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Transcript of Measures of Economic Freedom King Banaian and William Luksetich St. Cloud State University CGU...
Measures of Economic Freedom King Banaian and William LuksetichSt. Cloud State University
CGU Workshop on Political Economy Data and Analysis
7 October 2005
What kind of freedom is good?
• Economic or political?
• Degrees of freedom
• Are all freedoms create equal?– These types of questions
are often subsumed in any index of freedom.
Heritage says…
“The 2005 Index of Economic Freedom measures 161 countries against a list of 50 independent variables divided into 10 broad factors of economic freedom. Low scores are more desirable. The higher the score on a factor, the greater the level of government interference in the economy and the less economic freedom a country enjoys.
“These 50 variables are grouped into the following categories:
• Trade policy, • Fiscal burden of government, • Government intervention in the economy, • Monetary policy, • Capital flows and foreign investment, • Banking and finance, • Wages and prices, • Property rights, • Regulation, and • Informal market activity”Source: http://www.heritage.org/research/features/index/
Our critique has two parts
• First, some of the components of the overall index are more likely to be determinants of economic freedom, while others are expressions of the degree of economic freedom. – What are the dimensions of
freedom? Or, at least, how many are there?
– What are the causal relationships between the factors?
CORRELATION MATRIX OF VARIABLES
Overall ec. Freedom 1.00
Trade 0.69 1.00
Fiscal 0.21 0.14 1.00
Gov't inter. 0.43 0.19 -0.01 1.00
Mon. pol. 0.53 0.22 -0.03 0.07 1.00
For. Inv. 0.78 0.46 0.04 0.33 0.32 1.00
Banking 0.79 0.46 0.17 0.46 0.33 0.66 1.00
Wage/price 0.72 0.40 -0.02 0.38 0.38 0.61 0.61 1.00
Property rights 0.86 0.60 0.07 0.24 0.34 0.63 0.58 0.56 1.00
Regulation 0.82 0.50 0.14 0.23 0.34 0.60 0.57 0.56 0.81 1.00
Informal mkts 0.85 0.60 0.14 0.19 0.36 0.60 0.56 0.51 0.86 0.75 1.00
Overall Trade Fiscal Gov't inter.Mon. pol. For. Inv. Banking
Wage/price
Property rights
Regulation
Informal mkts
Principal components of Heritage Economic Freedom Index
Variable Factor 1 Factor 2 Factor 3 Factor 4 Trade -0.762 -0.087 -0.121 -0.037 Fiscal -0.087 -0.988 -0.000 -0.022 Government Intervention -0.056 0.026 -0.907 -0.080 Monetary Policy -0.185 0.016 -0.048 0.942 Foreign Investment -0.620 0.013 -0.468 0.250 Banking & Finance -0.506 -0.183 -0.628 0.263 Wage/Price Control -0.480 0.099 -0.542 0.383 Property Rights -0.904 0.018 -0.170 0.164 Regulation -0.818 -0.073 -0.191 0.221 Informal Markets -0.885 -0.071 -0.109 0.193 Eigenvalues 4.9556 1.1356 1.0168 0.80376 Cumulative% 0.496 0.609 0.711 0.791
Sorted index of economic freedom
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
1 15 29 43 57 71 85 99 113 127 141
Ind
ex (
1-5)
Note the pattern: A large group “in the middle”
Nobody’s perfect
How free is free?
2624
21
1619 20
11
47 6
0 00
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10M
ore
Number of times scored 1 or 2
Fre
qu
en
cy
Nobody scores “free or mostly free” in all ten categories. Only 26 aren’t free or mostly free in any category.
How unfree is unfree?
3
8 7
15
69
18
25
13
32
18
00
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Mor
e
Number of times score 3, 4, 5
Fre
qu
ency
Countries that are free will likely have no more than two categories with scores over 2. But many countries score 3-5 in eight or more categories. What does this mean?
Looking at intermediate behavior
• Behavior of those in the middle are interesting.– Are there institutions that come
before others?• That would require causality
testing, beyond our scope.
– One way to be sure our results aren’t sensitive to outliers.
• So we look here at the 72 countries that Heritage classifies as “mostly unfree”
What’s consistent about these countries?
Property Rights
0 0
21
46
5 00
20
40
60
1 2 3 4 5 More
Score
Freq
uenc
y
Regulation
0 013
52
70
0
20
40
60
1 2 3 4 5 More
Score
Freq
uenc
y
Regardless of how these countries scored otherwise, none scored “free or mostly free” in property rights or regulation.
What’s inconsistent?
Monetary Policy
25
1519
7 60
0
10
20
30
1 2 3 4 5 More
Score
Freq
uenc
y
Government Intervention
1
4
1412
14
1113
3
0 00
5
10
15
11.
5 22.
5 33.
5 44.
5 5M
ore
Score
Fre
qu
ency
Here are two measures all over the map.Odd to see that monetary policy looks
pretty good for mostly unfree countries!
Here are four others
Fiscal Policy
9
02468
10
Count
Freq
uenc
y
Wage/Price Controls
0
15
54
3 0 00
20
40
60
1 2 3 4 5 More
Count
Freq
uenc
yBanking and Finance
0
14
3025
2 00
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 More
Count
Fre
qu
ency
Informal Markets
3
13
33
7
16
00
10
20
30
40
3 3.5 4 4.5 5 More
Count
Fre
qu
ency
What does that tell us?
• Countries that are mostly unfree seem to have three freedoms lacking: – Property rights– Regulation– Maybe informal markets
• Seem to have no strong pattern anywhere else.
• Unsurprisingly, those three freedoms appear to correlate well to growth, and to each other.
How many categories make you free?
Although it is not possible at this stage of academic research to know with a high degree of certainty which factors are more important than others for economic freedom, it is clear that, for a country to achieve long-term growth and economic wellbeing,it must perform well in all 10 factors.
(Index of Economic Freedom 2001)
Not all things effect living standards
Component Coefficient std. error R2
Overall score 1.757 0.139 0.51Trade 0.839 0.099 0.32Fiscal policy 0.304 0.182 0.01Government Intervention 0.212 0.153 0.01Monetary Policy 0.437 0.102 0.10Foreign Investment 0.901 0.129 0.24Banking & Finance 0.672 0.116 0.18Wage and price controls 0.855 0.170 0.14Property Rights 1.059 0.076 0.56Regulation 1.326 0.112 0.48Informal Markets 1.139 0.068 0.65
Bold indicates significance at 1% level. Italics indicates signficance at 5% level.Results are simple regressions of per capita GDP on each measure.No controls are used, 153 countries in sample.
Table 2. Living Standards and Aspects of Economic FreedomDependent variable is log of per capita GDP (1990 international dollars)
What matters with property rights?
Coefficient Property Rights std. error R2
Property rights alone 1.0591 1.2466 0.5613.96
Trade 0.27068 0.90266 1.193 0.582.789 9.706
Fiscal policy 0.18752 1.051 1.2352 0.561.546 13.89
Government Intervention -0.13259 1.0825 1.2416 0.561.268 13.89
Monetary Policy 0.11678 1.0171 1.235 0.561.555 12.69
Foreign Investment 0.05735 1.0311 1.2532 0.560.452 10.51
Banking & Finance -0.02132 1.0702 1.2546 0.560.205 11.44
Wage and price controls -0.14037 1.1081 1.2473 0.560.956 12.1
Regulation 0.4679 0.77889 1.1964 0.582.708 6.114
Informal Markets 0.85888 0.3255 0.9739 0.666.58 2.502
Table 4. Property Rights Plus Other Measurements
Property rights, trade and informal markets
Property Rights 0.86359 0.27415 0.319298.996 2.073 2.447
Trade 0.26797 0.160382.773 1.805
Monetary Policy 0.11306 0.053881.539 0.8798
Informal Markets 0.8105 0.843486.126 6.385
Standard error 1.1823 0.9594 0.9762R² 0.58 0.66 0.66
Table 5. Property Rights, Trade and Other Elements of Freedom
Second half of critique
• Is the relationship continuous or discontinuous?– Is a certain amount of
freedom needed to create growth?
– What does it mean to be “mostly unfree”? Or “partly free”?
Does it look continuous? Or is there a threshold?
A precursor, not an indicator
• But this isn’t what the Index is meant for.– “The Index is not designed to
measure the proportionate contribution of a set of statistically independent variables to economic growth. … Rather, the authors of the Index identify a set of institutional factors that, taken together, determine the degree of economic freedom in a society. It is this institutional environment that is viewed as necessary for economic growth in the first place.
(Index of Economic Freedom 2001)
Regressions of steps on growth
Component Value is 2 Value is 3 Value is 4 Value is 5 std. Error R2 Trade 0.59155 0.54819 2.6545 3.5337 1.3181 0.39 1.939 1.689 8.657 3.681 Monetary Policy -0.39291 0.31394 0.72469 1.3764 1.5998 0.10 0.574 0.569 1.332 2.759 Foreign Investment -0.35198 0.24625 1.5536 2.6991 1.449 0.26 0.503 0.367 2.254 3.454 Banking & Finance -0.05617 0.55104 1.064 2.7566 1.504 0.20 0.103 1.061 2.019 4.547 Wage and price controls -0.71107 -0.99381 0.73973 2.5339 1.4656 0.24 0.84 1.317 0.9818 1.546 Property Rights 0.07594 0.88584 2.6703 3.5076 1.1553 0.59 0.2145 2.439 6.343 9.019 Regulation 0.30979 2.3052 3.2266 4.0034 1.3756 0.52 0.871 6.35 7.558 5.329
Do we really need a whole index?
• What may work for living standards is much less.
• If you code a dichotomous variable 0 if property rights are a 4 or 5 on the score and 1 if 1, 2, or 3, you get
log(GDPPPP) = 1.94 + 6.63*recoded property rightsR² = 0.33
Taking Heritage seriously
• Should we skip the notion of estimating the effect of freedom on living standards?
• If there’s a threshold for freedom, we currently aren’t measuring it very well.– We are working on some
techniques to get at the threshold question.
• We also want to know about causal links within the index.– Do we have enough time
periods? Perhaps
Taking measuring freedom seriously
• Aggregation and cardinality are problems.
• Is freedom a means to an end or an end in itself?– How would you measure
freedom’s value without reference to output or happiness?
• Proxies for freedom– Determinants vs. expressions