Meanwhile, Jan 18, 2016

• New GOP ‘candidates:’ Romney, L. Graham; Ryan says no.

• 11 GOP debates scheduled– Aug ’15, Sept ‘15, Oct ‘15, Nov ‘15, Dec

‘15, Jan ‘16 (IA), Feb ‘16 (NH), Feb ‘16 (SC), Feb ‘16 (FL), Mar ’16, Mar ‘16

• Dems (May or June ‘15)?

GOP 2016

• At some point, with so many candidates, is it irrational to NOT run?

• How many can fit in a debate?

Dems 2016

• Hillary not in IA, NH.

Yet.

No polls in 1 month

Election of Women

• Why so much variation

– across nations?

– across American states?

Election of Women

• How (much) is Hillary Clinton disadvantaged by gender?

Election of Women

• Major changes– In US Congress

• about 19%• “big” increase post 1990

– In State legislatures• steady gains post 1970• little change in last 10 years• frozen at about 23%

Election of Women

Election of Women

• Candidate recruitment– In US states, increase in # of candidates

tracked w/ increase in # of women elected

– Since 1992, pool of candidates has not increased much

Election of Women

Election of Women

• Major partisan differences– Since 1990, fewer GOP women elected in states

– More Dem women elected• 31% of D state legislators women• 15% of R state legislators women

– Same pattern in US Congress

Election of Women

Election of Women

• Regional variation– Women have made major gains in some

states• New England, WA, West

– Highest = 41% in CO & VT; 36% NM, 33% WA

– Little representation in many states• South

– lowest = 13% in LA, SC

Election of Women

Election of Women

Election of Women

Election of Women

•

Election of Women

• Questions– Why trends, why flattening in US?– Why partisan differences?– Why regional differences?– What effects of representation?

Election of Women

• Are voters biased against women candidates?

– continued sexism?

• How do we measure: ‘would you vote for a woman candidate’?

• Just ask...• List experiments

Would you vote a _____ for president?

• Gallup, 2012• Admitted bias

against– black (4%)– women (5%)– Hispanic (7%)– Mormons (18%)– GLBT (30%)– Muslims (40%)– atheists, (43%)

Social desirability effects?

Would you vote a woman for president?

• Gallup / GSS– 33% yes late 1940’s

– 92% yes “if your

party...” 2005– 86% yes (party not

stated)

– again, social desirability effects

• List experiments (Streb)– gas prices rising– athletes’ salaries– seat belt rules– corporations

polluting– a woman as

president

Would you vote a woman for president?

• Are “Americans” ready to elect a female president?

• Rather than asking “you” ask generically

• Support drops

• 60% yes, 2006

Would you vote a woman for president?

• Surveys: 5% to 10% admit they won’t vote for a woman

• List experiment results ->

• 26% expressed anger about a woman serving as president

• Largest:– South (32%)– 30-50 y/o (36%)– high income (29%)

Voting and Women as Candidates

• Stereotypes: women = honest government

• Gender as a voting cue in low information elections– Women Dem.

candidates do better than men among liberal voters

– worse among conservative voters

Election of Women

•Are there not enough viable women candidates?

Election of Women

• Major factors– Party recruitment

• Is this reason for party difference?• in US, local parties

– lower office route to

• other nations– Party list placement

Election of Women

• Major factors– Campaign finance

• Men and women have different networks

• Different opportunities for raising money– Women fewer opportunities to raise large sums of

money

Election of Women

• Major factors– quotas

• in Constitution

• in Party rules– In Europe, left parties started quotas earlier

Election of Women

• Single member vs. multi-member districts– WA, AZ....

– Voters more likely to vote for woman if also first have chance to vote for a man?

Australian Parliament

Election of Women

• Why partisan differences?

• Ideology

Election of Women

• Cultural factors?– Scandinavia vs. rest of Europe

• Gender roles different SP, IT than SWE...

– New England vs. US South

Election of Women

• Daniel Elazar’s US Political Culture thesis– Moralistic

• Government advance society, Scandinavians

– Individualistic• politics to advance personal economic goals

– Traditionalistic• hierarchy, authority

Election of Women

Election of Women

Election of Women

• Cultural v. Institutional factors– ‘Traditional’ political cultures =

• fewer women in ‘modern’ careers• fewer women candidates• conservative attitudes about women in

workplace, equality• less recruitment of women candidates

Gender gap: Obama vs. Clinton, Feb 5, 2008

• UT, Clinton +20• CT, Clinton +15• CA, Clinton +14*• MA, Clinton +14*• NY, Clinton +12*• TN, Clinton +11*• AZ, Clinton +10*• NJ, Clinton +10*

• NM, Clinton +9*• AR, Clinton +8*• DE, Clinton +7• GA, Clinton +6• IL, Clinton +6• MO, Clinton +1• AL, tie• OK, Obama +1

Clinton, 2016

• 10% higher turnout for women in presidential elections w/o HRC

• 10,000,000 more women voted in 2004, 2008, 2012 than men

• Women lean Dem in presidential voting since 1992– unmarried women

70% Obama ‘08

Clinton, latest Dem polls

Iowa

• Clinton 57• Bidden 11• Warren 10

New Hampshire• Clinton 56• Warren 15• Sanders 7

National

• Clinton 62• Warren 12• Bidden 10

General election matchups

• Clinton +8 vs. Ryan (not running)

• Clinton +9 vs. J. Bush

• Clinton +10 vs. Christie

• Clinton +11 vs. Rubio (old)

• Clinton +12 vs. Paul

• Clinton +13 vs. Huckabee

• Clinton +15 vs. Cruz

General Election Polls ‘16

• Clinton 56% Huckabee 39%

• Clinton 52% Cruz 36%

• Clinton 51% Paul 39%

• Clinton 49% Christie 39%

• Clinton 49% Bush 40%

• Clinton 49% Rubio 37% June ’14

• Clinton 51% Romney 45% (Nov ’12)