Metro Boston Projections Update · 2018-10-26 · •Neighborhood demographics •Current rents and...
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Metro Boston Projections Update Tim Reardon Director of Data Services Metropolitan Area Planning Council Boston MPO November 16, 2017
Transcript of Metro Boston Projections Update · 2018-10-26 · •Neighborhood demographics •Current rents and...
Metro Boston
Projections Update
Tim ReardonDirector of Data Services
Metropolitan Area Planning Council
Boston MPO
November 16, 2017
Presentation Outline
• Regional Growth since 2010
• Regional Population Projections
• Regional Household Projections
• Land Use Model
• Q & A
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-2015
Avera
te A
nnual G
row
th R
ate
Annual Population Growth Ratesby Community Type, Metro Boston
1970 - 2015
Inner Core
Regional UrbanCenters
MaturingSuburbs
DevelopingSuburbs
Source: U.S. Census, Decennial Census and Population Estimates
Population Growth Rates
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
MAPC StrongerRegion Scenario
(prorated)
U.S. CensusPopulationEstimates
MAPC Projections vs Population Estimates2010-2016, Metro Boston
Developing Suburbs
Maturing Suburbs
Regional UrbanCenters
Inner Core
Region has grown
faster than projected,
especially in
suburban community
types
Domestic Outmigration is a Drag on Growth
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Components of Population Change, 2011-2016 Metro Boston (5 County)
Total Population Change
Net international Migration
Natural Increase
Net Domestic Migration
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Projected Demand(prorated)
Permitted Units,2010 - 2016
Projected Demand vs. Permitted Units, 2010 - 2016, Metro Boston
Multifamily -- Developing Suburbs
Multifamily -- Maturing Suburbs
Multifamily -- Regional Urban Centers
Multifamily -- Inner Core
Single Family -- Developing Suburbs
Single Family -- Maturing Suburbs
Single Family -- Regional Urban Centers
Single Family -- Inner Core
New multifamily units
meeting only
64% of estimated
demand
Source: Massachusetts
Department of
Elementary and
Secondary Education,
MAPC Analysis
Change School-age residents:
projected vs. enrollment
54%
45%8%
17%
22%
19%
15%
19%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2004-2008 2009-2015
Em
plo
ym
ent C
hange
Post-Recession Employment Growth, by Community Type, Metro Boston
(labeled with percent of total)
DevelopingSuburbs
MaturingSuburbs
Regional UrbanCenters
Inner Core
Source: MA EOLWD, ES-202
Nearly two-thirds of
recent job growth is in
urban communities
Regional Population Projections
MassDOT Projections Committee
Participants:
• MassDOT
• 13 Regional Planning Agencies / MPOs
• EOEEA, EOHED
Technical Consultant:
• Umass Donahue Institute – Population Estimates Program
Methods:
• Traditional Cohort Component: Births – Deaths + Migration
• Migration rates based on 2005 – 2011 period
• Calibrated to match 2015 population estimates
• “Benchmark” region municipalities –> RPAs
• Preliminary projections released November 10
• Future work: labor force estimates, employment by RPA
2,800,000
3,000,000
3,200,000
3,400,000
3,600,000
3,800,000
4,000,000
Census2000
Census2010
2020 2030 2040
Historical Population and Projections, MAPC Region2010 - 2040
UMDI - PROVISIONAL
MAPC Stronger Region
17.5%
14.9%
UMDI projections: An even Stronger Region?
UMDI Projections: An Aging Region
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
MAPC Region Population by Age2010 - 2040, UMDI - PROVISIONAL
Population 2015
Population 2020
Population 2025
Population 2030
Population 2035
Population 2040
Census 2010
Household Projections
Labor Force and Household projections (MAPC)
Refine existing regional population and household model
Population detail: • Race & Ethnicity• Education*• Labor force participation*• Wage*• Headship rate*
Household detail• Age of householder• Families with children • Household size • Income ($) • Workers • Tenure *
* These variables may be
adjusted to test a range
of assumptions and create
multiple scenarios
Household AgentsCategorized by householder age, household size, household structure, income
NON-FAMILY
15-34
1
Under 15,000
15,000-34,999
35,000-74,999
75,000-149,999
150,000+
2
Under 15,000
15,000-34,999
35,000-74,999
75,000-149,999
150,000+
3
Under 15,000
15,000-34,999
35,000-74,999
75,000-149,999
150,000+
4+
Under 15,000
15,000-34,999
35,000-74,999
75,000-149,999
150,000+
35-44
1
Under 15,000
15,000-34,999
35,000-74,999
75,000-149,999
150,000+
2
Under 15,000
15,000-34,999
35,000-74,999
75,000-149,999
150,000+
3
Under 15,000
15,000-34,999
35,000-74,999
75,000-149,999
150,000+
4+
Under 15,000
15,000-34,999
35,000-74,999
75,000-149,999
150,000+
45-64
1
Under 15,000
15,000-34,999
35,000-74,999
75,000-149,999
150,000+
2
Under 15,000
15,000-34,999
35,000-74,999
75,000-149,999
150,000+
3
Under 15,000
15,000-34,999
35,000-74,999
75,000-149,999
150,000+
4+
Under 15,000
15,000-34,999
35,000-74,999
75,000-149,999
150,000+
65+
1
Under 15,000
15,000-34,999
35,000-74,999
75,000-149,999
150,000+
2
Under 15,000
15,000-34,999
35,000-74,999
75,000-149,999
150,000+
3
Under 15,000
15,000-34,999
35,000-74,999
75,000-149,999
150,000+
4+
Under 15,000
15,000-34,999
35,000-74,999
75,000-149,999
150,000+
FAMILY
15-34
2
Under 15,000
15,000-34,999
35,000-74,999
75,000-149,999
150,000+
3
Under 15,000
15,000-34,999
35,000-74,999
75,000-149,999
150,000+
4+
Under 15,000
15,000-34,999
35,000-74,999
75,000-149,999
150,000+
35-44
2
Under 15,000
15,000-34,999
35,000-74,999
75,000-149,999
150,000+
3
Under 15,000
15,000-34,999
35,000-74,999
75,000-149,999
150,000+
4+
Under 15,000
15,000-34,999
35,000-74,999
75,000-149,999
150,000+
45+
2
Under 15,000
15,000-34,999
35,000-74,999
75,000-149,999
150,000+
3
Under 15,000
15,000-34,999
35,000-74,999
75,000-149,999
150,000+
4+
Under 15,000
15,000-34,999
35,000-74,999
75,000-149,999
150,000+
Land Use Projections
MAPC’s Land Use Allocation Model
• Allocates growth to Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) using Cube Land modeling software.
• Real estate market equilibrium between suppliers (developers) and consumers (households and firms)
• Accessibility to jobs & labor is explicit factor in where firms/households locate
• Economic model assuming rational behavior
• Real estate properties are occupied by the household or firm willing to pay the most
• Developers maximize profits when deciding what type of buildings to provide
Integrated Land Use / Transportation Modeling
Household and Employer Location Preferences
Future Land Use
Travel Demand
Accessibility & Congestion
Transportation Projects & Programs
Land Use Regulation
Land Use Allocation Model - Specifications
Model components
• 18 household agent types
• 11 employer/firm types (NAICS codes)
• 8 real estate types
• 2700+ TAZs
Key factors
• Peak period travel times to every other zone, by auto and transit
• Transit station proximity
• Neighborhood demographics
• Current rents and commercial lease prices, by zone
Land use inputs
• Development capacity, by real estate type
• Subsidies for certain households or firms
• Development pipeline / Real estate supply
Products
• Households classified by size, workers, income, auto availability
• Employment by sector
• New real estate square footage
Massbuilds – A key input
4,000 developments statewide
Zonal Allocation, 2015 LRTP projections (households)
Regional household totals (by agent type)..
MAPC
Boston
TAZ 1 TAZ 2 etc
Cambridge Somerville Wrentham
TAZ 2456 TAZ 2457
Municipal Household
Totals based on 2014
population and
household projections
NEW Land Use Allocation Model
Regional household totals (by agent type)..
MAPC
TAZ 1 TAZ 2 etc TAZ 2456 TAZ 2457
Inputs: development pipeline,
zoning capacity,
transportation accessibility,
etc
Boston No predetermined
municipal projections!
Creating Regional Scenarios
Modify assumptions regarding:
•Migration rates
•Headship rates and family formation
• Education levels and income
•Development pipeline
•Zoning capacity
•Public subsidies
•Household location preferences
Use scenarios for LRTP modeling, MAPC Regional Plan Update
