Equity in VET: Participation, Achievement and Transitions Sheldon Rothman Principal Research Fellow.
Measuring VET participation by SES over time
description
Transcript of Measuring VET participation by SES over time
Measuring VET participation by SES over time
Tom Karmel and Patrick LimCEET conference, 1 November 2013
SEIFA
• Index of relative socio-economic disadvantage (IRSD)
• Index of relative socio-economic advantage and disadvantage (IRSAD)
• Index of education and occupation (IEO)• Index of economic resources (IER)
Population (POA)
Population (SLA)
Quintile 2006 2011 2006 2011
1 15.0 16.0 13.2 16.02 17.6 17.7 21.8 20.63 20.4 19.7 20.4 20.14 21.4 21.5 22.9 23.95 25.7 25.1 21.7 19.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Quintiles aint quintiles
15 to 19 Year
Olds20 to 24 Year
Olds
Quintile2006 POA
2006 SLA
2006 POA
2006 SLA
1 14.9 13.3 14.5 12.82 17.5 21.5 15.8 20.03 20.2 20.2 20.4 20.14 21.3 22.9 22.1 24.15 25.8 22.0 26.7 22.6
And even worse for particular age groups
2006 using 2006 Quintiles (SLA)Qualification 1 2 3 4 5Diploma and above 2.0 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.4Certificate IV 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.3Certificate III 7.9 9.5 9.5 8.7 6.5Certificate II 10.4 10.6 9.3 6.9 5.4Certificate I 2.9 2.6 2.6 1.8 1.1Non-AQF 4.8 4.5 3.2 2.9 2.8Module Only 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1Total 29.9 31.0 28.3 24.1 19.5
VET participation rates for 15-19 years, 2006
2011 using 2011 quintiles (SLA)Qualification 1 2 3 4 5Diploma and above 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.0Certificate IV 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5 1.9Certificate III 13.4 15.2 14.3 13.1 8.4Certificate II 14.0 14.6 11.6 8.3 5.7Certificate I 2.5 2.1 2.1 1.5 1.1Non-AQF 3.0 2.9 2.2 1.7 1.7Module Only 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2Total 37.3 39.5 35.2 29.8 20.9
VET participation rates for 15-19 years, 2011
2006 using 2006 QuintilesQualification 1 2 3 4 5Diploma and above 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.9Certificate IV 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.7Certificate III 7.2 7.9 7.0 6.8 5.5Certificate II 2.9 2.6 2.2 1.6 1.0Certificate I 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3Non-AQF 3.4 3.1 2.4 2.2 1.9Module Only 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2Total 19.2 19.1 16.7 15.7 13.5
VET participation rates for 20-24 years, 2006
2011 using 2011 quintilesQualification 1 2 3 4 5Diploma and above 3.0 3.2 2.9 3.3 3.0Certificate IV 3.3 3.8 3.3 3.3 2.9Certificate III 10.5 11.1 9.2 8.5 6.5Certificate II 3.8 3.0 2.1 1.7 1.1Certificate I 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2Non-AQF 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.3Module Only 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2Total 24.4 24.6 20.1 18.9 15.1
VET participation for 20-24 years, 2011
2011 Quintiles2006 Quintiles 1 2 3 4 5 Unknown Total1 81 15 3 1 0 0 1002 16 63 18 2 1 0 1003 2 19 64 14 0 0 1004 1 3 14 73 9 0 1005 0 0 1 11 88 0 100Unknown 13 0 0 4 17 67 100
2006 SEIFA against 2011 SEIFA (IRSD) by POA
2011 Quintiles2006 Quintiles 1 2 3 4 5 Unknown Total1 88 11 0 0 1 1 1002 15 74 11 0 0 0 1003 0 18 69 12 0 0 1004 0 0 16 75 7 2 1005 0 0 1 10 88 1 100Unknown 9 0 6 0 0 86 100
2006 SEIFA against 2011 SEIFA (IRSD), by SLA
Apparent and actual educational participation rates in a hypotheticalexample.
Quintile
2006 collection using 2006
2011 collection using 2006 quintiles
2011 collection using 2011 quintiles
1 40.5 44.9 42.12 45.3 48.5 44.43 32.4 36.6 36.24 24.2 25.2 27.45 19.6 19.4 21.3
Total 15 to 19 year olds 30.7 33.0 33.0
15-19 year old VET participation rates, 2006 and 2011, POA
Quintile
Actual change 2006
- 2011
Estimated change 2006 – 2011 using
2006 quintiles
Difference between
actual change and
estimated change
% of actual change 2006
- 20111 1.7 4.5 -2.8 -169.12 -0.9 3.2 -4.1 458.33 3.8 4.2 -0.4 -10.94 3.2 1.0 2.2 68.15 1.7 -0.2 1.9 110.6
Total 15 to 19 year olds 2.3 2.3 -0.1 -2.4
15-19 years VET participation rate, changes between 2006 and 2011, POA
Actual and apparent changes in VET participation for age by SES quintiles, 2006-2011, SEIFA (ISRD), POA (percentage points)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Actual changeApparent change
Quintile
Actual Change 2006 - 2011
Estimated change 2006 - 2011 using the 2006
Difference between actual and estimated change
% of actual change 2006 - 2011
1 7.4 9.0 1.6 21.42 8.5 10.0 1.5 17.93 6.9 8.4 1.6 22.94 5.6 6.5 0.8 14.45 1.4 4.0 2.6 182.5
Total 15 to 19 year olds 2.2 2.6 0.4 19.8
15-19 years VET participation rate, changes between 2006 and 2011, SLA
Apparent and actual VET participation rates for those aged 15-19 years, by SES quintile, 2011
1 2 3 4 50
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
ApparentActual
Apparent and actual VET participation rates for those aged 20-24 years, by SES quintile, 2011
1 2 3 4 50
5
10
15
20
25
30
ApparentActual
Apparent and actual VET participation rates for those aged 24-64 years, by SES quintile, 2011
1 2 3 4 50
5
10
15
20
25
30
ApparentActual
Actual and apparent changes in VETparticipation for age by SES quintiles,2006-2011, SEIFA (ISRD), SLA (percentage points)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Actual changeApparent change
More work to be done
• Same exercise for higher education• Figure out how to analyse accuracy of
estimates at qualification level
Summary
• Quintiles ain’t quintiles.• Important to calculate participation rates
rather than use 20% as a reference.• Equity issue in VET not obvious.• In respect of SEIFA, level of regional
classification matters.• SEIFA at SLA level seems ok, but need to test
methodology every census.