Meeting on the implementation coordination of the GFCS 29 September-1 October 2014

WMO, Geneva

Hartwig Kremer Division of Early Warning and Assessment United Nations Development Programme

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What is PROVIA? • PROVIA is a global programme aimed to synthesize and

communicate the growing knowledge on vulnerability, impacts and adaptation (VIA) and to develop capacity

• Parent organizations are UNEP, WMO, UNESCO;

• Underlying is the recognized need to provide framing incl. centralized assessment guidance as well as specific, often sectoral or place based approaches

• Contributes to the GFCS namely by fostering synergy among four components of WCP, i.e. providing a social science perspective to the modelling and research of WCRP

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• Experts: Gap analysis (incl.

links with EG and Bridging Gap

approaches – supported by

NL/UNEP); scientific advise

• Policymakers: International

Policymaker meetings

• Integrated: Policymaker and

Expert, Communities of

Practice

Priorities Process

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PROVIA Guidance on assessing VIA – a

“living” process

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• Key concepts, available methods and tools – participation, decision trees, evaluating alternatives;

• Technical guidance that combines science with user needs at local, national and international levels;

• Inform plans and decisions to reduce vulnerability;

• Engagement and moderation platform for researchers, adaptation practitioners, planners and policy-makers

A. Research activities: advancing policy-relevant research on VIA

A.1 Monitoring and evaluation: Indicators/proxies of adaptation and impact; gauging levels of vulnerability (e.g. people in flood plains) and progress in adaptation and resilience (houses insulated, councils in adaptation planning – UNEP Live link (www.uneplive.org – data overlay) A.2 Limits to adaptation: Where “best practice” no longer works: impacts exceed adaptive capacity (incremental/transformational change) – VIA thresholds and tipping points; hotspots; no surprises

PROVIA Activities 2014-15

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B. Engagement activities: coordinating and facilitating dissemination and practical applications of research

B.1 Biennal PROVIA Adaptation Futures conference:

B.2 Advisory role: Guidance and scientific information to the UNFCCC, NAP (Ian Noble, Saleem Huq), UK DECC, work with WCRP on

• Country-level impact studies (30 + countries) – embedding in UNEP Live and promoting use of standardized National Reporting Toolkit (UNEP EO and Assessment)

• Proposal to provide a Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation (VIA) Advisory Board for CMIP 6 (RCPs and SSPs, e.g., interacting with ScenarioMIP)

B.3 Liaise and co design and projects incl. UNFCCC (loss damages), EU Horizon 2020, Future Earth, realize co-benefits

PROVIA Activities 2014-15

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C. Development and training activities

C.1.1 Activities on PROVIA Guidelines: 2 regional consultations in 2014 (Washington, South Africa) – e-Guidance – MOOC by 2015

C 1.2. MOOC Small Island Developing States in a Changing Climate: Paths to Adaptation including PROVIA Guidelines by UNEP GRID , and Univ. Geneva (https://www.coursera.org/course/sids)

C.2 VIA-related training workshops: Co-organize workshops for developing country scientists and practitioners, with e.g. START, APN

C.3 Mentoring and Young Scholars Fellowship program under initial development (first batch selection soon) – strong focus in 4th PROVIA Adaptation Futures Conference

PROVIA Activities 2014-15

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Cooperation between PROVIA and GFCS

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close interaction among components of the WCP, contributing to GFCS Link to UNEP’s Urban (e.g. Deltas, Cities ecosystem management activities), Water (GEMS Water), Gap Assessments, SLCP Link to CSIS Opace 4 and 5 (User Interface, Capac. Dev.) Contribute to the Annex on Research Modelling and Prediction to the GFCS Implementation Plan in collaboration between WCRP and PROVIA for delivery of research output to decision makers PROVIA could enhance communication, interaction and cooperation among the corresponding research communities to help User Interface Platform of GFCS and Climate Outlook Fora. Join us in 2016 !!! ADAPTATION FUTURES - Rotterdam

4th International

PROVIA Climate Change Adaptation Conference

Adaptation Futures 2016: Practice and Solutions –

Coasts and Cities 10-12 May 2016, Rotterdam (Netherlands)

Co-hosted by

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Thank You