Cash flow from operations, quarterly Free cash flow, quarterly
Cash flow from operations, rolling 12 months Free cash flow, rolling 12 months
EU
R m
illio
n
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Balance sheet remained stable
333 464 412 541 488 464 458
1.2
2.0
1.5
2.1 2.12.0
1.9
0
1
2
3
0
200
400
600
2015 2016 3/16 6/16 9/16 12/16 3/17
Interest-bearing net debt, EUR million
Interest-bearing net debt / EBITDA (rolling 12m)
Interest-bearing net debt /
comparable EBITDA
333 464 412 541 488 464 458
32%
44%42%
54%
49%
44% 44%
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0
200
400
600
2015 2016 3/16 6/16 9/16 12/16 3/17
Interest-bearing net debt, EUR million
Net gearing, %
Net gearing, %
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Financial target in net gearing
is maximum of 70%
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Near-term outlook
• Good demand in fresh fibre paperboards, pulp
market expected to remain healthy
• Price levels are expected to be stable or rising
• Metsä Board’s paperboard delivery volumes
are expected to increase
• Several maintenance shutdowns in Finnish
mills in Q2, rising latex price increase the
production costs
Profit guidance:
Metsä Board's comparable operating result for
the second quarter of 2017 is expected to remain
roughly on the same level as in the first quarter of
2017.
• Transformation is over and Metsä Board is a
pure player in packaging
• Metsä Board’s paperboard respond well to
strict requirements of packaging materials
• Potential to improve profitability in Husum
• Extrusion coating line offers improved
availability and competitive products,
especially in the food and food service
segment
• 2017 focus is on sales of new
paperboard capacity
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Summary
Metsä Board’s
2017 Capital Markets Day1 June 2017 in Helsinki
More info: www.metsaboard.com/investors
Metsä Board’s
2017 Capital Markets Day1 June 2017 in Helsinki
More info: www.metsaboard.com/investors
Metsä Board’s
2017 Capital Markets Day1 June 2017 in Helsinki
More info: www.metsaboard.com/investors