Adaptation to Climate Change of the

Mediterranean Agricultural Systems

ACLIMAS

SWIM (Sustainable Water Integrated Management) -Demonstration Project – Water and Climate Change

"European Neighborhood and Partnership (ENP) financial co-operation with Mediterranean countries"

Mladen Todorović, CIHEAM-IAMB

Final Project Workshop , Marrakesh, Morocco, 1st December 2015

www.aclimas.eu

Funded by Implemented by

NEOLITHIC (AGRICULTURAL) REVOLUTION

AND CLIMATE CHANGE

WHEAT

MAIZE

RISE

Source: Diamond and Bellwood, 2003; Wikipedia

The dates aregiven in theyears from nowand referred tothe prehistoricsites dated by C14.

Average velocityof advance was500 km in 500year, i.e. 1kmper year.

Source: Ammerman and Cavalli Sforza, 1971

ADVANCE OF AGRICULTURE TOWARDS THE WEST

Source: Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), 2015

All 10 of the world’s hottest recorded years have

come since 1998

14 of 15 of the hottest years ever measured have

all been in the 21st Century

Fist decade of the 21st Century was the hottest one

over the last 11,300 years

First 9 months of 2015 were the hottest ever

recorded

September 2015 was the hottest ever recorded

(15.9 °C in respect to average of 15 °C)

2014 Confirmed As Hottest Year

On Record Globally

Global cereal production

Nitrogen, phosphorus

and water input

Source; Tilman et al., 2002 (former USSR data are not included)

Cereal production &

resources use2.5 times

2.5 times

2 times

8 times

Climate change 2050 vs. 2000

temperature (°C) precipitation (mm)

Annual Annual

Source: WASSERMed project (EC-FP7-ENV)

Examples of "chains of impacts" of major

climatic changes on future human activities. Source: IDDRI, 2012

World by 2050 in respect to 2000• Population increase by 42%

• Food demand increase by 60% due to population growth (70%) and

changes in diets (30%)

• Cereal production should increase by 46% to reach 3 billion tons

• Meat production should increase by 75% to reach 455 million tons

• Oil crops production should increase by 89% to reach 282 million tons

• Global arable land will increase by 4.5%, intensification of cultivation

• Irrigation will expand by 6.6% (20 million ha)

• 21% of cultivated land will be irrigated and produce about 44% of

food demand

• Water demand should increase by 55%

• Water availability for agricultural sector will be reduced by 18%

(Strzepek and Boehlert, 2010 ) due to competition with other sectors

• Energy demand increase by 80% (84% in agriculture to support 60%

of food demand increase)Source: FAO, 2011, 2012.

TARGET AREAS AND CROPS

Chaouia Ourdigha ,

Morocco

(wheat, barley,

chickpea, lentil,

forage legume)

Northern Tunisia,

Tunisia

(wheat, barley,

chickpea,

faba bean )

West Nubaria,

Egypt

(chick pea,

faba bean)

Bekaa Valley,

Lebanon

(wheat,

barley)

Aleppo

Plateau,

Syria

(wheat,

barley)

Irbid,

Jordan

(wheat,

barley,

legumes)

OVERALL OBJECTIVE: to bring a durable improvement in the

agricultural water management and a broader socio-economic

development in target areas in the context of adaptation to climate

change, increasing water scarcity, and desertification risk.

Country Region Name of the target areas

Morocco Chaouia Ourdigha Oulad Said, Sidi El Aidi, Tamadroust, Berrechid,

Ain Nzagh, Sidi Mohamed Ben Rahal

Tunisia North-Eastern Tunisia,

South-Eastern Tunisia

Capbon, Manouba, Saida, Mhamedia, Grombalia,

Médenine Governorate

Egypt Western Nubaria Entelak, Tiba

Jordan Irbid Governorate Bani Kananeh, Bani Obaid, Quasbat Irbid, Al-Ramtha

Lebanon Bekaa Valley El Hermel, Baalbeck, Zahle, West Bekaa

Algeria Wilaya of Ain Defla Khmese Melanah

Khmese Melanah

(Wilaya of Ain Defla),

Algeria

(wheat, barley)

Specific Objectives

• To improve the initial conditions (local offices, stations, and demonstration

fields) for lasting promotion of sustainable agricultural practices in target

areas.

• To demonstrate the applicability for the selected combinations of genotypes

and water management practices (including water harvesting and

conservation tillage) at demonstration fields;

• To adapt/stabilize agricultural production through large scale on-ground

implementation of the best performing genotypes and water

harvesting/management practices;

• To evaluate the on-ground sustainability of the proposed adaptation

measures considering the economic, social and environmental dimensions

at farm level;

• To train local farmers and growers on the application and implementation of

proposed management practices;

• To disseminate the results of the action through the thematic guidelines,

brochures, field days, seminars, video material and a dedicated web page.

• Target groups:

– Farmers, growers, breeders, policy makers, water/irrigation

managers, local seed companies, agricultural advisers.

• Final beneficiaries:

– All rural society, local farmers communities and associations,

water user’s associations, governments, environment

• Estimated results:

– Improved water productivity in agriculture and more stable

agricultural production

• Main activities:

– Demonstration, replication, on-ground implementation,

dissemination, training, sustainability evaluation.

PartnershipP1 International Centre for Advanced Mediterranean Agronomic Studies (CIHEAM-IAMB)

P2 International Centre for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA)

P3 Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Morocco

P4 Institut National Agronomique de Tunisie (INAT), Tunisia

P5 West Nubaria Rural Development Project (WNRDP), Egypt

P6 National Center for Agricultural Research and Extension (NCARE), Jordan

P7 Lebanese Agricultural Research Institute (LARI), Lebanon

P8 Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Italy

P9 Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche - Istituto per i Sistemi Agricoli e Forestali del

Mediterraneo (CNR-ISAFOM), Italy

P10 Universitat de Barcelona (UdB), Spain

P11 Universitat de Lleida (UdL), Spain

P12 University of Nottingham (UNOTT), United Kingdom

P13 Agriculture Environement et Developpement, pour l’Avenir (AGENDA),NGO,Morocco

P14 Association of the Friends of Ibrahim AbdEl Al (AFIAL), NGO, Lebanon

P15 Technical Institute of Field Crops (ITGC). Algeria

Project implementing

Agency

CIHEAM-IAMB

European Commission

Steering

Committee

Committee

for on-ground

implementation

Morocco Tunisia Egypt Jordan Algeria

P3

P11

Partners

P4

P1

P5

P8

P6

P12

P10

P15

P7

P9

Lebanon

P13 P14P2

Cereals Legumes

WP2 : DEMONSTRATION WP3 : IMPLEMENTATION

WP4 : SUSTAINABILITY

WP1 : START UP

PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Offices

EquipmentDemo-fields

Social

Environmental

Economic

WP5 : TRAINING and

Courses

Videos

Varieties x Mgm

Guidelines

Seminars

DISSEMINATION

Web site

Water Nutrient SalinityHeat

Cereals Legumes

Varieties Management

Field days

year Year 1 (2012) Year 2 (2013) Year 3 (2014)

trimester

Selection var x mgm

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

Demonstration 1° year

Demonstration 2° year

On-ground implementation

On-ground implementation

Sustainability

Farming systems characterization

Sustainability

Training Training

Video material Video material

Brochures Brochures

Guidelines

Seminars

Web page

WP1

WP2

WP3

WP4

WP5

Offices and fields setup

Field days Field days

1 2 3 4

Year 4 (2015)

Demonstration 3° year

Sustainability

Training

Video material

Brochures

Field days

The expected direct outputs

• 6 demonstration fields with agro-meteorological stations, other equipment and

Excel-based irrigation scheduling tool;

• 2 years of testing (at least 48 combinations of genotypes and water management

practices);

• 24 training courses and 600 farmers, technicians and water managers trained;

• 60 field days with the participation of 1200 local stakeholders;

• 2 years on-ground implementation of the best performing varieties and water

harvesting and management practices in a surface area of at least 240 ha with the

involvement of at least 120 farmers;

• 2 guidelines, 24 brochures, 6 seminars, 180 minutes of video material, etc.

• Social and economic impact:

– support of the local communities to market a quality durum wheat and chick pea

products and

– promotion of the women cooperatives for durum wheat transformation to

several types of couscous on downstream value chain (in Morocco)

APPROACH

Improved more tolerant

VARIETIES

Sustainable management

PRACTICES

Sowing

Conservation

agriculture

Fertilizer

application

Water

Crop rotation

Application

Harvesting

Quality

Tillage

Residue cover

Time

Density

Demonstration x Implementation x Dissemination

(sustainability evaluation)

Demonstration fields, crops and management

• Morocco – Sidi El Aydi Experimental Station of Institut National de la

Recherche Agronomique of Settat (wheat, chickpea, faba bean); crop

rotation, tillage practices, and nitrogen input

• Tunisia – Mornag station of the Institut National Agronomique de Tunisie

(durum wheat – supplemental irrigation and precision sowing, barley –

supplemental irrigation with saline water, chickpea – winter-spring sowing

and faba bean – planting density)

• Egypt – Al-Esraa wa Al-Meraag Training and Extension Station of the

Ministry of Agriculture, located in Entlak area in Nubaria (chickpea and

faba bean); water (salinity) input and timely sowing

• Jordan – Maru Agricultural Research Station (wheat, barley) water

harvesting, conservation tillage, timely sowing

• Lebanon – Lebanese Agricultural Research Institute (LARI), in Tal Amara

(wheat and barley); supplemental irrigation, conservation tillage and timely

sowing

• Algeria – Bassami Aljelali (governmental) pilot farm managed by ITGC

(bread and durum wheat, barley); supplemental irrigation, fertilizers

application

ACLIMAS OUTPUTS FROM TUNISIA

Source: ACLIMAS Guidelines, INAT (N. Ben Mechlia, 2015

1. Demonstration workResults: Wheat

ACLIMAS OUTPUTS FROM LEBANON

Source: ACLIMAS Guidelines, LARI (M.T: Abi Saab), 2015

1. Demonstration workResults: Barley

ACLIMAS OUTPUTS FROM LEBANON

Source: ACLIMAS Guidelines, LARI (M.T: Abi Saab), 2015

ACLIMAS OUTPUTS FROM JORDAN

Source: ACLIMAS Guidelines, NCARE (Y. Shakhatreh), 2015

ACLIMAS OUTPUTS FROM ALGERIA

FI=80 mm

HI=40 mm

Source: ACLIMAS Guidelines, ITGC (A. Chadouli), 2015

SEASON 2012/13

Activity Lebanon Jordan Morocco Tunisia Algeria Egypt Total

N° of fields equipped 1 1 1 2 1 - 6/6

N° cars acquired 1 1 2 0 1 - 5/6

Demonstration activities

(seasons)3 3 2 3 3 -- 14/12

N° of combinations of varieties

and mgm practices16 32 147 20 18 - 233/48

N° of training courses 5 4 4 5 14 2 34/24

Training courses participants 115 89 146 118 285 103 856/600

N° of field days 12 8 10 21 15 66

Field days participants 225 478 587 588 340 2218/1200

N° of farmers involved in

on-field implementation28 22 20 25 15 110/120

Implemented land (ha) 80 47 98 91 9 325/240

Improved yield (from-to,

average)

20-30%

(29%)

29-33%

(31%)

20-25% 32% 19-31%

(28%)

19-33%

(25%)

Improved Yield WP (from-to,

average)

30-50%

(40%)

14-22%

(18%)

(25%) (29%) 15-30%

(25%)

14-50%

(30%)

Final Workshops 1 1 1* 1* 1* 1* 6/6

Final Workshop participants

(*estimated)75 95 25* 30* 40* 80*

170+175*

/180

N° of guidelines 1 (3) 1 (3) 1 (3) 1 (3) 1 (3) 5 (3) /6

More than 200 minutes of video material (>50 videos) in 3 languages; 4 radio spots (Algeria); brochures;

project website with more than 7600 visitors since May 2012, ACLIMAS Web Community

The state of progress/completion of activities per country

ACLIMAS web site www.aclimas.eu

Creation date: 11 May 2012

Total visitors (until 16/11/2015): 7608

Total page views: 27025

ACLIMAS Web Community

Stay Connected

Geolocation of visitors of ACLIMAS website

1912

540

317

271170

162152132127111

100

97

8660

6046

3263

Italy

China

Brazil

Morocco

Lebanon

Tunisia

Algeria

Russian Federations

United Kingdom

United States

Spain

Jordan

Egypt

France

Germany

Greece

Other countries

Opportunities and Recommendations

• Rural societies need continuous technical support to enhance the

resilience to the climate change impacts;

• ACLIMAS has involved more than 3500 local stakeholders in 6 countries

– strong willingness to collaborate in demonstration and implementation

program – significant replication potential

• Feedback from the ACLIMAS stakeholders and fields:

– to extend the activities to other target areas/stakeholders and/or to other

crops;

– to afford continuous monitoring of soil-plant-atmosphere continuum (weather

variables) – early warning for extreme weather events and abiotic stresses;

– to provide timely advice on water management and other agronomic

practices.

• Implementation and testing of a tool for a real time and more efficient

proactive agricultural water management is needed

demonstration

training

replication

on-field implementation

dissemination

sustainability

evaluation

ACLIMAS follow up …

Extension

Inclusion

(vegetables,

stone fruits)

Sustainable

Water

Management

Support

Sustainable and Resilient

Rural Societies

CEREALS

Stakeholders

/territorial

Source : http://www.eea.europa.eu/

Eco-efficient agricultural production

THANK YOU

شكراMERCI

www.aclimas.eu