Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

87
1 Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability Gary Cokins, CPIM Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC Cary, North Carolina USA www.garycokins.com 919 720 2718 [email protected] Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC My-CPE https://my-cpe.com/

Transcript of Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

Page 1: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

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Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

Gary Cokins, CPIMAnalytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Cary, North Carolina USA

www.garycokins.com

919 720 2718

[email protected]

Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

My-CPE

https://my-cpe.com/

Page 2: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

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About Gary CokinsFounder, Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

B.S. Industrial Engineering & Operations Research;

Cornell University, 1971

M.B.A. Finance & Accounting; Northwestern University,

Kellogg Graduate School of Management, 1974

Previous Associations:

- FMC Corporation

- Consultant with: Deloitte,

KPMG,

Electronic Data Systems [EDS, now HP]

- SAS (16 years)Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

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Managers who have previously struggled at

promoting the measurement and reporting product,

channel and customer profitability into their

decision support systems.

Who will benefit from this presentation?

Managers who intend to “champion” profitability

analysis techniques and need a compelling call to

action.

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Drowning in data but starving for information.

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Key questions

What? So what? Then what?

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AGENDA

▪ Eras and Issues with managerial accounting

▪ Basics on activity-based costing (ABC)

▪ Implementing with ABC rapid prototyping

▪ Calculating channel and customer profitability

▪ Applying analytics

▪ Historical versus predictive costing

▪ Barriers slowing the adoption rate

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Six Eras of Managerial Accounting

20,000 BC 1492 1910 1930 1980 2019

Stone

Age

Medieval

Industrial

Regulatory

Compliance

Channel &

Customer

Predictive

Accounting &

Analytics

Era

Of

Costing

Maturity

A shift of

emphasis from

a historical to a

predictive view

of strategy and

operations

Precious

metal and

paper money

piles,

ultimately

leading to

double-entry

bookkeeping

(Luca Pacioli,

1494).

Alexander

Hamilton

Church;

standard cost

accounting (to

reflect

Frederick

Winslow

Taylor’s

manufacturing

scientific

methods, 1910)

The USA’s

Great

Depression

resulted in

regulatory

reforms to

protect

investors

(1930s).

“Causal” cost

tracing of

increasingly

diverse types

of products,

services,

channels and

customers

Rocks and

stone piles.

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2020

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Standard Costing, Project Accounting, Job Order Costing,

Economic Value Added TM, Balanced Scorecard, Activity Based

Costing, Intellectual Capital, Performance Pyramid, Business

Excellence Model, Customer Profitability, Strategic

Management Accounting, Strategic Cost Management, Supply

Chain Costing, Cash Flow Return on Investment, Business

Models, Target Costing, Kaizen Costing, Lean Accounting, Life

Cycle Costing, Value Added Analysis, Process Costing, Time-

based Activity Based Costing, Value engineering, Stock

Options, Micro Profit Centres, Quality Costing, Non-value

Added Cost, Human capital, Resource Consumption

Accounting, Structural Capital, Relationship Capital, Brand

Value, Total Cost of Ownership, Throughput Accounting, Triple

Bottom Line, Beyond Budgeting, Risk-adjusted Return on

Capital at Risk ……

Here is Part of the Problem.Which managerial accounting system should we

use?

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Standard Costing, Project Accounting, Job Order Costing, Economic

Value Added TM, Balanced Scorecard, Activity Based Costing,

Intellectual Capital, Performance Pyramid, Business Excellence Model,

Customer Profitability, Strategic Management Accounting, Strategic

Cost Management, Supply Chain Costing, Cash Flow Return on

Investment, Business Models, Target Costing, Kaizen Costing, Lean

Accounting, Life Cycle Costing, Value Added Analysis, Process

Costing, Time-based Activity Based Costing, Value engineering, Stock

Options, Micro Profit Centres, Quality Costing, Non-value Added Cost,

Human capital, Resource Consumption Accounting, Structural Capital,

Relationship Capital, Brand Value, Total Cost of Ownership,

Throughput Accounting, Triple Bottom Line, Beyond Budgeting, Risk-

adjusted Return on Capital at Risk ……

Here is Part of the Problem.Which managerial accounting system should

we use?

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Direct and Absorption Costing

Ideally, all costs should be directly charged, but as variety, complexity, and

technology increases, more costs are indirect and shared.

Activities

Resources

Final

Cost

Objects

Project

accounting ABC/M ALLOCATIONS

Labor

ReportingEstimates

OUTPUTS, PROCESSES, PRODUCTS, SERVICE LINES, MARKETS, CHANNELS, ORDERS, CUSTOMERS

1st Preference

2nd Preference

3rd Preference

Last Resort

Cost-Driver Table

Work

Order

Standard

Routing,

Bill of

material

Standard

costing

Activity

Driver

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11Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Gary Cokins’ part time role as the IMA Executive in Residence

IMA Strategic

Finance magazine;

December 2013,

January 2014;

Trend #1

“Measuring and

Managing Customer

Profitability”; IMA

Strategic Finance;

February 2015.

http://www.imanet.org/

docs/default-

source/sf/2015_02/02

_2015_cokins.pdf?sfvr

sn=2

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AGENDA

▪ Eras and Issues with managerial accounting

▪ Basics on activity-based costing (ABC)

▪ Implementing with ABC rapid prototyping

▪ Calculating channel and customer profitability

▪ Applying analytics

▪ Historical versus predictive costing

▪ Barriers slowing the adoption rate

Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

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A simple explanation of ABC …that you can explain to yourspouse (or boss) tonight.

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Cost

Components

Stages in the Evolution of Businesses

IntegratedOld-fashioned Hierarchical

Changes in Cost Structure

100%

Overhead(indirect expenses)

Direct (recurring) Labor

Material

1950 2000

Direct

0%

Broadly averaged cost allocation was acceptable.

Cost errors are large and misleading.

The Need for Tracing, not Allocating, Costs

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Insurance Claims Processing Department

The General Ledger View is Structurally Deficient for Decision Analysis.

Salaries

Equipment

Travel expense

Supplies

Use andoccupancy

Total

$621,400

161,200

58,000

43,900

30,000

$914,500

$600,000

150,000

60,000

40,000

30,000

$880,000

$(21,400)

(11,200)

2,000

(3,900)

––

$(34,500)

PlanActualFavorable/

(unfavorable)

Chart-of-Accounts View

When managers get this kind of report, they are

either happy or sad, but they are rarely any smarter!

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#of

Activity-Based View

To: ABC Data Base

Key/scan claims

Analyze claims

Suspend claims

Receive provider inquiries

Resolve member problems

Process batches

Determine eligibility

Make copies

Write correspondence

Attend training

Total

$ 31,500

121,000

32,500

101,500

83,400

45,000

119,000

145,500

77,100

158,000

$914,500

Claims Processing Dept

Salaries

Equipment

Travel expense

Supplies

Use andoccupancy

Total

$621,400

161,200

58,000

43,900

30,000

$914,500

$600,000

150,000

60,000

40,000

30,000

$880,000

$(21,400)

(11,200)

2,000

(3,900)

––

$(34,500)

PlanActualFavorable/

(unfavorable)

Claims Processing Department

Chart-of-Accounts View

From: General LedgerActivity

cost

drivers

#of#of#of#of#of#of#of#of

#of

$914,500

Each Activity Has Its Own Cost Driver

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Multiple-Stage Cost Flowing

ExpandedABC

Resources

Resources

Activities

Objects

Objects

Activities

SimpleABC

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ABC/M Cost Assignment Network

Salary, FringeBenefits

DirectMaterial

Phone,Travel

SuppliesDepreciation

Rent, Interest,

Tax

Customers

Business

Sustaining

Products,

Services

Resources(general ledger view)

Work Activities(verb-noun)

FinalCost

ObjectsSuppliers

(1)

Dem

and

s O

n W

ork C

ost

s (2

)

“C

ost

s M

easu

re t

he

Eff

ects

Support

Activities

Equipment

Activities

PeopleActivities

“cost-to-serve”paths

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ABC/M Cost Assignment Network

Salary, FringeBenefits

DirectMaterial

Phone,Travel

SuppliesDepreciation

Rent, Interest,

Tax

Customers

Business

Sustaining

Products,

Services

Resources(general ledger view)

Work Activities(verb-noun)

FinalCost

ObjectsSuppliers

(1)

Dem

and

s O

n W

ork C

ost

s (2

)

“C

ost

s M

easu

re t

he

Eff

ects

Support

Activities

Equipment

Activities

PeopleActivities

“cost-to-serve”paths

Dire

ct c

osts

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Salary, Fringe

Benefits

Direct

Material

Phone,

Travel

Supplies

DepreciationRent,

Interest, Tax

Business

Sustaining

Products

Resources

Activities

Final Cost Objects

(1)

Dem

and

s O

n W

ork C

ost

s (2

)

“Co

sts

Mea

sure

th

e E

ffec

ts”

Support

Activities

Equipment

Activities

Suppliers

Balance SheetExpenditures

Fixed Assets Inventory Receivables

Cost of Capital

Imputed

cost of

capital

ABC/M Cost Assignment Network (imputed CoC)

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ABC

Traditional Costing

Under-Costing(Hidden Loss)

Over-Costing(Hidden Profit)

0%

1,000%+

- 50–200%

0%

% error

distortion

per unit

Rank-ordered Products/Services

• Simple Products and Services

• made through generic processes

• High Volume of Production

• Complex Products and Services

• made through specific processes

• Low Volume of Production

Standard Costing Over- and Under-Costs Products

Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Source: Alireza Sarraf; permission to use granted

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$ 30 sales

- 28 expenses

= $ 2 profit

$ 2 profit

Unrealized profit revealed by ABC

Net Revenues

MinusABC costs =

profit

Organizational shock from the truth

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Sales $ 31.0

- Expenses 31.5

= prof/(loss) $ (0.5)

loss = $ (0.5)

More important than a better costing method are its results.

Net Revenues

MinusABC costs =

profit

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Take Actions to Raise the “whale curve”

Source: Alireza Sarraf; permission to use granted

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ActivityCosts

each activity’s driver quantity

Activity driver per unit-level cost consumption rate

x

(e.g., # of orders)

Price/Fee(Revenue)

ABC provides insight for the product’s or service’s cost drivers and driver quantities.

WorkActivities

Activity Costs “pile up” into outputs.

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Most CFOs take the left-side path!

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Polling Question #1

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AGENDA

▪ Eras and Issues with managerial accounting

▪ Basics on activity-based costing (ABC)

▪ Implementing with ABC rapid prototyping

▪ Calculating channel and customer profitability

▪ Applying analytics

▪ Historical versus predictive costing

▪ Barriers slowing the adoption rate

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Rapid Prototyping withIterative Remodeling (crawl, walk, run, fly)

Each iteration enhances the use of a ABC system.

ABC Models

3

ABC System

(repeatable, reliable, relevant)

#0

#1

#2

#3

210

Copyright 2018 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Make your mistakes early and often, not later

when the system is too hard to change.

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Balancing Levels of Accuracy with Effort

Accuracyof

Final CostObjects

100%

0%

World Class

ABC System Design

Little

Level of Data Collection Effort

GreatModest

A

B

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Is the higher climb worth the better view?

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Final Cost Object ProfilingA key to initial ABC/M Rapid Prototyping is to identify major sources of

diversity.

Influencers of

Diversity of Activity

Cost Consumption

Geography

Order Habits

Order Frequency

Level of Demand

Technical Sophistication

Etc.

Etc.

Customer Profile Candidates

Dominant

Influences

(Check 2 or 3)

Polar Extremes

Near

Standard

Infrequent

Light

Advanced

(E-commerce)

vs. Far

vs.

vs.

vs.

vs.

vs.

vs.

Specials

Frequent

Invasive

Archaic

(Manual)

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Benefits from ABC/M Rapid Prototyping

- Accelerated learning

- Solving the thorny “leveling” problem

- Preventing “over-engineering” ABM model size

- Peer group: Pre-determining uses for the information

- Replacing misconceptions with reality.

- Getting ROI from earlier insights and decisions.

Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

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AGENDA

▪ Eras and Issues with managerial accounting

▪ Basics on activity-based costing (ABC)

▪ Implementing with ABC rapid prototyping

▪ Calculating channel and customer profitability

▪ Applying analytics

▪ Historical versus predictive costing

▪ Barriers slowing the adoption rate

Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

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What has Caused Interest in ABPM?

The shift from being product-centric to customer centric.

The emphasis will be more on economics – measuring

customer profitability and customer lifetime value (for

B2C).

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Value of Company = f(Value from Customers)

The only value a company will ever create is the valuethat comes from its customers – the current ones and the

new ones acquired in the future.

To remain competitive, one must determine how to keep customers longer, grow them into bigger customers, make

them more profitable, serve them more efficiently, and acquire relatively more profitable customers.

Source: Don Peppers and Martha Rogers, Peppers & Rogers Group (edited)

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Products and standard service-lines are not the only

thing for which accountants should compute costs.

What about costs that have nothing to do with making

products and delivering standard service-lines?

The problem with traditional accounting’s product gross

profit margin reporting is you don’t see the bottom half of

the picture.

So what about the Other Below-the-line “Calculated” Costs?

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INCOME STATEMENT

Sales $ 100

- Product direct costs -20

- Overhead cost -10

----------------------------------------------

= Gross profit margin $ 70

What about Costs Below Product Costs ?

- selling costs -20

- distribution costs -10

- marketing costs -20

- administrative costs -10

----------------------------------------------

= Total Profit $ 10

The accountants

report these by

each product (but

they are wrong

without ABC).

?We have no visibility

of these costs by

customer (except in

total) !

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Indirect expenses

Distribution, Sales & Marketing

Sales, general, and administration (S,G&A)

Customer+

Direct material,

Direct labor &

Equipment

Costs from Sales & Marketing are not Products

Channel+

Product

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# 1- Customer Retention – It is relatively much more

expensive to acquire a new customer than to retain

an existing one.

# 2 – Sources of Competitive Advantage – As products

and standard service-lines become commodity-like,

then the shift is towards service-differentiation.

Why Do Customer-related Costs Matter?The Perfect Storm

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# 4 - Power Shift – The Internet is shifting power …

irreversibly … from sellers to buyers.

# 3 - CRM’s “One-to-One” Marketing – Pepper &

Rodgers have hailed technology as the enabler to (1)

identify customer segments, and (2) tailor marketing

offers.

Why Do Customer-related Costs Matter?The Perfect Storm

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Polling Question #2

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42Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

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WORK

ACTIVITIES

(examples)

SUPPLIER

SUSTAINING

UNIT &

BATCH

LEVEL

BRAND

SUSTAINING

PRODUCT/SERVICE

LINE SUSTAINING

UNIT &

BATCH

LEVEL

CUSTOMER

SUSTAINING

UNIT &

BATCH

LEVEL

SENIOR

MGT

UNUSED

CAPACITYR&D

OSHADOT

RESOURCES

FINAL

COST OBJECTS

# Advertisements

SUPPLIERS

SUPPLIER

-

RELATED

PRODUCTS/SKUs

SALARY &

FRINGE BENEFITS

DIRECT

MATERIAL

CAPITAL

(equipment-related)

NON-WAGE RELATED

(e.g., operating supplies)

# Machine

hours

# Material

moves

# Set-ups

# Shows

#

Advertisements

RELATIONSHIP

MANAGEMENT

PURCHASES,

RECEIPTS

•BRAND/PRODUCT-

RELATEDWORK,

•BRAND/PRODUCT-

RELATED ADVERTISING

& MERCHANDISING,

•FACILITIES COST

MACHINES

MAKE PRODUCT,

MOVE PRODUCT,

SET-UPS

TRADE SHOWS,

IMAGE ADVERTISING

SALES CALLS,

ORDER HANDLING,

FREIGHT

# POs

#

Receipts

# Sales

calls

# orders

# shipments

CUSTOMERS

Gvt

RegulatorsARBITRARY

(for full

absorption)

ARBITRARY

(for full

absorption)

BUSINESS

SUSTAINING

RELATED

PRODUCT & SERVICE LINE-

RELATEDCUSTOMER-

RELATED

IRS

ABC/M Profit Contribution Margin Layering

Etc.

#

Pounds

#

Gallons

# Meters

Facility costs

Pro

duct

-spec

ific

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CUSTOMER: XYZ CORPORATION (CUSTOMER #1270)

Sales $$$ Margin $ Margin

(Sales - Costs) % of Sales

Product-Related

Supplier-Related costs (TCO) $ xxx $ xxx 98%

Direct Material xxx xxx 50%

Brand Sustaining xxx xxx 48%

Product Sustaining xxx xxx 46%

Unit, Batch* xxx xxx 30%

Distribution-Related

Outbound Freight Type* xxx xxx 28%

Order Type* xxx xxx 26%

Channel Type* xxx xxx 24%

Customer-Related

Customer-Sustaining xxx xxx 22%

Unit-Batch* xxx xxx 10%

Business Sustaining xxx xxx 8%

Operating Profit xxx 8%

* Activity Cost Driver Assignments use measurable quantity volume of Activity Output

(Other ActvityAssignments traced based on informed (subjective) %s)

Product-

related

costs

Channel &

Customer-

related

costs

ABC Customer Profit & Loss Statement

Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

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High

Low

Low High

Cost-to-Serve

Product MixGross Profit

Margin

Very

Profitable

Very

unprofitable

Types of Customers

Migrating Customers to Higher Profitability

Copyright 2017 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Page 46: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

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High

Low

Low High

Cost-to-Serve

Product MixGross Profit

Margin

Very

Profitable

Very

unprofitable

Types of Customers

KPI Target

KPI Linkage of Customer Profits to the Scorecard

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Customer Sales Volume Versus Profits

Sales Volume (logarithmic scale)

Profitability

$ 0

$ (unprofitable)

$ profitable

Customers tend to cluster. Medium sales volume customers can

be much more profitable than large sales volume customers!

These losers

drag down

profits

$ small $ large

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A “whale curve” of Customer Profitability

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Polling Question #3

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GARY COKINS

Principal, Global

Business Advisory

Services, SAS

THOMAS P.

KLAMMER

Professor of

Accounting

(retired)

University of North

Texas

TERRANCE L.

POHLEN

Associate

Professor of

Logistics

University of North

Texas

http://cscmp.org/st

ore/handbook-

supply-chain-

costing

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The spending budget for sales and marketing is critical …

but it should be treated as a preciously scarce resource to

be aimed at generating the highest long-term profits.

This means answering questions like:

Which type of customer is attractive to newly acquire,

retain, grow, or win back? And which types are not?

How much should we optimally spend attracting, retaining,

growing, or recovering each customer micro-segment?

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The CFO must now help Sales and

Marketing … to better target customers.

A Shift in the CFO’s Emphasis

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… over-spending uneccessarily on loyal

customers for what is needed to retain them.

… under-spending on marginally loyal

customers and risk their defection to a

competitor.

Therefore, what is the optimum spending

level for differentiated services to different

micro-segments of customers?

Optimizing Customer Value ---“Smart” Sales Growth

You can destroy shareholder wealth

creation by …

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Other factor variables to evaluate sales prospects and

existing customers should include:

- retention (loyalty)

- attrition (tenure)

- churn propensity

- RFM ( recency, frequency,

and monetary spend)

- their lifecycle stage

- their referrals potential

- their familial relationships

- their “social networks”

- their tastes and preferences

- socio-demographic

- psychological

- others ??

A financial view is not the only consideration.

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Actions to Make Customers More Profitable

- Manage each customer’s costs-to-serve to a lower level.

- Improve and streamline customer facing processes, including adding self-

service models where possible

- Establish a surcharge for or re-price expensive cost-to-serve activities.

- Reduce services; focus first on labor intensive ones that add the least value

yet cost the most.

- Introduce new products and service lines.

- Abandon old products or service-lines.

- Raise prices.

- Improve and streamline internal business processes.

- Offer the customer profit-positive service level options with varying prices.

- Increase investments on activities that a customer shows a preference for.

- Up-sell or cross-sell the customer’s purchase mix toward richer, higher-

margin products and service lines.

- Discount prices to gain more business with low cost-to-serve customers.

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Improve the value mix of customers

Source: Managing Customer Relationships by Martha Rogers

LMC MVC’s

Growth by increasing

value of customers

Num

be

r o

f cu

sto

me

rs

Customer actual value

2

1

3

Growth by increasing

number of customers

Notes

1. Only focusing on

the number of

customers

acquired results in

a degraded mix as

low-value

customers by

definition are

easier to acquire

2. A customer centric

strategy will not

acquire any

customer; only

higher-value ones

Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Page 56: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

56

Who is more important to pursue with the scarce

resources of our marketing spend budget?

Our most profitable customers?

Or our most valuable customers?

What is the difference?

The “customer lifetime value” measure is

intended to answer this question.

Measuring Future Potential Profits

Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Page 57: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

57

Dentist A

Sales = $750,000

profits = $100,000

Age 61

Dentist B

Sales = $375,000

profits = $40,000

Age 25

Which is more profitable?

Which is more valuable?

Imagine you are pharmaceutical supplier.Which Customer is more Important?

Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Page 58: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

58

Historical (trends, insights, inferences)

Time = 0(now)

Predictive(uncertainty, risk mgmt.)

Past(reactive)

Future(proactive)

Customer Value Management – Financial Definitions

Customer Profitability

The difference between the

revenues earned from, and the

total costs associated with, the

customer relationship during a

specified period.

Customer Lifetime Value (CLV)

The net present value of the

future cash flows (both

inwards and outwards)

attributed to the customer

relationship during the

predicted lifetime of that

relationship

Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Page 59: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

59

Polling Question #4

Page 60: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

60

AGENDA

▪ Eras and Issues with managerial accounting

▪ Basics on activity-based costing (ABC)

▪ Implementing with ABC rapid prototyping

▪ Calculating channel and customer profitability

▪ Applying analytics

▪ Historical versus predictive costing

▪ Barriers slowing the adoption rate

Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Page 61: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

61

Why are some customers more profitable than others?

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Page 62: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

62

Recursive Partitioning / Decision Trees

Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Example:

The single, largest factor for

explaining the profit

variation is Average Order

Size.

Customers small order

quantities are less profitable

Page 63: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

63

AGENDA

▪ Eras and Issues with managerial accounting

▪ Basics on activity-based costing (ABC)

▪ Implementing with ABC rapid prototyping

▪ Calculating channel and customer profitability

▪ Applying analytics

▪ Historical versus predictive costing

▪ Barriers slowing the adoption rate

Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Page 64: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

64

The Three Key Questions

What? So what? Then what?

Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

This involves price quoting.

Page 65: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

65

ACCOUNTING

Financial

Accounting

Cost Measurement

Managerial

Accounting

Cost AccountingFinancial Reporting

regulatory compliance

Cost Reporting &

Analysis(feedback on performance)

Decision Support/

Cost Planning•[e.g., GAAP, IFRS]

•Costs of goods sold

•Inventory valuation

• Spending vs. budget variance

analysis

• Profitability reporting

• Process analysis (e.g., lean,

benchmarking, COQ)

• Performance measures

• Learning; corrective actions

• Fully absorbed & incremental pricing

• Driver-based budgeting & rolling

financial forecasts

• What-if analysis

• Product, channel & customer

rationalization

• Outsourcing & make vs. buy analysis

History FutureLow value-add Modest value-add High value-add

Source data capture

(transactions /

bookkeeping)

Non-financial data

capture

The Domain of Costing

Tax

Accounting

Source: “A Costing Levels Continuum Maturity Model” by Gary Cokins

published by the International Federation of Accountants, 2010Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Source: PABC IGPG “Evaluating and Improving Costing in Organizations” published by the International Federation of Accountants, 2009

Cokins’ IFAC.org

Taxonomy of

Accounting

GAAP,

rules

Page 66: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

66

▪ Activity-Based Costing

- Historical & Descriptive

- Starts with known:

spending

driver measures

output quantities

- Calculates “costs”

▪ Activity-Based Planning

- Predictive

- Requires capacity analysis

- Starts with estimated outputs

- Applies ABC/M rates

- Solves for Resource “expenses”

NowPast Future

ABC/M

ABP

Recurring Expenses // Future Volume & Mix

Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Page 67: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

67

ABC/M ABP

Known

?

?

resources

work

activities

cost

objects

Provides unit-level consumption

rates

NowPast Future

ABC/M

ABP

Predictive Accounting

Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Page 68: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

68

ABC/M ABP

? calculated

?

Estimated

resources

work

activities

cost

objects

NowPast Future

ABC/M

ABP

Predictive Accounting

Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Page 69: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

69

Accounting Treatments and Behavior of Capacity (expenses)

NowPast Future

Descriptive

Predictive

unused

used

sunk

fixed(unavoidable)

variable(adjustable

capacity;

avoidable)

Traceable to

products,

channels,

customers,

sustaining

unused

Predictive Accounting

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Page 70: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

70

Variable

Step-fixed

Fixed

Sunk

Expenses

Copyright 2018 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

One-time order;

demanded priceLarge capital

expenditure

X

X

X

operationalstrategic

X

X X

Resource classifying dependencies

---- type of decision →

Page 71: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

71

Gary Cokins’ ABC Book

https://www.wiley.com/en-

us/Activity+Based+Cost+Ma

nagement%3A+An+Executiv

e%27s+Guide-p-

9780471217275

Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Page 72: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

72

Evaluating the Costing

Journey:

A Costing Levels Continuum

Maturity Model

By Gary Cokins

Most organizations are

typically at lower levels of

maturity in adopting

progressive managerial

accounting practices,

methods and systems.

International Federation of Accountants Report

Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

http://www.garycokins.com/images/pd

fs/20131105-

IFAC_Evaluating_the_Costing_Journ

ey_by_Gary_Cokins.pdf

Page 73: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

73

1D

Lev

el #

2D 3D4D

5D

6D

7D

8D

Blind

ProcessVisibility

Output Visibility

Improved Output

Information/ Approximate

Accuracy

Improved Treatmentof Indirect

Costs

CustomerDemandSensitive

UnusedCapacity

Aware

(1) Descriptive ContinuumEXPENSE TRACKING, COST

REPORTING

and CONSUMPTION RATES

(2) Predictive ContinuumDEMAND DRIVEN PLANNING

with CAPACITY SENSITIVITY

bookkeepingprocess and

Lean accounting

Direct costswithout (3) and with

(4) support coststo output groups

Push Activity-Based costing(ABC);

Product costs

Standardcosting to individual outputs;

Project acct;Job ordercosting

Level 6D with Channel andcustomerprofitabilityReporting;

Cost-to-serve

Unused capacity costs (estimated)

Costing Continuum / Levels of Maturity(most companies are Level 5D and 1P)

Source: “A Costing Levels Continuum Maturity Model” by Gary Cokins published by the International Federation of Accountants, 2019

2P

3P

4P

5PPull

Activity-based

ResourcePlanning

Time-drivenABC

ResourceConsumptionAccounting

Simulation

(ABRP);Forecast driver quantities X unit consumption rates;

Driver based budgeting

(TDABC);Forecast driver quantities X time consumption rates;

Direct cost focus;

Repetitive work conditions

(RCA);Level 2P with proportional costing at direct and support depts.

Ultimate in consumption rates;

1P

%G/L acct.

Incremental

Page 74: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

74

Power of Information

$ROI

Raw

Data

Standard

Reports

Ad hoc

Reports &

OLAP

Descriptive

Modeling(with analytics)

Predictive

Modeling

Data Information Knowledge Decisions

Prescriptive Analytics

/ Optimization

The Intelligence Hierarchy

Insights

Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Page 75: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

75

Polling Question #5

Page 76: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

76

Organization

Resources(capacity)

Strategy,Mission

How Does It All Fit Together?

ERP, etc.Customer

Satisfaction

Scorecards,

Dashboards

CRM

ROI

$

ShareholdersOwners

SupplierInputs

Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Connecting customer value to shareholder value

Page 77: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

77

Organization

Resources(capacity)

Strategy,Mission

In Summary … first, we energize with good managerial accounting.

ERP, etc.Customer

Satisfaction

Scorecards,

Dashboards

CRM

ROI

$Shareholders

SupplierInputs

Managerial

Accounting;

Analytics

Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Page 78: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

78

Organization

Resources(capacity)

CRM

ROI

$

ERP, etc.

Risk Mgmt., Strategy map,

KPIs

KPIScores

Feedback

Order fulfillment

Strategy,Mission

CustomerSatisfaction

EPM is Circulatory and Simultaneous

SupplierInputs

Scorecards,

Dashboards

Targeting

needs

Shareholder Wealth Creation is not a goal. It is a result!

Shareholders

Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Page 79: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

79

Organization

Resources(capacity)

CRM

ROI

$

ERP, etc.

Risk Mgmt., Strategy map,

KPIs

KPIScores

Feedback

Order fulfillment

Strategy,Mission

CustomerSatisfaction

Shareholders

EPM is Circulatory and Simultaneous

SupplierInputs

Scorecards,

Dashboards

Targeting

Shareholder Wealth Creation is not a goal. It is a result!

leakage(waste)

wasted resources

needs

Less productivity reduces Shareholder Wealth

Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Page 80: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

80

AGENDA

▪ Eras and Issues with managerial accounting

▪ Basics on activity-based costing (ABC)

▪ Implementing with ABC rapid prototyping

▪ Calculating channel and customer profitability

▪ Applying analytics

▪ Historical versus predictive costing

▪ Barriers slowing the adoption rate

Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Page 81: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

81

Why has the adoption rate for

profitability reporting with ABC

been so slow?

The Buy-in to Performance Management

Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Page 82: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

82

(1) Technical barriers include IT related issues.

(3) Organizational behavior barriers involve resistance to

change, culture, and leadership.

(2) Perception barriers are excess complexity and

affordability.

Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Why is the adoption rate so slow? What are the barrier categories?

Page 83: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

83

Typical Excuses Preventing Being ProgressiveWe are profitable, so why does it matter?

We will purchase software that will fix our problems.

We already know our “true” costs from our general ledger financial reporting

system.

We have done it this way forever. And we don’t do that here. We already know

everything. It is in our heads.

We are a small organization. We’ll worry about better methods when we get larger.

All this hype is just made up stuff from highly paid consultants.

No one looks at the reports I create, so there is no point generating better reports.

We cannot afford better software to fix our problems.

We are way too busy doing other things.

We don’t know where to start or how to get started.

Source: William Vaughn Company CPAs; IMA conference, June 20, 2018

Copyright 2018 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Page 84: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

84

IMA Center for Managing Costing Quality

There are seven seasoned professionals on this IMA task force who share frustration with the

slow adoption rate by accountants of progressive management accounting practices, methods,

and systems.

The task force’s opinion is that most CFOs and accountants continue to use stale and out of

date accounting practices from the 1960s !

Here are links to the task force’s website. The second link is our “Mission” statement. The task

force members are in the third link. Navigate in it a while to see the various “audiences” we are

influencing:

https://www.thecmcq.org/

https://www.thecmcq.org/about-us

https://www.thecmcq.org/advisory-board

Our “demand pull” approach is to “partner with 12+ non-financial and accounting institutes (e.g.,

www.apics.org , www.asq.org , www.cscmp.org ) to enlist their members to communicate with

their CFO’s organization that they are being underserved with flawed, misleading, and

incomplete internal management accounting information to support their decision making.

Copyright 2017 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Page 85: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

85

Action steps▪ Get educated. Get buy-in.

▪ Rapid prototyping. Start small; think big.

▪ Improve incentives. (Motivational theory)

Getting Started Actions and Resources

Copyright 2018 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Resources:

“Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability”; IMA Strategic Finance; February

2015.

http://sfmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/sfarchive/2015/02/Measuring-and-Managing-

Customer-Profitability.pdf

A suggestion: Have your management team read either or both of these

educational pieces. Then schedule a meeting for discussion. Have each

manager answer, “What did I learn? What issues and concerns do I

have about EPM?” This will stimulate needed conversations.

Page 86: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

86

From Theory to Practice

Your success depends

on how well and how fast

the right information and

intelligence gets to the

right people.

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Page 87: Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

87

Thank You

Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Gary Cokins, CPIMAnalytics-Based Performance Management LLC

Cary, North Carolina USA

www.garycokins.com

919 720 2718

[email protected]