MERGE Activities relating to 1.5ºC · BECC-MERGE Seminar, 26 Nov 2018 ... •LPJ-GUESS...
Transcript of MERGE Activities relating to 1.5ºC · BECC-MERGE Seminar, 26 Nov 2018 ... •LPJ-GUESS...
BECC-MERGE Seminar, 26 Nov 2018
MERGE Activities relating to 1.5ºC
Paul Miller1,2
(With thanks to many MERGE & BECC colleagues)
1 Dept. of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science (INES)
2 Centre for Environmental & Climate Research (CEC)
• MERGE – overview
• LPJ-GUESS - continuously evolving for better impact studies
• Capturing often ignored (biophysical) feedbacks in low
emission scenarios
• MERGE & the EC-Earth Earth System Model – making unique
climate projections in CMIP6
• Towards better estimates of the remaining carbon budget in
line with a 1.5ºC target
Outline
MERGE for GAC 19-20 May 2010
• To advance the state-of-the-art for
representing biosphere-atmosphere
forcing and feedbacks in global and
regional Earth system (climate)
models
• To contribute to national and
international efforts to describe and
attribute climate change,
underpinning policy responses
• To educate a new generation of
young ESM model experts
• To support the ClimBEco graduate
school - www.climbeco.lu.se
• To improve the societal relevance of
climate models and their results
MERGE, a SRA that aims…
www.merge.lu.se
Target Group
PhD students engaged in research related to
biodiversity, ecosystem services and climate
Vision and Mission • To provide perspectives from natural science, social science and economics
• To improve student awareness of the discipline plurality needed in society to
drive sustainable (local, regional and global) development in the field of
environment and climate.
• To develop interdisciplinary training and give societal context, as well as to
promote improved communication skills, personal- and career development,
and in-depth intra-disciplinary understanding.
• To create and promote a network of peers and mentors. Contact: Anna Ekberg [email protected]
RA1 – ESM
development
climate-biosphere
interactions RA2 – learning from
the past
palaeoclimate & land
cover
RA4 – statistics
new methods for ESM
analysis and simulation
RA3 – particles
aerosol-cloud
parameterisations for
ESMs
Addressing the Research Challenges
The Four Linked Research Areas (RA) in MERGE
LPJ-GUESS DGVM
RCA-GUESS RCM
EC-Earth ESM
WRF RCM
LPJ-GUESS
Vegetation and land-use
reconstruction using REVEALS
Solar activity reconstructions
COSMO-wiso
LPJ-GUESS
Laboratory and field studies
EC-Earth (BVOC & SOA, TM5)
EMEP
ADCHEM
Landscape reconstruction using
Gaussian Markov Random Fields
Inverse modelling of CO2
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)
&
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)
IPCC AR5 Summary for
Policymakers (SPM)
RCP2.6
consistent with
2 ºC
Impact studies and biophysical feedbacks
• link structure to function, accounting for
feedbacks between them
• link ’fast’ (physiology, biogeochemistry)
and ’slow’ (demography, composition)
ecosystem processes
• account for transient ecosystem
dynamics when driving conditions
(climate, CO2) are changing rapidly
StructuresFunctions
space
time
Simulated natural
vegetation of Lithuania
LPJ-GUESS – global DGVM & ecosystem model*
Soil organic matter
Soil organic
matter & N
soil bio-
geochemistry
population dynamics
& disturbance
plant
biogeography
primary
production
& growth
Vegetation
PFTs / species
& Crops
Climate (historical & scenario)
land use/management
CO2
N-deposition
*e.g. Smith et al. 2001, 2014
Biome shifts are expected in the 21st century (RCP 8.5)
*Wårlind et al. 2014
Cover crop
Irrigation
Yearly cutting
Succession of abandoned farmland
PASTURE CROPLAND
NATURAL MGD. FOREST
Crop rotations
N limitation Land cover/land use
change (gross vs. net)
Continuous forestry
Daily grazing
Detailed forest management
Land use and management now treated in LPJ-GUESS*
*Lindeskog et al. 2013. Earth System Dynamics 4: 385-407
Olin et al. 2015. Biogeosciences 12: 2489-2515
*Olin et al. 2015. Earth System
Dynamics 6: 745-768
Projections of agricultural crop yields*
But! Offline studies miss feedbacks to climate via
changed land-atmosphere energy balance
Albedo (reflected sunlight) differs between forest and open land, especially during period of snow lie
LH
SH LH
SH
incoming
shortwave
radiation
outgoing
heat
Greater evaporative surface area of tall, dense vegetation enhances latent heat flux, reducing surface warming (Often deeper roots and greater roughness lengths too)
Slide: Ben Smith
Zhu et al. (2016), Nature Climate Change
Change in land surface greenness
1982-2009
Vegetation cover and productivity have increased
in concert with recent decades’ climate warming (< 1.5 ºC) and
CO2 increases
Recent greening trends have mitigated
background climate warming, mainly due
to increased evapotransipration
Trend attribution from models:
• CO2 fertilization (increased NPP)
• Climate change
• Nitrogen deposition
• Land cover change
High-latitude land cover patterns are already changing
due to impacts of climate (< 1.5 ºC) on vegetation
1912 2009
Treeline advance, Mt Nuolja, Sweden (Van Bogaert et al. 2011. J. Biogeog.) Shrubification of Alaska
Tape et al. 2006 Global Change Biology 12: 686
Soil organic
matter
Soil organic
matter
soil C dynamics
population
dynamics
& disturbance
migrationphenology
& growth
Vegetation
climateCO2CO2
Rossby Centre
Atmospheric Model
RCA3
temperature
radiation
soil water
RCA-GUESS: a regional Earth system model*
leaf area index annual
daily
fractional cover
- broadleaved forest
- needleleaved forest
- open land vegetation
daily
LPJ-GUESS v3 dynamic vegetation model
*Smith et al. 2011
Tellus 63A: 87-106
CO2
CH4
climate at
domain
boundaries
CO2
CH4
open loop for
biogeochemical
feedback
+ Multiple published studies for CORDEX Europe, Africa, Arctic, S. America
Projected vegetation change in the Arctic* coupled simulation (veg biophysical feedbacks included)
grass – tundra
Birch
Larch
Pine
Spruce
Forest
PFTs
100 yrs →
rela
tive c
over
(% L
AI)
LPJ-GUESS
RCA4
RCP
forcing
EC-EARTH
*W. Zhang et al.
GRL, 2018
*W. Zhang et al. GRL 2018
Projected feedbacks to surface air temperature*
LPJ-GUESS
RCA4
RCP
forcing
EC-EARTH
Additional temperature change due to vegetation feedback
(2071-2100)(1961-1990)
• Seasonality shift – longer growing season, earlier temperature peak
• Evaporative cooling evens out growing season temperature profile
Arctic vegetation feedbacks show the potential for
dynamic vegetation change to alter regional climate
• Seasonality shift – longer growing season, earlier temperature peak
• Evaporative cooling evens out growing season temperature profile
→ favours further shrub encroachment and treeline advance
→ Enhances the terrestrial C sink (Zhang et al. 2014)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
J F M A M J J A S O N D
(b)Tem
pera
ture
( C
)∆T ( C
) albedo feedback
evapotranspiration feedback
Additional temperature change
(2071-2100)(1961-1990)
*W. Zhang et al.
GRL 2018.
max
+1
mean among yrs
1
min
RCP 2.6
RCP 4.5
RCP 8.5
LPJ-GUESS
RCA4
RCP
forcing
EC-EARTH
MERGE & the EC-Earth Earth System Model –
making unique climate projections in CMIP6
No CMIP5 model included both dynamic vegetation and
carbon-nitrogen interactions
Ur IPCC 5:e Syntes “Summary for Policymakers”
RCP2.6
consistent with
2 ºC
LPJ-GUESS
Version 4
(vegetation dynamics) HTESSEL
(land surface)
NEMO
/LIM3
(ocean, sea ice)
Software
Coupler
LAI, high &
low vegetation
Vegetation cover
& types
Crops and pasture
temperature
radiation
Precipitation
Soil state IFS
(atmosphere)
Information
- Dynamic vegetation and terrestrial C & N
cycling in CMIP6
EC-Earth-Veg
CO2
CMIP6
External Forcing &
Boundary Conditions:
Land use
CO2 concentrations
N deposition
runoff Update vegetation and land
surface properties
CMIP6 Experimental Design
*Ciais et al. 2013, IPCC AR5
EC-Earth-Veg
MERGE commitments to CMIP6
EC-Earth DECK experiments to begin this month
fro
m E
yri
ng
et
al.
2015
C4MIP
LUMIP
& LS3MIP
PMIP4
ScenarioMIP
Riahi et al.,
Global LULCC scenarios Today (Mha)
• Forest: 4200
• Cropland: 1650
• Pasture: 3300
ScenarioMIP runs with EC-Earth-Veg
O’Neill et al, 2016
Expected to achieve 1.5 / 2 ºC
Towards better estimates of the remaining
carbon budgets in line with
ambitious temperature targets
*Ciais et al. 2013.
IPCC-AR5, Ben Smith
Glo
bal C
flu
x (
Gt C
yr
1)
Approx. 25% of C emissions Are taken up by terrestrial ecosystems due to surplus of photosynthesis relative to respiration and emissions from wildfires
The land and oceans currently take up about
50% of mankind’s annual CO2 emissions
Emissions: 400+/-20 GtC
Land use: 145+/-50 GtC
Atm: 230+/-5 GtC
Ocean: 155+/-20 GtC
Land: 160+/-60 GtC
Headline IPCC AR5 result: Temperature responds
nearly linearly to cumulative emissions (”TCRE”)
IPCC AR5 WG1 SPM
Policy relevant
uncertainty in
”allowable emissions”
2011-2100 CO2 emissions must be limited to meet
1.5 °C and 2 °C targets
Schellnhuber et al., 2016, IPCC 2018
Emitted by 2017: 2200 +/- 320 GtCO2
Annual emissions: 42 GtCO2
Remaining 1.5 ºC budgets:
50 % chance: 580 GtCO2
66 % chance: 420 GtCO2
CMIP6 Experimental Design
*Ciais et al. 2013, IPCC AR5
EC-Earth-Veg EC-Earth-CC
LPJ-GUESS
Version 4
(vegetation &
biogeochemistry)
HTESSEL
(land surface)
NEMO/PISCES
/LIM3
(ocean, sea ice,
BGC)
Software
Coupler
LAI, high &
low vegetation
Vegetation cover
& types
Crops and pasture
temperature
radiation
Precipitation
Soil state
NEE/CO2
[CO2]
IFS
(atmosphere)
TM5
(chemistry,
transport)
Information
Carbon Cycle
Global climate-carbon dynamics
and feedbacks
EC-Earth-CC
CO2
CMIP6
External Forcing &
Boundary Conditions:
Land use
CO2 emissions
N deposition
runoff
Carbon-climate
feedbacks
Update vegetation and land
surface properties
• Land Use Change (LUC) emissions were treated differently in the models
• Some AR5 models had dynamic vegetation
• Some AR5 models had nutrient (N) limitations on plant growth
• No AR5 model included dynamic vegetation AND C-N interactions
• More agreement as to the sign and approximate size of the ocean sink
Friedlingstein et al. 2014
J. Climate
LUC emissions prescribed
LUC emissions calculated
With N limitation on plant growth
An uncertain future for the terrestrial carbon sink 11 CMIP5 ESMs (RCP 8.5 CO2 emissions)
OCEAN
Land acts as a C sink
Realistic terrestrial C pools and fluxes EC-Earth-Veg Fully coupled simulation 1870-2015
LPJ-GUESS
Obs SST
& Sea ice
IFS
LUH2 &
N deposition D. Wårlind & L. Nieradzik (Lund Univ.)
NPP (GtC / yr)
Vegetation C (GtC)
Soil & Litter C (GtC)
• Most scenarios that meet the 1.5 C target include substantial
negative emission technologies (NET, incl. BECCS) and
agriculture and forestry/land use measures (AFOLU).
• EC-Earth-CC can be used to explore alternative pathways
The difficult paths to 2 ºC, or 1.5 ºC
IPCC SPM 2018
• Necessary BECCS and/or forestry practices (AR) will require the
use of substantial land area
• And result in as-yet unknown local climate feedbacks and other
conflicts
IPCC (2018): BECCS 0-16 GtCO2 / yr. AFOLU: 1-5 GtCO2 / yr
Mitigation conflicts
Smith et al. 2016
IDAG (Mha)
• Skog: 4200
• Odlad mark: 1650
• Bete: 3300
Today
Ca 10 GtC / yr
Lowe & Bernie 2018
Phil Trans. R. Soc. A
Biosphere-controlled non-CO2 atmospheric trace gases and aerosols
may generate significant feedbacks – sign and magnitude are uncertain
Consideration of biosphere-controlled non-CO2 atmospheric
trace gases and aerosols could reduce the remaining C budget still further
Lowe & Bernie 2018
Phil Trans. R. Soc. A
IPCC 2018 SPM:
50% Reduced budget
due to extra feedbacks
• Field studies, observations and modelling highlight the importance of
including detailed biosphere-atmosphere interactions in coupled
modelling frameworks
• So a modeller’s work is never done! We will soon include:
• Permafrost-carbon interactions and wetland CH4 emissions (LPJG
v4.1)
• Phosphorous limitation in addition to N important in the tropics
• Improved wildfire parameterizations (with BLAZE) (LPJG v4.1)
• Plant functional types (PFTs) must be added that can better quantify
the potential for bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to
mitigate climate change
• O3 damage, N2O, microbial processes, allocation improvements etc.
• LPJ-GUESS developments will be available to RCA-GUESS and
EC-Earth
Ongoing model improvements
Including permafrost
Observed
(Stores > 1600 GtC) LPJ-GUESS (1961-90)
LPJ-GUESS (1901-2014)
Figures:
Adrian Gustafson
Including methane
LPJ-GUESS (1901-2017)
g CH4 m-2 yr-1
Global CH4 emssions (2000-2017)
Figures:
Wenxin Zhang
MERGE for GAC 19-20 May 2010
Vegetation can also have a cooling effect on
climate through its influence on cloud
properties
Figure: Erik Swietlicki (Lund U)
Global temperature
Aerosol Optical Depth
Biota (Vegetation)
CCN
Biogenic VOC
Atmospheric particle
concentrations
Clouds
LPJ-GUESS BVOC emissions
LPJ-GUESS
Version 4.1
(vegetation &
BGC)
HTESSEL
(land surface)
NEMO/PISCES
/LIM3
(ocean, sea ice,
BGC)
Software
Coupler
LAI, high &
low vegetation
tile fraction
& types
Crops and pasture
temperature
radiation
Precipitation
Soil state
CH4, N2O, BVOC, NEE/CO2
[CO2]
IFS
(atmosphere)
TM5
(SOA, chemistry,
transport)
Implemented
ESM fluxes
ESM in H2020
CO2
External Forcing &
Boundary Conditions:
Land use
CO2 emissions
N deposition
runoff
Closed loop for
biogeochemical
feedbacks
Update albedo, roughness lengths,
root distribution
www.crescendoproject.eu
Goal – improved budget understanding
IPCC SPM 2018
MERGE for GAC 19-20 May 2010
Tack!