McKinsey & Company

CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY

Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company

is strictly prohibited

Breakout session

14th November 2019

The future of mobility is NOW!

McKinsey & Company 3

AgendaPhasing for our session

Opening comments and introductions

Thoughts from Laurel Powers-Freeling, Uber, and Q&A

Thoughts from Shashi Verma, Transport for London, and Q&A

Panel discussion and Q&A

—Laurel, Shashi, Swarna Ramanathan (McKinsey) and James Stamp (National Express)

McKinsey & Company4McKinsey & Company

Seamless mobilityBaseline Business as usual Unconstrained autonomy

Baseline city faces

challenges today, with trip

times averaging over 30

minutes, congestion rising,

and air quality challenges

Urbanisation and population

growth increase passenger

km demand, with limited

regulatory/city government

shaping of the future. Pace

of electrification and

automation disappoints.

Electrification and

automation take off, but

regulators and city

governments fail to keep up.

Robo-taxis take a greater

share than AV shuttles,

contributing to congestion.

Cities encourage the use of

shared AVs through

regulation and incentives.

Residents ‘mix and match’

rail transit and low-cost, point

to point autonomous travel in

AV shuttles easily

SOURCE: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility

How could the future look in 2030?

10%10%15%Congestion, time per trip,

delta from baseline

McKinsey & Company 5

AgendaPhasing for our session

Opening comments and introductions

Thoughts from Laurel Powers-Freeling, Uber, and Q&A

Thoughts from Shashi Verma, Transport for London, and Q&A

Panel discussion and Q&A

—Laurel, Shashi, Swarna Ramanathan (McKinsey) and James Stamp (National Express)

McKinsey & Company 6

AgendaPhasing for our session

Opening comments and introductions

Thoughts from Laurel Powers-Freeling, Uber, and Q&A

Thoughts from Shashi Verma, Transport for London, and Q&A

Panel discussion and Q&A

—Laurel, Shashi, Swarna Ramanathan (McKinsey) and James Stamp (National Express)

EVERY JOURNEY MATTERS

Innovating for citiesShashi Verma

Director of Strategy and Chief Technology Officer

Transport for London

EVERY JOURNEY MATTERS

What are the growth markets for transport in London

Public transport has seen very substantial growth in London, removing the needs for car trips

Cycling has seen the fastest growth, starting from a small base

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

Ind

ex:

20

01

= 1

00

Rail Underground Bus Car driver Population Cycle

Growth in selected modes of travel

Car36%

Walk24%

Bus (including tram)14%

Rail11%

Underground/DLR11%

Cycle2%

Taxi1%

Motorcycle1%

How do people travel?

Most innovation talk is about areas that don’t matter much for how cities work.

The only significant exception is autonomous vehicles, as and when they are made viable

Share of all trips by mode of travelTotal = 26.9 million trips per day

What drives investment?

Innovation needs to focus on not just what is cool but also what is useful. There is no money in being cool alone.

Cool

Useful

Rail

Buses

e-ScooterDrones

Autonomous vehicles

McKinsey & Company 11

AgendaPhasing for our session

Opening comments and introductions

Thoughts from Laurel Powers-Freeling, Uber, and Q&A

Thoughts from Shashi Verma, Transport for London, and Q&A

Panel discussion and Q&A

—Laurel, Shashi, Swarna Ramanathan (McKinsey) and James Stamp (National Express)

McKinsey & Company12McKinsey & Company

What role can we all play in creating seamless mobility?

Optimise supply Optimise demand

Shift to shared modes

▪ Dedicated lanes for shared vehicles

▪ Bikes and e-scooters for last-mile

▪ Active management

of the for-hire fleet

Shifting demand off-peak

▪ Congestion pricing

▪ Commercial deliveries

Optimise rail

▪ Autonomous train operations

▪ Advanced signaling

▪ Predictive maintenance

Optimise road modes

▪ Intelligent traffic systems

▪ Smart parking

▪ AV-readiness

Improve sustainability

Electrify transit Low-emission zones

McKinsey & Company13McKinsey & CompanySOURCE: McKinsey (FoM 3 Urban Mobility Model). Figures are rounded to nearest 5%.

5%

125

40%

25%

35%

35%

20%

115

Baseline

20%

40%

5%

Business as usual

urbanization

5%

15%

25%

10%

Unconstrained

autonomy

40%

5%

5%

10%

20%

40%

Seamless mobility

1001

130

The modal share by scenario for a city like London

10%

Urban leaders and private companies have an opportunity to actively shape the transit system over the next decade, reducing

congestion by 10% from today even while accommodating 30% more traffic

Train

Bus2

Car

Walk/bike

Amount of mobility in example dense metropolitan area, Passenger km/yr1

10%15%

AV Shuttle

Robotaxi

Private Car

Walk/bike

Train

1 Mobility demand indexed as baseline = 100

Congestion,

time per trip