Media Research Center - Biden Voter Messaging Survey AnalysisBiden+Voter+Messaging+Survey... ·...

Biden Voter Messaging Survey Analysis

N=1,750 RespondentsN=769 Oversample

November 9 - 18, 2020Margin of Error +/- 2.34%

Oversample Margin of Error +/- 3.53%

Methodology

• Online survey among 1,750 Biden voters in select states conducted November 9 – 18, 2020. States included in this survey were Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Respondents were selected randomly from opt-in panel participants.

• Sampling controls were used to ensure that a proportional and representative number of respondents were interviewed from such demographic groups as age, gender, race, and geographic region.

• Gender breakdown: 48% men – 52% women• ± 2.34% overall margin of error at the 95% confidence interval for overall survey. M.O.E.s

for subgroups are larger.• ± 3.53% overall margin of error at the 95% confidence interval for oversample. M.O.E.s

for subgroups are larger.

2

Over one-quarter (26%) of voters surveyed said they cast their ballot for Joe Biden on Election Day.

26%

19%

23%

16%

7% 6%

2%

24%

15%

24%

18%

8%10%

1%

On Election Day 1 - 7 Days beforeElection Day

8 - 14 Days beforeElection Day



More than 28 Daysbefore Election Day

Do Not Recall

Base OS

When did you cast your ballot for Joe Biden?

3

By a 25-point margin, those who cast their ballot for Joe Biden in select states did so via absentee or vote-by-mail ballot.

27%

21%

52%

1%

24%

18%

57%

*

In person on Election Day In person during the Early Voting period Absentee or Vote-by-Mail ballot Do Not Recall

Base OS

By what method did you cast your ballot for Joe Biden?

4

The vast majority of Biden voters say they decided to vote for Biden over the last few months or nearly always vote for the Democrat candidate.

7% 6%10%

39%36%

5%3%

9%

41% 42%

On Election Day Within days of Election Day Over the last few weeks Over the past few months I always/nearly always vote forthe Democrat candidate for

President

Base OS

When did you decide to vote for Joe Biden?

5

Messaging SeriesYou will now read a series of questions. After each, please indicate whether or not you were aware of the

information.

6

Message (Base N1750) Yes, Aware No, Not Aware DIFF

At the time you cast your vote for president, were you aware that under President Trump's policies the U.S. last year became energy independent – exporting more crude oil than we imported – for the first time in recorded history? 39% 51% -12

At the time you cast your vote for president, were you aware that the Commerce Department reported (on October 29) the best economic growth ever -- an annualized rate of 33.1%? 40% 49% -9

At the time you cast your vote for president, were you aware that evidence exists, including bank transactions the FBI is currently investigating, that directly links Joe Biden and his family to a corrupt financial arrangement between a Chinese company with connections to the Chinese Communist Party that was secretly intended to provide the Biden family with tens of millions of dollars in profits?

40% 45% -5

At the time you cast your vote for president, did you know that the president had negotiated three different peace agreementsbetween Arab countries and Israel, something never done before, and for which he’s been nominated for three separate Nobel Peace Prizes?

47% 44% +3

At the time you cast your vote for president, were you aware that in just the five months from May through September, the economy created more than 11 million new jobs? 50% 39% +11

At the time you cast your vote for president, were you aware of the Trump administration's unprecedented $10 billion effort to expedite effective treatments to fight COVID-19, with the promise of 300 million doses of a safe vaccine available to the publicas soon as next year?

53% 36% +17

At the time you cast your vote for president, were you aware that a woman who once worked as a staffer for Joe Biden had accused him of sexually assaulting her in the 1990s, and that at least eight individuals had come forward to corroborate severalaspects of her story?

56% 35% +21

At the time you cast your vote for president, were you aware that Joe Biden chose as his running mate and successor Kamala Harris, rated the most left wing Senator in America, even more leftist that Bernie Sanders, a self-described socialist? 66% 25% +41

At the time you cast your vote for president, did you know that countries throughout Europe had enacted a massive COVID-19 shut down earlier this year, which decimated their economies, and that in most countries COVID-19 has returned anyway? 75% 18% +577

Over 1-in-3 (40%) Biden voters were aware of the FBI investigation into the Biden family when they cast their vote for President.

Gender Race Ideology 2020 Vote

40.0% 42% 38% 42% 36%44%

35%

49%

39% 39% 38% 44%32% 37% 41%

46%

40%

45% 45% 45% 42%53% 47% 46%

36%

45% 46% 44% 43% 49% 48% 49%

43%

40%

Total

Male

Female

White

Black

Asian

Hispanic

Republican

Independent

Democrat

Arizona

Georgia

Michigan

Nevada

North Carolina

Pennsylvania

Wisconsin

Gender Race StateParty ID

At the time you cast your vote for president, were you aware that evidence exists, including bank transactions the FBI is currently investigating, that directly links Joe Biden and his family to a corrupt financial arrangement between a Chinese company with connections to the Chinese Communist Party that was secretly intended to provide the Biden family with tens of millions of dollars in profits? (% Aware, % Not Aware)

8

Among Biden voters who were unaware of the FBI investigation, nearly 80% would have still voted for Biden had they known the information.

79%

4% 4% 4% 5% 5%

Still Voted for BidenAnyway

Switched your vote toDonald Trump

Voted for a third-partycandidate for President

Skipped voting forPresident, but would have

voted for other offices

Would not have voted atall

Refused

Among those that were unaware (N1058)

If you had been aware of this actual evidence in emails, texts, testimony and banking transactions being investigated by the FBI, would you have:

16% Not Voting for Biden

9

Nearly half (49%) of Biden voters surveyed were not aware of the Commerce Department report at the time they cast their vote for

President.


40.0% 45%36%

43%33% 33%

53%46%

41% 40% 38%46%

37% 37% 37%

46%

41%

49% 45%52% 46%

58% 54%

37% 43%

48% 50% 51% 46% 50% 51% 55%

43%

47%

Total

Male

Female

White

Black

Asian

Hispanic

Republican

Independent

Democrat

Arizona

Georgia

Michigan

Nevada

North Carolina

Pennsylvania

Wisconsin


At the time you cast your vote for president, were you aware that the Commerce Department reported (on October 29) the best economic growth ever -- an annualized rate of 33.1%? (% Aware, % Not Aware)

10

Nearly 9-in-10 (88%) Biden voters who were unaware of the Commerce Department report would still have voted for Biden had they been aware

of the information.

88%

3% 1% 2% 3% 3%







Refused


If you had been aware of the Commerce Department report indicating the economic growth rate, would you have:


11

Half (50%) of Biden voters in select states were aware of the job creation in the country when they cast their vote for President.

Gender Race Ideology 2020 Vote50.0%57%

44%53%

44% 43%

47% 53% 54% 49% 51% 55%46% 49% 53% 50% 49%

39% 35%43%

36%

48% 46%

39% 37% 35% 41% 37% 39% 41% 39% 40% 40% 40%

Total

Male

Female

White

Black

Asian

Hispanic

Republican

Independent

Democrat

Arizona

Georgia

Michigan

Nevada

North Carolina

Pennsylvania

Wisconsin


12

At the time you cast your vote for president, were you aware that in just the five months from May through September, the economy created more than 11 million new jobs? (% Aware, % Not Aware)

Just over 1-in-10 (11%) Biden voters would not have voted for Biden had they been aware of the job creation in the US from May to September.

86%

5% 2% 2% 2% 3%







Refused


If you had been aware of the 11 million jobs created from May to September, would you have:


13

By a 3-point margin, Biden voters in select states were aware of President Trump’s peace agreements at the time they cast their vote for President.


47.0%55%

39%

51%

39% 34%

46% 50% 52%

44%

46% 51%

44% 43% 46%

53%

43%44%37%

50%

40%

50%58%

41% 43% 38%

46%

43% 39%

46% 46% 47%

38%

46%

Total

Male

Female

White

Black

Asian

Hispanic

Republican

Independent

Democrat

Arizona

Georgia

Michigan

Nevada

North Carolina

Pennsylvania

Wisconsin


14

At the time you cast your vote for president, did you know that the president had negotiated three different peace agreements between Arab countries and Israel, something never done before, and for which he’s been nominated for three separate Nobel Peace Prizes? (% Aware, % Not

Aware)

Less than 1-in-10 (9%) Biden voters would reconsider their vote for Joe Biden had they known about the Middle East peace agreements.

87%

4% 1% 2% 2% 3%







Refused


If you had been aware of the Middle East peace agreements brokered by President Trump, would you have:


15

Over half (56%) of Joe Biden voters surveyed were aware of the sexual assault allegations against Biden at the time they cast their vote.

Gender Race Ideology 2020 Vote56.0% 58% 54% 59%

51% 54% 54% 60% 57% 55% 50%59%

52%59% 53%

62% 58%

35% 35% 36% 33%42% 42%

30% 31% 34% 36% 39% 33% 38% 33%42%

31% 33%

Total

Male

Female

White

Black

Asian

Hispanic

Republican

Independent

Democrat

Arizona

Georgia

Michigan

Nevada

North Carolina

Pennsylvania

Wisconsin


16

At the time you cast your vote for president, were you aware that a woman who once worked as a staffer for Joe Biden had accused him of sexually assaulting her in the 1990s, and that at least eight individuals had come forward to corroborate several aspects of her story? (% Aware, %

Not Aware)

Nearly 3-in-4 (73%) Biden voters who were unaware of the sexual assault allegations against Joe Biden would still vote for him had they known.

73%

5% 5% 5% 5% 7%







Refused


If you had been aware that a former staffer of Joe Biden accused him of sexual assault in the 1990s, would you have:


17

Two-thirds (66%) of Biden voters in select states were aware of Kamala Harris’ rating as the most left wing Senator in America at the time they

cast their vote for President.


66.0% 67% 66% 68% 63% 57%67%

55%68% 67% 61%

69%62% 68% 68% 70% 68%

25% 27% 24% 23% 29%39%

24%32%

23% 26% 28% 24% 26% 25% 26% 25% 23%

Total

Male

Female

White

Black

Asian

Hispanic

Republican

Independent

Democrat

Arizona

Georgia

Michigan

Nevada

North Carolina

Pennsylvania

Wisconsin


18

At the time you cast your vote for president, were you aware that Joe Biden chose as his running mate and successor Kamala Harris, rated the most left wing Senator in America, even more leftist that Bernie Sanders, a self-described socialist? (% Aware, % Not Aware)

Over 1-in-10 (12%) Biden voters unaware of Harris’ rating at the time they cast their vote would not vote for Biden had they known the

information.

83%

4% 3% 2% 3% 5%







Refused


If you had been aware that Joe Biden’s running mate Senator Kamala Harris was found to be more left-wing than Bernie Sanders, would you have:


19

By 17-points, Biden voters surveyed were aware of the Trump administration’s efforts to fight the Coronavirus at the time they cast their

vote for President.

Gender Race Ideology 2020 Vote53.0% 54% 52% 56%

45%55% 50%

58% 55% 52% 56% 54% 49% 48% 54% 53% 54%

36% 35% 37% 33%45% 40% 38% 34% 33% 37% 33% 33% 37% 40% 37% 39% 34%

Total

Male

Female

White

Black

Asian

Hispanic

Republican

Independent

Democrat

Arizona

Georgia

Michigan

Nevada

North Carolina

Pennsylvania

Wisconsin


20

At the time you cast your vote for president, were you aware of the Trump administration's unprecedented $10 billion effort to expedite effective treatments to fight COVID-19, with the promise of 300 million doses of a safe vaccine available to the public as soon as next year? (% Aware, %

Not Aware)

Over 8-in-10 (85%) Biden voters who were unaware of the Trump administration’s efforts to fight COVID-19 would still vote for Biden had

they been aware of the information.

85%

4% 2% 3% 2% 4%







Refused


If you had been aware of the Trump administration’s efforts to fight COVID-19, including the vaccine, would you have:


21

By 12-points, Biden voters in select states were unaware that the US became energy-independent last year at the time they cast their vote for

President.


39.0%

46%

32%41%

33%44% 40%

48%

41% 38% 37% 43%36% 34% 40% 39% 42%

51%

45%

56%48%

58%51% 53%

46%

47% 53% 53%45% 51% 53% 55% 49% 47%

Total

Male

Female

White

Black

Asian

Hispanic

Republican

Independent

Democrat

Arizona

Georgia

Michigan

Nevada

North Carolina

Pennsylvania

Wisconsin


22

At the time you cast your vote for president, were you aware that under President Trump's policies the U.S. last year became energy independent – exporting more crude oil than we imported – for the first time in recorded history? (% Aware, % Not Aware)

Of those that were unaware of the US’ energy independence at the time they cast their vote for President, 88% would still vote for Biden after

learning the information.

88%

4% 1% 1% 2% 3%







Refused


If you had been aware that under President Trump, the United States became energy independent for the first time on record, would you have:


23

Three-fourths (75%) of Biden voters in select states were aware of the effect of the COVID-19 shutdowns in Europe at the time they cast their

vote for President.


75.0% 76% 74% 78%68%

76% 72% 73% 79% 74% 74% 78% 76% 73% 76% 78%71%

18% 18% 19% 16%25% 23% 21% 18% 15% 20% 16% 16% 19% 21% 20% 17% 19%

Total

Male

Female

White

Black

Asian

Hispanic

Republican

Independent

Democrat

Arizona

Georgia

Michigan

Nevada

North Carolina

Pennsylvania

Wisconsin


24

At the time you cast your vote for president, did you know that countries throughout Europe had enacted a massive COVID-19 shut down earlier this year, which decimated their economies, and that in most countries COVID-19 has returned anyway? (% Aware, % Not Aware)

The Biden voters who were unaware of the COVID-19 issues in Europe would largely still vote for Biden had they known the information.

83%

5% 2% 3% 2%6%







Refused


If you had been aware that European countries who shut down due to COVID-19 decimated their economies and COVID-19 is still an issue in those countries, would you have:


25

By 24-points, Biden voters were aware of the censorship by Facebook and Twitter against Trump and his campaign.

Gender Race Ideology 2020 Vote58.0% 63%

53%62%

44%

53%62% 62% 58% 57% 57% 59% 55% 58% 60% 58% 54%

34% 30%37%

29%

47%

42%32% 31% 33% 35% 31% 35% 33% 31% 36% 35% 36%

Total

Male

Female

White

Black

Asian

Hispanic

Republican

Independent

Democrat

Arizona

Georgia

Michigan

Nevada

North Carolina

Pennsylvania

Wisconsin


26

Are you aware that Facebook and Twitter censored President Trump or his campaign 65 times in the past year, but neither platform censored Biden or his campaign a single time? (% Yes, % No)

By 20-points, Biden voters were unaware that Facebook is still allowing Antifa factions on the platform.


32.0% 37%27%

34%25%

39% 39% 37%30% 32% 32%

40%

21%32% 35% 32% 32%

52% 50% 54% 49%61%

53%46% 46% 51% 54% 48% 46%

59% 54% 53% 53% 51%

Total

Male

Female

White

Black

Asian

Hispanic

Republican

Independent

Democrat

Arizona

Georgia

Michigan

Nevada

North Carolina

Pennsylvania

Wisconsin


27

Are you aware that Facebook is still allowing Antifa factions to be on its platform while censoring and even banning dozens of conservative organizations that have never advocated violence toward anyone? (% Yes, % No)

More than half (60%) of Biden voters were unaware of social media platforms preventing users from sharing satirical images of Joe Biden.


25.0% 30%21% 26% 22%

37%27% 30%

23% 26% 23% 28%20%

27% 29% 25% 26%

60% 58% 63% 58%68%

56%64% 61% 64% 59% 59% 61% 63% 59% 62% 61% 59%

Total

Male

Female

White

Black

Asian

Hispanic

Republican

Independent

Democrat

Arizona

Georgia

Michigan

Nevada

North Carolina

Pennsylvania

Wisconsin


28

Are you aware that Facebook and Twitter prevented users from criticizing Joe Biden with satirical images of him acting inappropriately around women and children? (% Yes, % No)

Over 4-in-10 (42%) Biden voters were aware of traditional media outlets previously warning readers and viewers about the dangers of voting by

mail.


42.0% 41% 42% 42% 41%

54% 52% 53%

42% 41% 41% 45%37% 42% 44% 41% 41%

47% 50% 45% 47% 51%

35% 39% 37%

46% 49% 44% 46% 49% 46% 50% 50% 46%

Total

Male

Female

White

Black

Asian

Hispanic

Republican

Independent

Democrat

Arizona

Georgia

Michigan

Nevada

North Carolina

Pennsylvania

Wisconsin


29

Are you aware that traditional media outlets used to warn against the dangers of voting by mail? The New York Times told readers “votes cast by mail are less likely to be counted, more likely to be compromised and more likely to be contested.” (% Yes, % No)

Executive Summary

30

Executive Summary

• Biden voters were largely unaffected by the information included in this survey – more than 75% of voters that were not aware of the information prior to voting would not have changed their vote had they known the information.

• However, 6% of Biden voters who were unaware of this information would have changed their vote to President Trump had they been aware of these messaging points.

• Additionally, 17% of all Biden voters would have not voted for Biden if they were aware of one of these messages.

• In 6 of the 7 states surveyed, enough voters would have not voted for Joe Biden that those states would have gone to President Trump, giving Trump 311 electoral votes and re-electing him.

• Media Censorship stories are key• More than half of Biden voters surveyed were not aware that Facebook and Twitter prevented users from

posting satirical images of Biden, or that Antifa groups and pages were still active on Facebook• Most Effective Message:

• Energy Independence – 51% of Base Sample was not aware of this information when they voted for Biden• Least Effective Message:

• European COVID-19 Shutdowns – 75% of Base Sample was aware of this information when they voted for Biden

31

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