Mc afee econ data
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Transcript of Mc afee econ data
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© Andrew McAfee, 2014
Trends
Source: research.stlouisfed.org
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Trends in US GDP, Profits, and Investment1995-2013
GDP
Corporate Investment: Equipment and Software
All Profits After Tax
Non-Financial Profits After Tax
Leve
l of G
DP,
Pro
fits,
and
Inve
stm
ent (
Jan-
95 =
100
)
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© Andrew McAfee, 2014
Trends
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
58
63
68
73
78
Trends in US GDP, Profits, Investment, and Employment,1995-2013
GDP
Corporate Investment: Equipment and Software
All Profits After Tax
Non-Financial Profits After Tax
Employment to Population Ratio
Leve
l of G
DP,
Pro
fits,
and
Inve
stm
ent (
Jan-
95 =
100
)
Empl
oym
ent-
Popu
latio
n Ra
tio
Source: research.stlouisfed.org
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© Andrew McAfee, 2014
Duration of Unemployment
1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 20130
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Mean
Median
Median & Mean Duration of Unemployment, 1948-2013
# of
Wee
ks
Source: research.stlouisfed.org
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© Andrew McAfee, 2014
Job Creation
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1940s 37.7%
1950s 24.5%
1960s 31.3%
1970s 27.4%
1980s 20.2%1990s 19.8%
2000s -1.0%
US Job Growth by Decade, 1940s-2000s
Year in Decade
Perc
enta
ge C
hang
e in
Non
-Far
m P
ayro
ll Em
ploy
men
t
Source: research.stlouisfed.org
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© Andrew McAfee, 2014
Profit vs Labor
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 20120
2
4
6
8
10
96
99
102
105
108
111
114
117
120Corporate Profit as %
of GDP
Labor Shareof GDP
Corporate Profits After Tax as % of GDP & Non-Farm Labor Share, 1947-2013
Corp
roat
e Pr
ofits
as
% o
f GD
P
Labo
r Sha
re (2
009
= 10
0)
Source: research.stlouisfed.org
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© Andrew McAfee, 2014
Skill Disparities
19631965
19671969
19711973
19751977
19791981
19831985
19871989
19911993
19951997
19992001
20032005
2007-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Changes in Wages for Full-Time, Full-Year Male U.S. Workers, 1963-2008
Com
posi
tion-
Adj
uste
d Re
al L
og W
eekl
y W
ages
Graduate School
College Graduate
Some Col-lege
High School Graduate
High School Dropout
Source: Acemoglu and Autor, 2010 http://economics.mit.edu/files/7006
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© Andrew McAfee, 2014
Superstar Earners
19131917
19211925
19291933
19371941
19451949
19531957
19611965
19691973
19771981
19851989
19931997
20012005
20090.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
U.S. Top 0.01% Income Share, 1913-2012
Inco
me
Shar
e
Source: Saez, 2013: http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~saez/saez-UStopincomes-2012.pdf
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© Andrew McAfee, 2014
The Great Decoupling
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2012
0
100
200
300
400
US Productivity, Real GDP per capita, Employment and Income: 1947-2012
Labor ProductivityPrivate EmploymentMedian Family IncomeReal GDP per Capita US
1947
=100
Source: research.stlouisfed.org