Measuring the benefit effect for customers with Bayesian predictive modeling
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Transcript of Measuring the benefit effect for customers with Bayesian predictive modeling
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Measuring benefit effect for customers
with bayesian prediction modeling
Kwon, JeongMin ([email protected])
Strata + Hadoop World 2015, London
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Offering
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Offering• Popular way to promote products
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Offering Process
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Step 1: Customer Data Management
Monitor customers’ actionsKeeping track of customer data and informationDefining goals
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Step 2: Targeting
Customer segmentation and selection with goals at step 1Based on demographic information and log collectionsStatistical methods and data mining algorithms
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Step 3: Offering Benefit
(Campaign)
• Delivering proper benefits to targeted customer groups
• Methods: Promotion, Event, Advertisement and others
• Measurement and prediction of campaign effects
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How to measure and predict
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How to compare offering effects
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Multivariate Testing• Technique for testing a
hypothesis with multiple variables
• Issues for offering
• Lack of long-term prediction
• data, benefit limitations
(Image from https://www.ownedit.com/features)
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Bayesian Interpretation• Diachronic Interpretation
• Probability of the hypotheses changes over time
• Prior and posterior based on background information
• Good for simulation, decision and prediction
(Image from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem)
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CausalImpact
• Based on the paper [Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models], Google, 2014
• CausalImpact Package in R
• https://github.com/google/CausalImpact
(Image from the paper)
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CompareImpacts
• Integration of bayesian time series prediction model with multivariate tests
• For simple comparison of causal effects
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Use Cases• Same offerings in various groups
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Use Cases
• Various offerings in a group
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Basic Model• CausalImpact results
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• Same offerings in three groups
Use Case Results
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• Offerings in a group with time differences
Use Case Results
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Office Hour: 15:25~16:05, Table AE-mail : [email protected]
New Tool for Offering Comparison:Multivariate Test +
Bayesian Time-Series Analysis