May 2021 – Market Update

Summary: Positive ag trends continue, leading to strong 2021 grower economics and fertilizer demand

2

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21

2018=100 Commodity PricesIndexed Daily Close of Front Month Contract

Corn Soy Palm Oil

Source: CME; MDEX0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Plant Nutrient AffordabilityPlant Nutrient Price Index / Crop Price Index

Affordability Metric Average 2010-present

Sources: Weekly Price Publications, CME, USDA, AAPFCO, Mosaic

Data through April 30, 2021

Less Affordable

More Affordable

Higher ag commodity prices are offsetting the impact of higher fertilizer prices, keeping the affordability index below average.

Commodity Current Price YTD Y-o-Y

Corn $7.40/bu +53% +138%

Soybean $15.71/bu +19% +85%

Palm Oil MYR4,408/t +12% +110%


Summary: Strong demand led to continued positive pricing momentum through April 2021

3

As expected, trade flows have adjusted and global price benchmarks have reverted towards parity. Phosphate prices in 2021:• NOLA DAP + $165 / tonne; MAP + $138 / tonne• Brazil MAP + $183 / tonne• India DAP + $189 / tonne

Potash prices in 2021:• Brazil + $115 / tonne• U.S. Midwest + $61 / tonne• SE Asia + $43 / tonne

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21

$ per tonne

Source: Argus; Green Markets

Published MOP Prices

c&f SE Asia delivered Corn Belt c&f Brazil

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650


$ per tonne Global DAP/MAP Benchmark PricesPublished Spot Prices

DAP fob NOLA DAP c&f India

MAP fob NOLA MAP c&f Brazil


*weekly average reported spot pricing for prompt deliveryData through April 29, 2021

Phosphate: Industry health has improved markedly

4

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21

$ per Tonne High-Analysis Phosphate Global Net PriceCalculated from Published Weekly Spot Prices

Source: Argus, Mosaic


• Phosphate industry margins – using the global net price as a proxy – rebounded sharply in 2020 (from decade lows) on very strong global demand and post-CVD petition impacts.

• Such a rapid change in benchmark margins has multiple precedents from the past dozen years.

• Higher raw material prices are now trimming margins, but we anticipate a tight global Supply/Demand balance will prevent significant erosion in the foreseeable future.

Global net price averages several global price benchmarks for f inished phosphates and raw materials. It does not include anyhandling, storage, transportation or conversion costs.

Raw material sulphur and ammonia prices are up sharply y-o-y, but relief expected in 2021 on ↑ supply

5

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Jan '15 Jan '16 Jan '17 Jan '18 Jan '19 Jan '20 Jan '21

Percent U.S. Gulf Coast Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity

Average (2015-2019)

Covid-19

Hurricane Harvey

Deep Freeze

• Lower demand for fuels and then the havoc caused by cold weather pushed refinery rates (and hence sulphur production) lower in 2020 and 2021, but has rebounded to ~90% utilization, about two points shy of the historical norm.

• Sulphur price up $138/LT or 256% y-o-y• Ammonia price up $310/LT or 132% y-o-y• Raw material prices are expected to moderate later in

the year on increased supply

0

50

100

150

200

0

200

400

600

800

Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21

Sulphur$/LT

Ammonia$/MT

Weekly Raw Materials Pricesc&f Tampa

Ammonia Sulphur

Source: Argus

Data through April 29, 2021 Data through April 23, 2021

1.2

0.7

1.1

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2019 2020 2021

U.S. Q1 ImportsMil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP

2021 Q1 Regional Phosphate Roundup

6Source: FAI, India Department of Fertilizer, Genscape, China Customs, Siaesp, Mosaic

U.S. imports from offshore sources continued to trend higher after a rebound in Q4 2020. Q1 imports were up 55% or over 400kt y-o-y.

India struggled to secure more DAP in the face of dropping pipeline inventories and demand uncertainty. Q1 DAP imports plugged 69% or nearly 500kt y-o-y.

Strong export demand was able to draw more products from Chineseproducers despite healthy domestic pull. Q1 exports were up 15% or 234kt y-o-y, while production is estimated 23% or 1.4mmt higher vs. last year’s depressed level.

Import demand has been strong particularly for NP+S and TSP in Q1. Brazilianphosphate imports were up 232kt or 19% y-o-y.

1.0

0.7

0.2

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

2019 2020 2021

India Q1 ImportsMil Tonnes DAP

1.81.6

1.8

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2019 2020 2021

China Q1 ExportsMil Tonnes DAP/MAP/TSP

0.9

1.21.5

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2018 2019 2020

Brazil Q1 ImportsMil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP

U.S. Phosphate Fertilizer Imports (with CVD recap)

7

►Petitions filed with DOC & ITC to request initiation of CVD investigations on June 26th

►Affirmative decision received from ITC on August 7th

►Affirmative DOC decision on November 23rd

►DOC issues final affirmative countervailing duty determination on February 9th, 2021

► ITC affirmative vote on March 11th, 2021

►Final CVD duties become applicable from April 3rd, 2021

• Trade flows continued to adjust as the CVD petition progressed thru Q1.

• Strong demand in the U.S. attracted products from a more diversified supply base.

• On the basis of strong demand, imports are estimated to be ~400,000 tonnes higher y-o-y through Q1 (and through April).

• Some of the volume from Morocco in Q1 was for bonded shipment to Canada via the U.S.

• Other origins include Australia, Egypt and Lebanon.

Source: Genscape; market publications, Mosaic

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Q12020

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12021

Mil Tonnes U.S. Offshore Phosphate Imports(DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP)

Other

Lithuania

Jordan

Mexico

Saudi

Israel

Russia

Morocco

61

6667 67

70 7071

7472 72

76

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21F

Mil Tonnes Global Phosphate ShipmentsDAP/MAP/NPS/TSP

Global Phosphate Demand

8

77 - 79

* NPS products included in this analysis are those w ith a combined N and P2O5 nutrient content of 45 units or greater.

• We have again revised up our estimate of global phosphate shipments in 2020 (by ~0.6mmt), returning global demand to it’s historical trendline growth path. We believe that the sharp rally in ag commodity prices continues to bode well for global demand in 2021, with our baseline forecast calling for 2.4% y-o-y growth (1.8mmt).

0.10.60.3

0.20.70.0

1.10.7

0.30.6

0.2

-0.8

0.9

0.2

-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5

2020E 2021F

YoY Changes of Phosphate Shipments(Mil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPs/TSP)

China

India

Other Asia

Brazil

Other L Amer

Europe+FSU

North America

Global Phosphate Shipment Forecasts by Region

9

DAP/MAP/NPS*/TSPMil Tonnes 2019 2020E Low

2021FHigh

2021F Comments

China 17.8 18.8 18.8 19.1

Domestic phosphate shipments in 2020 increased for the f irst time in f ive years, and our latest data suggests the increase was roughly 1mmt (or about double our previous estimate). Our outlook for modest grow th in 2021 is maintained (though could prove too conservative), but now from a ~0.5mmt higher base, as strong ag commodity prices support demand. Production w as up sharply y-o-y in Q1 (in the absence of the COVID-related interruptions seen last year): We estimate the increase at ~1.4mmt y-o-y, though the bulk of this increase remained in-country, w ith exports rising little more than 200kt y-o-y. A moderate producer inventory build from very low levels to start the year, as w ell as an early and strong domestic pull absorbed the bulk of the increase. Despite the inventory build, stocks are estimated to be over 1mmt low er y-o-y.

India 11.3 11.4 10.5 10.9

India remains a diff icult market to forecast in 2021, due in large part to continued uncertainty around a f inal subsidy level. Current importer economics a prevailing international prices do not w ork without a meaningful increase to the subsidy. Even assuming such, the MRP w ill most likely be record high by a w ide margin. There are positive offsets, however, such as low stocks – total inventories are ~2.3mmt low er y-o-y at the end of April; a good monsoon outlook; above-average reservoir levels; decent grower economics despite higher input costs. Due to the uncertainty, w e have again low ered our shipment forecast by ~300,000 tonnes (less so for imports due to low er anticipated domestic production in the face of a higher-than-expected phosacid price).

Other Asia/Oceania 9.4 9.7 10.2 10.4Farm economics continue to be favorable in most geographies and buyer interest w as strong in Q1 despite rising prices. Palm oil prices have more than doubled y-o-y. How ever, COVID-19 impacts remain a cautionary f lag to demand and w e have pared back our demand grow th expectations to reflect this. Our 2021 forecast is unchanged.

Europe and FSU 6.6 7.0 7.1 7.3 Our expectations for more modest shipment grow th in Europe/FSU are unchanged, though early shipment data from 2021 suggest the potential for more upside. Unlike in recent reviews of this region, dry/drought conditions closed out Q1 having largely moderated.

Brazil 8.4 9.6 10.1 10.3Strong domestic shipments and import demand in Q1 have prompted a small upw ard revision to our 2021 shipment forecast. The ag sector continues to be lif ted by higher prices and still-w eak FX, and farmer purchasing activity continues to run ahead of historical norms. We expect this robust demand pattern to persist through 2021 and beyond, particularly if this year’s safrinha corn crop underperforms on yield due its late planting and the recent onset of the dry season.

Other Latin America 3.9 4.7 4.6 4.9More fulsome 2020 import statistics have resulted in an upw ard revision to our estimate. Continued favorable farm economics and a mostly benign w eather outlook is expected to support demand, though w e continue to show much more conservative growth this year as higher prices could trim buyer appetite at the margins.

North America 9.8 9.9 10.3 10.6

Generally average spring w eather (and without delays from surplus soil moisture), combined w ith strong farmer balance sheets is driving acreage higher. Coupled w ith the continued rally in ag commodity prices, farmer demand for inputs is outperforming our earlier expectations and w e have revised our 2021 estimates higher by ~400,000 tonnes (up 6.5% y-o-y). Importantly, this grow th does not include a restocking of channel inventories that are believed to have closed out 2020 at very low levels. Imports in Q1 w ere ~400,000 tonnes higher, driven by strong demand and some “catch up” from the low er level seen in 2020.

Other 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.4 Our 2021 forecast is revised slightly higher, though w e continue to believe that higher prices w ill act to curb grow th, most notably in Africa.

Total 72.5 76.1 77.0 79.0 Our 2020 shipment estimate w as revised higher by ~0.6mmt to 76.1mmt and now shows 5.0% y-o-y growth in 2020. Our 2021 forecast is also revised higher by a similar 0.6mmt to 77.9mmt (up 2.4% y-o-y) and w e have opted to revise our forecast range higher to 77-79mmt.

Source: IFA, CRU and Mosaic(regional figures may not sum to total due to rounding)

* NPS products included in this analysis are NP and NPS products with a combined N and P2O5 nutrient content of 45 units or greater.

May 2021

2021F Major Phosphate Market Demand Summary

10Source: CRU and Mosaic

Lower imports kept North Americaphosphate shipments little-changed in 2020 (but also resulted in a significant drawdown of channel inventory). Strong demand YTD 2021 appears supportive of >6% y-o-y growth.

India’s ag sector grew modestly in 2020 and DAP/NPS shipments were up ~1.5%. Due to higher prices and subsidy uncertainty, our baseline 2021 forecast shows a 7% contraction y-o-y.

The trend of declining phosphate demand in Chinareversed in 2020, instead increasing 5% y-o-y. Our 2021 forecast is conservatively estimated up another 1% y-o-y due to quite favorable farm economics, which should constrain export availability despite higher production.

Brazil phosphate fertilizer shipments are estimated to have grown 13% in 2020. Continued favorable farm economics are expected to continue in 2021 and we have revised our full-year forecast higher to 7% y-o-y growth.

9.8 9.9 10.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

19 20 21F

North AmericaMil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP

17.8 18.8 19.0

0

5

10

15

20

19 20 21F

ChinaMil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP

8.49.6 10.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

19 20 21F

BrazilMil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP

11.3 11.410.6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

19 20 21F

IndiaMil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP

Phosphate Supply / Demand Forecast(Incremental Y-o-Y Change)Mil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP 2020E 2021F Comments

Projected Shipment Changes 3.62 1.84Percent Change 5.0% 2.4%

Potential Supply Changes 0.20 1.57Base Case China Export Change -0.78 0.02 Broadly flat exports despite higher margins (constrained by strong domestic demand)OCP Line F Ramp-Up and Debottlenecking 1.50 0.25 Commissioning delayed to H2 '21; Line F full capacity end-2022MWSPC Ramp-Up -0.11 0.34 Production recovers to ~2.4mmt DAP-equivalent after setback in 2020.GCT M'dilla Commissioning / Ramp-up 0.00 0.09 Notable uncertainty if this will occur.Turkey/Egypt Greenfields 0.27 0.18 Both projects achieve full utilization in 2021.Russian Expansions 0.00 0.15 Incremental volumes from PhosAgro Volkhov.Other Ramp-Ups / Closures -0.13 0.09 NTR Redwater resid. ('20); CIL-India expansion ('20/21); Philphos restart ('21)Misc. Known Operational Changes 0.55 -0.35 e.g. IPL-Australia rebound ('20); Misc outages in '21 (U.S./S. Africa/Tunisia)COVID-19 Curtailments '20 / Recovery '21 -1.10 0.80 Production recovery of ~2/3's of volume lost in 2020.S/D Surplus (+) / Deficit (-) -3.41 -0.28

Source: Mosaic

Moderate demand growth forecast, as higher prices may curb strong growth seen in 2020 (through a depleted channel will act as an offset)

Phosphate S/D: We continue to anticipate a more balanced (though still tight) market through 2021

11

• We revised our estimate of global phosphate shipments in both 2020 and 2021 higher, and maintain our forecast of global demand to increasing a more moderate 1.5-2.0mmt this year.

• Demand growth is supported by continued constructive agricultural fundamentals. We believe their to be more upside than downside risk to our forecast.

The large “deficit” in 2020 was offset by a correspondingly large drawdown in producer inventories (to historically low levels); channel inventories were also pulled lower (though not

addressed in the above analysis)

Closer to balance in 2021, but only if demand growth halves y-o-y and production ramp ups

are realized (a sizable “if”); note that these estimates necessarily do not allow for inventory

restocking (producer or channel)

Phosphate: Strong demand pushes inventory at both producer and channel levels significantly lower y-o-y

12Source: India Department of Fertilizer and CPFIA

Channel Inventory: India inventory figures provide a proxy for how global channel inventories have evolved:• Trade inventories in end-April of 1.2mmt are 56% lower

y-o-y.• Company inventories in end-April of 0.8mmt are 47%

lower y-o-y.• Total inventories in end-April are 2.3mmt lower y-o-y.

Producer Inventory: China producers inventory figures provide a proxy for how global producer inventories have evolved:• Inventory as of the end of February of 1.7mmt, despite

short-term slowdown and regional logistics constraints, were still 33% or 0.8mmt lower y-o-y.

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Mar-19 Jul-19 Nov-19 Mar-20 Jul-20 Nov-20 Mar-21

Mil Tonnes India DAP Inventory

Trade Company

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0.5

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1.5

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3.0

3.5

Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21

Mil Tonnes China DAP/MAP Producers Inventory

MAP DAP

Brazil Phosphates

13

2020 4% or43 kt y-o-y

Source: ANDA, Siacesp, Mosaic

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0.5

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3.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Mil Tonnes Brazil Phosphate Imports(DAP/MAP/TSP/NPS)

2019=6.8mmt 2020=7.8mmt 2021=8.7mmt

2021 Q1 19% or232kt y-o-y

• The Brazilian fertilizer market is estimated to have grown nearly 10% to 39.8mmt in 2020. • The continued rally in ag commodity prices is incentivizing farmers to increase area and pursue maximum yields again in 2021

(e.g. even for the late-planted safrinha corn in Q1). We are forecasting around 2mmt or 5% y-o-y growth in total fertilizer shipments in 2021.

• Phosphate imports surged ~1mmt or 14% to 7.8mmt last year and volumes are expected to stay at elevated levels and mark a third consecutive annual record.

0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21F

Mil Tonnes Brazil Phosphate Imports

DAP TSP MAP/NPS Forecast Range

2019: 6.82020: 7.82021F: 8.7

8.5 – 8.8

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3.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Mil Tonnes India DAP Imports

2019=5.6mmt 2020=6.3mmt 2021=5.8mmt

India DAP

14

2021 Q1 68% or478kt y-o-y

• We expect DAP imports to range 5.7-6.0mmt in 2021.• DAP pipeline inventories remain precariously low in the face of strong demand pull (flat y-o-y in Q1 at 1.7mmt), a dearth of

imports (down nearly 500,000 tonnes y-o-y) and lower production (down ~350,000 tonnes y-o-y).• Subsidy policy changes remains the most important factor, as retail prices are expected to rise due to higher

international prices and a proposed cut to the P subsidy.

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10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21F

Mil Tonnes India DAP Imports

Actual Forecast Range

5.7 - 6.0

2019: 5.62020: 6.32021F: 5.8

Source: FAI, India Department of Fertilizer, Mosaic

China Phosphates

15

• Q1 phosphate production is estimated to have rebounded (+1.4mmt or 23%) from the low level a year ago (due in part to COVID-shutdowns) as producers ramped-up production to meet strong demand, particularly from the domestic market.

• Exports were up a rather modest ~230kt y-o-y in Q1 and we maintain that total phosphate exports are likely to stay broadly flat in 2021 as healthy domestic demand and low channel inventory limit export availability.

• Export volume is also likely to be influenced by Indian import volume.

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Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Mil Tonnes China Phosphate Exports

2019=10.1mmt 2020=9.3mmt 2021=9.3mmt

2021 Q1 15% or234kt y-o-y

Source: China Customs and Mosaic

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12

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21F

Mil Tonnes China Phosphate Exports

TSP MAP DAP Forecast Range

9.2 - 9.6

2019: 10.12020: 9.32021F: 9.3

55%

61%

67%

73%

79%

85%

91%

97%

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80

85

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21F 22F 23F 24F 25F

UtilizationMil Tonnes Global Phosphate ShipmentsDAP/MAP/NPS/TSP

Actual/Estimates Mosaic Forecast Ranges

CRU - April 2021 Capacity Utilization

Phosphate Outlook: Even a modest demand growth forecast is expected to offset new supply

16

• We expect an increase in 2021 capacity utilization, and expect the industry to hold relatively stable at this historically elevated rate unless additional new projects are announced/commissioned later in the forecast period.

Source: IFA, CRU and Mosaic

~2.3% CAGR ~1.4% CAGR

* NPS products included in this analysis are those with a combined N and P2O5 nutrient content of 45 units or greater.

Potash: Positive momentum continues in 2021

17

*weekly average reported spot pricing for prompt deliveryData April 29, 2021

• U.S. prices are rising rapidly in the face of healthy demand prospects and renewed concerns of spring availability.

• Cornbelt granular prices are up $61/mt since January 2021.

• Prices in SE Asia are up ~$43/mtsince the beginning of the year, and Brazil prices are up ~$115/mt.

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450

Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21

$ per tonne


Published MOP Prices

c&f SE Asia delivered Corn Belt c&f Brazil

2021 Q1 Regional Potash Roundup

18Source: FAI, India Department of Fertilizer, Genscape, China Customs, Siaesp, TDM, Mosaic

U.S. offshore imports remained at elevated levels as buyers tried to secure supply for strong Spring demand. Q1 imports were estimated to have jumped 139% or almost 600kt from last year’s low level.

Indian imports dropped in Feb/Mar in the face of subsidy uncertainty and contract (re)negotiations. Q1 arrivals declined 7% or 65kt y-o-y.

2.9

2.12.5

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5

2019 2020 2021

China Q1 Imports (Net)Mil Tonnes KCl

1.00.9 0.9

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

2019 2020 2021

India Q1 ImportsMil Tonnes KCl

Over 1.0Mt of MOP cleared Chinesecustoms in March and that pulled imports ahead of last year’s pace. Q1 net imports were up 20% or 433kt y-o-y.

Brazilian imports were strong, particularly in January/February. Q1 imports were up over 44% or 692kt y-o-y.

0.7

0.4

1.0

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

2019 2020 2021

U.S. Q1 ImportsMil Tonnes KCl (offshore)

1.91.6

2.3

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2019 2020 2021

Brazil Q1 ImportsMil Tonnes KCl

53

56

5153

6462

61

67 67

63

69

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20E 21F

Mil TonnesKCl

Global MOP Shipments

Global Potash Demand

19

Source: IFA, CRU, TFI and Mosaic

69 - 71

• We have also revised up our estimate of global MOP shipments in 2020 (by almost 1.5mmt). The sharp rally in ag commodity prices support global demand growth in 2021, which is forecast to range 69-71mmt.

0.5 0.40.7

0.1

1.2

0.4

1.4

1.0

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0.8

1.1

-0.7

0.7

-0.5

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

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3.0

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7.0

2020E 2021F

YoY Changes of MOP Shipments(Mil Tonnes KCl)

China

India

Indonesia+MalaysiaLatin America

North America

Europe+FSU

Other

Global Potash Shipment Forecasts by Region

20

Muriate of PotashMil Tonnes KCl 2019 2020 Low

2021FHigh

2021F Comments

China 15.8 16.4 15.8 16.1

Chinese MOP shipments are expected to retreat from last year’s high level. Good port offtake for Spring demand had kept port inventories at below 3.0mmt thru much of April despite sizable import arrivals in Q1 (+20% from low level a year ago). Our forecast for 2021 is based on the assumption that shipments from local producers are constrained by lower (-3%) y-o-y production and minimal on-site inventories to draw from, as w ell as relatively f lat overall imports, w hich we assume w ill be constrained by producer reluctance to ship large quantities under the current contract price (though cross border volumes from Russia could provide and offset). Agricultural fundamentals remain very constructive.

India 4.0 5.1 4.2 4.5After a spectacular rebound of demand (+27% y-o-y) in calendar year 2020, India’s MOP imports could drop as affordability suffers with a higher MRP and a reduced ‘farmer w allet’ due to higher phosphate prices. In addition, reduced supply availability due to India, despite the renegotiated price, w ill likely remain one of the low er-priced benchmarks this year. We have reduced our forecast to a rather conservative range in the face of a disappointing Q1 (imports dow n 34% y-o-y) while continuing to closely monitor w eather and subsidy developments.

Indonesia & Malaysia 3.9 4.1 4.7 5.0MOP imports to Indonesia and Malaysia in 2020 w ere largely in line w ith our expectation and that allow ed the countries to draw down channel inventories. Preliminary trade data suggest healthy vessel arrivals in Q1 and w e continue to expect meaningful demand recovery in 2021 as CPO prices have surged and plantations try to revive palm oil output and rebuild stocks (Q1 CPO output still dow n 5% y-o-y and end-March inventories w ere down 16% y-o-y). Labor and logistics situations resulted from COVID-related travel restrictions remain a potential headw ind.

Other Asia 4.3 4.7 4.9 5.1 Imports from Oceania w ere off a good start this calendar year. A favorable weather outlook and farmer economics in key demand centers are expected to support further growth this year. We have revised higher both our 2020 estimate and 2021 forecast.

W. Europe 4.6 4.9 4.9 5.1 Favorable planting conditions and high crop prices signal prospects for a larger crop (higher area and yield), w hich in turn, are expected to drive fertilizer demand modestly higher in the 2021/22 crop year.

E. Europe & FSU 5.7 6.0 6.0 6.2 We maintain our 2021 forecast and continue to expect modest grow th in the region due to healthy w heat and oilseed profitability.

Brazil 10.5 11.3 11.9 12.3Favorable farmer economics continues to support acreage expansion and higher application rates in Brazil. Total fertilizer shipments are now expected to increase to a record of over 40mmt in 2021 and w e revised up our MOP forecast again by ~400,000 tonnes (up ~8% y-o-y on top of an almost 8% increase in 2020). MOP imports w ere strong in Q1 and inventories w ere only marginally higher than a year ago.

Other L. America 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.2 Estimated MOP shipments to a few markets in this region surprised us to the upside in 2020. Despite positive demand prospects, we continue to take a cautious view and expect a slightly slow er growth pace in 2021 as rising prices hits demand at the margin.

North America 9.2 10.3 10.5 10.8The same agricultural fundamentals supporting demand grow th in the phosphate market are also driving up shipments in the potash market and w e have evised our 2021 shipment forecast higher by ~500,000 tonnes (up 3.5% y-o-y). The tight situation in the U.S. also resulted in higher-than-expected imports from offshore sources in Q1 (up ~600,000 tonnes y-o-y, from the atypically low level last year) as the market tried to secure supply in time to meet strong Spring demand in the face of modest channel inventories.

Other 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.1 We also maintain our demand expectation for this region in 2021 and continue to monitor any potential dow nside risk to our forecast due to increasing fertilizer prices.

Total 63.3 69.0 68.8 71.4 Our estimate of global shipments in 2020 w as revised up again, representing over 9% y-o-y growth. We expect shipments to increase again in 2021, though at a more moderate 2.1% or 1.4mmt. We have thus increased our 2021 forecast range to a record 69-71mmt.

Source: IFA, CRU and Mosaic(numbers may not sum to total due to rounding)

May 2021

2021F Major Potash Market Summary

21Source: CRU and Mosaic

Positive farmer economics and low pipeline inventories in North Americaprompted more offshore imports. Total MOP shipments are forecast to over 10.5 million tonnesthis year.

India’s demand likely will be negatively impacted by uncertainties around retail prices and subsidies. MOP imports could drop below 4.5 million tonnes this year.

Higher acreage and application rates are expected to drive total MOP shipments in Brazil to another record of over 12.0 million tonnes in 2021.

Positive CPO fundamentals and healthy demand in Malaysia and Indonesia are expected to support the ongoing recovery of MOP imports in 2021.

9.210.3 10.7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

19 20E 21F

North AmericaMil Tonnes KCl

10.5 11.312.3

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

19 20E 21F

BrazilMil Tonnes KCl

4.0

5.14.4

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

19 20E 21F

IndiaMil Tonnes KCl

1.1 1.2 1.7

2.8 2.93.2

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

19 20E 21F

Malaysia and IndonesiaMil Tonnes KCl

Malaysia Indonesia

Projected MOP Supply/Demand ChangesMil Tonnes KCl 2020E 2021F CommentsProjected Shipment Changes 5.73 1.42 Moderate demand growth forecast after big upturn in 2020Percent Change 9.1% 2.1%

Projected Supply Changes 4.02 0.98SQM Production Adjustments 0.22 0.17 Production returns to ~1.2 mmt in 2020; incremental increase going forward

K+S Bethune Ramp-Up 0.33 0.13 Production estimated at 1.9mmt in 2020; pond production to slowly ramp going forward

Eurochem Usolskiy Ramp-Up 1.08 0.03 Phase 1 capacity of 2.3mmt in 2020; Phase 1.1 0.5mmt capacity ramping from 2022

Eurochem Volgakaliy Ramp-Up 0.04 0.01 Limited test production in 2020-2021; Phase 1 capacity of 2.3mmt in 2025Uralkali Production / Ramp-Ups 0.20 0.10 Incremental increases from existing sites and S-3 expansion

Belaruskali Petrikovsky 0.15 0.45 Commissioning of 1.5mmt mine in 2020 (first trial MOP production in August)

Other Changes 0.57 0.09 Includes ramp-up at ICL Dead Sea/Suria in 2020/21, lower output from Qinghai

Other Existing Utilization 1.44S/D Surplus (+) / Deficit (-) -1.72 -0.44

Limited new supply may struggle to meet expected demand growth in 2021

22

• We revised our estimate of global potash shipments in both 2020 and 2021 higher, and continue to show demand growth of ~2% y-o-y this year.

• The same constructive agricultural fundamentals that support phosphate demand growth also support potash demand growth in 2021.

The large “deficit” in 2020 was offset by drawdowns of producer inventories;

channel inventories were also believed to kept circa average levels

The “deficit” projected in 2021 will need to be covered by continued strong

supply response from existing producers.

• The Brazilian fertilizer market is estimated to have grown nearly 10% to 39.8mmt in 2020.

• The continued rally in ag commodity prices is incentivizing farmers to increase area and pursue maximum yields again in 2021 (e.g. even for the late-planted safrinha corn in Q1). We are forecasting around 2mmt or 5% y-o-y growth in total fertilizer shipments in 2021.

• MOP shipments could rise another ~8% to a record of over 12.0mmt, while imports set a new record volume in Q1 and are expected to follow a ‘normal’ seasonal trend through year-end.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Mil Tonnes Brazil MOP Imports

2019=10.2mmt 2020=10.9mmt 2021=11.8mmt

Brazil Potash

23Source: ANDA, Siacep and Mosaic

2021 Q1 44% or692kt y-o-y

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21F

Mil Tonnes Brazil MOP Imports


11.6 – 11.9

2019: 10.22020: 10.92021F: 11.8

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21F

Mil Tonnes India MOP Imports


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Mil Tonnes India MOP Imports

2019=4.1mmt 2020=5.1mmt 2021=4.4mmt

India Potash

24

• India MOP imports were almost 525kt in January, but then plugged to an average of slightly above 170kt a month in February and March.

• Slow imports continued to drag channel stocks down to ~1.5mmt by late April (vs 2.0mmt end-December).

• However, demand is expected to be negatively impacted by sharp increase in MOP retail prices. We cautiously lower our MOP import forecast for India to the 4.3-4.5mmt range in calendar year 2021.

Source: FAI, India Department of Fertilizer, Mosaic

2021 Q1 7% or65kt y-o-y 4.3 – 4.5

2019: 4.12020: 5.12021F: 4.4

China Potash

25

• Decent farmer economics support healthy spring demand and pushed domestic prices higher.

• MOP imports exceeded expectation in March and ended the quarter up 20% y-o-y, but import arrivals from the remaining of 2020 contract shipments are expected to have ceased.

• We expect imports could remain flat in 2021, but it could be a function of supply availability.

Source: China Customs and Mosaic

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Mil Tonnes China MOP Imports

2019=9.1mmt 2020=8.8mmt 2021=8.7mmt

2021 Q1 20% or426kt y-o-y

0

2

4

6

8

10

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21F

Mil Tonnes China MOP Imports


8.5 – 8.8

2019: 9.12020: 8.82021F: 8.7

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20E 21F 22F 23F 24F 25F

UtilizationMil Tonnes KCl

Global MOP Shipments

Actual/Estimates Mosaic Forecast Ranges

CRU - February 2021 Capacity Utilization

Potash Outlook: New supply expected to slightly trail demand, leading to higher industry operating rates

26

• We continued to expect a gradual, modest increase in global capacity utilization over the next couple of years based on steady demand growth rates and continued ramp-up of existing brownfield and greenfield projects.

• Other new greenfield projects (Talitskyand potentially Jansen) may only offer meaningful tonnage well beyond 2025.

Source: IFA, CRU and Mosaic

~2.6% CAGR ~2.1% CAGR

Ag remains resilient during economic downturns & global balance sheets are snug

27

• World grain and oilseed demand is set to continue grow in 2020 despite the impacts of COVID-19 and the notable world economic downturn.

• Global grain and oilseed balance sheets are snug – supporting farm economics while the global grain and oilseed stocks-to-use ratio is projected to drop to 15.5% in 2020/21, even below the low level seen in 2007/08.

• Crop prices today are signaling the need to rev up production (and hope mother nature will corporate) in the 2021/22 crop year even if overall growth will moderate to ~2.0%.

12%13%14%15%16%17%18%19%20%21%22%23%

200225250275300325350375400425450475

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

%MMT World (Less China) Grain and Oilseed Stocks

Stocks Percent of Use Source: USDA April 2021

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20E

% World G&O Demand vs. World Real GDP(y-o-y % change)

World GDP Growth (%) World G&O Demand Growth (%)

Source: USDA; World Bank; IMF Apr 2021 Forecast (World GDP), Mosaic

USDA will release their initial outlook for 2021/22 on May 12, 2021

Corn438%

Soybean19%

Wheat148%

Barley135%Pork

23%

Beef20%

Poultry26%

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

-1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0

Chg (%)

Chg (mil tonnes)

China Ag Commodity ImportsMarch 2021 YTD Y-o-Y Changes

356%

414%

438%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mil Tonnes China Corn Imports(cumulative)

10-yr Range 2020 2021

2015: 4.72016: 3.22017: 2.82018: 3.52019: 4.82020: 11.3

Chinese appetite for ag products shows no sign of easing after a record 2020

28

• 2021 Q1 China corn imports: record high of 6.7 MMT (+438% y-o-y).

• 2021 Q1 Chinese soybean imports: record high of 21.2 MMT (+19% y-o-y).

• Records set across the animal protein space.

Source: China Customs

y-o-y change

USDA: Despite upward revisions, upside to USDA’s China corn/bean imports forecast remains

29

• USDA’s FAS office in Beijing reported in mid-April that they are now estimating 28mmt of corn imports in marketing year 2020/21 whereas official USDA is still calling 24mmt.

• Soybean imports could also surpass current forecast for the year. Soybean vessel line-ups already suggest a gradual ramp up of arrivals in March and April and imports are expected to increase to over 10mmt in May and June. It takes about 8.7mmt of imports a month between March and September to hit the 100mmt.

Source: China Customs and USDA

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Mil Tonnes China Cumulative Corn Imports(Marketing Year ending September)

2019/20

2020/21

USDA Apr Fcst

0102030405060708090

100

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Mil Tonnes China Cumulative Soybean Imports(Marketing Year ending September)

2019/20

2020/21

USDA Apr Fcst

24.0mmt

100mmt

Ethanol recovery has plateaued at ~90% of pre-Covid, but 20/21 corn demand from ethanol offset by ↑ exports

30

• USDA’s project 20/21 ethanol grind to rebound slightly to 4.95 bbu (still down 0.43 from 2018/19).

• Together with strong export demand (upside risk exists), the U.S. corn use is expected to rebound to almost 14.8 bbu (2nd

highest on record) by the end of this crop year.

• U.S. corn stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to drop to 9.2%, the lowest since 2012/13

5.5 5.3 5.4 5.9 5.7

5.4 5.6 5.4 4.9 5.0

1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4

2.3 2.4 2.1 1.8 2.7

0

3

6

9

12

15

16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21F

Bil. Bu. U.S. Corn UseFeed & Residual Ethanol Other FSI Exports

Source: USDA

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

Jan '15 Jan '16 Jan '17 Jan '18 Jan '19 Jan '20 Jan '21

Mil Gal/DayMil Gallons US Weekly Fuel EthanolStocks Production

Source: EIA

Data through April 23, 2021 USDA will release initial outlook for 2021/22 on May 12, 2021

Farm economics are robust on a global basis

31

Ric

e

Whe

at

Lent

ils

Cot

ton

Soyb

eans

Mai

ze

Rap

esee

d &

Mus

tard

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

India MSP Rates for Key Crops2020/21 % Change

1,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

Jan '17 Jan '18 Jan '19 Jan '20 Jan '21

Ringgits/MT Malaysian Palm OilDaily Close of Front Month Contract

Source: CRB


5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

20.0

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Jan '17 Jan '18 Jan '19 Jan '20 Jan '21

USD/BuReais/Bu Brazil Soybean PricesReais/Bu USD/Bu

Source: CEPEA, CRB (FX)

Source: Government of India; Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare

4

6

8

10

12

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0


$/bu$/bu U.S. and China Corn PricesDaily Close of Front Month Contract

CME - USA (left axis)DCE - China (right axis)

Source: CME; DCE

Grain price rally still being driven by nearby contracts, but new crop prices are also strong

32

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21

$/bu Corn Price

New Crop (Dec' 21 Contract)

Nearby

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17


$/bu Soybean Price

New Crop (Nov' 21 Contract)

Nearby

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5


$/bu Wheat Price

New Crop (Jul '21 Contract)

Nearby

Source: CMEData through April 30, 2021

93.5

64.7

86.0

75.7

86.4

77.5

88.2

77.4

91.9

75.0

97.3

77.2

95.4

76.8

90.6

83.3

88.0

82.7

94.0

83.5

90.2

90.2

88.9

89.2

89.7

76.1

90.8

83.1

92-9489-91

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

Corn Soybeans

Mil Acres U.S. Planted Acreage2007/08 - 2021/22F

Only rather optimistic acreage and yield scenarios in the U.S. could rebuild stocks to comfortable levels in 2021

33

USDA will release their initial outlook for 2021/22 on May 12, 2021

Corn 10-year Average 20/21F

21/22F Scenarios

1 2 3Planted Acreage (mil acres) 91.4 90.8 92.0 93.0 94.0

Yield (bu/acre) 161.5 172.0 172.0 180.0 182.0

Use (bil bu) 13.5 14.8 14.7 15.2 15.5

Exports (bil bu) 1.8 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.2

Carryout (bil bu) 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.4 1.6

Stocks-to-use ratio 11.8% 9.2% 7.1% 9.3% 10.6%

Soybean 10-year Average 20/21F

21/22F Scenarios

1 2 3Planted Acreage (mil acres) 81.1 83.1 89.0 90.0 91.0

Yield (bu/acre) 46.4 50.2 49.5 52.0 52.5

Use (bil bu) 3.7 4.6 4.3 4.6 4.6

Exports (bil bu) 1.7 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.3

Carryout (mil bu) 318 120 197 219 279

Stocks-to-use ratio 8.3% 2.6% 4.6% 4.8% 6.0%

Source: USDA & Mosaic10-year average = average 2010/11 – 2019/20

Source: USDA & Mosaic

Weather watch: U.S. drought (though ‘mostly’ sparing the Cornbelt); Early onset of Brazil’s dry season

34

Mato Grosso

30-day precipitation anomalies

Source: NOAA

May 2021 – Market Update

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