Mekong ARCC - Final Workshop - Agriculture Study
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Transcript of Mekong ARCC - Final Workshop - Agriculture Study
Climate change vulnerability
and adaptation assessment for
agriculture
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Study Bangkok 28 March 2013
ICEM – International Centre for Environmental Management
Olivier Joffre Dang Kieu Nhan
Bun Chantrea Jorma Koponen
1a
Contents
1. Overview of the methodology 2. Baseline – Agriculture in the Lower Mekong Basin 3. Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability
Assessment i. Changes in Basin-wide crop suitability ii. Changes in Hot Spot Crop yields iii. Vulnerability assessment for key crops in hot spots
4. Adaptation Options
2
Overview of the
methodology
3a
Agriculture Vulnerability Assessment process
EXPOSURE SENSITIVTY X = IMPACT ADAPTIVE CAPACITY / VULNERABILITY =
4
AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS BASELINE
Key Crop Species
Farming systems characterization
MEKONG HYDROCLIMATE MODELLING & ASSESSMENT
Crop Yield modelling
Crop suitability modelling
Sector assessment
Changes in climate & hydrology
Expert Consultation
Review of Past
experience
ADAPTATION
1
2 3
4
5
6
7
8
Basin wide assessment approach • Identified 8 hotspot provinces
representing each of the 12 ecozones • Developed farming system profiles for
each ecozone – Subsistence farming (small-scale) – Commercial farming (small & large
scale) • Identified key crops for subsistence &
commercial agriculture – Rice – Cassava – Maize – Rubber – Coffee – Sugarcane – Soya
1. Chiang Rai 2. Sakon Nakhon 3. Khammoun 4. Champassak 5. Mondolkiri 6. Gia Lai 7. Kampong Thom 8. Kien Giang
5
Agriculture
Baseline Assessment
6a
Agriculture in the LMB - Livelihoods:
- 65 million people - 45% of population are considered poor - 70% of population’s livelihoods rely on
agriculture
- Changes in productivity of subsistence and commercial cropping systems will influence:
- Local livelihoods - Rural and national economies - Regional food security
7
Rapid growth in LMB agriculture
• Agriculture is a dynamic sector. • The production of the major crops has doubled in the last 20
years, primarily due to: • intensification of production, with higher yields rather
than larger cultivated areas. • Some new areas for cultivation are opening in Lao PDR,
the Vietnamese Central Highlands and Cambodia
8
Agriculture in the LMB remains reliant on rainfall • Key staple crops are predominately rain-fed, • Other emerging commercial crops (maize, soya or cassava) are also mostly
rain-fed. • LMB agriculture is highly sensitive on climate and especially on rainfall
frequency and distribution.
9
Source: MRC 2011
Farming systems in the LMB 1. Rice-based farming systems
• Rainfed rice (75% of total agricultural area) • Upland rainfed rice • Lowland rainfed rice
• Irrigated rice 2. Other annual crops: vegetables,
maize, soya, cassava, sugarcane, etc.
3. Perennial crops 1. Industrial crops: black pepper,
coffee, rubber, etc. 2. Fruits
Annual
Rice
Perennial
10
LMB Farming systems
11
Intensive Rice Rubber Coffee Sugarcane Soya
Rainfed rice Cassava Maize
Lowland rainfed & irrigated rice
Subsistence Commercial
Smallholder Small-Large holder Shifting Plantation
Trend
• Diverse growing conditions have led to the development of diverse farming systems
• General historic trend towards larger farm holds and commercial farms
12
Provinces Ecozones Rice Cassava Maize Soya Sugarcane Coffee Rubber
Chiang rai High-Mid-Low, Floodplains
X X X X
Sakon Nakhon Mid & Low elevation
X X X X
Khammouane High & Low elevation
X X X X X
Champasak High-Low, Floodplains
X X X X X
Mondulkiri Mid & Low elevation
X X X X
Kampong Thom
Low elevation, Floodplains
X X X X
Gia Lai High & Low elevation
X X X X X X
Kien Giang Delta swamp X
Key crop distribution in hot spot provinces
Baseline assessment – Summary findings Crops Systems Locations Trends
(area) Existing
problems Growth drivers and
Impact Upland rice Subsistence High-mid
elevation Increase
(Lao PDR) Drought
Flash Flood • Population growth • Urbanization (labour,
food demand, land and water use)
• Market demands and foreign investments (animal feed, bio-fuel, rubber, etc.)
• Nation food security & export policies
• Natural resource degradation and environmental changes
Lowland rice Subsistence – Commercial
Mid & Low
elevation & delta
Decline Rainfed
(Increase irrigated)
Drought, flood, salinity intrusion
Annual commercial crops
(Subsistence) – Commercial
High-low elevation
Changing with crops and areas
Drought, soil erosion, flood
Perennial industrial crops
Commercial High-mid elevation
Increase Drought, groundwater
depletion, soil erosion
Fruits Commercial Delta Stable Flooding, salinity intrusion
Basin wide Crop
suitability assessment
14a
Climate suitability model
• LUSET – Land use suitability evaluation tool (IRRI) • Evaluates the suitability of each land unit (grid cell) for a single
type of land use type (single crop). • For each location suitability is based on climatological
characteristics such as rainfall, drought and temperature • Each crop has its special requirements • Suitability is expressed with a scale of 0 - 100 and transformed
into suitablity classes
Crop Tolerances
16
Crop parameter unitCassava annual rainfall mm/a
drought monthsmean T Cmean daily max T Cannual rainfall mm/adrought monthsmean T Cmean daily max T Cav daily min T of the coldest month C
Maize growing cycle rainfall mm/cyclefirst month rainfall mm/monthsecond month rainfall mm/monththird month rainfall mm/monthfourth month rainfall mm/monthfifth month rainfall mm/monthgrowing cycle T Cgrowing cycle mean daily min T Crainfall in first months mm/monthrainfall in ripening stage mm/monthgrowing cycle T Cav daily max T of the warmest month Csecond month T Cav daily min T of the coldest month C
Rubber annual rainfall mm/adrought monthsmean T Cmean daily max T C
Soya growing cycle rainfall mm/cyclefirst month rainfall mm/monthsecond month rainfall mm/monththird month rainfall mm/monthfourth month rainfall mm/monthgrowing cycle T Cgrowing cycle mean daily min T C
Coffee Robusta
Rain fed rice
Rubber
Coffee
Cassava
Hotspot crop
yield assessment
20a
Rain fed rice yield • Increase in Eastern
Khorat Plateau + 5% – 20% • Driver: increased
rainfall
Baseline Change in 2050
Average annual rainfed rice yields in the selected provinces
Baseline (t/ha)
% Change in 2050
Change in production
(tons)
Chiang Rai 3.4 -4.8 - 30,000
Sakon Nakhon 2.1 4.6 + 27,000
Khammouane 3.4 -0.1 Not significant
Champasack 2.9 -5.6 - 11,000
Gia Lai 3.3 -12.6 - 20,000
Mondulkiri 2.1 -3.0 -1,114
Kampong Thom
2.2 -3.6 - 15,000
Average annual maize yields in the selected provinces
Baseline (t/ha)
Change by 2050 (%)
Change in production (tons)
Chang Rai 4.22 -3.13 - 6,500
Khammouane 4.74 -5.03 <1,000
Champasack 5.08 -5.55 -2,000
Gia Lai 3.54 -12.09 - 24,000
Kampong Thom
3.06 -5.97 <1,000
Vulnerability
assessment for key crops
Hot Spots
24a
Key climate change threats
1.Increase in temperature 2.Increase in precipitation 3.Decrease in precipitation 4.Decrease in water availability 5.Increase in water availability 6.Droughts in the rainy season 7.Flooding 8.Flash flood 9.(CO2 fertilization)
25
Assessment criteria:
Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity • Change in magnitude
of hydroclimate parameters
• Change in frequency and duration of the change
Physiological crop tolerances i.e. comfort zones
Internal factors: • biophysical factors (tolerant crops,
soil, water,…) External factors: • Farmer’s capacity – farming
technologies and accessibility to services
• Support systems: extension services, infrastructure, institution, etc
26
CHAMPASSAK PROVINCE CASE STUDY OVERVIEW
27
Current farming systems
28
0
30
60
90
Rai
nfed
ric
eIrr
igat
ed
rice
Mai
ze
Cas
sava
Soy
a
Cof
fee
Rub
berA
rea
(103
ha)
• Largest land holdings in Lao PDR (2.1ha per HH) with rice as main crop – >70% lowland rainfed rice cultivated
during the wet season – <20%farmers cultivate both in dry and
wet season. • Lowland rice supplemented with
additional rainfed crops for subsistence (chilli, banana, sweet potato, beans etc...)
• Small holder coffee is dominant in the Bolovens plateau
• Cassava culture is booming, based on smallholder and contract farming
• Rubber concessions cover large areas
Key climate change threats for Robusta coffee Climate Change Threats
Sensitivity
Increased temperature
High temperature (> 32oC) in the dry season affects coffee growth and production
Increased rainfall Optimal water supply is 1750 mm/year, with high suitability ranging from 1600 to 2400 mm and a dry period for flower initiation in March-April
Decreased rainfall Decreased precipitation during dry season causes water stress. Drought Long dry spells (> 20 days) can affect the production due to water stress
Flash floods Flash floods (> 250 mm/day) in upland and/or upstream areas that creates a sudden water level rise (rivers, stream) and carries debris, damaging coffee plant/production.
Storms Coffee can suffer from strong winds flash flood generated by storms.
CO2 increase Increase of CO2 might have an impact on growth and water use efficiency
29
Projected changes in temperature 2050
30
Champassak Summary Vulnerability Assessment
40% increase in proportion of dry season >32°C
Effects of increased temperature on coffee
Exposure: Very high • 80% of days with Ave. Max. temp. > 32ºC in Jan – Nov, • 20% of days with extreme max. temp > 36ºC in Jan – Oct.
Sensitivity: Medium High dry season temperatures can increase evapotranspiration and increase water stress Impact: High Reduced productivity Adaptive Capacity: Medium -Internal capacity: Medium -External capacity: High; shade-management practice Vulnerability Score: High
31
Threat: High temperature (> 32oC) in the dry season affects coffee growth and production
Champassak - Summary of vulnerability for key crops
CC threat Irrigated rice
Lowland rainfed rice
maize Cassava Rubber coffee
Increased temperature High High Medium Medium Medium High
Increased rainfall Low Medium High High Low High
Decreased rainfall Medium Medium Low Medium
Droughts Low Low Low Medium Medium
Flooding Low Medium Medium Medium
Flash floods Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium
Storms Low High Medium High Medium High
CO2 increase Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium
Summary of VA for key crops: high vulnerability Provinces Rainfed
rice Irrigated rice Cassava Maize Soya Sugar-
cane Coffee Rubber
Chiang Rai High (temp)
Medium Medium High (temp)
Sakon Nakhon
High (temp)
High (rain, flood)
Medium High (temp)
Kham-mouane
High (temp, storm)
Medium High (rain, storm)
High (rain,
storm)
High (rain, storm)
Medium
Cham -pasak
High (temp, storm)
High (temp)
High (rain, storm)
High (rain)
High (temp, rain,
storm)
Medium
Mondulkiri High (Storm)
High (storm)
High (rain, storm)
Medium
Kampong Thom
High (temp, flood)
High (temp, flood)
High (flood)
High (lower water,
temp, flood)
Medium
Gia Lai High (temp)
High (temp)
High (flood, flash
flood)
High (storm,
flash flood)
Medium High (temp)
Medium
Kien Giang High (SLR,
salinity)
Medium-High (SLR,
salinity,temp)
Vulnerability Assessment Conclusions
34a
35
• Both rainfed and irrigated rice are highly vulnerable to:
• increased temperature in the wet season • salinity intrusion (in the delta)
• Altitude shift for Robusta coffee, rubber and cassava:
• Become more suitable in northern parts with an increase in temperature
• Suffer from droughts and a decrease in water availability in central parts
• Cassava, soya and maize: less suitable with an increase in rainfall in the wet season and more frequent storm.
• Annual rainfed crops, (specially soya) are more vulnerable to increase rainfall during the harvest period
36
• Coffee is highly vulnerable to increased
temperature in the wet season • Rubber and sugarcane are relatively robust
crops to changes in climatic parameters • Effect of increased rainfall in the wet season
on rainfed rice: • Negative impact in “wet” areas like
Champasak, Khammouane, Gia Lai. • Positive impacts in a “dry” area like
Sakon Nakhon.
Adaptation
Options
37a
source:Proximity
Adaptation approach based on improving resilience of farming system
38
Improve rainfed and irrigated system and reduce vulnerability
to hazard Improve water
efficiency and water management
techniques
Improve soil management and soil
fertility in plains, plateau and uplands
Agriculture technique to mitigate GhG
Diversification of cropping system
ADAPTATION Strategies
Improve weather forecast for farm
planning
Adaptation option for Rice Based Systems • New varieties and risk management strategies
– Shorter varieties/ early maturation varieties to avoid the flood or allow a double rice crop
– Tolerant varieties: • “Scuba rice” (tolerant to flood) • Varieties tolerant to drought for dry spell • Varieties to tolerant to Heat and salinity (coastal zone)
Adoption by farmers in Cambodia: using multiple varieties to spread the risk.
• Diversification with cash crops : Short term crop following the monsoon crop based on residual moisture
39
Adaptation option for Rice Based Systems
• “System of Rice Intensification” – Based on principles of improved
management of your rice field – Diversity or practices and gradual
adoption of the technical packages
– Improved water, fertilizers and labour uses and improved yield;
– Reduce the vulnerability to climatic event (storm, drought)
– Reduce GhG in irrigated systems
40
source:Africare 2010
Access to Irrigation
• Groundwater/ Small scale water storage – Dry season crop (small dam in
Cambodia enabling double rice crop) – Supplementary irrigation (mini ponds
in Bangladesh) – Diversification with intensive
homestead gardening (Drip irrigation in Cambodia, Myanmar)
41
source:UNDP 2011
Water Saving technology and Rain water Harvesting
• Reducing flooding rice field to alternate flood/dry rice fields
• Green mulch technique + clays to improve water retention
• Rainwater Harvesting – in tanks or ponds – Multipurpose: supplementary
irrigation, double cropping, horticulture (drip irrigation) or domestic water uses
42
source:Proximity
Soil & fertility management
• Maximum yield is far from being reach • Commercial mono-agriculture: destruction of
soil structure
• Potential options: – “Urea Deep placement” for a better
efficiency of the fertilizer. – SRI approach reduce the use of fertilizer – Conservation agriculture improve soil
structure, increase organic matter in the soil and promote nutrient availability for the crop
43 source:CIRAD
source: IFDC
A Climate Change resilient rural community (adapted from IDe _Cambodia)
44
1. Dynamic • Enhanced capacity to change • Information access (about the change and solutions)
2. Diversified
• Within and outside the farming enterprise
3. Technically well skilled • Access to advice and inputs Provide the farming community with a variety of options that can be employed depending on the climate conditions
Requires an In depth Analysis of Community Vulnerability and needs before any intervention
• Design adaptation option(s) at the community level
– Need to acknowledge the diversity
of agricultural practices and agro-ecosystem at the community level
– Need to take into account the past and current interventions
– In depth assessment of local community farming system vulnerabilities.
45