May 3, 2004Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability Global Change and the Earth System Jill Jäger...
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![Page 1: May 3, 2004Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability Global Change and the Earth System Jill Jäger Co-Director, Advanced Institute on Vulnerability to Global.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052701/56649e045503460f94aefe2d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
Global Change and the Earth System
Jill JägerCo-Director, Advanced Institute on
Vulnerability to Global Environmental Change
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
Global Change and the Earth System
• An integrated Earth System
• Planetary machinery
• The Anthropocene Era
• The responses of the Earth System to human activities
• Consequences for human well-being
• Towards Earth System Science and Global Sustainability
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
An Integrated Earth System
• The extent to which, over the geologically recent past, the Earth behaves as a single, interlinked, self-regulating system was illustrated in 1999 with the publication of the 420,000 year record from the Vostok ice core
• This systematic behaviour is due to a combination of external forcing (e.g. Solar radiation) and a large and complex array of feedbacks and forcings within the Earth‘s environment
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
The Nature of Global Change
• Global change is more than climate change
• The world‘s population has doubled since 1960
• Since 1950 the global economy has increased by more than a factor of 15
• Economy inequality is increasing
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
The Nature of Global Change
• World petroleum consumption increased by a factor of 35 since 1960
• Transport accounts for 25% of world energy use
• Urbanisation increased 10-fold in the 20th Century
• Interconnectedness is increasing rapidly (communication, travel, globalisation of economies)
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
The Nature of Global Change
• Nearly 50% of the land surface has been transormed by direct human action
• More nitrogen is now fixed through fertilization and fossil fuel combustion than is fixed naturally
• More than half of all accessible freshwater is appropriated for human purposes
• Concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased substantially
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
The Nature of Global Change
• Coastal wetlands are significantly affected (e.g., loss of 50% of the world‘s mangrove ecosystems)
• 47 – 50% of marine fish stocks are fully exploited; 15 – 18% overexploited; 9 – 10% depleted
• Extinction rates are increasing sharply in marine and terrestrial systems
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
Planetary Machinery
• Without humans the Earth System functioned within domains characterised by well-defined limits and periodic patterns
• Interconnections among physical, chemical and biological processes; between land, ocean, and atmosphere
• Rapid, abrupt changes can occur
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
Connectivity via the oceans and their currents
• Exchange of water between surface and deep ocean
• Driven by cooling of surface water in polar regions
• Thermohaline circulation (i.e. Salinity plays a role too)
• Metaphor – a conveyor belt moving water, heat, and other properties and substances around the world‘s ocean basins
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
More connectivity
• Q: Why do we find carbon sink areas in the Indian Ocean?
• A: An aerosol plum from South Africa provides iron and nutrients, supporting enhanced biological activity and as a result the carbon sink in the South Indian Ocean
• Link between continental, terrestrial ecosystems and their remote (up to 5000 km) marine equivalents
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
The Anthropocene Era
• The planet is now dominated by human activities• Human changes are complex, interacting, often
exponential in rate, and globally significant in magnitude
• Human driving forces are also complex and interactive
• No evidence that the Earth System has previously experienced these types, scales, and rates of change („no-analogue“ situation)
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
Drivers of Change
• Industry
• Energy and transport
• Provision of food*
• Forestry
• Recreation and tourism
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
Evidence of Change
• Land cover
• Greenhouse gas concentrations, photo-oxidants, aerosols
• Hydrological cycle
• Coastal and marine environments
• Biological diversity*
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
Socio-economic drivers
• Urbanisation
• Globalisation*
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
The Response of the Earth System to Human Activities
• Human impacts do not have separate, simple cause-effect responses
• The responses cascade through the Earth System
• The responses seldom follow linear chains; they interact with each other (damping or amplifying)
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
A Cascade of Effects Triggered by Fossil Fuel Combustion
• Q: How can use of an air conditioner in a midwestern American home or a drive down a German Autobahn influence the ability of an African farmer in the Sahel to grow food for his family?
• Fossil fuel combustion -> production of sulphate aerosols -> changed radiative balance near Earth‘s surface -> near-surface cooling regionally
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
The Cascade Continues
Cooling in Europe in North America in 1960s – 1980s -> changed latitudinal temperature gradient between North Atlantic Region and tropics and subtropics -> changed atmospheric circulation -> shift position of African Monsoon over Northern Africa ->changed rainfall patterns, including drying climate in the Sahel
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
Multiple and Interacting Changes
• Over the last 4 or 5 decades an increasing number of stresses of human origin have begun to interact with the natural disturbance daynamics of coral reefs
• Increasing nutrient and sediment loadings (agricultural and industrial activities), intensive fishing, tourism, increasing atmospheric CO2 (changes carbonate chemistry), warming of the upper ocean layers (thermal stress -> bleaching
• Reduced resilience of reefs to external perturbations
• 58% of world‘s coral reefs at medium to high risk
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
Living with Global Change
• Implications for human well-being• Basic goods and services provided by the Earth
System (e.g. Food, water, air quality)• Impacts are not the same around the world• The concept of VULNERABILITY provides a
useful framework within which to study the consequences of global change
• Abrupt changes and surprises are also possible
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
Towards Earth System Science and Global Sustainability
• What will be the nature of changes in the Earth System over the coming decades?
• What are the implications for humankind?
• What type and scale of management responses are consistent with the scientific knowledge base?
• How must science itself change to tackle the challenges ahead?
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May 3, 2004 Advanced Instiute on Vulnerability
Global Change and the Earth System
• The Earth is a system that life itself helps to modulate
• Global change is much more than climate change. It is real, it is happening now, and it is accelerating
• The human enterprise drives multiple, interacting effects that cascade through the Earth System in complex ways
• The Earth‘s dynamics are characterised by critical thresholds and abrupt changes
• The Earth is currently in a „no-analogue“ state