Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez

16 May 2012

The concentration of GHGs is rising

Long-term implications for the climate and for

crop suitability

The approach

Modelling changes in crop suitability

It evaluates on monthly basis if there are adequate climatic conditions within a growing season for temperature and precipitation… …and calculates the climatic suitability of the

resulting interaction between rainfall and temperature…

EcoCrop: how does it work?

Input dataModel training•Present-day climates from WorldClim

= Interpolations of observed data, representative of 1950-2000

•Crop distribution data (GBIF, GENESYS, other sources)•An idea of the crop’s ecology, its distribution, and growing season duration•Some literature reviewModel projection•24 different climate models (2030, SRES-A1B), to sample uncertaintiesAdaptation strategy testing•Genetic adaptation by extending ecological ranges

Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050

Preliminary analyses (~2009)Crop suitability is changing….

New analysis:27 crops

Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez

Potato Current Suitability

Killing temperature (°C) -0.80

Minimum absolute temperature (°C) 3.75

Minimum optimum temperature (°C) 12.40

Maximum optimum temperature (°C) 17.80

Maximum absolute temperature (°C) 24.00

Growing season (days) 120

Minimum absolute rainfall (mm) 150.00

Minimum optimum rainfall (mm) 251.25

Maximum optimum rainfall (mm) 326.50

Maximum absolute rainfall (mm) 785.50

Potato Current Suitability and Presence

Potato Current Climatic Constraints

Potato Future Suitability and Change

2030s SRES-A1B

2030s SRES-A1B

Water availability Temperatures

Potato Breeding Priorities

Potato regional impacts

AND Andean Region NAM North America

BRA Brazil NEU North Europe

CACCen. America and Caribean SAF South Africa

CAF Central Africa SAHSahel

CAS Central Asia SASSouth Asia

CEU Central Europe SEA Southeast Asia

EAS East Asia SEU South Europe

EAF East Africa WAF West AfricaEEU East Europe WEU West EuropeWAS West Asia OCE Oceania

NAF North Africa SAM South Latin America

Suitability changes World Crop Comparison

Suitability changes Crop Comparison in Africa

Suitability changes Crop Comparison in Latin America

& Caraïbes

amkn.org

Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change 1

one>> Spotlight on: The Climate Analogue Tool

Thank you.E-mail: f.mer@cgiar.org