Mercosur & Chile Jean-Pierre Bernard · Argentina economic scenario Economic Activity Real GDP...

August 2019

Mercosur & Chile

Jean-Pierre Bernard

Brazil new political model ?

... hard to govern with the Parliament and Senate deciding

on their own, especially based on personal political interests

Bolsonaro, Brazil savior

or

fake southern Trump ?

Lula, swindler or victim ?

Note that a lot of parties leaders

from the whole political spectrum

also in jail due to “Lava jato”

Brazil recovering ?

Big brother taking advantage of EU divisions and Mercosur mess

Brazil reforms on their way despite lack of governance due to Constitution weaknesses

and President lack of preparation : Pensions almost done ; Taxes with a consensus ;

Administration requirements simplified ...

2 main candidate objectives far from going on : violence control and anti-corruption fight

International image at a low. Main problem today : UE recognition and Amazon fires

But 2019 PIB growth estimate at +0.4% with a population increase of +0.8% !

But important international investments announced : Nestlé, VW, Mercedes …

and France has been the main investor in Brazil during first semester of 2019

Argentina back to old politics ?

Not sure,

Alberto Fernández

is not Cristina Kirhner,

and seems moderate

Macri did not live up to his ambitions and of what was expected

And his last-minute movements to try to win October elections

can worsen the economic situation

GDP

Sources : IBGE, IMF, INDEC, WB, BCU

GDPUSD Bi % USD Bi % USD Bi % USD Bi %

2018 1,868 1.1% 519 -2.5% 298 4,0% 56 1.6%

2019E 0.4% -1.4% 2.4% 1.3%

Brazil Argentina Chile Uruguay

-6,00%

-4,00%

-2,00%

0,00%

2,00%

4,00%

6,00%

8,00%

10,00%

12,00%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E

Argentina

Brazil

Chile

Uruguay

Brazil economic scenario

Economic Activity

Real GDP growth - % 3,0 0,5 -3,5 -3,3 1,1 1,1 0,8 1,7

Nominal GDP - BRL bn 5.332 5.779 5.996 6.267 6.554 6.828 7.164 7.563

Nominal GDP - USD bn 2.468 2.455 1.800 1.797 2.053 1.868 1.853 1.935

Population 200,0 201,7 203,5 205,2 206,8 208,5 210,1 211,8

Per Capita GDP - USD 12.342 12.169 8.847 8.762 9.929 8.957 8.818 9.138

Nation-wide Unemployment Rate - year avg (*) 7,1 6,8 8,5 11,5 12,7 12,3 11,9 11,7

Nation-wide Unemployment Rate - year end (*) 6,8 7,1 9,6 12,7 12,4 12,2 11,8 11,6

Inflation

IPCA - % 5,9 6,4 10,7 6,3 2,9 3,7 3,6 3,6

IGP–M - % 5,5 3,7 10,5 7,2 -0,5 7,5 5,8 4,1

Interest Rate

Selic - eop - % 10,00 11,75 14,25 13,75 7,00 6,50 5,00 5,00

Balance of Payments

BRL / USD - eop 2,36 2,66 3,96 3,26 3,31 3,88 3,80 4,00

Trade Balance - USD bn 2 -4 20 48 67 58 61 53

Current Account - % GDP -3,2 -4,1 -3,0 -1,3 -0,3 -0,8 -0,8 -1,8

Direct Investment (liabilities) - % GDP 2,8 3,9 4,2 4,4 3,4 4,7 4,6 5,1

International Reserves - USD bn 376 374 369 372 382 387 387 387

Public Finances

Primary Balance - % GDP 1,7 -0,6 -1,9 -2,5 -1,7 -1,6 -0,9 -1,2

Nominal Balance - % GDP -3,0 -6,0 -10,2 -9,0 -7,8 -7,1 -5,9 -5,6

Gross Public Debt - % GDP 51,5 56,3 65,5 69,9 74,1 77,2 78,2 79,9

Net Public Debt - % GDP 30,6 33,1 36,0 46,2 51,6 54,2 57,4 59,6

20182017 2019F 2020F2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: IMF, Bloomberg, IBGE, BCB, Haver and Itaú

(*) Nation-wide Unemployment Rate measured by PNADC

Brazil

Argentina economic scenario

Economic Activity

Real GDP growth (Private Estimates) - % 2,4 -2,5 2,7 -1,8 2,9 -2,5 -1,4 2,5

Nominal GDP - USD bn 611 564 642 557 642 519 476 498

Population 42,2 42,7 43,1 43,6 44,0 44,5 44,9 45,4


Unemployment Rate - year avg 7,1 7,3 6,5 8,5 8,3 9,2 10,5 10,0

Inflation

CPI % (*) 26,6 38,0 26,9 41,0 24,8 47,6 40,0 30,0

Interest Rate

BADLAR - eop - % 21,6 20,4 27,3 19,9 23,3 49,5 42,5 29,8

Reference rate - eop - % (****) - - - 24,8 28,8 59,3 50,0 35,0

Balance of Payments

ARS / USD - eop 6,52 8,55 13,01 15,85 18,77 37,81 52,00 64,00

Trade Balance - USD bn 1,5 3,1 -3,0 2,0 -8,5 -3,8 7,5 5,5


Foreign Direct Investment - % GDP 1,6 0,9 1,8 0,6 1,9 2,0 1,5 2,0

International Reserves - USD bn 30,6 31,4 25,6 38,8 55,1 65,8 67,0 67,0

Public Finances

Primary Balance - % GDP (**) -2,4 -3,4 -4,0 -4,2 -3,8 -2,6 -0,5 0,0

Nominal Balance - % GDP (**) -2,0 -2,4 -3,9 -5,8 -5,9 -5,2 -3,8 -3,3

Gross Public Debt - % GDP 46,6 47,4 55,5 55,6 59,0 89,7 86,8 80,9

Net Public Debt - % GDP (***) 23,0 22,0 25,4 27,6 31,5 56,9 56,2 53,2

(*) National CPI for 2017 and 2018.

(**) Excludes central bank transfer of profits from 2016.

(***) Excludes central bank and social security holding.

(****) Lebac 35-day for 2016, 7-day Repo rate for 2017 and 7-day Leliq rate for 2018 and 2019.

Sources: Central Bank, INDEC and Itaú

20152013Argentina 2014 2020F2019F2017 20182016

Chile economic scenario

Economic Activity

Real GDP growth - % 4,0 1,8 2,3 1,7 1,3 4,0 2,4 2,9

Nominal GDP - USD bn 275 257 239 255 280 298 292 311

Population 17,6 17,8 18,0 18,2 18,4 18,8 19,1 19,5


Unemployment Rate - year avg 5,9 6,4 6,2 6,5 6,7 7,0 7,0 7,2

Inflation

CPI - % 3,0 4,6 4,4 2,7 2,3 2,6 2,8 2,9

Interest Rate

Monetary Policy Rate - eop - % 4,50 3,00 3,50 3,50 2,50 2,75 2,00 2,00

Balance of Payments

CLP / USD - eop 525 606 709 670 615 694 685 685

Trade Balance - USD bn 2,0 6,5 3,4 4,9 7,4 4,7 3,8 3,4


Foreign Direct Investment - % GDP 7,6 9,2 8,8 4,8 2,1 2,0 2,9 1,9

International Reserves - USD bn 41,1 40,4 38,6 40,5 39,0 39,9 40,3 40,7

Public Finances

Nominal Balance - % GDP -0,6 -1,6 -2,1 -2,7 -2,7 -1,6 -2,1 -1,8

Net Public Debt - % GDP -5,6 -4,3 -3,4 0,9 4,4 5,7 7,3 8,4Source: IMF, Bloomberg, BCCh, INE, Haver and Itaú

2013Chile 2014 2019F2017F2016 2020F2015 2018

Brazil Political & Economical Environment

Threats and opportunities • The economy is very slowly emerging from a three-year recession. Activity

ended 2018 with an 1.1% increase, and will end 2019 with a lesser value

(0.4% ?).

• The Trade Agreement between Mercosur and EU just signed, even though

only at its first stage of approval and effectiveness gives a positive sign. It

foresees an increase of agricultural exports from Mercosur to Europe

(specially sugar and meat) and of industrial imports from Europe (automobile

sector, wine and other transformed foodstuff …).

• The pension reform so necessary as a first step for recovery is coming up.

• The fiscal reform (asked for during the last 25 years) although on the political

programs of all Presidential candidates in 2018 has much opposition from a

majority of states (since it would limit their autonomy) but is on the way to

reach a consensus since there is no more money available.

Brazil Political & Economical Environment

Threats and opportunities

Same crossroads as last year

Short term

Agribusiness, Automotive,

Health, NTIC

Infrastructure, O&G,

Transformation industry

Renewable Energy,

HealthCare & Life Sciences

Short Term

Medium Term

Short term

Industry in general

Construction

Stagnant sectors in Brazil

Short Term

Growing sectors in Brazil

EXPORTERS & IMPORTERS Exporters in TEUs to North Europe (Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands)

BRAZIL

TEU totals for 12 months ending 2019-03

BR1 Shpr/Cons Anvers Hambourg Le Havre Rotterdam Totals

KUEHNE & NAGEL 5.555 3.240 1.782 2.487 13.064

BRASKEM SA 10.324 2 10 18 10.354

DB SCHENKER 3.765 2.052 232 2.319 8.368

SEARA ALIMENTOS 2 716 - 6.074 6.792

NOVA ERA CONSULTORIA ADUANEIRA - 94 - 4.594 4.688

JTI PROCESSADORA DE TABACO DO BRASIL 3.810 - - - 3.810

COMMANDER LOGISTICA 3.371 - - 236 3.607

SCANIA LATIN AMERICA 111 4 - 3.028 3.143

COOPERATIVA REGIONAL DE CAFEIC EM GUAXUPE LTDA COOXUPE 765 1.987 58 186 2.996

CONFIDENCE ASSESSORIA EM COMERCIO EXTERIOR 2.502 2 - 382 2.886

UNIVERSAL LEAF TABACOS 1.394 921 328 112 2.755

WEG EQUIPAMENTOS ELETRICOS SA 316 316 9 1.624 2.265

EXPOMAR ASSESSORIA DE DESPACHO DE EXPORT. & IMPORT. - - 14 2.167 2.181

CJ SELECTA SA - - 70 2.096 2.166

DHL GLOBAL FORWARDING 510 235 363 1.045 2.153

PHILIP MORRIS BRASIL INDUSTRIA & COMERCIO 1.528 - - 274 1.802

GERDAU SA 1.683 - - 98 1.781

JBS SA 278 652 7 821 1.758

BRF SA - 21 136 1.539 1.696

MANUPORT LOGISTICS 859 195 60 472 1.585

Foreign Port

EXPORTERS & IMPORTERS Importers in TEUs from North Europe (Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands)

BRAZIL

TEU totals for 12 months ending 2019-03

BR1 Shpr/Cons Anvers Hambourg Le Havre Rotterdam Totals

MERCEDES BENZ DO BRASIL 11.264 8.979 - - 20.243

PANALPINA 14.323 3.170 369 760 18.621

DB SCHENKER 2.824 7.493 517 3.005 13.839

KUEHNE & NAGEL 4.572 6.413 407 914 12.306

RENAULT DO BRASIL SA 324 3.256 5.531 - 9.111

VOLVO DO BRASIL VEICULOS 7.176 148 130 - 7.454

BMW DO BRASIL 3.151 3.737 - - 6.888

DHL GLOBAL FORWARDING 2.622 2.460 1.206 346 6.634

AGILITY LOGISTICS 2.919 2.691 174 472 6.256

CONDIGEL SEAFRIGO EFBS GROUP 3.322 778 652 85 4.837

FIORDE LOGISTICA INTERNACIONAL 1.220 1.019 16 2.418 4.673

INDAIA LOGISTICA INTERNACIONAL 2.970 1.274 286 92 4.622

DSV TRANSPORT & LOGISTICS CO 1.295 2.529 426 65 4.315

VOLKSWAGEN DO BRASIL 1.493 2.751 - - 4.244

GEFCO LOGISTICS GROUP 43 747 3.207 127 4.124

RENTAL LOGISTICA & TRANSPORTE 2.299 3 - 1.762 4.064

LESCHACO GROUP 925 2.333 3 765 4.026

MANUPORT LOGISTICS 2.505 23 233 262 3.023

JAS FORWARDING WORLDWIDE 1.815 747 364 66 2.991

CATERPILLAR BRASIL 2.739 40 - - 2.779

Foreign Port

EXPORTERS & IMPORTERS Exporters in TONs to North Europe (Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands)

ARGENTINA

Totals in tons

Exporters Germany Belgium France Netherlands

ACEITERA GENERAL DEHEZA S A 8.800 99.923 353.670 462.393

OLEAGINOSA MORENO HNOS S A C I F I A 93.920 12.000 341.265 447.185

VICENTIN S A I C 34.500 299.791 334.291

CARGILL SOCIEDAD ANONIMA COMERCIAL E INDUSTRIAL 101.788 40.000 141.079 282.867

MOLINOS AGRO S.A. 243.931 243.931

LDC ARGENTINA S A 61.500 4.530 176.250 242.280

AGENCIA MARITIMA DULCE S A 233.074 233.074

AGENCIA MARITIMA N A B S A S A 168.336 40.525 208.861

BUNGE ARGENTINA S A 26.832 110.900 137.732

YPF SOCIEDAD ANONIMA 550 9.635 15.311 103.104 128.600

NIDERA SOCIEDAD ANONIMA 128.140 128.140

HAMBURG SUD SUCURSAL ARGENTINA 5.216 76.504 953 1.335 84.008

MEDITERRANEAN SHIPPING COMPANY S A 6.838 45.335 6.684 23.147 82.004

COPETRO SOCIEDAD COLECTIVA 60.143 60.143

F.G.F. TRAPANI S.R.L. 9.052 9.693 32.438 51.182

COMPA?IA MEGA SOCIEDAD ANONIMA 32.500 32.500

OLEGA S A C I I A Y F 2.864 626 505 26.484 30.479

INAGRO SA 25.010 4.500 29.510

PATAGONIAN FRUITS TRADE SA 10.090 2.573 9.208 21.872

SALENTEIN FRUIT SOCIEDAD ANONIMA 14.621 14.621

CountriesTotal

EXPORTERS & IMPORTERS Importers in TONs from North Europe (Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands)

ARGENTINA

Totals in tons

Exporters Germany Belgium France Netherlands

YARA ARGENTINA SA 4.447 22 146.583 151.052

YPF SOCIEDAD ANONIMA 6.347 2.041 2.060 139.252 149.701

SHELL CIA ARGENTINA DE PETROLEO S A 4.045 61.341 384 75.542 141.312

PAN AMERICAN ENERGY LLC SUCURSAL ARGENTINA 2.368 1.057 650 100.025 104.100

EMERGER FERTILIZANTES SOCIEDAD ANONIMA 21.677 21.677

BASF ARGENTINA S A 14.431 1.950 836 509 17.727

MERCEDESBENZ ARGENTINA SOCIEDAD ANONIMA 16.437 2 59 5 16.502

GONVARRI ARGENTINA S.A. 4.586 9.852 532 14.970

DIA ARGENTINA S A 11.044 280 1.299 155 12.777

TRANSCLOR S A 10.093 1 10.093

PETROIL PETROLEO Y DERIVADOS SA 9.885 9.885

COMPA#IA ADMINIST DEL MERCADO MAYORISTA ELECTRICO 7.595 7.595

TOTAL ESPECIALIDADES ARGENTINA SOCIEDAD ANONIMA 4.426 541 2.168 7.134

ALUAR ALUMINIO ARGENTINO S.A. INDUSTRIAL 2.516 0 4.390 135 7.041

UNILEVER DE ARGENTINA S A 4.570 5 1.034 1.234 6.843

GENNEIA VIENTOS DEL SUDOESTE S.A. 6.508 6.508

ATANOR SOCIEDAD EN COMANDITA POR ACCIONES 5.026 153 129 5.308

MASISA ARGENTINA S.A. 5.084 1 5.085

TOREDO SA 1.643 154 2.936 254 4.987

SIMPLOT ARGENTINA S R L. 75 494 4.375 4.944

CountriesTotal

EXPORTERS & IMPORTERS Exporters In TONs to North Europe (Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands)

CHILE

Totals for 2018 in tons

Exporters Germany Belgium France Netherlands Total

CMPC CELULOSA S.A. 34.295 73.740 278.885 386.919

SQM INDUSTRIAL S.A. 10.179 186.814 196.993

SQM SALAR S.A. 27.889 87.526 115.416

CODELCO CHILE 2.505 4.504 88.334 19.522 114.865

K+S CHILE S.A. 77.000 35.200 112.200

CIA MINERA CARMEN DE ANDACOLLO 98.337 165 98.501

MINERA INVIERNO S.A. 78.531 78.531

CELULOSA ARAUCO Y CONST.S.A. 75.423 75.423

NO DETERMINADO 910 2.239 7.381 23.754 34.284

METHANEX CHILE S.A. 31.488 31.488

PANELES ARAUCO S.A. 175 5.021 168 18.082 23.446

FRUTERA SAN FERNANDO S.A. 7.178 533 14.245 21.956

CARTULINAS CMPC S.A. 3.928 16.318 20.246

EXPORTADORA PROPAL S.A. 394 346 18.587 19.328

CIA.MIN.DONA INES COLLAHUASI S 17.026 17.026

MINERA LOS PELAMBRES 11.448 4.338 15.786

EMPRESAS CAROZZI S.A. 8.069 494 5.811 14.374

EXPORTADORA UNIFRUTTI TRADERS 2.026 731 11.591 14.348

SOC AGRICOLA Y COMERCIAL LTDA 102 14.229 14.331

EAGON LAUTARO SOCIEDAD ANONIMA 297 2.911 9.966 13.174

Countries

EXPORTERS & IMPORTERS Importers in TONs from North Europe (Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands)

CHILE

Totals for 2018 in tons

Exporters Germany Belgium France Netherlands Total

PEUGEOT CHILE S.A. 1.628.036 160 1.628.197

KABSA S.A. 17.201 35.111 52.312

ALIMENTOS Y FRUTOS S.A. 32.956 32.956

SODIMAC S.A. 508 625 27.351 19 28.503

AGRO CIAL. TERRAMAR CHILE 1.234 22.894 184 24.312

COMERCIAL KAUFMANN S.A. 197 21.845 22.043

GLENCORE CHILE S.A. 18.654 18.654

ANGLO AMERICAN NORTE S.A. 18.375 18.375

COMERCIALIZ.NUTRECO CHILE 5.290 1.421 2.762 5.866 15.340

VINA FRANCISCO DE AGUIRRE S.A. 3 15.155 15.158

FCA.PAV.REV.BUDNIK HNOS.S.A. 380 12.035 738 13.153

WATT S S.A. 11.425 9 471 40 11.944

FERTILIZANTES COMPO AGRO CHILE 21 11.718 11.739

AGROGESTION VITRA 6.400 2.824 2.400 11.623

SOQUIMICH COMERCIAL S.A. 1.490 10.069 11.559

SOLVAY PEROXIDO D/ANDES IND. COM. 10.976 10.976

ANTALIS CHILE 65 36 10.513 67 10.681

BASF CHILE S.A. 643 363 9.153 121 10.279

CITROEN CHILE S.A.C. 10.273 10.273

CENCOSUD RETAIL S.A. 119 289 9.571 228 10.206

Countries

HAROPA IN THE MEDIA

HAROPA as seen by Brazilian international commerce stakeholders

100

• 99% of the companies that already used the port of Le Havre are very satisfied with the services, being in terms of Costs, Reliability and Promptness

• HAROPA image as a port alliance is not yet consolidated, and use to be a new fact for decision makers

• Le Havre is well known as the main French port, however Rouen and Paris ports are not usually known in Brazil

• People get very impressed about HAROPA green initiatives, and about the Seine river utilization as a hinterland modal alternative

• People who get to know personally (see Antaq people who visited HAROPA) our premises are really impressed by HAROPA organization

• Conclusion : we need to amplify our communication today restricted to person-to-person contacts and newsletters few people read today due to avalanche of daily e-mails …

Mercosur & Chile Jean-Pierre Bernard · Argentina economic scenario Economic Activity Real GDP...

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