May 2017 - IAB Europe...2015 2016 Online advertising spend by format (€m)* Display Classifieds &...
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May 2017
Transcript of May 2017 - IAB Europe...2015 2016 Online advertising spend by format (€m)* Display Classifieds &...
May 2017
The data and charts shown in this report cannot be used without the
expressed permission of IAB Europe and IHS Markit
About the study
A meta-analysis of online ad spend in Europe
RATECARD
Campaigns x Ratecard
GROSS
Spend Billed
NET
Revenue Billed No Agency commissions
Data for 27 countries in Europe
• Austria
• Belarus
• Belgium
• Bulgaria
• Czech Republic
• Croatia
• Denmark
• Finland
• France
• Germany
• Greece
• Hungary
• Ireland
• Italy
• Netherlands
• Norway
• Poland
• Russia
• Romania
• Serbia
• Slovakia
• Slovenia
• Spain
• Sweden
• Switzerland
• Turkey
• UK
About the data
This market sizing is based on the following methods:
• Reported data from national IABs
• Estimates by national IABs based on local insight
• Estimates by national IABs in collaboration with IHS Markit
• Estimates & actuals by IHS Markit based on the IHS Advertising Intelligence Service & macro-economic research group
Big Picture
Europe: the value of online advertising in 2016
€41.9bn
Eurozone macroeconomic environment has stabilised after two recessions and holds firm despite political uncertainty
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2004
Q1
2004
Q3
2005
Q1
2005
Q3
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
2007
Q3
2008
Q1
2008
Q3
2009
Q1
2009
Q3
2010
Q1
2010
Q3
2011
Q1
2011
Q3
2012
Q1
2012
Q3
2013
Q1
2013
Q3
2014
Q1
2014
Q3
2015
Q1
2015
Q3
2016
Q1
2016
Q3
2017
Q1
Eurozone France Germany Italy Spain
GDP growth in Eurozone (%)
Source: IHS Markit © 2017 IHS Markit
Gro
wth
Online advertising grew by 12.3% in 2016
37.2
41.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2015 2016
Online advertising spend in Europe (€bn)
+12.3% like-for-like
€35.3bn net addition in 11 years of this study….
6.69.2
14.5 15.818.8
21.924.4
28.6
32.1
37.3
41.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total online ad spend: historical perspective
€35.3bn
*restated from €36bn as measured in 2015 due to methodology change at local IABs
…as online offsets losses of traditional media, establishing a new advertising market high for the first time since the 2009 recession
97.09 101.37 96.977.94 82.92 82.71 79.23 75.07 73.16 72.25 70.81
6.69.2 14.5
15.818.8 21.9 24.4 28.6 32.1 37.3 41.9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Traditional vs online advertising (€bn)
Other Media Online €112.6bn
Peak ‘traditional’
media
New market high (+€1.2bn)
Recessionary market low
Historical market high
Flat marketOnline growth offsets decline
”Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose”: consistency in growth rates over past five years despite fundamental market restructure
39.0%
58.6%
8.9%
18.6%16.5%
11.5% 11.9% 11.6% 13.0% 12.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Historical online advertising market growth
Maximum 1.6ppt variation in growth over the past 5 years
Online expands its lead over other media categories*
0.7
5.4
7.2
25.2
33.9
36.8
0.7
5.2
7.4
23.2
34.0
41.9
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Cinema
Radio
OOH
TV
Online
2016 2015
Ad spend by category in Europe in 2015 and 2016 (€bn)
Source: IHS Markit
*broadcaster online video accounted for in the ‘online’ category. TV is linear TV advertising only.
Markets
After four year period of growing concentration on top markets, the long-tail of smaller markets increases its overall share for the first time
57.3
%
56.9
%
58.8
%
60.4
%
58.0
%69.4
%
69.9
%
70.8
%
70.5
%
69.8
%77.9
%
78.2
%
78.8
%
78.4
%
77.7
%86.6
%
86.4
%
86.5
%
86.4
%
86.0
%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Share of European online advertising revenue by market group
Top 3 Top 5 Top 7 Top 10
934
946
1,604
1,622
1,689
2,295
2,640
4,175
5,950
14,181
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000
Switzerland
Belgium
Sweden
Spain
Netherlands
Italy
Russia
France
Germany
UK
Top 10 markets ranked (€m)
2016 2015
UK is 2.4x Germany
UK as big as next 3 markets combined
Top 8 in stable ranking, Belgium & Switzerland move up, UK maintains lead over other markets
Growth is mostly lead by smaller CEE markets
36.9
%
33.2
%
31.4
%
25.3
%
23.6
%
22.9
%
22.5
%
22.3
%
21.8
%
19.3
%
17.7
%
17.5
%
15.5
%
14.6
%
13.5
%
13.4
%
13.4
%
12.3
%
11.6
%
11.5
%
11.3
%
10.1
%
9.6%
7.0%
6.4%
6.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Ro
ma
nia
Slo
ven
ia
Irel
an
d
Cze
ch R
epu
bli
c
Slo
vaki
a
Bu
lga
ria
Hu
ng
ary
Sp
ain
Sw
eden
Ru
ssia
Cro
ati
a
Ser
bia
Be
laru
s
Po
lan
d
Tu
rkey UK
Sw
itze
rla
nd
Eu
rop
ean
Ave
rag
e
Au
stri
a
Gre
ece
Net
her
lan
ds
Ita
ly
Den
ma
rk
Fra
nce
Ger
ma
ny
Be
lgiu
m
Online advertising YoY growth 2016
Most advanced and least mature markets grow faster, tight grouping among Western European markets
Yea
r-o
n-y
ear
gro
wth
European average lines
online ad spend per capita
Bulgaria
Belarus
Croatia
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Romania
RussiaSerbia
Slovenia
Spain
AustriaBelgium
Sweden
SwitzerlandTurkey UK
Slovakia
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250
Three distinct patterns emergeYe
ar-
on
-yea
r g
row
th
European average lines
online ad spend per capita
Bulgaria
Belarus
Croatia
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Romania
RussiaSerbia
Slovenia
Spain
AustriaBelgium
Sweden
SwitzerlandTurkey UK
Slovakia
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250
What enables & hinders growth according to national IABs?
Drivers
• Programmatic & automation
• e- and m-commerce
• Rise of online video consumption
• Premium video inventory
• Improvement in ad quality
• Mobile-first advertiser mentality
• Social platforms
• Native
• E-Sports
• Consolidation
Hurdles
• Ad blocking
• Fraud
• Complexity of value chain
• Brand safety
• Privacy & regulation
• Measurement (esp. omniscreen video)
• Cross-funnel and cross-media attribution
• Turning data into insight
• Adapting desktop ads to mobile– High production costs
– Structural barriers
• Platform distribution & monetization
• Macroeconomic environment and adverse political conditions
Formats
€5bn added in total, over half of that coming from display
14,199 16,196
6,0616,510
16,932
19,116
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2015 2016
Online advertising spend by format
(€m)*
Display Classifieds & Directories Search
1,997
449
2,184
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Display Classifieds &
Directories
Search
Net additions in 2016 (€m)*
2015 2016 net additions
*Not like-for-like 2015 vs 2016 due to methodology changes in Croatia & Czech Republic. Growth rate cannot be calculated. Please use 12.3% like-for-like growth rate. Excludes small number of ‘other’ that was reported without format designation.
Display has been the fastest growing format for the past three years, but classifieds & directories and search experience growing vibrancy
15.2%
5.8%
10.8%11.6%
17.2%
4.9%
12.5% 13.0%14.1%
7.4%
12.9%12.3%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Display Classifieds & Directories Search Total
Online advertising growth rates by format
2014 2015 2016
Search maintains lead, but display increases share
34.1% 36.6% 36.6%47.3% 48.0% 47.1% 48.8% 49.2% 46.7% 46.7% 45.6%
18.3% 14.9% 18.9%
18.9% 20.7% 19.6% 18.5% 16.8%15.6% 16.4% 15.6%
47.6% 48.5% 44.5%33.8% 31.3% 33.3% 32.7% 34.0% 37.7% 36.9% 38.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Online advertising spend split by format
Search Classifieds & Directories Display
15 markets grow above European average, incl. 4 out of the top 10 markets by size, but spectrum of growth between markets is vast
45.4
%
41.3
%
38.1
%
29.3
%
29.0
%
28.6
%
24.7
%
24.1
%
22.0
%
20.4
%
19.6
%
17.8
%
17.6
%
15.5
%
14.6
%
14.1
%
13.0
%
11.3
%
11.3
%
11.0
%
10.7
%
9.6%
6.5%
6.5%
5.9%
3.1%
1.0%
-4.3
%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
Irel
an
d
Slo
ven
ia
Ro
ma
nia
Slo
vaki
a
Bu
lga
ria
Cze
ch R
epu
bli
c
Hu
ng
ary
Sp
ain
Cro
ati
a
Ru
ssia
Au
stri
a
Ser
bia
Po
lan
d
UK
Fra
nce
Eu
rop
ean
ave
rag
e
Sw
eden
Ita
ly
Net
her
lan
ds
Gre
ece
Tu
rkey
Den
ma
rk
Fin
lan
d
Ger
ma
ny
Be
lgiu
m
Sw
itze
rla
nd
No
rwa
y
Be
laru
s
Online display growth in 2016 by market*
incl. video. Desktop & Mobile.
Uneven picture across Europe as classifieds & directories benefit from consolidation, but shift to display-based ad model
20.5
%
19.3
%
19.0
%
18.0
%
17.0
%
16.4
%
16.3
%
10.6
%
10.6
%
9.9%
8.9%
8.0%
7.8%
7.5%
7.4%
6.2%
6.1%
6.1%
5.8%
3.6%
3.6%
2.0%
1.9%
1.6%
0.4%
-0.1
%
-0.4
%
-25.
7%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Hu
ng
ary
Cze
ch R
epu
bli
c
Ser
bia
Po
lan
d
Be
laru
s
Ita
ly
Slo
vaki
a
Ger
ma
ny
Ru
ssia
Sw
itze
rla
nd
Net
her
lan
ds
Cro
ati
a
UK
Den
ma
rk
Eu
rop
ean
ave
rag
e
Tu
rkey
Be
lgiu
m
Sp
ain
Bu
lga
ria
Gre
ece
Irel
an
d
Ro
ma
nia
Fra
nce
Fin
lan
d
Sw
eden
No
rwa
y
Au
stri
a
Slo
ven
ia
Online classifieds & directories growth in 2016 by market
19 markets saw double-digit growth in paid-for-search
44.9
%
42.9
%
36.1
%
28.0
%
25.1
%
21.4
%
21.0
%
20.8
%
20.7
%
20.1
%
19.2
%
19.2
%
16.0
%
15.0
%
14.4
%
12.9
%
12.4
%
12.2
%
12.0
%
10.1
%
9.0%
8.0%
7.6%
7.3%
6.5%
6.4%
5.0%
4.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%S
love
nia
Be
laru
s
Sw
eden
Ro
ma
nia
Irel
an
d
Ru
ssia
Hu
ng
ary
Sw
itze
rla
nd
Sp
ain
Tu
rkey
No
rwa
y
Cze
ch R
epu
bli
c
Cro
ati
a
Ser
bia UK
Eu
rop
ean
ave
rag
e
Slo
vaki
a
Net
her
lan
ds
Gre
ece
Den
ma
rk
Po
lan
d
Au
stri
a
Be
lgiu
m
Bu
lga
ria
Fin
lan
d
Ita
ly
Ger
ma
ny
Fra
nce
Search growth in 2016 by market
Mobile shares of format leap by nearly10 percentage points year-on-year
26.8%23.9% 24.7%
36.0%
32.2% 33.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Mobile share of display Mobile share of search Mobile share of total
Mobile share of online ad spend by format*
2015 2016*only markets which reported both mobile display & mobile search considered
A €3bn market, video now is a vital component of online display…
29.9
%
27.8
%
27.1
%
26.7
%
24.6
%
23.9
%
22.1
%
21.5
%
21.4
%
19.7
%
18.9
%
18.5
%
18.5
%
16.8
%
16.0
%
15.6
%
15.9
%
14.5
%
13.9
%
12.7
%
11.8
%
11.7
%
11.5
%
9.4%
9.0%
7.5%
3.1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Ita
ly
Sw
itze
rla
nd
Be
lgiu
m
Bu
lga
ria
Cro
ati
a
Irel
an
d
Sw
eden
Cze
ch R
epu
bli
c
Sp
ain
Fra
nce
Ger
ma
ny
Eu
rop
ean
ave
rag
e
Net
her
lan
ds
Tu
rkey UK
Au
stri
a
Fin
lan
d
Gre
ece
Ru
ssia
Slo
ven
ia
Po
lan
d
Den
ma
rk
Be
laru
s
No
rwa
y
Ser
bia
Hu
ng
ary
Ro
ma
nia
Video share of online display in 2016
Total: €2.9bn
…and growth is near universally double-digit within 3 clusters
122.
0%
102.
6%
100.
0%
91.8
%
80.0
%
48.0
%
46.0
%
33.6
%
27.6
%
26.8
%
26.3
%
26.0
%
25.0
%
24.6
%
21.4
%
19.6
%
19.4
%
17.4
%
16.5
%
15.2
%
13.9
%
13.9
%
11.9
%
11.7
%
11.0
%
10.4
%
1.2%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Slo
ven
ia
Ser
bia
Be
laru
s
Irel
an
d
Cro
ati
a
Den
ma
rk
Ita
ly
Tu
rkey
Sp
ain
Sw
eden
Au
stri
a
Net
her
lan
ds
Be
lgiu
m
Ro
ma
nia
E. a
vera
ge
Bu
lga
ria
Ger
ma
ny
Fin
lan
d
Cze
ch R
epu
bli
c
Ru
ssia
No
rwa
y
Sw
itze
rla
nd
UK
Fra
nce
Gre
ece
Hu
ng
ary
Po
lan
d
Online video advertising growth in 2016
growth leaders +/- 10ppt range of average challengers
Mobile display is highly concentrated, but 14 out of 22 countries measured grew faster than the market leader*
2,64
567
760
625
817
816
813
912
912
410
710
066 51 49 39 25 24 5 4 1.
40.
90.
5
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
UK
Ita
ly
No
rwa
y
Net
her
lan
ds
Tu
rkey
Irel
an
d
Cze
ch R
epu
blic
Den
ma
rk
Au
stri
a
Ro
ma
nia
Cro
ati
a
Mobile display advertising 2016 (€bn)
327.
0%
191.
3%
156.
3%
107.
7%
95.0
%
89.5
%
86.6
%
85.1
%
79.7
%
72.6
%
66.7
%
64.4
%
52.9
%
51.9
%
51.6
%
45.3
%
37.3
%
36.7
%
34.7
%
33.4
%
30.9
%
26.6
%
26.5
%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
Ser
bia
Ro
ma
nia
Tu
rkey
Fra
nce
Cro
ati
a
Irel
an
d
Ru
ssia
Bu
lga
ria
Cze
ch R
epu
blic
Hu
ng
ary
Bel
aru
s
Po
lan
d
Eu
rop
ean
ave
rag
e
Den
ma
rk
Ita
ly
UK
Sw
eden
Au
stri
a
Net
her
lan
ds
Fin
lan
d
Sp
ain
No
rwa
y
Ger
ma
ny
Mobile display advertising growth in 2016
*5 countries did not report mobile display
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
UK
Fra
nce
Ita
ly
Ger
ma
ny
No
rwa
y
Sw
eden
Net
her
lan
ds
Ru
ssia
Tu
rkey
Po
lan
d
Top mobile display
+2 ranks vs all display
Market leaders are not created equal: the top 10 ranking by display market size looks different in mobile and video
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
UK
Ita
ly
Ger
ma
ny
Fra
nce
Sp
ain
Bel
giu
m
Net
her
lan
ds
Sw
eden
Ru
ssia
Cze
ch R
epu
blic
Top video
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
UK
Ger
ma
ny
Fra
nce
Ita
ly
Sp
ain
Ru
ssia
Net
her
lan
ds
Sw
eden
Bel
giu
m
Po
lan
d
Top all display
Only in mobile Only in
mobile
+1 rank vs all display
-2 ranks vs all display
+1 rank vs all display
Only in video
-3 ranks vs all display
+2 ranks vs all display
+3 ranks vs all display
Not in top mobile
Not in top video
Not in top mobile
Desktop banner is decline as video and mobile power growth
-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
Irel
an
d
Slo
ven
ia
Ro
ma
nia
Slo
vaki
a
Bu
lga
ria
Cze
ch R
epu
blic
Hu
ng
ary
Sp
ain
Cro
ati
a
Ru
ssia
Au
stri
a
Ser
bia
Po
lan
d
UK
Fra
nce
Eu
rop
ean
ave
rag
e
Sw
eden
Ita
ly
Net
her
lan
ds
Gre
ece
Tu
rkey
Den
ma
rk
Fin
lan
d
Ger
ma
ny
Bel
giu
m
Sw
itze
rla
nd
No
rwa
y
Bel
aru
s
Display growth composition in 2016
all display
Desktop banner is decline as video and mobile power growth
-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
Irel
an
d
Slo
ven
ia
Ro
ma
nia
Slo
vaki
a
Bu
lga
ria
Cze
ch R
epu
blic
Hu
ng
ary
Sp
ain
Cro
ati
a
Ru
ssia
Au
stri
a
Ser
bia
Po
lan
d
UK
Fra
nce
Eu
rop
ean
ave
rag
e
Sw
eden
Ita
ly
Net
her
lan
ds
Gre
ece
Tu
rkey
Den
ma
rk
Fin
lan
d
Ger
ma
ny
Bel
giu
m
Sw
itze
rla
nd
No
rwa
y
Bel
aru
s
Display growth composition in 2016
all display excl. mobile
Desktop banner is decline as video and mobile power growth
-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
Irel
an
d
Slo
ven
ia
Ro
ma
nia
Slo
vaki
a
Bu
lga
ria
Cze
ch R
epu
blic
Hu
ng
ary
Sp
ain
Cro
ati
a
Ru
ssia
Au
stri
a
Ser
bia
Po
lan
d
UK
Fra
nce
Eu
rop
ean
ave
rag
e
Sw
eden
Ita
ly
Net
her
lan
ds
Gre
ece
Tu
rkey
Den
ma
rk
Fin
lan
d
Ger
ma
ny
Bel
giu
m
Sw
itze
rla
nd
No
rwa
y
Bel
aru
s
Display growth composition in 2016
all display excl. mobile excl. mobile & video
Outlook for 2017• Expect approximately +10% growth over 2016
• Concentration of growth among fewer players will accelerate
• Video will become the primary battleground for consumer attention
• Live video set to focus on sports and UGC
• E-Sports advertising is gaining traction
• Audio is increasingly attractive to marketers
• Mobile-first becomes AI-first (but promise & practice are far apart)
• Regulation will have a material impact on the future health of the market
Contact:
Alison Fennah – [email protected] Puffett – [email protected] Knapp – [email protected] (Jessie) Chen – [email protected]
Connect with us:@IABEurope IAB Europe
www.iabeurope.eu www.technology.ihs.com
@IHS4Tech
