Measuring Technical Progress: Evaluating Non-existent Scientific Instruments
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Transcript of Measuring Technical Progress: Evaluating Non-existent Scientific Instruments
Measuring Technical Progress: Evaluating Non-existent Scientific
Instruments
Center for Innovation, University of Maryland
Jerald Hage, Director
Jonathon Mote, Assistant Research Scientist
Aleia Clark, Assistant Researcher
The Hyperspectral Environmental Suite
Background
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) is planning to launch a new weather satellite in 2016 The Hyperspectral Environmental Suite of
instruments (HES) has been proposed as part of this project…it does not yet exist
Continual rejection from Congress Center for Innovation was asked to
provide advice on how to justify the instrument
The case of the Hyperspectral Sounder (HES)
What is a hyperspectral sounder? GOES-R: Geostationary operational
environmental satellite This is what we use to collect atmospheric
data that is used for weather prediction The HES is a new suite of instruments
designed to improve atmospheric data collection
Hyperspectral data v. multispectral data
Advanced Sounder(3074 channels)
GOES (18 channels)
•HES can image the entire hemisphere in one-sixth the time it takes for the current system.
•HES increases the number spectral bands to over 3,000
What is Hyperspectral Sounding?
Making a case for non-existent instruments
Congress demands data for the justification of new instruments such as the HES $700 million for HES GOES project already over $1 billion
How do you evaluate scientific instruments before they exist?
The need for a new approach
Not one, but two different sets of stakeholders with different interests
1. Executives at NOAA and the National Weather Service (NWS)
– Internal divisions concerning merits of HES
2. Congress and OMB– Economic cost-benefit analysis indicate little
economic benefit
Four recommendations
1. Build a justification for different goals for the HES
2. Provide justification for scientific community
3. Different justification for congress, avoiding economic arguments
4. Collect analogue data to support arguments
Reframing the Justification
Place HES in evolutionary context of improving weather prediction Present HES as next self-evident step in
progress of weather prediction Present HES as a step towards
understanding global warming Co-opt those on both sides of the global
warming debate by providing necessary data on carbon cycles
Reframing the Justification: The National Weather Service
NWS v. HES NWS believes they are doing a good job HES represents a threat
Present HES as fulfilling different needs Support v. replacement Avoids direct confrontation with NWS
Near/now-casting of extreme weather events Short term, rapid climate changes
Nowcasting: HES as a new prediction tool
o February 2009 tornado outbreak in Oklahoma
oStrong supercells emerged at an unexpected time of the year
The nowcasting system predicted this 6 hours sooner than NWS forecasts.
Justification for NOAA
Connect HES to stated goals of strategic plan Goal of increasing tornado warning
times is part of NOAA’s plan Emphasize HES capabilities to meet
stated goal Finer spatial resolution Increased tornado warning time
Justification for Congress and OMB
Cost-benefit analyses lack benefits Costs of weather damage cannot be mitigated
by forecasting but by new building codes Focus on saving lives and avoiding injuries Secondary economic argument
costly failure to predict winter storms Example: Washington, DC. Closed for three
days in Winter of 2000 due to unpredicted storm
Collecting Evidence
Where do you get the evidence? Use available hyperspectral data to
supplement arguments AIRS: high-spectral resolution infrared
instrument funded by NASA Evidence from European hyperspectral
efforts German EnMap satellite Also demonstrates how US has fallen
behind
Thank you
For additional information or questions… Jerry Hage. Director, Center for Innovation
[email protected] Jonathon Mote. Senior Researcher
[email protected] Aleia Clark. Research Assistant