May FYF presentation (BOE May 5) · 2020. 5. 12. · +rz wr uhdg d )lyh

Columbus City Schools

FIVE YEAR FORECASTMAY 2020

FISCAL YEARS 2017 – 2019 ACTUALFISCAL YEARS 2020 – 2024 FORECAST(FISCAL YEARS 2025 – 2027 PROJECTED)

FINANCE & APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE PRESENTATION: APRIL 15, 2020BOARD OF EDUCATION PRESENTATION: MAY 5, 2020

BOARD OF EDUCATION ADOPTION: MAY 19,2020

Treasurer’s OfficeStanley J. Bahorek, Treasurer/CFOMichael McCammon, Controller

Office of Budget & Financial ManagementScott Gooding, Executive Director

Board Services & Government AffairsErik Roush, Ph.D., Supervisor, Policy And

Government Affairs

“Forecasting is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.”

─ Niels Bohr, Nobel Prize-winning physicist

May 2020 Five Year Forecast

Legal Requirement

• O.R.C. §5705.391 and O.A.C. 3301-92-04

• Adopt prior to November 30 of each fiscal year

• Update between April 1 and May 31 of each fiscal year

• Update when events take place that will significantly change the forecast


How to read a Five-Year Forecast(Source: Ohio Department of Education)

• “A forecast is somewhat like a painting of the future based upon a snapshot of today.”

• “…the further into the future the forecast extends, the more likely it is that the projections will deviate from actual experience.”


How to read a Five-Year Forecast(Source: Ohio Department of Education)

• “A variety of events will ultimately impact the latter years of the forecast, such as state budgets …”

• “…encourages district management teams to examine future years’ projections and identify when challenges will arise.”


Forecasting Environment

• Numerous variables which are difficult to predict

• Exogenous variables over which CCS has little to no control

• Uncertainties of the future contribute to actual experience being different than projected


Our Forecast is …

• A snapshot of what we know today coupled with a long list of assumptions about the future

… and is subject to change.


Updates Since November 2019 Forecast

• FY20 End of Year (EOY) Estimates

• Adjustments to future years based on FY20 EOY estimates & FY21 – FY25 budget process


FY20 Est. Revenue Sources


$Millions

FY20 Est. Revenue Sources


% Total Revenue 1% Variance

Property Taxes 54% $5,192,000

State Aid 37% $3,589,000

Property Tax Alloc. 4% $358,000

Other Local 3% $341,000

Non-Operating 2% $163,000

All Revenue Sources $9,643,000



LN Property Taxes FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY241.01 Change (1,600,000)$ (4,300,000)$ (2,900,000)$ (2,000,000)$ (1,300,000)$

May FYF 519,200,000$ 524,200,000$ 535,100,000$ 544,100,000$ 555,400,000$

May Forecast




$2.5M Casino Revenue

LN State Aid FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY241.035&1.04

Change (1,000,000)$ (3,500,000)$ (1,000,000)$ (1,000,000)$ (1,000,000)$

May FYF 358,900,000$ 356,400,000$ 358,900,000$ 358,900,000$ 358,900,000$

May Forecast




LN Prop Tax Alloc FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY241.05 Change (911,943)$ (1,503,938)$ (1,452,155)$ (1,501,705)$ (1,499,255)$

May FYF 35,800,000$ 35,800,000$ 36,600,000$ 37,200,000$ 38,000,000$

May Forecast




LN Other Local FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY241.06 Change 6,280,000$ 2,520,000$ 2,520,000$ 2,520,000$ 2,520,000$

May FYF 34,100,000$ 29,640,000$ 28,940,000$ 28,940,000$ 28,940,000$

May Forecast




LN Revenues FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY241.01 Property Taxes (1,600,000)$ (4,300,000)$ (2,900,000)$ (2,000,000)$ (1,300,000)$

1.035Unrestr State Aid

(1,000,000)$ (3,500,000)$ (1,000,000)$ (1,000,000)$ (1,000,000)$

1.04 Restr State Aid -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 1.05 Prop Tax Alloc (911,943)$ (1,503,938)$ (1,452,155)$ (1,501,705)$ (1,499,255)$ 1.06 Other Local 6,280,000$ 2,520,000$ 2,520,000$ 2,520,000$ 2,520,000$ 2.08 Total Revenues 2,768,057$ (6,783,938)$ (2,832,155)$ (1,981,705)$ (1,279,255)$

May FYF 964,300,000$ 959,540,000$ 973,040,000$ 982,140,000$ 994,240,000$ Pct Change 0.3% -0.7% -0.3% -0.2% -0.1%



Total Revenues5 Years - FY2020

thru FY2024Percent Change

Nov 2019 FYF $4,883,368,995Change for May 2020 FYF ($10,108,995) -0.21%May 2020 FYF $4,873,260,000

May Forecast


FY20 Est. Expenditures Categories


$Millions

FY20 Est. Expenditures Categories


% Total Expenditures

1% Variance

Personnel 66% $6,057,000

Charter, EdChoice, etc. 21% $2,037,628

Non-Personnel 10% $841,372

Debt Related & Other Oper. 2% $149,000

Non-Operating 1% $143,050

All Expenditures $9,228,050



LN Expenditures FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY243.01 Salaries, wages (9,600,000)$ (10,100,000)$ (10,800,000)$ (11,200,000)$ (11,600,000)$ 3.02 Benefits (7,700,000)$ (12,100,000)$ (14,500,000)$ (17,200,000)$ (20,200,000)$

Total Personnel (17,300,000)$ (22,200,000)$ (25,300,000)$ (28,400,000)$ (31,800,000)$ May FYF 605,700,000$ 643,000,000$ 675,000,000$ 696,800,000$ 719,500,000$

May Forecast




LN Expenditures FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY243.03 Purchased Srvcs (9,200,000)$ 1,900,000$ (3,300,000)$ (5,200,000)$ (7,200,000)$

Charter et al. 500,000$ -$ -$ -$ -$ Total (8,700,000)$ 1,900,000$ (3,300,000)$ (5,200,000)$ (7,200,000)$ May FYF 266,300,000$ 293,900,000$ 297,100,000$ 304,700,000$ 312,100,000$

May Forecast




LN Expenditures FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY243.04 Supplies, Mat'ls (2,400,000)$ (2,300,000)$ 1,100,000$ 2,600,000$ 2,000,000$

May FYF 18,000,000$ 23,600,000$ 23,600,000$ 23,600,000$ 23,600,000$

May Forecast




LN Expenditures FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY243.05 Capital Outlay -$ 1,600,000$ 400,000$ 1,500,000$ -$

May FYF 3,600,000$ 5,200,000$ 3,400,000$ 4,400,000$ 3,000,000$

May Forecast




LN Expenditures FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY244.3 Other Objects -$ (100,000)$ (200,000)$ (300,000)$ (200,000)$

May FYF 10,700,000$ 10,900,000$ 11,000,000$ 11,200,000$ 11,500,000$

May Forecast




LN Expenditures FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY245.01 Op. Transf-Out 700,000$ 700,000$ 700,000$ 700,000$ 700,000$

May FYF 4,300,000$ 4,300,000$ 4,300,000$ 4,300,000$ 4,300,000$

May Forecast




LN Expenditures FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24Personnel (17,300,000)$ (22,200,000)$ (25,300,000)$ (28,400,000)$ (31,800,000)$

3.03 Purchased Srvcs (8,700,000)$ 1,900,000$ (3,300,000)$ (5,200,000)$ (7,200,000)$ 3.04 Supplies, Mat'ls (2,400,000)$ (2,300,000)$ 1,100,000$ 2,600,000$ 2,000,000$ 3.05 Capital Outlay -$ 1,600,000$ 400,000$ 1,500,000$ -$ 4.30 Other Objects -$ (100,000)$ (200,000)$ (300,000)$ (200,000)$ 5.01 Op. Transf-Out 700,000$ 700,000$ 700,000$ 700,000$ 700,000$

Total Expend. (27,700,000)$ (20,400,000)$ (26,600,000)$ (29,100,000)$ (36,500,000)$ May FYF 922,805,000$ 985,805,000$ 1,019,305,000$ 1,049,805,000$ 1,078,905,000$ Pct Change -3.0% -2.1% -2.6% -2.8% -3.4%



Total Expenditures5 Years - FY2020

thru FY2024Percent Change

Nov 2019 FYF 5,196,925,000$ Change for May 2020 FYF (140,300,000)$ -2.70%May 2020 FYF $5,056,625,000

May Forecast




FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24Revenue

Nov FYF 961,531,943$ 966,323,938$ 975,872,155$ 984,121,705$ 995,519,255$ Changes 2,768,057$ (6,783,938)$ (2,832,155)$ (1,981,705)$ (1,279,255)$ May FYF 964,300,000$ 959,540,000$ 973,040,000$ 982,140,000$ 994,240,000$

ExpendituresNov FYF 950,505,000$ 1,006,205,000$ 1,045,905,000$ 1,078,905,000$ 1,115,405,000$ Changes (27,700,000)$ (20,400,000)$ (26,600,000)$ (29,100,000)$ (36,500,000)$ May FYF 922,805,000$ 985,805,000$ 1,019,305,000$ 1,049,805,000$ 1,078,905,000$

Revenues Over(Under) ExpendituresNov FYF 11,026,943$ (39,881,062)$ (70,032,845)$ (94,783,295)$ (119,885,745)$ Changes 30,468,057$ 13,616,062$ 23,767,845$ 27,118,295$ 35,220,745$ May FYF 41,495,000$ (26,265,000)$ (46,265,000)$ (67,665,000)$ (84,665,000)$

Ending Cash BalanceNov FYF 240,466,221$ 200,585,160$ 130,552,314$ 35,769,019$ (84,116,726)$ Changes 30,468,057$ 44,084,119$ 67,851,965$ 94,970,259$ 130,191,005$ May FYF 270,934,279$ 244,669,279$ 198,404,279$ 130,739,279$ 46,074,279$

May 2020 Forecast Summary


Early Warning Indicators

• Expenditures begin to exceed Revenues in FY 2021– Same in Oct ‘18, May ‘19, Nov ‘19 FYFs

• Ending cash balance drops below 30-days cash FY2024– 1 years later than in Nov FYF

• No fiscal year with a negative ending cash balance– FY24 was negative in Nov FYF

– FY25 is projected negative


Unknowns / Uncertainties / What’s Not Included

• State Funding–Reduction for

• FY20, FY21, FY22+?

• Loss of SWSF?

–State budget discussions begin in spring of calendar year 2021 (for State FYs 22 & 23)



• Property Taxes–Cash flow impact of delay in 2nd half 2020

collections

–Possible increase in unpaid/delinquent taxes• 2nd half 2020 collection

• 1st half 2021 collection

• 2nd half 2021 collection?



• Expenditures– Potential increases

• Continuation/expansion of online learning

• Impact of physical distancing

• Changes to programming or scheduling for 2020-2021 school year



• Academic program changes

• Collective bargaining• Operating Levy


Columbus City Schools

FIVE YEAR FORECASTMAY 2020

FISCAL YEARS 2017 – 2019 ACTUALFISCAL YEARS 2020 – 2024 FORECAST(FISCAL YEARS 2025 – 2027 PROJECTED)

FINANCE & APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE PRESENTATION: APRIL 15, 2020BOARD OF EDUCATION PRESENTATION: MAY 5, 2020

BOARD OF EDUCATION ADOPTION: MAY 19,2020

Treasurer’s OfficeStanley J. Bahorek, Treasurer/CFOMichael McCammon, Controller

Office of Budget & Financial ManagementScott Gooding, Executive Director

Board Services & Government AffairsErik Roush, Ph.D., Supervisor, Policy And

Government Affairs

May FYF presentation (BOE May 5) · 2020. 5. 12. · +rz wr uhdg d )lyh

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