Metsä Board Financial statements review results/2015… · Metsä Board 2015 Financial statements...
Transcript of Metsä Board Financial statements review results/2015… · Metsä Board 2015 Financial statements...
Metsä Board Financial statements review 2015
Metsä Board2015 Financial statements review
• Paperboard delivery volumes increased by 12% compared to 2014
• Operating profit improved 32%
• Strong operating cash flow and balance sheet
• Board proposes to AGM a dividend of 0,17 EUR / share
• Husum investment programme proceeded as planned
• Investment decision on own extrusion line
• Divestment of Gohrsmühle mill and exit from paper production
Q4 20152
Highlights in 2015
Strong financial performance in 2015
2015 2014 Change
Sales EUR million 2,008 2,008 ---
EBITDA, excl. NRIs EUR million 283 236 20%
% of sales % 14,1 11,8 ↑
Operating result, excl. NRIs EUR million 180 137 31%
% of sales % 9,0 6,8 ↑
Result before taxes, excl. NRIs EUR million 150 100 50%
Earnings per share EUR 0,39 0,20 95%
ROCE, excl. NRIs % 11,3 9,1 ↑
Gross investments EUR million 178 44
Cash flow from operations EUR million 247 198 25%
Q4 20153
Continuous improvement in profitability
3,4
4,8
6,4
9,1
11,3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
%
2,4
3,6
5,2
6,8
9,0
0
2
4
6
8
10
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
%Q4 20154
ROCE-%, excl. non-recurring itemsEBIT-%, excl. non-recurring items
Target over 12% from 2017
Operating result in Q4 weakened as expected,
sales down due to the decreased paper deliveries
Q4 20155
29 36 28 35 37 43 47 55 35
6%7%
6%7%
7%8%
9%
11%
8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
0
10
20
30
40
50
Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q415
Operating result*EUR million and % of sales
18 21 20 27 32 32 40 48 30
4% 4% 4%5%
6% 6%
8%
10%
7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
0
10
20
30
40
50
Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15
Pre-tax result* EUR million and % of sales
479 501 494 514 499 526 522 498 462200
300
400
500
600
Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15
SalesEUR million
*) excluding non-recurring items
Paperboard deliveries declined slightly in Q4/2015Growth in 2015 vs. 2014 was 12%
Q4 20156
189 192 197 185 191 197 210 203 204 213 224 224
94 93 9591
112 110120
111130
141 137 131
0
60
120
180
240
300
360
Q1/13 Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15
Folding boxboard Fresh forest fibre linerboard
1,000 tonnes
Note! Figures exclude wallpaper deliveries
Paperboard segment in Q4/2015
Q4 20157
Operating result, excl. non-recurring itemsSales
EU
R m
illio
n
EU
R m
illio
n
5161 60 65
51
14%16% 15% 16%
13%
-2%
1%
4%
7%
10%
13%
16%
0
20
40
60
Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/150
100
200
300
400
Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15
Q4/2015 (Q3/2015)
• Delivery volumes decreased due to seasonality and were 365 000 tons (373 000)
• Negative impact from the investment related integrate shutdown in Husum was EUR 20 million, of which
slightly less than half was allocated to Paperboard segment
• Price levels remained stable. Metsä Board’s FBB price increase announcement in Europe
came into effect on 1 December.
Operating result, M€
Operating result, M€
EBIT-%
Non-core operations segment in Q4/2015
Q4 20158
Operating result, excl. non-recurring itemsSales
EU
R m
illio
n
EU
R m
illio
n
0
50
100
150
Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15
-1,8 -3,2 -3,4 -1,3 -8,4
-1% -3%
-3%
-2%
-17%
-18%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
-18
-14
-10
-6
-2
2
Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15
Q4/2015 (Q3/2015)
• Significant decrease in paper delivery volumes
• Negative impact from the investment related integrate shutdown in Husum was EUR 20 million,
of which slightly over a half was allocated to Non-core operations segment
• Production of uncoated paper sheets ended in Husum
Operating result, M€
Operating result, M€
EBIT-%
FX exposure by currencyAnnual gross amount EUR 1.1 billion
62 %26 %
9 %3 % USD
SEK
GBP
Othercurrencies
10 % strengthening of foreign currency vs. EUR
will have an impact on Metsä Board’s annual EBIT of
Currency 2015 2016 (est.)
USD, $ EUR +45 million EUR +60 million
GBP, £ EUR +20 million EUR +10 million
Swedish krona EUR -30 million EUR -30 million
9
Annual FX sensitivities to Group EBIT
• FX rate changes in the main foreign currencies were favourable to Metsä Board in 2015
• Hedge accounting costs in 2015 were EUR 22 million (10)
• Hedging duration of the main foreign currency flows is 3–6 months
• Segment figures reflect exchange rate changes rapidly but hedge accounting result in Other operations
balance the impact
Q4 2015
FX exposure and sensitivities
Strong balance sheet
Equity ratio, %
27%
33%
41%39%
47%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2011 2010 2013 2014 2015
106%
73% 70%
51%
32%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Q4 201510
Net gearing, %
783 625 597 427 333
4,4
3,4
2,9
1,8
1,2
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net debt, EUR million
Net debt/EBITDA
Net debt, EUR million and Net debt/EBITDA
Target 70%
Capital expenditure
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E
Capex Growth capex Depreciation
• Annual capex excluding the growth capex
is EUR 40–60 million
• Main growth capexes in 2015–2016 :
– Husum investment:
EUR 170 million (in 2015: 132 M€)
– Extrusion line:
EUR 38 million (in 2016: 23M€)
– Metsä Fibre’s bioproduct mill:
EUR 25 million* (2016)
Q4 201511
EUR million
*) investment in equity
Q4 201512
Investment programme in Husum
is completed
• The new FBB production line is in the start-up phase
– Delay in the start-up phase will have a slight negative impact on the
operating result in Q1/2016
– Integrate shutdown had approximately EUR -20 million impact on
Q4/2015 operating result
• Targeted product quality is expected to be reached by Q3/2016
according to the original plan
Folding boxboard production (BM1)
• Full production capacity (400,000 t/a)
reached by the end of 2016
• Deliveries mainly to Americas and
Food service globally – expected volume in
2016 at least 200,000 tonnes
Linerboard production (BM2)
• Capacity 300,000 t/a
• Deliveries to Europe and Americas
• Remaining uncoated paper*
production to linerboard production
by end of 2017
*) current run-rate 100,000 tn/a
Investment programme in Husum mill, Sweden
Annual EBIT impact EUR +50 million
– Roughly one third will materialise in 2016, full impact in 2018
Gohrsmühle divestment
Annual EBIT impact EUR +20 million
– Roughly half materialised in 2015, full impact in 2016
– Reduces annual sales by EUR 90 million
Q4 201513
Financial impacts of transformation
Q4 201514
Outlook for Q1/2016
• Total delivery volumes in paperboard will grow
compared to Q4/2015
• Average price level in FBB is expected to decline due
to the start-up volumes from the new FBB production
line
• The delay in the start-up phase of the new FBB
production line will have a negative impact on pulp and
paperboard production volumes
• Total production costs are expected to remain stable
Metsä Board’s operating result excluding
non-recurring items in Q1/2016 is expected
to remain roughly at the same level as in Q4/2015
Q4 201515
Profit guidance for Q1/2016
The Board proposes a dividend of 0,17 EUR / share
which equals 44% of EPS
0,06
0,09
0,12
0,17
0
0,02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,1
0,12
0,14
0,16
0,18
0,2
2012 2013 2014 2015
2015 CMD16
• Metsä Board’s dividend payout target is at least 1/3 of EPS
• Average pay-out ratio during 2012–2014 has been 40%
• Solid financial performance in 2015: Improved profitability,
strong operating cash flow and balance sheet
• Metsä Board’s paperboard deliveries grew by 12%
compared to 2014
• Healthy demand in fresh forest fibre paperboards
expected to continue
• Metsä Board’s new FBB production line is in the start-up
phase in Husum. The target is to sell 200,000 tonnes of
new FBB to Americas and food service globally in 2016
• Transformation process to pure paperboard company is
completed
Q4 201517
Summary
Appendix
Other operations segment in Q4/2015
Q4 201519
-2 -6 -6 -12 -14 -9 -9 -8
-15
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15
Other operations segment:
Operating result, excl. non-recurring itemsEUR million
• Other operations segment include costs which
are not allocated to units, e.g. head office costs
and hedge accounting
• Cost base of these is roughly EUR 5 million per
quarter
• Result fluctuation is mainly caused by hedge
accounting, which had a total negative impact of
EUR 22 million in 2015 (-10)
EBITDA development
180 185208
236
283
7,2 %
8,8 %
10,3 %
11,8 %
14,1 %
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EU
R m
illio
n
Q4 201520
EBITDA, excl. non-recurring items
Financial costs are declining steadily
47 56 39 323,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
0
20
40
60
2012 2013 2014 2015
Net financial costs, EUR million
Average interest rate, %
• Net financial costs in FY2015 totalled EUR 32
million (2014: 39)
• Net financial costs in Q4/2015 totalled EUR
4.7 million (Q3/15: 7.1)
• Declining costs due to the lower interest rates
and credit margins as well as decline in IB
debt
• Average interest rate in IB debt in
FY2015 was 3.8% (4.0)
Q4 201521
Net financial costs and average interest rateEUR %
Strong cash flow from operations
-19
92
51 74 33 56 91 66
-24
78
46 56 9 8 45 8
19
114
157
198
250
214
254 245
-37
57
110155
188
119 118
70
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15
Cash flow from operations, quarterly Free cash flow, quarterly
Cash flow from operations, rolling 12 months Free cash flow, rolling 12 months
Q4 201522
EUR million
Diversified funding sources, strong liquidity
34 %
39 %
24 %
3%Bonds
Loans from financialinstitutions
Pension loans
Finance leases andother loans
Q4 201523
Debt structureTotal EUR 659 million
31 December 2015
67 %
20 %
13 % Liquid assets andinvestments
Revolving creditfacility
Undrawn pensionloan
Available liquidityTotal EUR 490 million
31 December 2015
Average interest rate of IB at the end of 2015 was 3.8% and average repayment time of long-term borrowing 2.6 years.
Shares, % (total no. of shares 355,512,746)
24
Votes, % (total no. of votes 1,037,530,115)
16,8
2,2
19,8
40,2
4,5
5,311,2
Households
Non-profitorganisations
Foreigners*
MetsäliittoCooperative
Other companies
Finance andinsurance companies
Public sectororganisations
10,0 4,1
7,0
60,9
1,8
1,9 14,4
Households
Non-profitorganisations
Foreigners*
MetsäliittoCooperative
Other companies
Finance andinsurance companies
Public sectororganisations
Ownership structure on 31 December 2015
* incl. nominee registeredSource: Euroland
Q4 2015
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Taivekartonki Valkopintainen kraftlaineri
Price development of FBB and white-top kraftliner in
Europe in 2009–2015
Sources: Pöyry Management Consulting ja FOEX Indexes Ltd
EUR/ tn
Folding boxboard White-top kraftliner
9.2.2016
Price development in pulp (PIX) 2004–2015
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 ´09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
Havu
Lehti
Lehti
Havu
USD
EUR
USD
Source: Foex Indexes Ltd
EUR