Medical, Auto, Aerospace, Office, High-End Systems...

2013 iNEMI Roadmap:

Medical, Auto, Aerospace, Office,

High-End Systems, & Portable PEGs

Webinar - Introduction

May 17, 2012

1

Industry Led Teams

• Technical Working Group Teams

– Develops the roadmap technology chapters

– Presently 21 Teams and Chapters

• Product Emulator Group Teams

– “Virtual Product”: future product attributes plus key cost and

density drivers – Presently 6 Teams and Chapters

• Portable / Consumer

• Office Systems

• High-End Systems

• Medical Products

• Automotive

• Aerospace/Defense

Agenda - Asia

• Thursday, May 17, 2012 (9:00 a.m. — 11:00 a.m. China)

• 9:00 AM iNEMI Welcome/Overview Chuck Richardson

• 9:15 AM Aerospace/Defense PEG Bill Murphy

• 9:30 AM Automotive PEG Jim Spall

• 9:45 AM Consumer/Portable PEG Vadim Sherman

• 10:00 AM Medical PEG Fred Sporon-Fiedler

• 10:15 AM Office Systems PEG David Lober

• 10:30 AM High-End Systems PEG Dale Becker

• 10:45 AM Summary/Q&A Bob Pfahl/All

• 11:00 AM Close Haley Fu

2

Agenda – North America

• Thursday, May 17, 2012 (10:00 a.m. — 12:00 p.m. CDT)

• 10:00 AM iNEMI Welcome/Overview Chuck Richardson

• 10:15 AM Aerospace/Defense PEG Bill Murphy

• 10:30 AM Automotive PEG Jim Spall

• 10:45 AM Consumer/Portable PEG Vadim Sherman

• 11:00 AM Medical PEG Fred Sporon-Fiedler

• 11:15 AM Office Systems David Lober

• 11:30 AM High-End Systems PEG Dale Becker

• 11:45 AM Summary/Q&A Bob Pfahl/All

• 12:00 PM Close

3

4

Product

Needs

Technology

Evolution

GAP

Analysis Research

Projects

Methodology

Competitive

Solutions

Roadmap

Industry Solution

Needed

Academia

Government

iNEMI

Members

Collaborate

No Work

Required

Available

to Market

Place

Global

Industry

Participation Disruptive

Technology

2013 Product Emulator Groups

5

Product Emulator Chair(s) 2013

Automotive Products Jim Spall, Delphi

Medical Products Anthony Primavera, Micro Systems Eng. Fred Sporon-Fiedler, Micro Systems Eng.

Consumer / Portable Products Vadim Sherman, Intel

Office Systems Products David Lober, Intel

High- End System Products Dale Becker, IBM

Aerospace/Defense William Murphy, Lockheed Martin

6 6

2011 Technology Working Groups (TWGs)

Organic PCB Board

Assembly Customer

RF Components &

Subsystems

Optoelectronics Large Area, Flexible Electronics

Energy Storage &

Conversion Systems

Modeling, Simulation,

and Design

Packaging

&

Component

Substrates

Semiconductor

Technology

Final

Assembly

Mass Storage (Magnetic & Optical)

Passive Components

Information

Management

Systems

Test, Inspection &

Measurement

Environmentally

Conscious

Electronics

Ceramic

Substrates

Thermal

Management

Connectors

MEMS/

Sensors

Red=Business Green=Engineering Purple=Manufacturing Blue=Component &

Subsystem

Solid State Illumination

Photovoltaics

7

Roadmap Development

Product Emulator Groups TWGs

Semiconductor Technology

Design Technologies

Manufacturing Technologies

Comp./Subsyst. Technologies

Modeling, Thermal, etc.

Board Assy, Test, etc.

Packaging, Substrates, Displays, etc.

2013 Product Sector Needs Vs. Technology Evolution

Business Processes

Prod Lifecycle Information Mgmt.

Optoelectronics and

Optical Storage

Organic Printed

Circuit Boards

Magnetic and

Optical Storage

Supply Chain

Management

Semiconductors

iNEMI

Information

Management

TWG

iNEMI

Mass Data

Storage TWG

iNEMI / IPC / EIPC

/ TPCA

Organic PWB

TWG

iNEMI / ITRS /

MIG/PSMA

Packaging

TWG

iNEMI

Board

Assembly

TWG

Interconnect

Substrates—Ceramic

iNEMI Roadmap

iNEMI

Optoelectronics

TWG

Fourteen Contributing Organizations

8

iNEMI / MIG

/ ITRS

MEMS

TWG

iNEMI

Passives

TWG

http://mpc-web.mit.edu/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&layout=blog&id=111&Itemid=27

Statistics for the 2011 iNEMI Roadmap

• > 575 participants

• > 310 companies/organizations

• 18 countries from 4 continents

• Greater than 7 man years of resources in the development

• 21 Technology Working Groups (TWGs)

• 6 Product Emulator Groups (PEGs)

• > 1800 pages of information

• Roadmaps the needs for 2011-2021

• New roadmaps on:

– MEMS/Sensors

– Energy Storage & Conversion

– Aerospace & Defense

• Over 55 long term research priorities identified

• And 160 short to medium term key technical gaps

9

10

www.inemi.org Email contacts:

Grace O’Malley (Europe)

[email protected]

Haley Fu (Asia)

[email protected]

Chuck Richardson (Roadmap)

[email protected]

Bob Pfahl (V.P. Operations)

[email protected]

Bill Bader (CEO)

[email protected]

iNEMI 2013 Roadmap, Aerospace PEG

Webinar

Bill Murphy, Lockheed Martin

May 17, 2012

12

Technology Roadmap for Aerospace &

Defense Electronics Assembly Industry

Bill Murphy

Lockheed Martin Fellow

Product Integration

Lockheed Martin Mission Systems & Sensors (MS2)

The New Reality

13

Our Customers’ Challenges & Initiatives

• National Debt and DoD Budget

• Multiple Active Military Conflicts

• Regional Instabilities

• Homeland Security

• Pentagon Restructuring

• 75% Solution

• Rapid Fielding

• High TRLs and MRLs

• Future of NASA (e.g. Manned)

• Globalization (Export Reform)

Affordable, Agile Systems, Rapidly Developed and Fielded

14

15`

Market Environment

• Majority of A&D OEMs Outsource PCBs – Significant Capital Investment – Specialized Skills & Facilities

• North American Capability Shrinking

– 1985… >40% and ~2000 Suppliers – 2011… <10% and ~300 Suppliers

• A&D PCB Demand is Stable or Growing

• Few Suppliers Produce Leading-Edge PCBs for A&D

Relatively Few “Preferred” Suppliers for A&D OEMs

16

• Continued Use of COTS Components – Mil Semiconductors <1% of Market

• Pb-Free Component Processing

– Solder Joint Reliability, Risk Mitigation

• Unprecedented Design Complexity

– Moore’s Law & “More than Moore”

• Ever Higher Clock Speeds (1 GHz+)

– Signal and Power Integrity

• Increased Power Dissipation (2-3X)

– Multi-Faceted Thermal Management

• Electro-Optical Components

– Subsystem to Subsystem Comm.

Current Technology Trends (2011)

• Significant PCB Wiring Challenges driven by Emerging Component

Technologies

– Double Sided SMT and Shrinking Area Array Pitches drive -via, finer

Lines / Space, Smaller PTVs, and Sequential Lamination

• Tougher Electrical Requirements

– Signal Integrity Impedance Control

– Power Integrity Distribution Embedded Capacitors

• Critical information Protection through Enhanced Security

– Trusted Environment

– Classified Manufacturing

– Specialized Materials and Processes

• Emerging Demand for Flexible and Liquid Crystal Polymer (LCP)

“substrates”

• Emerging Demand for EOPWB

17



• Rigid

– Mature in military markets

– Continuous improvement of “state of the art”

• Flex

– Mature in consumer electronics

– In transition to military markets

• Photonics

– Mature in commercial telecom

– Emerging near term commercial and military

technology

• 3D IC

– Emerging long term commercial and military

technology

Enhance capabilities with current

technologies

Advance maturity of future technologies

(MRL / TRL)

18

19

• Exodus of Semiconductor and PCB

Fab from the U.S. to the Far East

– Trusted Foundry Access Program

– PCB Executive Agent Named in 2009

• End-of-Life Parts Management

– EOL Buys -> Significant Redesigns

• Proliferation of Counterfeit Parts

– Constant Vigilance Now Required

• Protection of Critical Information

– Advanced Design Techniques

– Specialized Materials

– Classified Manufacturing

• Export Control

Supply Chain Challenges

20

• Embedded Passives and Actives

• Embedded Optics

• Nanotechnology

– Performance, Capacity

– Size, Weight, and Power (SWAP)

– CNT Composites and Nano Polymers

• Prognostic Health Monitoring

• 3D Packaging

– MCMs, SIPs

– 3D IC

– Through Silicon via Densification

• “Beyond Silicon”

– The Next Switch (Optical, Nano, etc.)

The Future is Now…

iNEMI 2013 Roadmap, Automotive PEG

Webinar

Jim Spall, Delphi

May 17, 2012

22

Automotive Product Emulator

• Situation Analysis

– Business Issues (Global)

• GM retakes title of top-selling global automaker

– 9.03 million in sales in 2011

– 7.6 percent increase from 2010

• Volkswagen AG came in second


– 14 percent increase from 2010

• Toyota came in third


– Sales in 2011 were hurt by the March earthquake in Japan

that slowed its factories and left dealers short on cars to

sell

– Predicting that it will sell 8.48 million in 2012

23



– Business Issues (Global)

• Auto industry experts predict a tight race this year between GM,

Volkswagen, Toyota, and the joint venture between Nissan and

Renault.

• Factors that could effect the automotive recovery

– Debt crisis in Europe driving a global recession

– Gas prices in the U.S. above $4 per gallon

24



• Business Issues (North America)

– Americans felt more confident about the economy and there was pent-up demand

• Average age of vehicles was 10.8 years (record)

– 12.7 million vehicles sold in 2011

– 11.5 million vehicles sold in 2010

– GM sales rise 13 percent in 2011

• 2.5 million vehicles in the U.S.

– Ford sales rise 11 percent in 2011


– Chrysler sales rise 26 percent in 2011


25


• Situation Analysis (Automotive Electronics)

2010 2011 2012 20142013 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

4.7% CAAGR

2011-2017

4.2% CAAGR

2017-2023

$211Bn

$270Bn

$Bn

$200

$400

$300

$100

0

2011

$160Bn

10% of

Electronics Industry

N212.bes-INEMI auto

0Americas Japan Europe Asia/

ROW

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% Production 2010

PrismarkData


• Business Issues

– Increased Corporate Average Fuel Economy to 35.5 mpg by 2016

• Downsizing of engines and increased use of Gas Direct injection

• Increased use of turbo-charging

• Researchers project 14 million electrified vehicles annually by 2020

– 1.5 million full Electric Vehicles (EV)

– 1.5 million Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV)

– 11 million Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV)

» Toyota sold over 800,000 Prius Hybrids globally last year

» Toyota has started a whole Prius vehicle line

» Every major auto maker has HEV’s in the U.S.

– Volume will based on operating cost, carbon benefits, range

limitations, cost of fuel and government incentives for EV sales

• Nissan sold 9,674 Leaf’s last year

• GM sold 7,671 Volt’s last year – All needing repairs to better protect the

vehicles batteries from a crash test


• Business Issues

– Automotive MEMS Revenue

• $2.2 billion in 2011, up 16 percent from 2010

• $1.9 Billion in 2010

• Five-year compounded growth rate of approximately 10 percent

starting from 2010

28


– Technical Issues

• Shift to Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV), Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV), and Electric Vehicles (EV)

– Invention required to reach the battery cost target of $250/kWh

» Today’s cost $1,000 -$1,200/kWh

– Key components that are in need include: High performance PCBs, power devices, bulk capacitors, inductors and transformers, cooling structures, motor drive microprocessors, high current connectors, current sensors, gate driver ICs, battery management ICs, busbars, and enclosures.

• Increased use of MEMS in automotive

– Accelerometers

– Gyroscopes

– Pressure

– Air Flow


• 12.3 inch reconfigurable displays for the instrument panel

• LED lighting used internal and external lighting

• Connected Vehicle

– Key Drivers: cost, reliability, size

• Cost is still the main key driver for automotive

– Competitive cost will get you an opportunity to win a program

• Reliability is a given in the automotive sector

– Failure to deliver will result in no future business

• Size is a benefit because some vehicles having 100 electronic

controllers and space is limited


– Chart 2011 vs. 2013 forecast differences

• Circuit board – need for heavy copper

• Large passives with press fit terminations

• Increased use of MEMS sensors (Identified the types being used

in the emulator)

• The use of 0201 components in the future

• Higher resolution and larger displays being used (12.3” displays

for the instrument cluster)

• Sales of SnPb solder (80%) versus Lead free solder (20%) for 2011

• Greater thermal demands due to the electrified vehicle


• Critical (Infrastructure) Issues –

– Identify Paradigm Shifts

• The shift to electrified vehicles

• The connected vehicle

– Need to limit the distraction of the driver

• The use of reconfigurable displays

– Provide Vision of Final Assembly Process

• Varied - dependent on the type of product (sealed underhood versus unsealed passenger compartment)

– Discuss System Test

• More in depth to eliminate problems in the field

• Better testing of software as the amount of code increases

– Discuss Environmental Issues

• All new products are being designed with Lead Free solder


• Prioritized Technology Requirements and Trends: Research,

Development, Implementation

– Components related to the Electrified Vehicle

• Lower cost batteries ($250/kWh)

• Improved thermal interface materials

• Improved power devices, capacitors, inductors, transformers, battery

management ICs, gate drive ICs

– Infrastructure for Electrified Vehicles

• Limits to energy storage

• Long recharging times

• Updated electrical grid


• Contributors

– Many engineers at Delphi

– Inventec

• Rodrigo Aguilar – Marketing

• Mrs Anne Marie Laugt – Director Electronic Business Unit

• Mrs Céline Puechagut – R&D Manager

• Ms. Emmanuelle Guene – Application Manager

iNEMI 2013 Roadmap,

Consumer/ Portable PEG

Webinar

Vadim Sherman, Intel

May 17, 2012

35

Office/Large Business System PEG

• Portable/Consumer PEG includes:

– Computers

– Tablets

– Mobile Phones, Smartphones

– Portable Gaming

– Televisions, Set Top Boxes

Executive Summary

• Consumer/Portable:

– $400B business in 2011, growing by 17% from 2010

– Smartphones are expected to be the major segment driver

– Phone and tablet experiences are proliferating

– Cloud Computing opening up new user experiences

– Performance@power, battery life, form factor

– Much more integration, “all in one” adjacent capabilities

36

Consumer/Portables Update

Portable and consumer electronics production totaled

$400B in 2011, growing by over 17% from the 2010 base…

37

2010 2011 2012 20142013 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

$Bn

$400

$800

$600

$200

0

kc212.b es-INEMI con sume r

6.6% CAAGR

2011-2017

3.6% CAAGR2017-2023

$587Bn

$708Bn

2011

$400Bn

26% of



ROW

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% Production 2010

Credit:

Prismark

Feb 2012

Smartphones are expected to continue to be the major

driver of consumer/portables over the next 5 years.

38

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500M Units

2009 2010 2012 2013 20152011 2014 2016

Kc212.146mvc - unit ship

175300

475650

850

1,050

1,260

1,500

970

1,145M

1,320M

1,455M1,550M

1,700M

1,840M

1,960M

2,100M

1,020 980

900

850

790

700

600

Total Branded:

Smartphones:

Non-Smartphones:

CAAGR 2011-2016

7.6%

-9.3%25.9%

… This growth is primarily driven by smartphones ($60Bn)

Credit:

Prismark

Feb 2012

Expected Internet Traffic by 2016

(Source: Cisco VNI)

• 130 Exabytes run-rate of global data traffic

– 130x the amount of data generated in 2000

– Mobile internet traffic CAGR 78% from 2011 to 2016

• 22% of mobile/wireless data will be offloaded to WiFi

• Generating the mobile data traffic:

– Asia/Pacific 40%, Western Europe 22.56%, North America 18.18%, ROW 19.26%

– Smartphones 48.3%, laptops/notebooks 24.2%, tablets 10%

– 60% of mobile users (~3B people) will generate >1GB of mobile data

traffic/month, compared to just 0.5% of the mobile users today.

– Cloud-based and Machine-to-Machine mobile traffic

• By Application:

– Mobile video 70.5%

– Web/data 20.0%

– Machine-to-Machine 4.7%

– Mobile File Sharing, Mobile Gaming, Mobile VOIP 4.8%

39

Credit: Cisco,

Visual Networking Index (VNI)

from crn.com Feb 2012

40

• User Experience

– More intuitive user interfaces

– Touch panel, Multiple Sensors

– Gesture & Voice Recognition

– Fast, Responsive, Predictive

– Machine to Machine (Sensors, e-Wallet)

– Ubiquitous wireless infrastructure

– Wearable, Bendable

• Form Factor Variety

– Thinner & Lighter, Smaller X/Y/Z

– Maximum usable screen space

– Portable ≤5”, 7” to 12” devices, Wearables

• Performance and Battery Life

– Lower power, better performance

– Smaller, thinner, longer lasting batteries

Roadmap Key Drivers Photo Credit:cnet.com, apple.com,

mobiledia.com, devicenation.com

41

Key Roadmap Needs • More Integration, More Convergence

– Tablets and Phones delivering entertainment, gaming, browsing

– Thin/small/light form factors

– Demand for increased I/O, graphics performance

– Continued trend for silicon integration (SOCs, SiPs, MCPs, MCMs, 3D)

– Cloud computing of Data, GPS, Maps, Video Streaming,… (Cloud Phones)

– Desire to link healthcare to mobile life, consumer devices, wearables

– Data transfer & security, sensor reliability, software integration

– Cloud & software to span multiple devices, small to large screens

– Interoperability & communications standards

• Lower Cost

– Mobile systems volume surpassing desktop systems; cost pressure

– More capability & integration will all drive increased cost to the system

– Meeting Environmental & “Green” requirements at neutral cost

Key Roadmap Needs • System performance will increase over time

– Power to trend flat-to-slightly-lower over time

– Memory bandwidth demand will continuously increase.

– Integration will drive SOCs, SIPs, MCPs, MCMs, 3D Stacking

– Number and speed of I/O continues to scale

• HDI boards will enable both integration and smaller form factors

– Increased industry capacity, capability at a lower cost

– Ball pitches down to 0.3mm at lower cost

• Materials – thin & light metal/plastic enclosures, multi-touch panels

– Water-resistant, scratch-resistant, easy to maintain

– Wearable – Flexible/bendable, thin, light, robust

• Battery Life & Recharge

– Smaller, thinner and not a limiter to chassis Z, efficiency & capacity

– Integration of power interfaces to recharge (connector formats, wireless battery charging).

• Supply Chain complexity is difficult to see until there’s a crisis

– Contingency planning & business continuity

42

iNEMI 2013 Roadmap,

Medical PEG Webinar

Fred Sporon-Fiedler,

Micro Systems Eng.

May 17, 2012

MEDICAL PEG CHAPTER CONTRIBUTORS

• Fred Sporon-Fiedler, Micro Systems Engineering - Chair

• Anthony Primavera - Micro Systems Engineering

• Celeste Fralick - Intel

• Girish Wable – Jabil

• Jean-Vincent Le Bé- Valtronic

• William Burdick - GE Research

• Chuck Richardson - iNEMI

An MST Company

Overview

• Medical Electronics Market and Trends

• 2013 Medical PEG Chapter Highlights

– Equipment types

– Examples

– Spreadsheet updates/change highlights

• Summary/Conclusion

46

Medical Market and Trends

• Globally, the number of persons 60 and older was 600

million in 2000. It is expected to double to 1.2 billion by

2025 (W.H.O.)

• There are over 40 million persons in the U.S. over 65 years

of age (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Currently, the U.S. spends 1.75 Trillion dollars (over 16%

of its gross domestic product) on health care

• It is estimated that 2012 annual spending on medical

devices / electronics is approaching 100 Billion dollars

• Emerging countries (esp. China) will become significant

innovation, manufacturing and consumption centers for

medical technologies over next decade.

MEDICAL MARKET- High Potential

Bubble Chart Ref: IBM Institute for Business Value,” The future of connected health devices”

> 3 BILLION POTENTIAL CUSTOMERS FOR

CONNECTED HEALTH DEVICES

MEDICAL MARKET

2010 2011 2012 20142013 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

2011

$91Bn6% of


4.4% CAAGR2011-2017

3.9% CAAGR

2017-2023

$118Bn

$148Bn

$Bn

$100

$200

$150

$50

0

N212 .bes-INEMI med


ROW

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% Production 2010

Source: Prismark 2012 iNEMI Update

49

Medical Market

• Market size: 100 B$ Electronics Revenue

• 2010 Non-IT Medical Units

Medical Market Economics

US is out of step with other developed nations

51

Market Observations

• Alignment of US healthcare cost/performance impacting

electronics piece of supply chain today.

– Price pressures

– Pay for performance on new therapies

• Market size predictions may be conservative:

– Enormous size of “worried well” population coupled with

proliferation of cell-phone based health monitors could be a

paradigm shift- “Clinic-connected ECG in every pocket”

– Significant growth of markets in emerging countries over roadmap

timeframe- Today ~ 10%

52 52

2013 Medical PEG Chapter • Market Environment and Economics Of Medical Electronics

Market Price pressures throughout health care value chain

- High Growth of Tele-Medicine using multi functional portable

devices.

- Continued migration from prescriptive to preventive medicine

will drive increase in portable/wearable medical monitoring

devices.

- Emerging markets expected to have double digit growth.

- Focus on lower cost diagnostic equipment for developing

nations and rural areas.

- Regional assembly, design and distribution expected to

continue increase in SEA and China.

- U.S. market impacted by health care reform and conservative

regulatory stance by FDA.

53

Stents

PTCA Systems

Intravascular Brachytherapy

Atherectomy

-Glucose

-Thermometers

- Drug delivery

-Diagnostics

-Telemedicine

-Home Health Care

Equipment Types in Medical Chapter

Pacemakers

AICDs

Leads

Ablation Catheters

Pacemakers

AICDs

Leads

Ablation Catheters

-Cardiac Rhythm

Pacemakers, ICD’s

-Neurostimulators

-Cochlear devices

-Implantable monitor

-Leads

-Drug delivery

DATA TRANSFER AND ANALYSIS

IMPLANTABLE

PRODUCTS

PERSONAL

HEALTH CARE

Beating Heart Bypass Surgery

Minimally - Invasive

Vein Harvesting

Beating Heart Bypass Surgery

Minimally - Invasive

Vein Harvesting

MRI

CT

SONOGRAM

BLOOD ANALYSIS

DIAGNOSTIC

AND

MONITORING

54

Market Drivers in Medical Imaging

– Increased health awareness and preventive care leading to an

increased demand for diagnostic and imaging systems.

– Healthcare demands of 78M “US baby boomers” … clinician

shortage, global aging, technology expectation

– Development of higher power systems capable of higher patient

throughput, higher resolution, and a greater ability to discriminating

individual tissue types, et al.

– Medical imaging using video (for specific applications).

55

Market Drivers in Implantable Medical • Implantable therapy device modalities increasing

– New therapies in Cardiac Devices (4 chamber pacing/shocks)

– Implantable monitoring

– Neurostimulation therapies

– Opthalmic devices, deep brain stimulation etc…

• The average YoY growth rate for implantable products has been between 15-18% for the last 10 years , but slowing in U.S. due to regulatory shifts.

• Remote monitoring is becoming defacto standard. Increased demand for “external wireless telemetry”

Example: >250,000 patients are currently enrolled in

home / remote monitoring system.

These systems are communication devices that interact

with the implanted device and a host network system.

Image from S.K. Kelly, et. al. : “A Hermetic Wireless Subretinal Neurostimulator for Vision Prostheses."

IEEE Trans. on Biomedical Engineering, Vol. 58, No. 11, 2011, pp. 3197-3205.

Implantable Market: Example Technology

57

>300,000 defibrillator implants per year

Shock

Delivered

Tachy Arrhythmia Therapy with ICD (Implantable Cardiac

Defibrillator)

Extending the lives of people whose hearts beat too fast

Implantable Market: Example Technology 700V, 35A

58

Heart Failure Therapy: 5 year mortality rates as high as 50%,

Affects > 14M people (US, Europe & Japan)

Active technology developments on Miniaturization of

therapy: ~12 cc to < 1 cc device

Implantable Market: Example Technology

Pacemakers – Currently the largest medical device market

US Annual:

– 750Kpatients/yr diagnosed

59

Current Market Drivers in Consumer Medical

• Broad range of devices being brought to market

Connected monitoring of biometric data

Game changer in health care cost model?

• Examples:

46 Continua Telehealth

certified devices in 2012

Technology currently under deploymnent in UK by

Lloyd’s Pharmacy

Research Spotlight

• Total Integration of biometric sensing/diagnostics/cloud computing

• 10M$ Qualcomm “Tricorder” Xprize contest launched in Spring 2012

• First place team wins 7M$.

• Mission: Develop a portable (<5 lbs) device that can diagnose 12 health conditions (in absence of a health care provider/facility) and monitor 5 vital signs.

• Contest will run from 2012 – 2015

• Has potential to generate new health care paradigm

• Advances in artificial intelligence, wireless sensing, imaging diagnostics, lab-on-a-chip, and molecular biology to meet mission

http://www.xprize.org/prize/qualcomm-tricorder-x-prize

http://www.qualcommtricorderxprize.org/files/qtxp.org/QTXP_Guidelines_20120320v1.pdf

TRICORDER is a trademark of CBS Studios, Inc








http://www.qualcommtricorderxprize.org/files/qtxp.org/QTXP_Guidelines_20120320v1.pdf

61

Product Needs

•Reliability: Needs are primarily Driven by Implantables

•Growth of portable segment will force alignment with Cell

phones

Addition of corrosive environment testing requirement in 2013 - Creep corrosion

Courtesy: Prajbit Singh

62

• Example of differences

• Consumer portables are weeks to years; implantables are years

– Heavily influenced by regulatory

– Product qualification time lengthy

– Long production times (Geography Dependant)

Medical PEG Roadmap Highlights

63

• Example of differences from last

• Emphasis on 3D SiP and Integrated Passives

Medical PEG Roadmap Highlights

Broader deployment of portable medical devices will

accelerate Miniaturization drive:

-Use of 3D SiP technology (w/wo TSV)

-Integration of discretes onto Si based integrated passive

devices (for high volume products or stable topologies in low

volume products)

Source: ASE Group

64

Medical PEG Summary/Conclusion

• Market is large and growing. Opportunity is large.

• Updates from Last Roadmap

- Continued emphasis on huge potential and impact of Portable

equipment and wearable electronics and required data

handling.

- Increased emphasis on impact of Emerging countries

- Emphasis on Miniaturization via 3D SiP and IPD’s.

- Addition of corrosive environment mitigations in reliability

section.

• Status of Completion - 95% spreadsheet and chapter completion

iNEMI 2013 Roadmap,

Office Systems PEG Webinar

David Lober, Intel

May 17, 2012

66

Office System PEG

•Office System PEG includes:

• Computers and Office Equipment

•Computers: desktop PCs, laptop PCs, workstations

•Computer Peripherals: printers, scanners, keyboards, monitors, PC

cameras

•Storage Systems: hard disk drives, SAN/NAS

•Office Equipment: photocopiers, fax machines, digital projectors

• PEG focus is on Desktop and Notebook PCs for roadmap technology

drivers

Executive Summary

• Office: 2011 vs 2013

– System prices continue to ratchet lower - outlook for

continued market growth in mature and emerging markets

• Notebook computers reach <$300

– New category emerging in office computing: Tablets

– Expect laptop computers will evolve into laptop/tablet mixed

designs – detachable and convertible types

• Office laptops will seek to duplicate the tablet experience but still

provide the traditional PC experience when required

• All mobile vectors for the laptop PCs will be accelerated to enable

the convertible systems

• Enabling this direction will be in direct tension with the

continuing need to drive PC costs down

– Technology Challenges: Low power, increased

density/smaller form factor, increased performance@ same

power, battery efficiency

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• Future focus is on system user experience

– Primary focus is on improving the mobile user experience but has implications to Desktop systems as well

– Form Factor – sleeker, smaller, thinner and denser (x,y,z)

– Interactive: Wide adoption of touch panel technology and sensors on board

– Increased Performance: Increased performance at same or lower power and cost levels. Improved system wide responsiveness

– Aggressive trends to lower system power

• More efficient VRs/power supplies, smaller, longer lasting batteries, improved efficiency for compute architectures…

Office: Roadmap Key Drivers

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Office: Roadmap Key Drivers

• Cost

– Continued ASP decline expected

– Notebook cost pressure accelerating as Notebooks volume begins to overtake Desktop – 3:1

– Form factors ushering in the new user experience will drive increased cost to most all system components

• Integration: Denser “I/O rich” components driven by platform silicon integration and increased features

– Continued trend for system silicon integration (SOCs, SiPs, MCPs, MCMs…)

– 3D packaging will emerge and eventually move into mainstream driven by its advantages of flexible integration, power savings, and form factor reduction.

Office: Key Roadmap Needs – Feedback Requested

• HDI boards: increased industry capacity and lower cost

• Increased industry capacity and lower cost for thin metal

enclosures/chassis or structurally equivalent plastics

• Thin package substrates and die thinning technology

• 3D packaging with die stacking and TSVs

• Lower profile components: disk drives, connectors, ICs,

fans/heatsinks, keyboards, …

• Better batteries: more efficient, much smaller but with equivalent

capacity. Prismatic vs cell technology to enable thin form factors

• Lower touch panel costs

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iNEMI 2013 Roadmap,

High-End Systems PEG Webinar

Dale Becker, IBM

May 17, 2012

High End Systems PEG

High-End Systems electronics equipment can be grouped into 3

major categories: high performance computing, data centers

and communications. Examples of products in these segments

are listed below.

• HPC: Mainframes,

• Data Centers : Server Farms

• Communications: Small Office/Home Equipment: • low-end switches and routers, modems; Enterprise Equipment: mid-

range switches and routers, PBXs, VoIP phones; Service Provider

Equipment: wireless base stations, central office switches, cable modem

termination systems, VoIP and IPTV equipment, core routers, WiMAX

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Server System Industry

Trends/Roadmap Drivers • Cost

– Increasing cost pressure as system capacity grows by processor cores/socket, high-bandwidth memory, virtualization and networking integration while reducing the number of physical devices in a system.

• Server power and power density at the chip level and rack level will be constant

– Increase in cores/chip in same power envelope

– Increase in system and memory bus speeds in same power envelope

– Virtualization and Energy efficient features will stress mechanical interconnects (delta of peak power, average power and power-saving modes)

– High-efficiency power conversion close to the load enables higher performance in the same power envelope

• Interconnect Technology to enable higher bandwidth

– Limited use of optical and other Off-board technologies will seek to extend FR4 life/cost structure while increasing bandwidth

– Low-loss board technology and high bandwidth connectors will be adopted where absolutely needed

– Incrementally tighter pitch on interconnect to increase bandwidth density if cost and power per Gb/s is maintained.

Server System Industry Trends

• Thermal management demand continues

– Enabling denser, smaller form factors from increased

integration using technologies such as 3D IC

• Data Center Trends

– Desire for higher ambient temperatures for overall data center

power savings

– ASHRAE Standards change for higher data center

temperature and humidity

– Tendency to have machines in more corrosive environments

• Sourcing issues such as counterfeit parts.

Enhancing the High-End Systems Chapter Content

• Technology considerations for the 10 year outlook

– What role does the optics play in achieving the bandwidth

growth?

• Guidance on the roadmap interconnect cost objectives for optics

and high-speed copper.

– Power limitations across the high-end systems and how that

impacts the roadmap

• E.g., chip power, system power is currently constant after years

of growth.

• How does this impact choices on content, interconnect

technology choice?

– Advanced high-density packaging, including 3D, being

integrated into high-end systems. Insight into how and when

this technology is introduced.

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High-End Systems Chapter

• Challenges to complete the High-End Systems Chapter

– High-end Systems is new: Merging of Large Computers and

NETCOM

– Initial draft is available but needs these contributions

• Awaiting updated Prismark Data to forecast the trends

• Quantifying the components mentioned in the situation analysis.

– Especially with the NETCOM aspects

• Input of quantities into key attributes spreadsheet and review of

existing entries

– Especially with the NETCOM portions

• Review of the section on Critical Infrastructure Changes

– Feedback from regional areas of the globe on text and

spreadsheet data

• Contact Chuck Richardson with your interest in helping editing

process

iNEMI 2013 Roadmap,

PEG Webinar - Summary

Bob Pfahl, iNEMI May 17, 2012

Summary Comments

• Bob mentioned that the digital revolution in the electronics industry has

been replaced by the system revolution.

• Bob also observed that a key issue with the Aerospace/Defense PEG

was the replacement for silicon switches.

• He also mentioned that MEMS were a fast growing component of

Automotive, Military, Portable/Consumer and Medical products.

• Another observation was that the rapid growth in data traffic caused by

streaming video is driving high-end computing and datacom.

• Bob also noticed that there is a major convergence of medical and

portable products caused by consumer monitoring using wireless

technologies.

• Bob was also impressed by the level of discussion and collaboration

this cycle between the High-End, Optoelectronics, Packaging PEG,

TWGs and OIDA, MIT Connector groups.

• A final observation was that multiple product sectors are addressing

corrosion issues.

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Asian Roadmap Workshop • 2013 iNEMI Roadmap Asian Workshop

• Thursday, June 14, 2012, 0900 to 1700 hours

• One day meeting held at Tin Ka Ping Hall, G/F, Lo Ka Chung University Center, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Clearwater Bay, Kowloon Hong Kong, China

• Intention of attracting Asian regional feedback on roadmap issues

• Elevate interest level in 2013 iNEMI Roadmap participation

• Afford valuable networking opportunities during and after the workshop

• Selected TWG presentations: Packaging, Board Assy., Organic PCB, Modeling, Final Assembly, Large Area, Flexible Electronics, Solid State Illumination, Environmentally Conscious, Ceramic Substrates and Test.

• Register by May 24 for free admission: www.iNEMI.org iNEMI membership is not required to participate in this workshop. All Roadmap

workshops will be free for members and for non-members who register before the

workshop deadline.

– All workshop participants will receive the PDF of the large executive summary for

free in March 2013.

– Non-members who register after the pre-registration deadline must pay a $400

registration fee, but this amount may be used as a credit toward the purchase of the

2013 iNEMI Roadmap CD (which sells for $3000).

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European Workshop

• Hosted by iNEMI at the NH Hotel Friedrichstrasse, Friedrichstrasse 96, 10117 Berlin, Germany on Tuesday, June 12, 2012 from 09:00 - 18:00.


• Afford valuable networking opportunities during and after the workshop

• Local content maximized for facilitating feedback!

• Selected Medical and Automotive PEG Highlights and TWG presentations: Packaging, MEMS/Sensors and Environmentally Conscious Electronics followed by panel discussions.

• Register by May 21 for free admission: www.iNEMI.org

– iNEMI membership is not required to participate in this workshop.


free in March 2013.

– Non-members who register after the deadline must pay a $400 registration fee,

but this amount may be used as a credit toward the purchase of the 2013 iNEMI

Roadmap CD (which sells for $3000).

– Registration includes continental breakfast, lunch, coffee break and social

gathering.

North American Workshop

• Held in conjunction with IEEE's ECTC 2012 on May 29th

from 7:30 a.m. - 6:00 p.m. PDT at the Sheraton San Diego

Hotel & Marina in meeting room Nautilus 3, San Diego,

California 92101


• Afford valuable networking opportunities during and after

the workshop

• Review and discuss TWG presentations

• Register by May 24 for free admission: www.iNEMI.org

– iNEMI membership is not required to participate in this workshop.


free in March 2013.

– Non-members who register after the deadline must pay a $400 registration fee, but

this amount may be used as a credit toward the purchase of the 2013 iNEMI

Roadmap CD (which sells for $3000).

– Registration includes all refreshments

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