Meat trade emerging trends - UNECE · Long term world meat trade developments Based on FAO data...
Transcript of Meat trade emerging trends - UNECE · Long term world meat trade developments Based on FAO data...
Meat trade – emerging trends
Nils [email protected] +33 450402400
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agribusiness
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Experts in the 5
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World meat marketdevelopments
Actors – rising share of Asia
Differentiation – EU situation
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World animal-source food consumption
CAGR
+3.20%
+2.70%
+3.02%
+2.38%
+2.87%
Sharp growth in consumption
World animal-source food consumption
FAO Livestock and Fish Primary Equivalent, 1961-2011
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Seafood
Cheeses
Eggs
Offals
Meats
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Animal-source food per capita consumption
Huge variations in quantities, CAGRs & breakdown
Growth potential … mainly in the developing world
(kg/capita/year, max. 180kg)
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Cheese
Eggs
Offals
Meats
North America
South America
East Asia
South Asia
S.E. Asia
Oceania
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Cheese
Eggs
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Africa
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s o
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Seafood
Cheeses
Eggs
Offals
Meats
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Animal-source food consumption trends
Further decline in meat share
CAGR = +1.8% in total
Meats: +1.6%
Offal: +1.3%
Eggs: +2.1%
Cheeses: +1.6%
Seafood: +2.4%
World animal-source food consumption, OECD-FAO, 2010/2020
295
49
344
15
2
1760
14
7420
3
24129
34
163
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2010 Meats Offal Eggs Cheeses Seafood 2020
Mill
ions t
Source: Gira, based on OECD-FAO
520.3
623.2
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World meat consumption
CAGR
+3.01%
+1.85%
+4.98%
+2.99%
+1.59%
+1.64%
Growth in poultry meat and pork mainly
World animal-source food consumption
FAO Livestock and Fish Primary Equivalent, 1961-2011
0
100
200
300
400
500
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1963
1965
1967
1969
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1983
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1987
1989
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1997
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2003
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2007
2009
2011
Mill
ion
s o
f to
ns
Other animal-source foods
Other meats
Poultry meat
Pork
Sheep meat
Beef
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Meat consumption trends
Continuous rise in the poultry meat share of the
meat basket
CAGR = +1.6% in total
Beef: +0.9%
Sheep meat: +1.9%
Pork: +1.2%
Poultry meat: +2.1%
Others: +3.0%
World meat consumption, OECD-FAO, 2010/2020
65
+6
71
13
+3
16
110
+14
124
100
+24
124
+2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2010 Beef Sheep meat Pork Poultry meat Other meats 2020
Mill
ions t
Source: Gira, based on OECD-FAO
295.4
344.5
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Long term world meat trade developments
Based on FAO data – exports – includes intra-EU trade
Sheep = sheep + goat
From 3.5 to 44 mio t
Dynamic markets except for sheep meat
World meat trade in volumes, 1961-2013
CAGR= +5.0% in total
Beef: +4.0%
Sheep meat: +1.8%
Pork: +5.1%
Poultry meat: +8.0%
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w Beef
Pork
Poultry meat
Sheep meat
Source: Gira, based on FAO
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Long term world meat trade developments
In indices, poultry meat changes dwarf those of
other meats
World meat trade indices, 1961-2013 (vol., 1961=100)
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Poultry meat
Sheep meat
Source: Gira, based on FAO
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2015-2016: global meat market context
Changing domestic meat demand characteristics and apparent international competitiveness
2015 was a year of dramatic currency changewith sharply strengthening USD
60%
110%
160%
210%
260%
310%
360%
Jan
-08
Sep
-08
May
-09
Jan
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Sep
-10
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-11
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rre
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SD in
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08
Currency index per USD
RUB/USD
BRL/USD
EUR/USD
AUD/USD
JPY/USD
CNY/USD
14
World meat trade volumes – Dec 15 forecasts
2015: slight decrease (except Pk)… with US challenges
2016: positive trade growth (except for Sh) – especially Py
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-1.5%11
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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
(Mill
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t cw
e)
Fig SYN-GEN International Meat Trade Volumes, 2011-2016(f)
Sheepmeat
Pigmeat
Beef & Veal
Poultrymeat
Total: 29.1 mio t (-0.2%)
Total: 29.8 mio t(+2.4%)
Likely to be
higher growth
than this
World meat marketdevelopments
Actors – rising share of Asia
Differentiation – EU situation
16
World beef trade – GMC data
+ 9 mio tcwe, c15% of world production
Growing: CAGR +2.4% from 2000 to 2015
Asia share:
• Exports: from 9% in 2005 to 22% in 2015 (IN mainly, but also HK to CN)
• Imports: from 22% in 2005 to 42% in 2015
• 6 countries importing > 0.1 mio t each (CN – direct and grey through VN/HK, but also JP, KR & MY)
Asia doubled its share of world imports in 10 years
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World beef exporters, 2000-2015 World beef importers, 2000-2015
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2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mil
lio
n t
on
ne
s cw
e
Others
NZ
AU
IN
UY
PY
BR
AR
US
CA
EU
Source: Gira Meat Club
0
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2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mil
lio
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on
ne
s cw
e
Others
O.F.East
KR
JP
ME/NA
S.Am
US
CA
SU/RU
EU
Source: Gira Meat Club
17
World pork trade – GMC data
+ 8 mio tcwe, c6% of world prodution
Sharp growth in the 2000s, slower now: CAGR +5.4% since 2000
Asia share:
• Exports: from 7% in 2005 to 3% in 2015 (no Asian country exports > 0.1 mio t)
• Imports: from 46% in 2005 to 53% in 2015
• 4 countries importing > 0.1 mio t each (JP, CN, KR & HK)
Asia concentrating more than 50% of world imports
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World pork exporters, 2000-2015 World pork importers, 2000-2015
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3
4
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7
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9
2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mil
lio
n t
on
ne
s cw
e
Others
CN/HK
BR
MX
US
CA
CIS
EU
Source: Gira Meat Club
0
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3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mil
lio
n t
on
ne
s cw
e
Others
KR
JP
CN/HK
US
CA
SU/RU
EU
Source: Gira Meat Club
18
World poultry meat trade – GMC data
+ 11 mio tcwe, c15% of world production
Growing trade (despite some recent setback): CAGR +4.3%
Asia share:
• Exports: from 5% in 2005 to 10% in 2015 (HK, CN and TH > 0.1 mio t)
• Imports: from 24% in 2005 to 28% in 2015
• 8 countries importing > 0.1 mio t each ( HK, VN & JP > 0.5 mio t, + CN, TW, PH, SG & KR)
The least concentrated import market
38 countries > 0.1 mio t – Asia = + ¼ of the total
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World poultrymeat exporters, 2000-2015 World poultrymeat importers, 2000-2015
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mil
lio
n t
on
ne
s cw
e
Others
TH
CN/HK
BR
US
EU
Source: Gira Meat Club
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mil
lio
n t
on
ne
s cw
e
Others
JP
CN/HK
SSA
MENA
SU/RU
EU
Source: Gira Meat Club
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World sheep meat trade – GMC data
+ 1 mio tcwe, c8% of world production
Flat market: CAGR +0.6%, supply is the limiting factor
Asia share:
• Exports: from 5% in 2005 to 4% in 2015 (IN & PK > 10,000 t)
• Imports: from 17% in 2005 to 35% in 2015
• 5 countries importing > 10,000 t each (CN > 0.1 mio t, + MY, TW, JP, SG between 10 & 50,000 t)
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World sheepmeat exporters, 2000-2015 World sheepmeat importers, 2000-2015
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mil
lio
n t
on
ne
s cw
e
Others
NZ
AU
S.Am
CEECs
EU
Source: Gira Meat Club
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mil
lio
n t
on
ne
s cw
e
Others
O. F.East
CN
ME/NA
N.Am
SU/RU
EU
Source: Gira Meat Club
20
World meat importers
CN by far the major player – though not alone
Rising Asian imports and share of the total
Asia 2015 imports
- Beef: 2.8 mio t
05-15 CAGR +10.5%
- Pork: 2.6 mio t
05-15 CAGR +5.7%
- Poultry meat 3.2 mio t
05-15 CAGR +6.8%
- Sheep meat 0.3 mio t
05-15 CAGR +9.3%
- Offal 2.3 mio t
05-15 CAGR +13.5%
World meat importers/region, 2005/2015
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
05 15 05 15 05 15 05 15
Beef Pork Poultrymeat Sheepmeat
Oceania
N. Asia
S.E. Asia
S. Asia
Other Africa
MENA
Russia/CIS
Other W. Europe
EU-28
S. America
C. America
N. America
Source: Gira, based on Trademap
-
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016p
Imp
ort
s (0
00
t p
w)
Sheepmeat Grey +33.2%
Sheepmeat Direct+28.9%
Poultry Grey +4.5%
Poultry Direct +5.8%
Pork Grey +24.7%
Pork Direct +46.5%
Beef Grey +64.5%
Beef Direct +106.5%
C.A.G.R 2006-14 (%)
Source: Gira compilation
GMC15: Total CN imports: Direct + Grey ChannelsHuge variation in importance of grey channel between
species
Figures do not include offal… which has
higher grey channel shipments.
CAGR
+18%
1H16 CN imports are running at higher levels
than was forecast at GMC15
21
22
World meat exporters
IN the major player (Bf) + CN and TH (Py)
HK mostly reexports to CN (Bf, Pk, Py)
Asia Exports Bf and Py
Asia 2015 exports
- Beef: 1,5 mio t
05-15 CAGR +13.3%
- Pork: 0.2 mio t
05-15 CAGR -5.3%
- Poultry meat 1.1 mio t
05-15 CAGR +11.2%
- Sheep meat 0.04 mio t
05-15 CAGR -1.1%
- Offal 0.5 mio t
05-15 CAGR +16.6%
World meat exporters/region, 2005/2015
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
05 15 05 15 05 15 05 15
Beef Pork Poultrymeat Sheepmeat
Oceania
N. Asia
S.E. Asia
S. Asia
Other Africa
MENA
Russia/CIS
Other W. Europe
EU-28
S. America
C. America
N. America
Source: Gira, based on Trademap
World meat marketdevelopments
Actors – rising share of Asia
Differentiation – EU situation
24
Development of certifications
A tool to show FBOs are doing what is needed to:
• Provide safe foods
• Meet their responsibilities
Independent certifying body increases credibility
• Perceived by the consumer to be more solid and trustworthy than brands
BRC Global Standards’ and International Featured Standards (IFS) based on• ISO 9001 (quality control and assurance)
• Good Manufacturing Principles (cleaning & disinfection, pest control, maintenance, training)
• HACCP (Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point) principles
Initially focused on sanitary guarantees
25
Consumer questioning
Anti-meat lobbying is not a new issue
But it is gaining strength due to:
• New arguments
− Nutritional risks
− Public health fears (incl. AB)
− Animal welfare
− Environmental protection
− Frauds scandals
− What next?
• Modern communication
− More books, publications, documentaries, etc.
− Social networking
− Camera developments
− Dissemination of revolting images of cruelty to animals
• High profile people taking side
• Shoppers unconsciously looking for a justification to reduce their purchases due to economic
difficulties
Continued suspicions about meat
In a context of much anti-meat communication
Public health
Nutrition
Animal Welfare
Environment
Frauds
26
A saturated market
Shoppers overwhelmed by a variety of options
• And store owners have to make a preselection, deciding which products to put on the shelves
Raw meat purchase no more a daily must:
• Reduced energy needs
• Development of further processed meat products, with higher convenience content
• Widespread availability of other animal proteins
• Development of meat substitutes – often with taken names from the butchery vocabulary
Economic crisis
• Meat remains an expensive item
• Reduction of consumer spend
− Reduce meat quantities:
less on each purchase occasion
or less frequently
− Switch to cheaper products:
species (Bf Pk or Py)
or cuts (fillet minced)
More food options and less needs
With the added impact of the economic crisis
% of shoppers "satisfied with the price of
meat", 2011
27
Vegetarianism
4-5% vegetarians in the EU
• Estimates only given a lack of hard data
Developing
• Great increase in number of products in
modern retail and catering
• Multiplication of specialised retailers and
restaurants
Flexitarianism likely a more serious threat
Vegans – Vegetalians – Vegetarians
and Flexitarians...
% of vegetarians in the EU, 2014
28
Need to differentiate
Certification to meet society demands and
avoid/delay price wars
Need to differentiate
Competition
(incl. HD dvpt)
Regulatory
pressureConsumer
demands
Certification3rd party
Premium price
PriceNo win
BrandingTrust?
Value/cost?
29
Raw meat modern retailing differentiation schemes
Huge variations in % of
differentiated
• Reputed brands may reduce the
need for quality certification
• Highest share in Py
Official quality signs (organic,
PDO/PGIs) have small market
shares
• Severe constraints and high
added costs
Possible overlap between
differentiation schemes (e.g.
organic within a PDO)
Quality differentiation set to
increase
• Organic to record the highest
CAGR
Quality differentiation (if any) mainly through quality
assurance schemes
Raw meat retailing by quality differentiation scheme &
country, EU, 2014
30
Quality certification
Origin (local vs. national)
Breed
Animal category
Production method
• Feed
• Extensive vs. intensive (grass-/grain-fed, free range…)
• Organic
• Animal welfare requirements
• Halal and Kosher production & slaughter methods
Emerging trends
• Environmental protection – lack of common understanding on methods and indicators…
• Social values (as part of sustainability) – even less understood!
− Presently focusing on "small local producers"
• Definition difficulties means these are presently used in communication more than in certification
Little focus – up to now – on sustainability
31
Conclusions
Developing world meat trade
• Mainly in Py and Pk
Sharp rise in Asian imports
• But rise in share of total imports mainly in Bf and Sh
CN accounts for the bulk of this rising Asian importance
• Even more when taking Grey trade into account
Quality certification gaining importance in the developed markets
• At retail level mainly
• In many markets a large share of international trade focuses on the catering channels
Need for environmental/sustainability certification
• Definition?