Measuring the Growth of Work As input size N increases, how well does our automated system work?...
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Transcript of Measuring the Growth of Work As input size N increases, how well does our automated system work?...
Measuring the Growth of WorkAs input size N increases, how well does our automated system work?
– Depends on what you want to do!Use algorithmic complexity theory:
– Use measure big o: O(N) which means worst case
Important for– Search engines– Databases– Social networks– Crime/terrorism
Sub-linear O(Log N)
Linear O(N)
Nearly linear O(N Log N)
Quadratic O(N2)
Exponential O(2N)
O(N!)
O(NN)
Performance classesPolynomial
Death toscaling
How Much InformationReaches Americans Consumers?
Roger Bohn - [email protected]
HMI? Project -- Global Information Industry Center (GIIC)
UC San Diego
November 3, 2009
HMI? 2009 Scope
Consumers - Information used by Americans 1960 to 2008
Enterprise - Information processed by servers worldwide in 2008
Special studies, such as
Scientific data at MIT - giic.ucsd.edu
Health-care data
Enterprise storage growth
HMI? Web site papers
Defining “information”
Dozens of definitions (more than one per person!)
Information to consumers ≃ Data that is directly for people
Information supplied versus consumed
Whether they pay attention or not (multiple streams count fully)
Multiple metrics for measuring an information object
Bytes: emphasizes moving visual imagery InfoC
Words: ignores pictures InfoW
How many bytes in a 20 minute TV show?
Raw bytes = Screen size in pixels x bytes per pixel x frames per sec.
1920 x 1080 x 3 x 30 = 186 Megabytes per second = 1.5 Gbps
TV compressed down to 1 to 2% e.g. 12 Mbps
Infocompressed counts “bytes through the cable”
Examples: SDTV ~ 4 Mbps = 2 GB per hour
Book = 12 bytes per word x 4 words per second = 400 bps
Methodology
How do we consume information?
Source: HMI? 2009
InfocInfow
Information consumed by “average American” per day
InfoC in GB/day InfoW in words/day
TV (incl. DVR, Internet, mobile) 12.0 44,342
Radio 0.1 8,315
Phone 0.01 5,269
Print 0.01 8,659
Computer 0.08 27,122
Computer games 18.5 2,459
Movies 3.3 198
Recorded music 0.08 1,112
Total 34.0 97,476
Information consumed by “average American” per day
InfoC in GB/day
TV (incl. DVR, Internet, mobile) 12.0
Radio 0.1
Phone 0.01
Print 0.01
Computer 0.08
Computer games 18.5
Movies 3.3
Recorded music 0.08
Total 34.0
Computer games ubiquitous
35 M consoles sold in 2008; 10M Nintendo DS + 10 M Wiil
70% of online adults play computer games
7 of top 10 iPhone apps are games (by revenue)!
“Casual gaming” has removed gender bias
QuickTime™ and aH.264 decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Sub-categories: computer games
# of Users (millions)
Average use/month Total InfoH % of Total InfoH % of Total InfoC
PC (high performance) 21 86.9 hours 1,4051,405 1.71% 38.28%
PC (standard) 124 18.1 194 2.12% 5.29%
Consoles 89 30.3 368 2.55% 10.02%
Handheld Devices 129 12.6 24 1.54% 0.64%
Total 1991 7.92% 54.23%
Full calculations go deeper: types of users, types of games, compression factors, others
How push so many bytes?
Detail, fluid animation, lighting, good AI.This is from Xbox version - PC graphics better
Slices: How is info delivered?Airwaves includes TV broadcast, radio, mobile; Wires includes Cable TV, Internet; Physical = Print + Local computer
Other use Slices
“Interactive” information = telephone, computer games
now 55% of InfoC, 36% of InfoW
Traditional media = Cable TV, broadcast TV, radio, movies, print
Now now 36% of InfoC, 56% of InfoW
Define groupings of media types and information measures
What about Information Growth?
As costs fall, use increases.
Hypothesis:
~ 35% per year growth in InfoC
Inco
rrect
!
slow Growth
1960 to 1980 1980 to 2008
INFOHours 3.9% 2.6%
INFOWords 3.7% 3.0%
INFOC (bytes) 2.9% 5.4%5.4%
US Population 1.1% 1.0%
GDP $/capita 3.6% 2.9%
Source: HMI? 2009
Decomposing growth 1960-1980
InfoC = (# Users) x (Average InfoH per user) x (Average bpsC)x 3600/8
∆InfoC = ∆Population + ∆(InfoH per capita) + ∆bpsC
»Where ∆Y = (dY/dtime)/ Y = % rate of change of Y
5.4% = 1.0% + 1.6% + 2.8%
= Population growth + Hours/person growth + InfoC intensity growth
Why did average bits per second only grow at 2.8% per year?
Why such slow growth?
TV penetration ~97% in 1980
Hours per day: 7.4 in 1980 11.7 in 2008
Intensity: 2.9 Mbps in 1980
6.5 Mbps in 2008
TV in 1980: 4 Mbps SDTV
TV in 2008: 4 Mbps SDTV
12 Mbps HDTV
< 1 Mbps Internet
what’s happened to print media?
Print media = Magazines + books + newspapers
Print = fastest way to deliver words
Pool: 240 words per minute
24% of Iwords in 1960;
9% in 2008
Web browsing another 28%
Tele
vision
19601980
2008
Prin
t
Computer e.g. Web browse
Telephone has grown in Sharew
Source: HMI? 2009
InfoW distribution across media
Roll your own projections
What happens if cable TV increases bandwidth per channel? TV usage migrates to Hulu?
What if DVR users store 1% of what they watch, at high fidelity, for 2 weeks?
Quality versus quantity trends
Rise of the Internet
Variable bit rates between and within categories
TV (cable, DVD, etc.) 3,000 (DVR) to 11,000 (DVD) to
Print .018 (color magazine) to .001 (straight text)
Radio .019 to .096
Phone .064 (landline) to .010 (cellular)
Computer non-game 100 (average Internet broadband)
Computer game 23,000 (console) to 2000
Two Categories of Algorithms
2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024Size of Input (N)
1035
1030
1025
1020
1015
trillionbillionmillion100010010
N
N5
2NNN
Unreasonable
Don’t Care!
Reasonable
Ru
nti
me
sec
Lifetime of the universe 1010 years = 1017 sec