MCDA: Global vs. Local Scales · Forest Management MCDA Native Timber Production Forest Recreation...
Transcript of MCDA: Global vs. Local Scales · Forest Management MCDA Native Timber Production Forest Recreation...
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MCDA: Global vs. Local Scales
Michael C. Runge USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center
Advanced SDM Practicum
NCTC, 12-16 March 2012
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Forest Management MCDA
Native Timber
Production
Forest
Recreation
Old-growth
Conservation
m3/yr Visitor-days (M) %
Increase
production 74,000 1.0 40
Status quo 64,275 1.2 60
Decrease
production 50,000 1.1 70
Swing Scores 95 40 100
Weights 0.404 0.170 0.426
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New Option
Native Timber
Production
Forest
Recreation
Old-growth
Conservation
m3/yr Visitor-days (M) %
Increase
production 74,000 1.0 40
Status quo 64,275 1.2 60
Decrease
production 50,000 1.1 70
Drop production,
close forest partly 60,000 0.8 70
Old range 24,000 0.2 30
New range 24,000 0.4 30
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New Weights
Native Timber
Production
Forest
Recreation
Old-growth
Conservation
m3/yr Visitor-days (M) %
Old range 24,000 0.2 30
New range 24,000 0.4 30
Old swing scores 95 40 100
Old weights 0.404 0.170 0.426
New swing scores
New weights
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New Weights
Native Timber
Production
Forest
Recreation
Old-growth
Conservation
m3/yr Visitor-days (M) %
Old range 24,000 0.2 30
New range 24,000 0.4 30
Old swing scores 95 40 100
Old weights 0.404 0.170 0.426
New swing scores 95 80 100
New weights 0.345 0.291 0.364
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Range adjustments
𝑤(𝑖) =𝑊(𝑖)
𝑟(𝑖)
𝑅(𝑖)
𝑊(𝑗)𝑟(𝑗)
𝑅(𝑗)𝑗
• w*(i) is the new weight on objective i
• W(i) is the old weight on objective i
• R(i) and r(i) are the old and new ranges
for objective i, respectively
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The problem is…
Often, when you change the range,
and ask people to re-weight, they
don’t do it enough
Range Sensitivity Index (RSI)
• 𝑅𝑆𝐼𝑖 =
𝑤𝑖1−𝑤𝑖
−𝑊𝑖1−𝑊𝑖
𝑤∗𝑖1−𝑤∗𝑖
−𝑊𝑖1−𝑊𝑖
• Should be 1.0
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RSI in practice
A number of studies have tested
range sensitivity indices
RSI’s are typically less than 1
• Where people have a lot of experience,
the RSI’s tend to be small
• When people are forced to look at
cross-attribute comparisons, RSI’s are
closer to 1
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Cognitive explanations
The mental calculations for swing-weighting
may be too taxing
People may interpret objective weights as
intrinsic values that don’t vary with the situation
• Do we carry with us global scales for attributes we’re
familiar with (cars prices, cereal prices, etc.)?
Swing weighting creates psychological conflict
• Assigning low weight to the most important
objective because its range is small
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Alternative: Global Scales
Instead of weighting based on local
ranges, defer to the cognitive
predisposition of the decision maker,
and use global ranges
Two steps
• Elicit those global ranges
• Elicit “importance weights”
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Global scales
*Experiential global scale
*Imagined global scale
Aspirational global scale
Universal global scale
Constrained global scale
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Global scale construction
Ask the decision maker to select
attribute values from the natural
scale that
• Are “excellent”, worth highest score
• Are “terrible”, worth lowest score
They need not specify what kind of
global scale they’re thinking of
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Importance Weights
Weights that reflect the overall
importance of the objectives
• That is, over the global scale
Elicitation
• Disregard the particular example
• Rank the attributes
• Score the attributes (100 for best, etc.)
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MCDA with global scales
In the analysis, use the global scales
to re-scale the attributes (to 0,1)
Use the importance weights to
combine across objectives
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Forest Management MCDA
Native Timber
Production
Forest
Recreation
Old-growth
Conservation
m3/yr Visitor-days (M) %
Increase
production 74,000 1.0 40
Status quo 64,275 1.2 60
Decrease
production 50,000 1.1 70
Global scale 0 – 74,000 0.0 – 1.6 0 - 100
Importance:
Scores 90 60 100
Weights 0.36 0.24 0.40
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Local scales
Why do we even use local scales in
MCDA?
• Preferential independence
• Linearity over smaller range
• Easier to think about value over small
range
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Is swing weighting so bad?
The method of elicitation for local
scales matters (Fischer 1995)
• Best: tradeoff methods
• Next: swing weighting
• Worst: direct weighting
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Are global scales better?
People do tend to violate the range
sensitivity principle
• Under-adjust for range
Both method associate weights with
ranges
• Global scales are implicit
Are global scales easier?