[Mekong ARCC] Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study for Natural and Agricultural Systems
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Transcript of [Mekong ARCC] Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study for Natural and Agricultural Systems
Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study for natural and agricultural systems
Jeremy Carew-Reid, ICEM – International Centre for Environmental Management
www.icem.com.au
September 2012 Hanoi 1a
Climate changes
Hydrological changes
Agricultural zones
Ecological zones
Species “zones”
Commercial crops
Subsistence crops
Traditional crops
Aqua-culture
Crop wild relatives
NTFPs Wild fish catch
Adaptation options
Wildlife Live- stock
Assessing climate change threats to agriculture and subsistence livelihoods
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Agro-ecological systems and climate change vulnerability continuum
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ICEM, 2012
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Transition from subsistence to commercial agriculture
Intermediate Commercial
Land consolidation
Increased capital
intensity
Small holdings
Labourintensive
Low capital
intensity
Commercial farms and
plantations
Subsistence
Industrialization, rural-urban migration
Climate change shiftsRegular climate
1. Geographic shifts – change in area of suitability
2. Elevation shifts (for highly restricted habitats and species) – change in (i) location and (ii) elevation
3. Seasonal shifts – change in (i) yields, (ii) cropping patterns
Extreme events
4. Extreme event shifts Micro – eg flash flooding and soil loss in uplands Macro – eg saline intrusion in Delta; cyclone landfall
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Geographic shift
Paddy rice and
commercial crops
Shift in zone of suitability for habitat and crops
Original extent of natural habitat
Remaining natural habitat
pockets
Subsistence crops and NTF collection 6
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Identifying climate change “hot spots” – i.e. highly vulnerable areas
• High exposure: significant climate change relative to base conditions exposure to new climate/hydrological conditions
• High sensitivity: limited temperature and moisture tolerance range degraded and/or under acute pressure severely restricted geographic range rare or threatened
• Low adaptive capacity Poor connectivity Low diversity and tolerances Homogenous systems 7
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Climate change hot spot - rainfall
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Climate change hot spot - Temperature
Industrial and commercial crops and climate change hotspots
Lowland rice
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upland rice
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rubber
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Coffee (coffea canephora)
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cassava
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Maize
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Optimal growing conditions: Mean annual maximum temperature
Sensitivity assessments: climate tolerances
Optimal growing conditions: mean annual precipitation
Sensitivity assessments: climate tolerances
Trends in commercial crops with climate change
• Rubber: Projected increases in temperature and precipitation would open upland areas for rubber cultivation.
• Coffee plantations would suffer from changes in rainfall patterns and/or excess rainfall in the highland areas (especially Arabica).
• Cassava: Relatively resistant to drought so would become a substitute in rain fed agricultural systems in drier areas BUT would have reduced suitability in high rainfall areas.
• Sweet potato and key root crops not well suited to higher rainfall and soil moisture conditions and higher temperatures
• Soybean would suffer from higher temperatures - shift to higher elevation may be required.
• Bananas and mangoes: increases in temperature and precipitation would open upland areas for cultivation
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Rice cultivation and extreme flooding
• Extreme floods will be more common in rice based production systems in Lowland Cambodia and the Mekong Delta.
• Flood would have a larger impact where agriculture is intensified, with high yielding rice varieties less resilient to flood than traditional ones.
• Investment in intensive rice cultivation will become more risky
• Other commercial crops such as fruit and vegetables are less resilient to flood than rice.
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Rice
Rice cultivation and sea level rise
• A 30 cm rise by 2050 with increased flood extent, depth and duration will result in a loss of 193,000 ha of rice area in the Mekong Delta.
• Agriculture will be severely constrained by increased saline intrusion in the dry season and longer flood in the rainy season.
• The double and triple cropping system commonly used in the Mekong Delta might not be possible.
• Climate change will change the occurrence of plant disease and pests such as fungus and moulds, viruses, nematodes and a range of insects.
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Rice
Thank you
Jeremy Carew-Reid, ICEM – International Centre for Environmental Managementwww.icem.com.au
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