Methods for Conducting Political Research Political Science I.

Methods for Conducting Political Research

Political Science I

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How do you develop hypotheses and conduct political research?


Hypotheses

• Researchers asking questions• Researchers ask questions to establish whether

there is any relationship between two variables• The hypotheses is used to develop the basis for

political research• Hypotheses are used to explain the researcher’s

observations that are either true or untrue• For example, “More Americans over 50 vote as

compared to American voters over 30”


Hypotheses (continued)

• Researchers asking questions (continued)• Hypotheses typically have three different parts• Predictive hypotheses − predict future values of a

measurement• Comparative hypotheses − make comparisons between

groups of people, companies, countries, products, etc. • Association hypotheses − deal with the relationship or

association between two or more variables


Hypotheses (continued)

• Hypotheses typically have three different parts• Predictive hypotheses − predict future values of a

measurement• Comparative hypotheses − make comparisons between

groups of people, companies, countries, products, etc. • Association hypotheses − deal with the relationship or

association between two or more variables• Hypotheses testing can be used to determine outcomes

• A single subject • A single group or sample• Two or more groups


Conducting Research

• Research is used to test hypotheses• The process of gathering or accumulating data might

come in the form of surveys, questionnaires, personal interviews, or from reading articles

• Research that is gathered must be arranged, classified, analyzed, and interpreted to see if the information is credible in determining the outcomes of the hypotheses

• The final step in conducting research is the verification of conclusions that were made from the research


Conducting Research (continued)

• Research is used to test hypotheses• The process of gathering or accumulating data might

come in the form of surveys, questionnaires, personal interviews, or from reading articles

• Research that is gathered must be arranged, classified, analyzed, and interpreted to see if the information is credible in determining the outcomes of the hypotheses

• The final step in conducting research is the verification of conclusions that were made from the research


Conducting Research (continued)

• Most political research focuses on five fields of inquiry• History, theory, and philosophy of politics• American or international politics• Comparative politics• Public administration• International relations


What is the difference between independent and dependent variables in political research?


Dependent Variable

• The dependent variable is the variable that is affected by other variables

• Changes in the dependent variable are caused by the independent variable• For example: “poverty causes crime”; the level of

crime is the dependent variable• The dependent variable can often be considered

the prediction in your hypothesis• It will be the primary focus of the research paper


Independent Variable

• The independent variable is said to cause the change in the dependent variable• For example: “poverty causes crime”; poverty is the

independent variable• The independent variable can be considered the

predictor variable• The independent variable in a research project is

used to explain the dependent variable• It is the instrument used to explain another variable


How do you collect samples from public opinion polls?


Types of Polls: Tracking Polls

• Were first introduced in 1992 by news organizations• Were introduced to allow presidential candidates to

monitor short-term campaign developments and the effects of campaign strategies

• Involve small samples, usually of registered voters, and they are conducted every twenty-four hours• The results are then combined into moving three-to-five-

day averages


Types of Polls: Internet Polls

• Scientific sampling strategies that can be used to predict outcomes and gauge opinions

• The people used in these polls are typically 3,000 representative volunteers

• These Internet polls are more accurate than straw polls because the survey group accurately reflects the population• Straw polls are unscientific political polls that allow

anyone to participate; therefore, they are less accurate than Internet polls


Types of Polls: Push Polls

• Contain questions intended to produce information that helps pollsters understand strengths and weaknesses

• Has questions that are designed to give respondents some negative or even untruthful information so that the pollster may gauge their response

• Have questions that are intended to sway the respondents’ opinion in a particular way


Conducting Polls: Determining Content• Most social scientists place the greatest stock in

systematic analyses conducted using telephone or person-to-person surveys

• Before conducting the polls, the pollsters must determine the content and the phrasing of the questions

• Determining the content is critical to obtaining the desired results

• Wording of a question can produce skewed results• Questions should be neutral so that they do not put

respondents on the spot or insight highly emotional responses


Conducting Polls:Selecting the Sample

• Since it is impossible to poll every person in the US, pollsters rely upon sample groups for results

• Pollsters then select a sample of approximately 3,000 participants• The demographics of this sample group should

accurately reflect the target demographic• It is important to remember that a large sample

group does not mean the results will be more accurate


How do you collect samples from public opinion polls?


Margin of Error

• All polls contain errors, regardless of sample size or the way the poll was conducted

• The margin of error is the measure of accuracy in a poll• Typically in a poll with 3,000 participants, the margin of

error is plus or minus 3 percentage points• Three percentage points can be added or subtracted from the

poll results• Is a statistical calculation of the difference in results

between a poll of a randomly drawn sample and a poll of the entire population


Sampling Error

• The accuracy of any poll depends on the quality of the sample that was drawn

• Small samples, if properly drawn, can be very accurate if each unit in the universe has an equal opportunity to be sampled

• If a pollster fails to sample a certain population his or her results will be skewed


Resources• Edwards, George, Martin Wattenberg, and Robert Lineberry. Government in America: People,

Politics and Policy. 15. New York City: Longman, 2011. Chapter 17 & 21. Print.• Ever, Stephen. Guide to Methods for Students of Political Science. Ithaca: Cornell UP, 1997.

Print. • Harrison, Brigid, and Jean Harris. American Democracy Now. 2. New York City: McGrawHill

Company, 2011. Chapter 15 & 18. Print.• Le Roy, Michael. Research Methods in Political Science: An Introduction Using Microcase.

8th ed. Boston: Wadsworth Cengage Learning, 2013. Print. • McNabb, David. Research Methods for Political Science: Quantitative and Qualitiative

Approaches. 2nd ed. New York City: M.E Sharpe, 2010. Print. • O'Conner, Karen, Larry Sabato, and Alixandra Yanus. American Government: Roots and

Reform. 2011. New York City: Longman, 2011. Chapter 4 & 18. Print.• Patterson, Thomas. The American Democracy. 9th. New York City: McGraw Hill Higher

Education, 2009. Ch. 15 & 18. Print.• Schmidt, Steffan, Mack Shelley, Barbara Bardes, and Lynne Ford. American Government and

Politics Today. 2011-2012. Boston: Wadsworth Cenage Learning, 2012. Chapter 17 &19. Print.

Methods for Conducting Political Research Political Science I.

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