Mega drought in a mega city at a continental scale: São Paulo, Brazil
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São Paulo, Brazil Mega city + Mega drought in a Continental Landscape Erick C.M. Fernandes A Discussion Document…
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Transcript of Mega drought in a mega city at a continental scale: São Paulo, Brazil
São Paulo, Brazil
Mega city + Mega drought in a Continental Landscape
Erick C.M. Fernandes
A Discussion Document…
“Dregs & Drops”
• Brazil has more freshwater than any country in the world – 12 % of the entire planet’s total volume
• So how did São Paulo (SP) the richest, largest city in South America with 20 million people come within a few months of running out of water in 2015?
Major reservoirs dried up!!
Source: National Geographic
(1) A Distribution and Management Problem
• Brazil’s water resources and population are very unevenly distributed.
• The Amazon River basin contains roughly 50 percent of the country’s water, but only 4 percent of its population.
• About 80 percent of Brazilians are concentrated in megacities like São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, which rely on their own local river basins.
• About 40 percent of the population in these largest cities faces medium to extremely high water stress.
• As much as 80 percent of the water naturally available to agricultural, domestic, and industrial users is withdrawn annually, leaving businesses, farms, and communities vulnerable to scarcity.
Source: WRI
(2) It’s a Variability Problem• Brazil’s water supplies can vary
significantly from season to season and from year to year in Brazil.
• Most of Brazil experiences pronounced wet and dry seasons, otherwise known as high seasonal variability.
• Northeastern Brazil experiences high inter-annual variability
• The city of São Paulo depends, on the Cantareira System. Its six reservoirs, linked by 48 km of tunnels and canals, provide water to half the people in its metropolitan area.
• In October 2015, Cantareira system was reduced to 3 to 5 percent of its maximum capacity.
The 2015 SP Drought was the worst in 80 years! Climate Change could make such events the new normal (WBG Turn Down the Heat, 2012)
Source: WRI
3) It’s an Amazon Deforestation Problem
• Expert consensus is building around deforestation as a major driver of this year’s drought and other serious dry periods in Brazil. In 2015, SP experienced the worst drought in 80 years!
• Brazilian researchers are warning that Amazonian deforestation could interfere with the forest’s function as a giant water pump; it lifts vast amounts of moisture up into the air, which then circulate west and south, falling as rain to irrigate Brazil’s central and southern regions.
• Without these “flying rivers,” the area accounting for ~60 percent of South America’s GDP could dry out??*Launch the Power Point to see Dynamic Deforestation above
Source: WRI
Brazil’s Amazonian Flying Rivers
The Amazon Forest transpires ~ 20 billion tonnes (20 trillion liters) of water a day – “flying rivers” that water Central and southern Brazil & northern Argentina
The Amazon River discharges 17 billion tonnes of water a day into the Atlantic
Amazonian flying rivers bring significant rainfall to central, eastern and southern Brazil, northern Argentina, Paraguay and beyond??
The Flying Rivers Phenomenon
(1)The Ocean generates the humidity, (2) the Amazon forest generates the rainfall, (3) the westerly winds transport the rain to the 4000m+ Andean barrier and then southwards over Brazil. While the Andes and the Ocean are ‘permanent’, the Amazon Forest is NOT!! Any reduction in the forest compromises Brazil’s rainfall (agriculture, hydropower, urban WS)???
http://goo.gl/nWnB6w
So if Amazonian Deforestation & DegradationIs causing a significant weakening of the Amazon Hydrological Pump
that sustains Brazil’s economy & Latin American GDP…
Who are you going to call??? What are you going to do???
The Southern Margin of the Amazon Needs Urgent Protection
• A ‘green wall’ that restores degraded & deforested land, protects the southern margin of the Amazon from fires and further degradation, enhances the use of native vegetation (biodiversity), restores and enhances the Amazon hydrological pump, and provides robust local livelihoods and value chains is urgently needed. The WBG has global experience to share!!
• Global Donors could facilitate financing from Carbon Funds, Green Climate Funds, the GEF, to complement and leverage Brazil’s $1.2 billion annual low carbon agriculture (ABC) fund, to empower local communities to establish & manage the “Amazon Green Wall” for Sustainable Livelihoods???
Mega Droughts in 2005 & 2010 have left 100,000 million ha of the southern Amazon vulnerable to degradation and fires (see NASA images on forest stress/tree mortality below)
http://goo.gl/e4uozQ http://goo.gl/S4qc3h
“Green Wall” the southern Amazon!!
Carbon, Evapotranspiration, Biodiversity, Livelihoods
Who pays & Who Implements?
The World Bank Group in Action: Helping our Stakeholders1. Protect the soil, reduce surface flows of water & enhance infiltration, 2. Stabilize slopes via contour plantings & terraces, 3. Integrate perennial species, forests, and agroforestry in the landscape4. Protect all stream and river banks (riparian zones) with native
vegetation/forests5. Rehabilitate degraded lands6. Combine best available science with adapted local best practices
Terracing Terracing + Perennials Agroforestry & Forestry for Productive and Ecosystem services
Vegetated Riparian Zones
Dynamic Landscape Restoration - Amazon
Rehabilitating Degraded Landscapes & “Green Wall” examples
Development Outcomes ExamplesDevelopment Outcomes Examples• China’s Loess Plateau (1994-2013):China’s Loess Plateau (1994-2013):
– More than 2.5 million people in four of China’s poorest provinces – Shanxi, Shaanxi and Gansu, as well as the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region – were lifted out of poverty.
– Incomes grew from about US$70 per person per year to about US$200 through agricultural productivity enhancement and diversification.
– The flow of sediment from the Plateau into the Yellow River has been reduced by more than 100 million tons each year
• Mitigation: Mitigation: Reduced soil C loss+ added biomass C• Adaptation: Adaptation: Terracing, soil and water management,
improved crop and tree management
Increased milk production From 4,268 to 6,213 liters/ha/year (45%) because of reduced heat stress from shade of planted trees
Doubled meat production from 400 to 800 Kg/ha/yr due to improved forage/feed quality
Reduced production cost per ton of green fodder from US $ 4,48 to US $ 2,43 due to biological nitrogen fixing trees and decreased use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers
Increased stocking rate from 1.8 animals per ha to 2.5 animals per ha
Increased Internal Revenue Rate From 14% to 20% with PES
Incremental Carbon fixed ~ 20,000 t/yr
Soil erosion reduced ~ 18,500 t/yr
Silvopastoral Systems – Costa Rica
Green Wall Sustained by Local Communities & Robust Value ChainsWBG Best Management Practices, TA, Finances, & Guarantees +
Brazil’s National Development Funds & Institutions + Private Sector Market Links
