MDL’s Extratropical Storm Surge An Introduction Anne Kramer Scientific Programmer NOAA/NWS/OST/MDL...
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Transcript of MDL’s Extratropical Storm Surge An Introduction Anne Kramer Scientific Programmer NOAA/NWS/OST/MDL...
![Page 1: MDL’s Extratropical Storm Surge An Introduction Anne Kramer Scientific Programmer NOAA/NWS/OST/MDL & TCA.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062317/5a4d1b1c7f8b9ab059993cea/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
MDL’s ExtratropicalStorm Surge
An Introduction
Anne KramerScientific ProgrammerNOAA/NWS/OST/MDL & TCA
![Page 2: MDL’s Extratropical Storm Surge An Introduction Anne Kramer Scientific Programmer NOAA/NWS/OST/MDL & TCA.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062317/5a4d1b1c7f8b9ab059993cea/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
ETSS background• ETSS model is based on
SLOSH, but modified to use GFS winds on 1° grid
• Runs 4x daily in NCEP operations
• Basins updated at MDL’s discretion; updates:– Alaska, Bering Sea: 1996– Alaska, Arctic: 1998– Gulf of Alaska: 2008– East Coast: 1999, 2008– Gulf of Mexico: 1999, 2011– West Coast: 1998, 2011
![Page 3: MDL’s Extratropical Storm Surge An Introduction Anne Kramer Scientific Programmer NOAA/NWS/OST/MDL & TCA.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062317/5a4d1b1c7f8b9ab059993cea/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
ETSS background• Resolution varies
– Gulf of Mexico ~ 4km– East Coast ~ 9.4km– Alaska ~ 6.7km– West Coast ~ 6.5km
• Each run has a 2 day initialization and a 4 day forecast period, for a total of 6 days
• Results posted to the web – http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/ (text
& hydrographs)– http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/SL.us008001/
ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/GT.slosh/ (gridded data)
– http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/SURGE_GOM_EAST/SURGE_GOM_EAST_96_HR.shtml (gridded)
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ETSS results for 3/4/2011
MDL’s website displaying total water level station status map, based on ETSS output
OPC’s website displayinggridded ETSS results
![Page 5: MDL’s Extratropical Storm Surge An Introduction Anne Kramer Scientific Programmer NOAA/NWS/OST/MDL & TCA.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062317/5a4d1b1c7f8b9ab059993cea/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Forecast Total Water Level for Hurricane Ike, Based on ETSS
![Page 6: MDL’s Extratropical Storm Surge An Introduction Anne Kramer Scientific Programmer NOAA/NWS/OST/MDL & TCA.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062317/5a4d1b1c7f8b9ab059993cea/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Forecast Total Water Level for Hurricane Ike, Based on ETSS
OPC’s website displayinggridded ETSS results for 3/4/11
Station total water level plot showing forecast for Ike storm surge event at Galveston, TX
![Page 7: MDL’s Extratropical Storm Surge An Introduction Anne Kramer Scientific Programmer NOAA/NWS/OST/MDL & TCA.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062317/5a4d1b1c7f8b9ab059993cea/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
MDL’s Participation in SURA Inundation Testbed Effort
• Completed– Uploaded to SURA server:
• archived forecast graphs and text files for north East Coast stations for the 3 periods of interest
• Projected– Reproduce gridded forecasts using archived
GFS wind data– Potentially create gridded hindcasts using
reanalysis GDAS winds