Meeting Agricultural Requirements in 2050…Not by technology alone

Meeting Agricultural Requirements in 2050…Not by technology alone

Obregon, March 26, 2014

Robert W Herdt

Herdt; March 26, 2014

Invitation from Tom Lumpkin…

• Invited my “perspectives about what the world will look like in 2050, an what that means for agricultural

research and development.”



Agricultural commodity prices have declined in real terms over the long term.

Adjusted for inflation (2005 = 100)

Life expectancy has increased everywhere

Life Expectancy, years

1800 1960 2000

Europe, N. America 35-40 68 75

Egypt, India, China,

etc.

25-35 40 65

Nigeria, Kenya, etc. 25-35 38 60

Major causes of death in children under 5 with disease-specific contribution of undernutrition, 2004

http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/en/


What will the world look like in 2050? Will there be enough food?

What should agricultural research do?

“It is difficult to make predictions”

“Especially about the future” Yogi Berra, NY Yankees


CGIAR Global Futures project

Economists, Modelers, Biologists, Political scientists Herdt; March 26, 2014

The World in 2050

• More people, more crowded

• More polluted

• Hotter & dryer on average

• Better connected

• More volatile weather, prices

• Wealthier on average, more unequal

• Will global agriculture keep up?



Monday, July 2, 1973

Rice is life itself in Southeast Asia, and

this year, there is not enough to go around. Last

year’s bad weather has turned the region’s usual

bare sufficiency into severe shortage.

The result: smuggling, hoarding, soaring prices and

hungry people.

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Crude oil, average ($/bbl)

Maize ($/mt)

Rice, Thai 5% ($/mt)

Wheat, US HRW ($/mt)

Urea ($/mt)

Food Crisis? Global Commodity Prices (current $, Jan’07 to Mar’14)


http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTDECPROSPECTS/0,,contentMDK:21574907~menuPK:7859231~pagePK:64165401~piPK:64165026~theSitePK:476883,00.html


LR Global Agricultural Demand Prospects

• Global Demands on Agriculture = Demand for Food + Demand for Energy + Demand for Ecosystem Services

• Industrial country food Demand is flat • Industrial country growth in agricultural Demand

is largely for Energy & Ecosystem Services – Impact on developing country people depends on how

closely they are “connected” -- Globalization • Developing country growth in agricultural

Demand is largely for food – Growth in demand for food depends on: population, income, preferences


Total fertility rates for the world and regions, 1950-2000 (medium variant)

Table 1a. Global total demand for farm output from population and from all sources in selected years from 1961 to 2050

1961 1975 2000 Variant 2025 2050

Total agricultural demand relative to the year 2000

Population only 50 67 100 Low 124 127

Medium 131 150

High 138 176

Total agricultural demand Low 135 152

from income, energy, environmental demands Medium 143 179

High 151 209

Source: CAST 45 (2010) Herdt; March 26, 2014

Table 1b. Global total demand for farm output from population and from all sources in selected years from 1961 to 2050

1961 1975 2000 Variant 2025 2050

Total agricultural demand relative to the year 2000

Population only 50 67 100 Low 124 127

Medium 131 150

High 138 176

Total agricultural demand Low 135 152

from income, energy, environmental demands Medium 143 179

High 151 209

Source: CAST 45 (2010) Herdt; March 26, 2014

Table 2. Index numbers of agricultural production, global FAOSTAT 2004-2006 = 100

World 2001-02 2004-06 2007-09 2010-12 % ‘10-’12 vs ‘01-’02

Total Agriculture 90.1 100.0 108.3 115.5 28%

Food 90.3 100.0 108.7 115.8 28%

Cereals 91.9 100.0 108.7 112.9 23%

Livestock 91.6 100.0 108.0 113.9 24%

Source Extracted from FAOSTAT March 5, 2014


Table 3. Index numbers of agricultural production, Global and Africa FAOSTAT 2004-2006 = 100

Region 2001-02 2004-06 2007-09 2010-12 % ‘10-’12 vs ‘01-’02

Total Agriculture, World 90.1 100.0 108.3 115.5 28%

Total Agriculture, Africa 84.8 100.0 107.6 119.2 40%

Food, Africa 84.4 100.0 108.3 119.9 42%

Cereals, Africa 91.6 100.0 108.0 113.9 24%

Livestock, Africa 86.4 100.0 112.2 121.7 41%

Source Extracted from FAOSTAT March 5, 2014


Table 4. How much food consumption is adequate? Average kg/capita/yr, 2006-2009 (FAOSTAT) and constructed

Cassava Maize Rice Wheat Beans Fruits & Veggies

Meat

Bangladesh 1 7 171 17 1 46 4

India 6 5 68 55 3 114 4

Haiti 31 20 42 27 7 90 16

Dominican R 11 6 47 28 5 213 54

Malawi 72 134 5 6 5 85 6

S Africa 1 100 16 63 3 76 52

Low-income Inadequate

50 100 190 10 1 50 2

Low-income Adequate

5 10-50 50-100 25-50 6 100 25


Table 5. To eliminate undernourishment in 2050: 236 to 298 mmt grain equivalent

Starchy staples

Fruit & Vegetables

Beans & Legumes

Meat Total

Low-income undernourished consume kg/cap/yr in 2010

180 75 5 9

Low-income adequate level 110 150 10 36

Increase kg/cap by 2050 -70 75 0 27

Increase * Poor population 2050

-(800*70) million kg=

56mmt less

800*75= 60 mmt

increase

800*5= 4mmt

increase

800*27= 21.6 mmt

increase

Cereal resource requirement equivalent

1 3 2 5-8

Change in cereal equivalents million metric tons

-56 180 1 108-173 236-298


Table 6. To eliminate undernourishment in 2050: 236 to 298 mmt grain equivalent

Starchy staples

Fruit & Vegetables

Beans & Legumes

Cereal equivalents of Meat

Total

Change in cereal equivalents million metric tonnes

-56 180 1 108-170 236-298

Current global production

1171 1414 16 1395-2232 3996-4833

Increase above market demand

-4.7% 12.7% 6.2% 7.7% 5.8-6.1%


Conclusions from the above: The non-market needs of the 800 million undernourished requires 6-10% more output: This is easily achievable with little increase in food prices, as the record shows What is needed, in addition: 1. Food entitlements for the undernourished Higher rural incomes and/or food distribution or subsidies 2. Health, education, dedicated nutritional interventions, off-farm income The role of agricultural research 1. Continue increasing productivity of main crops 2. Raise productivity of crops grown by the poor 3. Raise requirements for hired labor, which is supplied by the poor 4. Improve the stability of production 5. Reduce the risk of price gyrations


Fig. 1 Malawi Maize Production 1990/91-2008/09

Annotated with Input Programs


Lessons of the Malawi (E/S Africa) Maize Experience

• Smallholders (the only maize producers in Malawi) are quite responsive to opportunities

• When available, fertilizer is used and increases yields in the SR

• On-farm yields show very little LR trend

• A set of underlying physical and biological constraints limit yields

• Agricultural research can address those constraints, but must change to do so


Needed changes in agricultural research

• Continue past rate of productivity growth

– Higher yielding systems

• Reduce the risk of price/policy gyrations

• Raise productivity of crops grown by the poor

• Raise requirements for hired labor, which is supplied by the poor

• Improve the stability of production


From a former member of a CGIAR Center Board

“I am wondering how it is possible that the wisdom of those who made the CGIAR what it used to be, have left this part of the world not only untouched but, in many ways, worse off than 50 years ago. We had 4 PhD´s in 1970, now there isn´t one in the country. Science and research are practically non-existent, school children among the most backward in reading comprehension, math etc. All this is a country whose economy is, relatively booming. So we live surrounded by unimaginable poverty, with the farmers abandoning their tiny parcels which did at least produce some food, and joining the sprawling urban slums.”


Needed changes to increase productivity on small, resource-limited farms

• A more balanced research agenda:

– National and international

– Biological and policy and institutional

– On-station and on-farm

– By researchers and by farm facilitators and by farmers

– To Generate and Incorporate and Disseminate and Translate new knowledge


International agricultural research needs to change to help raise productivity on small,

resource-limited farms • Adjust agendas to: • Move beyond “international public goods” • Assist national programs to

– Do more to Incorporate and Disseminate and Translate new knowledge so it is suitable for low-resource farmers

• More crop management research: appropriate legumes? timing? methods? livestock-crop systems? micronutrient deficiencies? markets?

• Obtain more of the genetic production potential in the varieties available and being produced


International agricultural research needs to change to help raise productivity on small,

resource-limited farms • More effective systems for:

– Seed multiplication, sales and delivery

– Fertilizer recommendations, sales and on-time delivery

– Credit facilities

– Irrigation technologies

• Work hand-in-hand with NGOs and other technology delivery channels


International system needs to help build national applied research capacity

• Change the culture of the applied agricultural research system by raising its prestige and convincing actors that success is reflected in rising farm output.

• Ensure the relevance of the technology to the needs of small holder farmers by evaluating the technology in farmers’ fields and viewing “the farmer as boss.”

• Recognize the long-term nature of the process and ensure its sustainability.

• Drive the process to scale across the continent.


What is needed to improve the well-being of poor, limited-resource rural people?

What should international agricultural research do?

“When you come to a fork in the road,

Take It.” Yogi Berra, NY Yankees


References • Buchanan, Gale, Robert Herdt and Luther Tweeten, Agricultural Productivity Strategies for

the Future: Addressing US and Global Challenges (2010), CAST Issue Paper 45, January 2010 (CAST, Washington, DC).

• Denning, G, P. Kabambe, P. Sanchez, A. Malik, et al. (2009) Input Subsidies to Improve Smallholder Maize Productivity in Malawi: Toward an African Green Revolution. PLoS Biol 7(1): e1000023. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.1000023

• Ellis, Frank, Elizabeth Manda (2012) Seasonal food crises and policy responses: A narrative account of three food crises in Malawi. World Development Vol. 40, No. 7, pp. 1407-17.

• FAO, IFAD and WFP. 2013. The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2013. The multiple dimensions of food security. Rome,

• FAO. FAO, Statistical Yearbook of the FAO: http://www.fao.org/docrep/018/i3107e/i3107e.PDF

• Mann, Charles K., Malawi: Farm Input Programs and Maize Production: Reflections (2014). (Food Security Advisor in Malawi, 1987-1990, 1993-1996; Former economist with Harvard Institute for International Development, Falmouth, MA. Email: [email protected]

• Ngwira, Amos R., Jens B. Aune , Symon Mkwinda; On-farm evaluation of yield and economic benefit of short term maize legume intercropping systems under conservation agriculture in Malawi (2012) Field Crops Research Volume 132 pp.149 - 157


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Meeting Agricultural Requirements in 2050…Not by technology alone

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