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FAA Identifier:  CAE Lat/Long:  33-56-19.8000N / 081-07-10.3000W33-56.330000N / 081-07.171667W33.9388333 / -81.1195278(estimated) Elevation:  236 ft. / 71.9 m (surveyed) Variation:  05W (1985) From city:  5 miles SW of COLUMBIA, SC

KCAE 181756Z 12010KT 10SM SCT037 BKN130 27/16 A2977 RMK AO2 SLP078 T02670161 10272 20172 58035= KCAE 181856Z 14006KT 10SM SCT037 BKN130 26/16 A2974 RMK AO2 SLP067 T02610161= KCAE 181956Z 12005KT 6SM -RA FEW060 SCT090 BKN110 24/17 A2973 RMK AO2 RAB39 SLP064 P0000 T02440172= KCAE 182027Z 15019G25KT 1 1/4SM +RA FEW012 BKN028 OVC090 23/18 A2975 RMK AO2 RAE1959B26 P0000= KCAE 182027Z 15019G25KT 1 1/4SM +RA FEW012 BKN028 OVC090 23/18A2975= KCAE 182053Z 18004KT 3/4SM +RA BR SCT020 BKN034 OVC049 21/19 A2975 RMK AO2 RAE1959B26 P0042 RVRNO= KCAE 182056Z 00000KT 3/4SM +RA BR SCT020 BKN034 OVC045 21/19 A2974 RMK AO2 RAE1959B26 SLP070 P0047 60047 T02060189 55008 RVRNO= KCAE 182053Z 18004KT 3/4SM +RA BR SCT020 BKN034 OVC049 21/19 A2975= KCAE 182056Z 00000KT 3/4SM +RA BR SCT020 BKN034 OVC045 21/19 A2974= KCAE 182123Z 00000KT 3SM -RA BR BKN023 OVC065 21/18 A2973 RMK AO2 P0013= KCAE 182130Z 00000KT 2SM +RA BR BKN023 BKN050 OVC065 21/19 A2973 RMK AO2 P0016 $= KCAE 182156Z 00000KT 2 1/2SM RA BR FEW029 BKN046 OVC060 20/19 A2971 RMK AO2 SLP060 P0026 T02000189 $= KCAE 182256Z 06006KT 3SM +RA BR SCT004 BKN019 OVC034 21/19 A2968 RMK AO2 SLP049 P0004 T02060189 $= KCAE 182356Z 09007KT 5SM -RA BR SCT006 BKN009 OVC029 21/19 A2968 RMK AO2 SLP048 P0004 60081 T02060189 10272 20200 56022 $= KCAE 190056Z 09004KT 8SM BR BKN016 OVC039 21/19 A2966 RMK AO2 RAE44 SLP041 P0001 T02060189 $= KCAE 190056Z COR 09004KT 6SM BR BKN016 OVC039 21/19 A2966 RMK AO2 RAE44 SLP041 P0001 T02060189 $= KCAE 190056Z 09004KT 8SM BR BKN016 OVC039 21/19 A2966= KCAE 190156Z 05003KT 3SM +RA BR FEW005 SCT009 OVC018 20/19 A2964 RMK AO2 RAB11 SLP035 P0028 T02000189 $= KCAE 190256Z 00000KT 3SM -RA BR OVC008 21/19 A2962 RMK AO2 CIG 006V010 SLP029 P0005 60034 T02060189 56019 $=

KCAE 190256Z 00000KT 3SM -RA BR OVC008 21/19 A2962 RMK AO2 CIG 006V010 SLP029 P0005 60034 T02060189 56019 $= KCAE 190356Z 02005KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR FEW005 BKN010 OVC014 19/18 A2960 RMK AO2 SLP020 P0001 T01940178 $= KCAE 190456Z 00000KT 2 1/2SM BR OVC005 19/19 A2956 RMK AO2 RAE56 SLP009 P0001 T01940189 402720139 $= KCAE 190523Z 00000KT 2SM BR OVC003 19/19 A2956 RMK AO2 P0002 $= KCAE 190556Z VRB03KT 2SM -RA BR OVC003 19/19 A2955 RMK AO2 RAB27E37B55 SLP003 P0002 60038 T01940189 10206 20194 56025 $= KCAE 190619Z 03003KT 3SM RA BR OVC005 19/18 A2954 RMK AO2 P0012 $= KCAE 190656Z 04003KT 6SM -RA BR OVC006 19/18 A2952 RMK AO2 SLP993 P0019 T01940183 $= KCAE 190756Z 05004KT 10SM OVC006 19/18 A2949 RMK AO2 RAE56 SLP983 P0000 T01890183 $= KCAE 190856Z 06005KT 9SM OVC006 19/18 A2946 RMK AO2 RAB31E40 CIG 004V008 SLP974 P0000 60019 T01890178 56030 $= KCAE 190937Z 07005KT 5SM -RA BR OVC004 18/17 A2945 RMK AO2 RAB06 P0001 $= KCAE 190956Z 06006KT 2SM RA BR OVC004 18/17 A2944 RMK AO2 RAB06 SLP968 P0007 T01830172 $= KCAE 191030Z 07004KT 4SM -RA BR OVC007 18/17 A2944 RMK AO2 P0003= KCAE 191056Z 04005KT 3SM -RA BR OVC007 18/17 A2944 RMK AO2 SLP967 P0003 T01780172= KCAE 191124Z 05004KT 2SM -RA BR BKN007 OVC015 18/17 A2944 RMK AO2 P0000= KCAE 191139Z 07005KT 1SM -RA BR SCT007 BKN010 OVC015 18/17 A2943 RMK AO2 P0002 RVRNO= KCAE 191141Z 07005KT 3/4SM -RA BR SCT007 BKN010 OVC015 18/17 A2943 RMK AO2 P0002 RVRNO= KCAE 191156Z 06004KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR BKN005 BKN010 OVC039 18/17 A2942 RMK AO2 SLP962 P0002 60031 70150 T01780167 10194 20178 56013=

Warm advection is a much more efficient lifting mechanism than a wedge of cold advection.

Check water temperatures offshore to get a sense of the quantity of moisture available.

Convection requires cooling aloft, a massive warm advection will stabilize upper levels.

FAA Identifier:  FMY Lat/Long:  26-35-11.8000N / 081-51-47.7000W26-35.196667N / 081-51.795000W26.5866111 / -81.8632500(estimated) Elevation:  17 ft. / 5.2 m (surveyed) Variation:  03W (1990) From city:  3 miles S of FORT MYERS, FL

KFMY 181753Z 13013G21KT 4SM RA BR BKN110 23/22 A2968 RMK AO2 PRESFR SLP052 P0020 60065 T02280217 10239 20228 58038= KFMY 181853Z 14011G19KT 5SM RA BR BKN110 24/22 A2965 RMK AO2 SLP043 P0015 T02390222= KFMY 181953Z 15008G18KT 10SM -RA FEW011 SCT050 BKN110 24/23 A2962 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SW SLP033 P0012 T02440228= KFMY 182022Z 12012G18KT 5SM VCTS RA BR FEW014 SCT055 OVC090 24/23 A2960 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SW AND W TSB16 P0001= KFMY 182032Z 14015G23KT 2 1/2SM RA BR SCT012 BKN080 OVC100 24/23 A2960 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SW AND W TSB16E31 P0003= KFMY 182040Z 14013G20KT 2SM VCTS +RA BR FEW012 BKN070 OVC090 24/23 A2960 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT W TSB16E31B34 P0007= KFMY 182049Z 13007G16KT 1SM VCTS +RA BR FEW012 BKN037 OVC075 24/23 A2961 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT NE AND W TSB16E31B34 P0017= KFMY 182053Z 10010KT 1SM VCTS +RA BR FEW012 BKN033 OVC095 24/23 A2959 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT W-NE TSB16E31B34 SLP023 P0022 60049 T02440233 56020= KFMY 182111Z 10023G34KT 3/4SM VCTS +RA BR FEW017 OVC026 24/23 A2953 RMK AO2 PK WND 10034/2111 PRESFR P0031= KFMY 182121Z 15015G35KT 3/4SM +RA BR BKN015 OVC024 24/23 A2957 RMK AO2 PK WND 10035/2113 LTG DSNT N TSE15 P0058= KFMY 182125Z 22009G27KT 180V240 1/2SM +RA FG BKN013 BKN018 OVC024 24/23 A2960 RMK AO2 PK WND 10035/2113 WSHFT 2109 LTG DSNT N AND W TSE15 PRESRR P0070= KFMY 182132Z 22014G24KT 1/4SM +RA FG BKN009 OVC016 24/23 A2960 RMK AO2 PK WND 10035/2113 WSHFT 2109 LTG DSNT N AND W TSE15 P0109= KFMY 182147Z 21013G23KT 1SM RA BR BKN011 OVC016 25/23 A2960 RMK AO2 PK WND 10035/2113 WSHFT 2109 LTG DSNT NE TSE15 P0171= KFMY 182151Z 21010G23KT 3SM RA BR OVC011 25/23 A2960 RMK AO2 PK WND 10035/2113 WSHFT 2109 LTG DSNT NE TSE15 P0173= KFMY 182153Z 22009G23KT 3SM -RA BR OVC011 25/23 A2960 RMK AO2 PK WND 10035/2113 WSHFT 2109 LTG DSNT NE TSE15 SLP026 P0173 T02500233= KFMY 182209Z 20014G22KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR BKN011 BKN014 OVC037 25/24 A2960 RMK AO2 P0003= KFMY 182216Z 20016G28KT 5SM -RA BR SCT011 OVC039 25/23 A2961 RMK AO2 PK WND 21028/2211 LTG DSNT NE AND NW P0003= KFMY 182224Z 20014G25KT 4SM -RA BR BKN011 OVC039 25/23 A2961 RMK AO2 PK WND 21028/2211 LTG DSNT NE AND NW P0003= KFMY 182227Z 20011G24KT 4SM RA BR SCT011 BKN039 OVC047 25/23 A2961 RMK AO2 PK WND 21028/2211 LTG DSNT NW P0004= KFMY 182253Z 20014G22KT 5SM -RA BR FEW015 BKN028 OVC034 26/24 A2961 RMK AO2 PK WND 21028/2211 SLP029 P0004 T02560239= KFMY 182303Z 19013G24KT 2 1/2SM RA BR FEW014 BKN030 OVC040 26/24 A2962 RMK AO2 VIS 1 1/4V4 P0003= KFMY 182310Z 19012G19KT 3SM RA BR FEW015 BKN027 OVC032 26/24 A2962 RMK AO2 P0006= KFMY 182333Z 19008G18KT 3SM RA BR FEW009 BKN013 OVC025 26/24 A2963 RMK AO2 P0016= KFMY 182345Z 20010KT 3SM -RA BR FEW009 BKN026 OVC045 25/24 A2963 RMK AO2 P0021= KFMY 182353Z 19011G17KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR SCT011 BKN023 OVC028 26/24 A2963 RMK AO2 SLP034 P0023 60249 T02560239 10256 20228 53012=

KFMY 182353Z 19011G17KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR SCT011 BKN023 OVC028 26/24 A2963 RMK AO2 SLP034 P0023 60249 T02560239 10256 20228 53012= KFMY 190000Z 18007G17KT 3SM -RA BR SCT012 BKN022 OVC028 26/24 A2963 RMK AO2 P0004= KFMY 190040Z 19011G18KT 10SM FEW014 BKN050 OVC065 26/24 A2963 RMK AO2 RAE19 P0005= KFMY 190053Z 20011G18KT 6SM -RA BR FEW050 OVC070 26/24 A2963 RMK AO2 RAE19B47 SLP035 P0005 T02560244= KFMY 190100Z 20011G17KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR FEW009 SCT037 OVC070 26/24 A2963 RMK AO2 P0002= KFMY 190114Z 18010KT 10SM -RA FEW012 BKN033 OVC070 26/24 A2963 RMK AO2 P0009= KFMY 190125Z 19008KT 7SM -RA SCT010 BKN018 OVC037 26/24 A2964 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S AND SW P0009= KFMY 190133Z 19008KT 7SM -RA BKN012 BKN018 OVC037 26/24 A2964 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S AND SW P0010= KFMY 190153Z 19009G20KT 7SM -RA BKN010 OVC016 26/24 A2963 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S SLP036 P0012 T02560244= KFMY 190206Z 20010G19KT 2SM RA BR SCT012 BKN039 OVC110 25/23 A2963 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S P0009= KFMY 190215Z 19009G17KT 8SM -RA SCT014 BKN039 OVC120 25/23 A2963 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S P0010= KFMY 190227Z 19011G16KT 10SM SCT008 BKN014 OVC047 25/24 A2963 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S RAE21 P0010= KFMY 190253Z 20013G24KT 9SM SCT010 SCT017 BKN036 26/24 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 21026/0243 LTG DSNT S AND SW RAE21 SLP032 P0010 60027 T02610244 58002= KFMY 190331Z 20017G28KT 2 1/2SM RA BR FEW010 BKN038 BKN075 25/23 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 21029/0307 LTG DSNT SE AND S RAB18 P0007= KFMY 190334Z 20019G32KT 3SM VCTS -RA BR FEW010 SCT039 BKN048 25/23 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 22032/0333 LTG DSNT SE AND S TSB32RAB18 P0007= KFMY 190342Z 19019G32KT 1 3/4SM VCTS +RA BR FEW010 BKN037 OVC070 25/23 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 18032/0339 VIS 1/2V5 LTG DSNT SE AND S TSB32RAB18 P0010= KFMY 190349Z 20015G28KT 1 1/2SM VCTS -RA BR FEW009 BKN029 OVC070 25/23 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 18032/0339 LTG DSNT E-S TSB32RAB18 P0023= KFMY 190354Z 20014G25KT 3SM VCTS +RA BR FEW014 BKN029 OVC070 26/24 A2962 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT E-S P0002= KFMY 190350Z 20015G28KT 1 1/2SM VCTS -RA BR FEW009 BKN029 OVC070 25/23 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 18032/0339 LTG DSNT E-S TSB32RAB18 SLP033 P0023 T02500233=

KFMY 190406Z 20010KT 6SM -RA BR SCT009 BKN013 OVC018 26/24 A2963 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT E-S TSE06 P0006= KFMY 190429Z 19011G19KT 10SM VCTS SCT009 BKN017 OVC040 26/24 A2962 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S AND SW TSE06B28RAE12 P0006= KFMY 190441Z 19011G19KT 10SM VCTS FEW011 BKN034 OVC055 26/24 A2961 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE-SW TSE06B28RAE12 P0006= KFMY 190449Z 19012G18KT 10SM -RA FEW011 BKN036 OVC060 26/24 A2962 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE AND S TSE06B28E43RAE12B46 P0006 402610228= KFMY 190453Z 20012G19KT 8SM -RA SCT011 BKN034 OVC055 26/24 A2962 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE AND S TSE06B28E43RAE12B46 SLP031 P0006 T02560239 402610228= KFMY 190513Z 18007KT 8SM -RA SCT013 BKN024 OVC045 26/24 A2962 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE AND S P0001= KFMY 190533Z 20013G18KT 4SM RA BR SCT015 BKN034 OVC046 26/24 A2961 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE AND S P0003= KFMY 190544Z 20011G19KT 6SM -RA BR FEW009 BKN019 OVC037 26/24 A2961 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT E-S P0005= KFMY 190553Z 20012G17KT 8SM -RA SCT013 BKN027 OVC036 26/24 A2960 R KFMY 190553Z 20012G17KT 8SM -RA SCT013 BKN027 OVC036 26/24 A2960 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT E AND SE SLP026 P0005 60061 T02560239 10261 20250 58007= KFMY 190623Z 20010KT 9SM SCT011 BKN031 OVC046 26/24 A2959 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S RAE0555 P0000= KFMY 190637Z 21009KT 9SM SCT011 BKN027 OVC048 26/24 A2959 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S RAE0555 P0000= KFMY 190648Z 21009G17KT 10SM FEW011 SCT026 BKN045 26/24 A2959 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S RAE0555 P0000= KFMY 190653Z 21009KT 10SM FEW011 BKN045 OVC055 26/24 A2959 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S RAE0555 SLP022 P0000 T02610244= KFMY 190712Z 21009KT 10SM FEW017 BKN027 OVC043 26/24 A2959 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE AND S= KFMY 190724Z 19010G15KT 10SM SCT009 BKN027 OVC055 26/24 A2958 RMK AO2=

KFMY 190753Z 20008KT 10SM BKN014 BKN022 BKN036 26/24 A2957 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE AND S RAB31E40 SLP016 P0000 T02560239= KFMY 190833Z 20007KT 9SM SCT008 BKN014 OVC050 26/24 A2957 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT E= KFMY 190848Z 22007KT 3SM RA BR SCT008 BKN037 OVC050 26/25 A2956 RMK AO2 RAB46 P0000= KFMY 190850Z 21006KT 2SM +RA BR SCT010 BKN020 OVC050 26/25 A2956 RMK AO2 RAB46 P0003= KFMY 190853Z 19011G17KT 1 3/4SM +RA BR SCT010 BKN020 OVC050 26/25 A2957 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE AND S RAB46 SLP013 P0007 60007 T02610250 55008= KFMY 190856Z 22008G17KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR SCT014 BKN031 OVC065 26/24 A2956 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE AND S P0001= KFMY 190904Z 22008G14KT 10SM -RA FEW017 BKN043 BKN050 26/24 A2956 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE AND S P0001= KFMY 190926Z 20006KT 10SM FEW016 BKN022 BKN039 26/25 A2957 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE RAE11 P0001= KFMY 190953Z 23007KT 6SM -RA BR FEW014 BKN019 OVC036 26/24 A2958 RMK AO2 RAE11B44 SLP020 P0001 T02610244= KFMY 191013Z 22007KT 10SM FEW013 SCT028 OVC035 26/24 A2959 RMK AO2 RAE02 P0001= KFMY 191053Z 26006KT 10SM FEW020 SCT026 26/24 A2959 RMK AO2 RAE02 SLP022 P0001 T02560239= KFMY 191153Z 27007KT 10SM FEW020 26/24 A2961 RMK AO2 SLP027 60009 70384 T02560239 10261 20256 51014= RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY FL 438 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT FORT MYERS...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 4.19 INCHES WAS SET AT FORT MYERS YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 3.95 SET IN 1959.

Excessive rainfall requires deep moisture…high PWAT and a flow from the Tropics are good starters

Late season thunderstorms tend to have more wind in the South due to mixing from nearby jet stream flow