Measuring the Unmeasurable- Challenges from the Earthquake -

Shigeru KawasakiAdviser, Statistics Bureau, Japan

High Level Forum on Official Statistics Side Event of UN Statistical Commission

27 February 2012, New York

1 Introduction• What does it take to “measure”? - define the concepts, scales, units. - design the methods for data collection. - implement data collection & estimation.• Why look at the earthquake? - Under extreme conditions, limits and weaknesses in current statistics will emerge clearly. - Disasters may happen to any country.• Challenges are found in measuring - the change in population - the impact on energy & environment - the impact on economy & public finance

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2 The 2011 Earthquake in Eastern JapanA massive earthquake of M 9.0 struck eastern Japan at 14:46 on11 March 2011. Together with tsunami and the accident in the nuclear power plant, enormous damage was inflicted on the people and the area.

Dead: 15,852 persons Missing: 3,287 persons Relocated: 342,509 persons Destroyed: 120,204 dwellings Flooded area: 561 km2

cf. Total population 128 million Total area 377,950 km2

Intensity

+

+--

Epicenter

3000 200100 400 km

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3 Measuring the Change in Population• To provide rescue and relief effectively, data on the population

affected by the disaster were needed quickly.• Direct data collection in the disaster area was not possible. -----> To obtain indirect estimates on small-area basis, statistics were combined with geographic information from aerial photos. Customized statistical maps were provided to local authorities.

• For reconstruction planning, migration data of the people in the area was needed, in addition to socio-economic statistics.

• People moving out were hesitant to register new addresses. -----> Registration was encouraged by giving special treatment for disaster area (retain the old one while reporting the new one) The new national ID system planned for launch in 2015 will help improve population and migration statistics.2012/2/27 4

Base Map of Tsunami flooded areas (Sample)

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4 Assessing the Impact on Energy & Environment

• The accident at the nuclear plant caused electricity shortage. Quota was introduced as immediate measure, but the plan was very rough due to lack of data.

• Reliance on the nuclear energy is under review. Direction of future energy balance is likely to change drastically.

-----> More detailed data on energy is needed, e.g. - Hourly pattern of electricity consumption - Cost comparison of different energy sources - Environmental load of different energy sources - Information on the new energy sources (Data are mainly with private sector or policy makers -----> Necessary to include data providers and policy makers as players of official statistics) The “smart-grid” electricity network will be a valuable data

source for energy & environment and the economy.2012/2/27 6

5-1 Assessing the economic impact and risks

General government net financial liabilities (% of GDP)%

Source: OECE Economic Outlook No.90

• For reconstruction in 2011-2021, 23 trillion yen budget (approx. US$ 288 billion) will be allocated, excluding the cost related to the nuclear accident.

• The spending will increase the public debt to the world highest level in the ratio to GDP.

• Additional cost for the nuclear accident has to be assessed properly.• The risk of instability of the economy will become higher. Careful monitoring of economy & finance will be necessary.2012/2/27 7

As the global financial crisis, first by the subprime mortgage loans in the summer of 2007, followed by the sovereign debt in 2010, continues, the economy is becoming more unforeseeable than before just by observing the economy of just one country.

Real GDP Growth, Year-on-Year

Source: IMF WEO Database Sept 2011

Exchange Rates (Euro and US$ to JPY)

Source: OECD MEI Database

5-2 Assessing the economic impact and risks

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6 Conclusion• Challenges from the earthquake include: - To enhance the value of statistics by more use of GIS. - To assure timeliness and accuracy of civil registration - To improve data collection of energy & environment to promote more informed public debate and decision-making - To assess the full recovery cost including nuclear power - To monitor economy and finance to maintain stable

economic growth and minimize the risk of instability• More collaboration with policy makers and data providers (or

their inclusion into official statistics) will be necessary • The challenges are generally in line with the current direction

of international official statistics. International collaboration is essential.

• Sharing different experiences among countries is essential. 2012/2/27 9

The End

Thank you!

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